Juan Soto Lauren Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Ranking Juan Soto and the Top 10 Hitters of the 2024-25 MLB Free-Agent Class

Kerry Miller

For the third consecutive offseason, one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball is going to make a jaw-dropping amount of money, with most anticipating Juan Soto's contract in free agency will have the highest present-day value in the history of the sport.

He was already destined for a long-term deal starting with a five, but after that 10th inning, ALCS-winning home run on Saturday, a six hardly feels out of the question.

He's far from the only hitter who could fetch a nine-figure contract this winter, though.

Projected contract size wasn't the primary driving force of our ranking of the top 10 free-agent hitters in this year's class. It's much more so rooted in who's the best hitter right now. However, it's hardly a coincidence that the estimated AAV generally increases as we wind our way from No. 10 to No. 1, considering the best hitters are worth the most on the open market.

Before we dive in, note that one player who won't show up in the top 10 is Marcell Ozuna. That's because there's about a 1,000 percent chance Atlanta will exercise its $16M club option to bring him back for one more year after he went for a combined 79 home runs and 204 RBI over the past two seasons.

If Atlanta inexplicably declines the option, though, Ozuna would slot in at No. 5 overall as easily the best DH on the board.

Honorable Mentions

Jurickson Profar Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Chicago Cubs

Bellinger has a $27.5M player option to return to the Cubs, after which he would have another $25M player option for 2026, should he exercise the 2025 year. And it's likely he just stays with the Cubs after what was a rather disappointing 2024 campaign on the heels of his big 2023 bounce back. Should he hit the open market in pursuit of a long-term deal, though, the 29-year-old with positional flexibility would be a relatively hot commodity.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

Goldy is a shell of what he used to be, going from a .981 OPS as an MVP in 2022 to an .810 mark last year and a by far career-worst .716 in 2024. He turned 37 in September and probably only has one, maybe two years left to give. But when news breaks of Goldschmidt signing a short-term contract with a team like Houston, Seattle or a reunion with Arizona, it will at least *feel* like a potential big deal.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Like Bellinger, it's likely that Hoskins just stays put. He has an $18M player option for 2025, and his first year back from a torn ACL was a sizable disappointment. He did hit 26 home runs, but an overall bWAR of negative-0.2 makes it hard to imagine he gets a multi-year deal at anything close to $20M per year.

Joc Pederson, DH, Arizona Diamondbacks

There's a decent chance he stays with Arizona on the $14M mutual option for next season. If not, surely someone would be interested in making Pederson the left-handed half of a DH platoon, considering he put up a .923 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.

Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres

The one guy in this tier who is surely headed for a pay bump, Profar made a grand total of $2.5M on his one-year deal with the Padres, providing an incredible amount of ROI from his team-best OPS of .839. He turns 32 in February and the 11-year veteran just set career-best marks in a whole bunch of different categories, so don't expect anything long term like a four-year, $70M deal here. But an exponential raise on a two-year, $30M contract could be in the cards.

10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees

Gleyber Torres Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .257/.330/.378, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, 1.8 bWAR

Career Stats: .265/.334/.441, 138 HR, 441 RBI, 53 SB, 16.1 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $21M ($7M AAV)

First things first, we need to address this laughable supposed market value for Gleyber Torres.

He just made $14.2M in this his final season of arbitration eligibility. It was the sixth-highest salary for an arbitration player in 2024, behind only Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Corbin Burnes and Max Fried; more than what Shane Bieber ($13.125M), Framber Valdez ($12.1M) or Kyle Tucker ($12M) got.

Before this season began, Spotrac had Torres' projected market value at seven years, $128.5M, or $18.4M per year.

While he didn't have a banner year in what may have been his final season with the Yankees, did I miss the part where one of his limbs fell off?

We seriously think this soon-to-be 28-year-old middle infielder with a career .774 OPS—the seventh-most valuable second baseman in baseball dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs—is about to take a more than 50 percent pay cut on a multiyear deal?

That David Fletcher and Brandon Drury are reasonable comps here?

Maybe he takes a one-year deal in the $15M range in hopes of re-establishing himself as someone worthy of a nine-figure deal. But between his age, past production and position scarcity, he just might get that $100M contract now.

