In what has now been three decades worth of the wild-card era in Major League Baseball, there are only seven players who have led the majors in home runs in one year and led the majors in RBI in another year: Aaron Judge, Álex Rodríguez, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Sammy Sosa and Pete Alonso.

Suffice it to say, sluggers like the Polar Bear don't come available in free agency very often, and they don't come very cheap, either.

If he does end up leaving the Mets after they were defeated in six games by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, it'll take some getting used to seeing him in different threads. Between the whole Playoff Pumpkin thing and all those taters he has mashed in Home Run Derbies over the years, he has been perhaps the face of this franchise even more than its $341 million man, Francisco Lindor.

So, do the Mets top the list of candidates to sign Alonso?

And who are the biggest threats to turn the home run King of Queens into their own hometown hero?

Let's dig into what it figures to cost to acquire Alonso before ranking the 10 teams most likely to get it done.

What Will Pete Alonso Be Worth in Free Agency?

Pete Alonso turns 30 in December. He made $20.5M in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and he has been one of the preeminent sluggers in baseball with 226 home runs since his arrival in 2019.

Only Aaron Judge (232) has more dingers during that time, and we're just two years removed from Judge hitting free agency at the age of 30, fresh off a final-year-of-arbitration salary ($19M) a bit below what Alonso got.

Don't expect Alonso to come anywhere close to matching Judge's $360M contract, though. Because while Judge had a god-tier walk year with 62 home runs en route to an MVP trophy, Alonso's possible final year in New York was much less memorable—monumental ninth-inning home run off Devin Williams in the wild-card round, notwithstanding.

The Polar Bear didn't have a bad year by any means. He still hit 34 home runs, good for 12th-best in the majors. But after entering 2024, averaging 15.2 plate appearances per home run for his career, that rate was 20.4 this year en route to the lowest OPS of his career (.788).

Spotrac puts Alonso's market value at six years, $174M, which feels about right.

There were reports earlier this season that Alonso turned down a seven-year, $158M extension offer from the Mets in June 2023 (New York Post's Joel Sherman) and that he'll be seeking at least a $200M contract this winter (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale).

An eight-year, $226M deal would be a cool nod to his career home run total.

Let's just say we don't expect Tampa Bay or Oakland to get involved in the bidding, though. Alonso should be able to get at least six years at around $30M apiece.

Honorable Mentions

Arizona Diamondbacks

With both Christian Walker and Josh Bell slated for free agency, the Diamondbacks need to do something about their first-base situation. But re-signing Walker on something like a three-year, $70M deal seems way more likely than Arizona investing a ton of money in Alonso, especially considering they are recovering from making Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez their highest-paid players in 2024.

St. Louis Cardinals

See: Diamondbacks, Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt hitting free agency means an opening at first base for the Cardinals. However, they might be content to let Alec Burleson set up shop there after he split his 152 games between DH, LF, RF and 1B in 2024. Maybe 'content' isn't the right word, but 'content enough' with that solution to avoid pursuing Alonso all that seriously, particularly with Sonny Gray's salary increasing by $15M in 2025 and by another $10M the following year.

Baltimore Orioles

This would be a weird spot for Baltimore to make its first legitimate splash into free agency since the last time it painfully decided to invest nine figures in a slugging first baseman (Chris Davis). They still have Ryan Mountcastle under team control for two more years, and their two best prospects (Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo) have both spent quite a bit of time playing first base. But sometimes you make strange decisions when you score one run in two games in the process of getting knocked out of the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels

Never rule out Arte Moreno and the Angels when the name of the game is 'throwing outrageous amounts of money at a free agent slugger in his early 30s.' The Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon deals all turned out to be disasters for the Halos, but that just means they're due for one to pan out, right? Considering they're nowhere close to contention and still owe Rendon around $75M, though, they'll probably pass on Alonso and give 2023 first-round pick Nolan Schanuel at least another year or two to prove himself as an everyday first baseman.

Nos. 10-9: Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies

10. Washington Nationals (71-91)

Current 1B Situation: Juan Yepez and Andrés Chaparro, both under team control for at least four more years

While Joey Meneses initially looked like a diamond in the rough when the Nationals called him up in 2022 to take Juan Soto's spot on the roster, it has become clear over the past two seasons that he's not the answer at first base. Neither Yepez nor Chaparro has established himself as a legitimate long-term option, either.