At any rate, beyond him, Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim, the free agent pool at 2B/SS gets mighty bleak, mighty fast.

Doesn't hurt Torres' case that he finished strong, either. His overall numbers for 2024 were pretty 'blah,' but he hit .321 with five home runs over his final 31 games of the regular season before triple-slashing .297/.400/.432 between the ALDS and ALCS.

9. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox

Tyler O'Neill Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .241/.336/.511, 31 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB, 2.7 bWAR

Career Stats: .246/.322/.469, 109 HR, 278 RBI, 44 SB, 12.6 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $49M ($16.3M AAV)

Say this much for Tyler O'Neill: He had a strong walk year.

After playing a combined total of 168 games of mostly replacement-level baseball from 2022-23, O'Neill suddenly became a Kyle Schwarber-ish three true outcomes machine, either homering (31), walking (53) or striking out (159) in 51.4 percent of his plate appearances.

That's Schwarber-ish with actual value added on defense, we should add. O'Neill won Gold Gloves for his work in left field in both 2020 and 2021 and has been...not elite, but more than fine in the field in the three years since then.

He also hit 34 home runs in 2021 with the Cardinals when he finished top 10 in the NL MVP vote, so this surge of homers didn't just come out of nowhere.

O'Neill has a history of hitting well...

When available.

O'Neill has been all sorts of banged up over the past three years, playing in just two more games (281) than perpetually injured Byron Buxton (279) and six fewer games than Rhys Hoskins (287), who missed the entire 2023 campaign and 31 more contests this season.

He does play more often than Kris Bryant, Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon, but you do kind of have to assume he's going to miss chunks of time throughout his contract. That will likely keep him from getting paid like he arguably should be for slugging almost as well over the past four seasons (.483) as Manny Machado (.489) and better than Giancarlo Stanton (.472).

Three years at around $50M total could be a steal.

8. Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Christian Walker Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 2.6 bWAR

Career Stats: .250/.330/.463, 147 HR, 443 RBI, 15.1 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $66M ($22M AAV)

Most of the players on this list are pretty young.

Teoscar Hernández is 32, but Juan Soto balances him out, putting the average age of the nine players in our top 10 not named Christian Walker at 29 years, 3 months.

And then there's Walker, who has been playing at an impressively high level over the past three seasons, amassing 95 home runs and quite possibly three straight Gold Gloves—but who turns 34 in March.

It's not quite as concerning as when José Abreu turned 36 before the first season of his disastrous three-year, $58.5M deal with Houston, and we did just have Paul Goldschmidt win an MVP in 2022 in his age-34 season.

Let's just say, though, that slugging first basemen rapidly declining at the age of 33 or 34 isn't particularly uncommon—See: Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, Adrián González, Todd Helton, Albert Pujols and plenty of others—and it will be interesting to see if anyone is willing to do three fully guaranteed years at north of $20M apiece for Walker.

Seems like a safe assumption it'll happen, though, with Houston, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis and both New York clubs needing to address their first-base situation this offseason. And if his next three seasons are anything like his last three, Walker would be worth all that and then some.

7. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Teoscar Hernandez Harry How/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .272/.339/.501, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB, 4.3 bWAR

Career Stats: .263/.320/.488, 192 HR, 572 RBI, 54 SB, 17.1 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $71M ($23.7M AAV)

Teoscar Hernández had himself one heck of a bounce-back year.

He was fine last year with Seattle, going for 26 home runs and 93 RBI. However, he averaged more than 5.5 strikeouts per walk while posting a .741 OPS that was a far cry from sitting at .882 as a fringe AL MVP candidate between 2020 and 2021.

He got that OPS back up to .840 this year, though, leading the non-Ohtani portion of the Dodgers roster in a ton of categories, including slugging percentage. He also set a new career best for total bases in a season, with 32 doubles to go along with his 33 home runs.

Will he even get a raise, though?

As previously noted, "Teo" is already 32, and his defense as a corner outfielder is only marginally less problematic than that of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. The Dodgers posted the best record in baseball even with Hernández starting 154 games either in left or right, but it wouldn't be a surprise if his next employer primarily deploys him as a DH.

Either way, he should get a multiyear deal with a salary somewhere in the ballpark of the $23.5M he made for this season.

6. Ha-Seong Kim, IF, San Diego Padres

Ha-Seong Kim Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .233/.330/.370, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 22 SB, 2.6 bWAR

Career Stats: .242/.326/.380, 47 HR, 200 RBI, 78 SB, 15.3 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $49M ($12.25M AAV)

It should be noted that the Padres and Ha-Seong Kim have a mutual option for $7M in 2025. However, there's virtually no chance he agrees to his side of that one, even after a shoulder injury kept him out for the final six weeks (and playoffs) of what was a less productive year than usual.

Kim was one of just 12 players worth at least 4.9 bWAR in each of 2022 and 2023, joining Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, José Ramírez, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Julio Rodríguez, Marcus Semien, Austin Riley, Andrés Giménez and Kyle Tucker on that list of MLB's who's whos.

Even in a down year where he missed 41 games, he was still easily one of San Diego's 10 most valuable players in 2024.

So, yeah, he can do a whole lot better than a one-year, $7M deal.

Kim's career OPS of .706 might concern teams every bit as much as his WAR impresses them, but he shouldn't have any trouble getting a 4+ year, eight-figure AAV deal.

Atlanta would be a fantastic roster fit for him. The Yankees, Giants and at least 10 other teams who are just scraping by at one of their middle infield spots would also love to add a player of Kim's caliber.

5. Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Anthony Santander Patrick Smith/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .235/.308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 2.9 bWAR

Career Stats: .246/.307/.469, 155 HR, 435 RBI, 11.1 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 5 years, $87M ($17.4M AAV)

Over the past decade, there have now been six cases of a player hitting at least 44 home runs in his walk year: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Marcus Semien, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Anthony Santander.

Oddly enough, half of them played for the Baltimore Orioles.

And, thus far, those are the ones that didn't pan out so well.

Davis was the big disaster, with the O's still painfully paying off that $161M contract for another decade-plus. Trumbo also got a three-year, $37.5M deal with the Orioles the winter after he hit 47 home runs for them, and was worth a negative bWAR for those three years.

Maybe they hang onto Santander, though, and this is the one that finally produces wins above replacement?

After all, we've witnessed him regularly hitting home runs for a while now. Santander's mark of 105 since the beginning of 2022 is good for sixth-best in the majors, with overall numbers not substantially different from what Pete Alonso has given the New York Mets during the same time.

However, given that his career on-base percentage is barely .300, he almost never steals bases and his value "added" on defense is a tough pill to swallow, a five-year, $87M deal for this slugger sounds about right. Maybe even slightly high.

4. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

Pete Alonso Harry How/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 2.6 bWAR

Career Stats: .249/.339/.514, 226 HR, 586 RBI, 19.8 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $174M ($29M AAV)

While Santander is on a short list of players in the past decade to hit 44 home runs in a walk year, Pete Alonso is one of just 21 players in MLB history with both a 50 HR season and at least three 40 HR seasons.

It's a long list, but it's worth noting that the other 20 are: José Bautista, Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Howard, Aaron Judge, Ralph Kiner, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Johnny Mize, Shohei Ohtani, David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome and Greg Vaughn.

And since Alonso's career began in 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs (by a 232 to 226 margin) and no one has driven in more runs. (Only Matt Olson is even all that close to Alonso with a mark of 584.)

Needless to say, sluggers like the Polar Bear neither grow on trees nor become available in free agency often.

It feels like we're headed for a scenario where one of the New York teams gives Juan Soto at least $500M, followed by the other New York team giving Alonso somewhere around $200M. However, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco and the Chicago Cubs could all factor into the bidding war for this powerful first baseman.

3. Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Willy Adames Aaron Gash/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .251/.331/.462, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB, 3.1 bWAR

Career Stats: .248/.322/.444, 150 HR, 472 RBI, 51 SB, 21.5 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $152M ($25.3M AAV)

In what is pretty well certain to have been his final season in Milwaukee, Willy Adames set personal-best marks in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI and stolen bases.

Decent timing for a career year, eh?

Adames made $12.25 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but the expectation is that the slugging shortstop's salary will more than double on a long-term deal.

How long, exactly, remains to be seen, though.

Adames turned 29 in September, making him almost a full year younger than Xander Bogaerts was and a few months younger than Trea Turner was when both of those shortstops signed their 11-year contracts two winters ago.