After four consecutive offseasons spending less than $30M on free agents, though, is Washington ready to invest around $200M in one player? And, if so, isn't it much more likely to be for a pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried than a first baseman?

If they do sign Alonso, at least he has had a lot of success there, batting .304 with 15 home runs in 48 career games played at Nationals Park.

9. Colorado Rockies (61-101)

Current 1B Situation: Michael Toglia, under team control through 2029

Speaking of "success in that venue," Alonso has triple-slashed .377/.424/.754 with six home runs in 15 career games at Coors Field.

And the Rockies sure could use him.

Over the past two seasons, no one's first-base situation has been more of an outright disaster than Colorado's. Houston's José Abreu signing ended up being horrific, but even the Astros' "as 1B" fWAR of negative-1.5 for 2023-24 was better than the negative-2.7 mark the Rockies put up.

Kris Bryant spent some time there in each season, but nowhere near enough to be counted on as a real candidate for everyday work at first base.

Right now, it's pretty much Toglia or bust, and he has a .692 OPS in 192 career games played with Colorado.

Would Alonso be enough to fix a team that has suffered at least 100 losses in back-to-back years?

Almost certainly not.

It's a start, though. And it'd be fun as hell to watch him try to hit 70 home runs next year for the thin-aired franchise that somehow has never had a 50-HR season.

Nos. 8-7: San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox

8. San Diego Padres (93-69)

Current 1B Situation: Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez

One offseason removed from trading away Juan Soto because they knew they weren't going to be able to sign him to a long-term deal, can the Padres afford to put yet another nine-figure contract on their roster?

They have each of Manny Machado ($350M), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340M) and Xander Bogaerts ($280M) on massive deals, already putting them on the hook for over $100M in each year through 2033. They also have not-insignificant contracts with Yu Darvish ($108M), Joe Musgrove ($100M) and Jake Cronenworth ($80M).

Just for those six, they're looking at $115.6M in 2025. Add in the $10M due to Robert Suarez and Spotrac's arbitration estimates of $13.7M for Luis Arraez, $13M for Dylan Cease and $10.7M for Michael King, and you're up to $163M for 10 players...for a team whose 2024 Opening Day payroll for the entire roster was $162M.

The Padres keep popping up as a top candidate to sign the Polar Bear, but I just don't see it. If they're throwing a nine-figure contract at anyone, it ought to be an extension for Jackson Merrill.

7. Boston Red Sox (81-81)

Current 1B Situation: Triston Casas

From 2000-2020, the Red Sox had a top-five Opening Day payroll in 20 out of 21 years, the lone exception coming in 2003 when they fell about $3.5M shy of fifth place.

They've landed at No. 12 in each of the past two years, though, doing basically nothing this past offseason aside from adding two pitchers (Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks) who ended up not pitching at all in 2024. And they are presently 17th in 2025 payroll—which doesn't include estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players—but the Red Sox don't have anyone projected for more than $4.1M.

Are they seriously going to remain a middle-of-the-road franchise as far as spending is concerned? Or are they gearing up for a major offseason?

If it's the latter, one would have to assume that pitching will be their primary focus after they allowed the eighth-most runs in the majors in 2024. But they do have a glaring need for right-handed bats who can hit towering flies over the Green Monster. Only five of their 13 players who hit at least four home runs in 2024 were righties, and the leader of the bunch (Tyler O'Neill) is now a free agent.

Maybe they could sign Alonso and then trade Casas for some pitching help?

Nos. 6-5: San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees

6. San Francisco Giants (80-82)

Current 1B Situation: LaMonte Wade Jr., Wilmer Flores and, eventually, Bryce Eldridge

For all the talk of the Giants whiffing/passing on the likes of Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in recent offseasons, they did spend substantially more this past winter than every other team except for the Dodgers, agreeing to more than $320M worth of contracts in free agency for Jung Hoo Lee, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and more.

Yet, even after re-upping with Chapman on a $151M extension last month, they could find the room in the budget to add Alonso, thanks to trading away Jorge Soler in July, Michael Conforto's $18M salary coming off the books and Snell inevitably declining his player option for next season.

Do they even want or need to add Alonso, though?