Now, that isn't to say Adames is as valuable as those guys were. Bogaerts had received MVP votes in each of the five seasons leading up to his free agency, worth a combined total of 23.7 bWAR in that half-decade. Turner received MVP votes in each of his final three seasons before signing with the Phillies and was worth 23.1 bWAR from 2018-22.

Adames' mark of 16.5 bWAR over the past five years is impressive, but the zero-time All-Star hasn't been that close to those predecessors.

Then again, Turner and Bogaerts signed their megadeals in the same offseason that Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson hit free agency, while if you want to sign a shortstop this winter who can hit 15 home runs—let alone 30 of them—on an annual basis for the next half-decade, it's Adames or bust.

That scarcity might be the key to him getting an eight-year or nine-year deal worth $200 million or more if it turns into a bidding war among the Dodgers, Giants, Braves and Blue Jays.

2. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros

Alex Bregman Alex Bierens de Haan/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 4.1 bWAR

Career Stats: .272/.366/.483, 191 HR, 663 RBI, 39.6 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $120M ($30M AAV)

From 2018-23, Alex Bregman was the best in the business in terms of BB/K ratio. With 462 walks drawn to 411 strikeouts, his 1.12 ratio ranked No. 1, narrowly ahead of Juan Soto (1.11) with Luis Arraez (1.04) the only other player who had more walks than whiffs.

But that all went out the window this season with Bregman striking out nearly twice as many times (86) as he walked (44).

The K rate isn't the concerning part. The 86 represents 13.6 percent of plate appearances, which is ever so slightly higher than his career rate of 13.4 percent.

The steep decline in walk rate was strange, though, and contributed to Bregman posting the lowest OPS of his career (.768).

He also had to recover from yet another slow start.

In 2022, Bregman had a .694 OPS with six home runs through 61 games before going .902 and 17, respectively, the rest of the way. The following year, it was a .643 OPS with four home runs through 40 games, followed by .856 and 21 over the next 121 contests. This season, he had a brutal .534 OPS with one home run through 37 games before righting the ship and going .845 and 25, respectively, in his last 108 games.

Even with those rough runs through April and parts of May, Bregman posted a bWAR of 4.0 or greater for the sixth time in his career and is, by a laughable margin, the most desirable third baseman on the market this year.

Matt Chapman signed a six-year, $151M extension in early September, and Bregman should fare a good bit better than that.

Not sure why Spotrac projects the third baseman who turns 31 next March for merely a four-year deal when Chapman—who turns 32 in April—got six years.

It won't be an 11-year, Manny Machado type of contract, but Bregman should easily fetch six years, $180M, if not seven years at north of $200 million.

1. Juan Soto, RF, New York Yankees

Juan Soto Nick Cammett/Getty Images

2024 Stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 7 SB, 7.9 bWAR

Career Stats: .285/.421/.532, 201 HR, 592 RBI, 57 SB, 36.4 bWAR

Spotrac Market Value: 14 years, $514M ($36.7M AAV)

Aaron Judge hitting free agency two years ago was huge.

The bidding war for Shohei Ohtani was huger.

But what's about to go down with Juan Soto is maybe the biggest thing to ever happen in MLB free agency.

That isn't to say Soto is better than Judge or Ohtani.

(He might be.)

He is a whole heck of a lot younger, though.

Judge had already completed his age-30 season by the time the Yankees gave him $360 million. Ohtani was less than seven months shy of turning 30 when he got his $700 million deal. And then there's Soto, who debuted with the Nationals at the age of 19 and who will turn 26 on Friday.

The teams ready to offer Soto more than half a billion dollars are expecting to get a solid seven or eight years of him still in his prime, while hoping he's still reasonably productive over the latter half of a contract likely to run until he turns 40.

For what it's worth, Joey Votto—who was MLB's on-base percentage king until he entered the latter half of his 30s and Soto ascended to the throne—had a .436 OBP from his age-26 through age-34 seasons, winning one MVP and receiving MVP votes in six of the other eight years.

That's pretty much the baseline of expectations for the next decade of Soto. Wouldn't be surprising if he exceeds that and ends up being worth every penny of what should be around a $40M salary.

   

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