Both Wade and Flores are in their final year before hitting free agency, but 2023 first-round pick Eldridge might be the answer sooner rather than later. Save for Kansas City's 2024 No. 6 overall pick Jac Caglianone, Eldridge is the highest-rated first base prospect, per MLB.com. He just turned 20 this month and isn't likely to crack the 2025 Opening Day roster, but he'll probably be ready by the following spring.

That's enough to keep the Giants out of the top five here, even though it's otherwise a logical fit for a franchise that has spent the past two decades searching for (and routinely getting outbid on) a legitimate slugger.

5. New York Yankees (94-68)

Current 1B Situation: Ben Rice, Jon Berti, Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu

Between Anthony Rizzo's poor start and his subsequent 2.5-month stint on the IL, first base became something of an "all hands on deck" situation for the Yankees. And with it looking highly unlikely that they'll exercise their $17M club option to bring Rizzo back in 2025, finding a solution at first base is certainly part of New York's winter to-do list.

Whether they're going to go big for Alonso, though, probably hinges on whether they're able to re-sign Juan Soto—which sure does seem like the most likely outcome.

What if they call Gerrit Cole's bluff and let him walk, though?

We've been assuming for most of the season that Cole will opt out of the final four years on his contract to force the Yankees to add another $36M season to the end of the deal. But if he triggers the opt out, it basically becomes a question of whether they want five years of 34-year-old Cole for $180M or six years of 30-year-old Alonso for the same price.

Should they go the latter route, it sure would be a terrifying few years with Alonso, Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the heart of the order, not to mention Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jasson Domínguez.

No. 4: Chicago Cubs

2024 Record: 83-79

Current 1B Situation: Michael Busch and Cody Bellinger

It's no secret that the Cubs were among the teams trying to trade for Alonso ahead of last year's deadline, and they've been linked on a regular basis ever since.

It's not hard to see why, either. His power would play wonderfully in Wrigley Field, where he already has eight home runs in just 74 career plate appearances.

What about Michael Busch, though?

Initial returns on Chicago's acquisition of Busch last winter were solid. The rookie ranked second on the team with 21 home runs, posting a .775 OPS while also providing good glovework at first base.

But was he "Thanks but no thanks, Polar Bear, we're all set now" good?

Even if the Cubs now view Busch as a cornerstone of the franchise, it doesn't have to be at first base.

He was predominantly a second baseman prior to this season and also spent a fair amount of time at third base in 2023, though struggled mightily in the fielding percentage department there. They could try him again at the hot corner, or they could put Nico Hoerner on the trade block to open a spot for Busch.

That latter route's a bit drastic, as Hoerner has provided them with a ton of value over the past three years, both with his glove and with his speed on the basepaths.

If that's the cost of acquiring Alonso, though, perhaps they pursue it. (Especially if they're able to trade Hoerner for a solid catcher or a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter.)

The real X-factor, though, is Cody Bellinger, who holds a player option for next season and a player option for 2026.

If he elects free agency, not only does that shave $25M off the Cubs' 2025 payroll, but it opens up the possibility of Busch or Alonso becoming the full-time DH with Seiya Suzuki moving back to right field. If Bellinger opts in, though, Alonso to Wrigley doesn't make quite as much sense.

No. 3: Houston Astros

2024 Record: 88-73

Current 1B Situation: Jon Singleton and Victor Caratini/Yainer Diaz

Similar to the Yankees with Soto, Houston's willingness/ability to invest in Alonso likely hinges on whether it manages to re-sign its marquee free agent.

That isn't to say there's a 100 percent chance the Astros will sign either Alonso or Alex Bregman, nor is there exactly a zero percent chance they sign them both, as they do presently have gaping holes at both corner infield spots.

But let's talk numbers.

In Jose Altuve ($32.5M), Josh Hader ($19M), Lance McCullers Jr. ($17.7M), Yordan Alvarez ($15.8M), Ryan Pressly ($14M), Cristian Javier ($10.4M), Victor Caratini ($6M) and the $19.5M they still owe José Abreu, the Astros are already at $134.9M for next season, plus somewhere around another $35M combined for the final arbitration-eligible years of Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker.

Even if the rest of the roster is on league-minimum salaries—Jeremy Peña, Mauricio Dubón and several others are certainly getting more than $800k, but just go with it—you're looking at about $184M, sans Alonso or Bregman.

Well, they entered 2024 with a $236M payroll after spending each of the previous three years right around that $184M mark. Thus, they probably have room for one or the other.

Unless they're particularly concerned about Bregman's sudden sharp decline in walk rate, they'll probably prioritize keeping the third baseman over bringing in the first baseman. But we shall see.

No. 2: Seattle Mariners

2024 Record: 85-77

Current 1B Situation: Rookie Tyler Locklear and utilitymen Luke Raley and Dylan Moore

If money is no object and we're solely talking about who most needs to add a slugger at first base the caliber of Pete Alonso, Seattle perhaps indisputably tops that list.

The Mariners kicked Ty France to the curb this past summer, after which they started five different players—Raley, Locklear, Moore, Justin Turner and Jason Vosler—at first base in the span of nine games.

Of the bunch, Raley was the most productive in 2024 and is under team control through 2028. However, he's also basically unplayable against left-handed pitchers with a career OPS of .575, which is why they platooned him and Turner for the vast majority of the final two months of the season.

Notably, Seattle's dormant offense did finally come to life in September, so maybe they go the budget route, pulling at that thread with a season-long 1B platoon of Raley (.830 OPS vs. RHP in 2024) and Moore (.762 OPS vs. LHP in 2024), or maybe Locklear in Moore's place if they think he's ready after some rough returns in 2024.

They could also go back to the Tampa Bay well and swing a deal for Yandy Díaz (career .895 OPS vs. LHP), with plans of making him the primary 1B and platooning Raley and Mitch Garver at DH.

Or they could just spend big on a free agent like they previously did on Robinson Canó and Robbie Ray in hopes that, gosh darn it, the third time's the charm.

On top of the roughly $100M in known salaries already on the books for next season, the M's do have some serious arbitration numbers to keep in mind. Spotrac puts Randy Arozarena's estimated cost at $11.5M, Logan Gilbert at $8.3M and each of George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Josh Rojas and Luis Urias in the $4M-$6M range. Even assuming they'll decline Jorge Polanco's $12M club option, they're already looking at an Opening Day payroll a good bit above the $135M-$140M mark they've been at for the past two years.

But, man, they owe it to that starting rotation to bring in another slugger, and they might as well lock in a $30M per year slugger now, basically pre-spending the money that will come available after next season when Mitch Haniger ($17.5M) and Mitch Garver ($12.5M) are out of the picture.

Sure would be neat of them to get Alonso, considering Seattle's list of first basemen over the past two decades is about as depressing as the Cleveland Browns' list of starting quarterbacks. Per FanGraphs, France provided the most value of the bunch, and M's fans were ready to help him clear out his locker a few months ago.

No. 1: New York Mets

2024 Record: 89-73

Current 1B Situation: Pete Alonso, Pete Alonso and Pete Alonso

Alonso started 159 games at first base for the Mets this season. The only players who logged more innings at one position in 2024 than his 1,412.1 were Atlanta's Matt Olson (1,443.1) who started all 162 games at first base and the Yankees' Anthony Volpe (1,416.2) at shortstop.

So, if they don't re-sign him, they do need to figure something else out.

Now, it's entirely possible that 'something' is letting Alonso walk, giving Juan Soto $500M, moving this year's breakout star Mark Vientos from third base to first base—where he did play quite a bit in the minors and made two starts for the Mets this season—and more or less hoping for the best with Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and/or Luisangel Acuña at third base.

If signing Soto isn't feasible, they could still feel alright in moving on from Alonso by inking Alex Bregman to play third base, shifting Vientos to first and perhaps landing one of the available aces like Corbin Burnes.

The path of least resistance, though, is simply re-signing Alonso and enjoying the show as he absolutely runs away with the franchise record for career home runs. (He's currently just 26 behind Darryl Strawberry with 252 atop that list.)

It really just hinges upon how confident they are they can get Soto. Because while signing both would be excessive even by Steve Cohen's standards, they've clearly been setting themselves up over the past 15 months to do some serious spending this offseason.

The fact that they haven't already gotten an extension done isn't of any particular concern. He's been a major factor during their postseason run, and the Polar Bear staying in Queens seems infinitely more likely than it did five months ago.