And then there were two.

An exciting and record-breaking WNBA season is nearing its end, and boy do we have one heck of a Finals matchup to close with.

The New York Liberty, fresh off avenging last season's Finals loss to the Las Vegas Aces, now find themselves three wins away from the first title in franchise history. They've been the best team in the WNBA this season: best record (32-8), best offense (107.0 offensive rating), best net rating (plus-11.7), and an elite defense (95.3 defensive rating, 3rd) that can size up or down and still suffocate you in the half-court.

Their opponent just happens to be the team they've struggled with the most this season: the Minnesota Lynx.

The Lynx are no strangers to championships; they've won four titles under head coach Cheryl Reeve. They've put together a special unit this season, with versatility at the forefront of their success. No team moves the ball quite like they do; funny enough, only the Liberty come close (more on that shortly). Their second-ranked defense has been the surprise of the season. It's a do-anything group headlined by a do-everything superstar.

While the Lynx didn't quite have the regular-season success of the Liberty (30-10, 4th in offense, 2nd in defense, 3rd in net rating), they did give the Liberty fits. They were the only team to beat the Liberty twice during the regular season—three times if we include the Commissioner's Cup championship game, an outing that technically doesn't count toward the regular-season standings and stats.

If you're a hoops junkie, this is the matchup for you. Two versatile groups led by versatile superstars, put in great positions on both ends by a pair of smart and creative coaches.

One might say this matchup is Unrivaled in its basketball appeal.

(I'm not sorry.)

Let's get into some predictions!

The Lynx and Liberty Will Set a New Record for Combined Assists in a Finals Game

The New York Liberty recorded an assist on 75 percent of their made baskets during the 2023 regular season. Not only was that a WNBA record, but the feat was even more impressive considering it was year one of the Liberty's star-studded build. It usually takes time for chemistry to come together, so having that kind of ball movement was rare.

Funny enough, that record lasted for all of one (1) season.

The Minnesota Lynx took that crown this season, recording an assist on 76.4 percent of their made baskets. They didn't have the same type of offseason overhaul as last season's Liberty, but adding a pair of non-traditional playmakers like Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith into the mix doesn't usually end in record-setting ball movement this early.

This sets the stage for at least one game of high level offense combined with teach-your-children unselfishness between the two squads.

The single-game Finals record for combined assists is 62, set by the Seattle Storm (33) and Las Vegas Aces (29) in Game 2 of their 2020 matchup. It's the only 60-assist game in Finals history to this point, and a rare one where both the Storm (82.5 percent) and Aces (74.3 percent) assisted on over 70 percent of their made baskets.

With the firepower and general unselfishness the Liberty and Lynx have, I believe they'll join the 60-club and set a new record at some point in this series.

Breanna Stewart Will Lead the Series in Steals and Blocks

Funny enough, Stewart and Collier each had five steals and four blocks during the regular season matchups, leading their teams in each category. Collier takes the edge once you factor in the Commissioner's Cup title game (three steals, one block in that one), for those who wanted to keep track at home.

If this postseason is any indication—heck, if the Aces series was any indication—Stewart will have a ton on her plate defensively.

She's already rangy and skilled enough to be a disruptive force all over the floor. She, along with Collier, was a part of the small group of players that averaged at least one block and one steal during the regular season. What makes Stewart such a fun and devastating defender is that she can (and likely will) be deployed everywhere.

You can bet your bottom dollar she'll spend a ton of time on Collier. But she'll likely get the Smith matchup on occasion to either switch actions involving her, or act as a roamer when she's spaced. Like we saw in Stewart's masterful Game 4 performance against the Aces, she may flat-out receive guard assignments at random.

One of the most impactful adjustments we saw in that game was Stewart's deployment on Kelsey Plum. It gave shades of Draymond Green on Jalen Brunson during the 2022 Western Conference Finals, or Green on Jaylen Brown in the following round: We know you like to drive, and we understand how important your drives are to your team's offense, so we're taking this off the table.

Do not be surprised if she's the primary defender on Courtney Williams or McBride for random spells in an effort to disrupt their rhythm

Because Stewart is so good, so active, and so hard to get away from, I anticipate she'll rack up the most defensive numbers in this series.

Napheesa Collier Will Continue Her 25-10 Streak

I'm not sure how fair it is to press the under-the-radar button on Collier's postseason—the Lynx are in the Finals, for crying out loud—but I'd like to take a step back and lay some of the basic numbers out there.

She's averaging 27.1 points, the second-highest scoring average in postseason history (min. 5 games played). The efficiency—56.6 percent on twos, 45 percent on threes, 87.9 percent from the line--has been absurd, frankly. Toss in the 9.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.0 blocks she's racking up, and we are in the midst of one of the most dominant playoff runs in WNBA history.

Speaking of WNBA history: Collier became the first player in postseason history to achieve three straight 25-point, 10-rebound games with her 27-and-11 performance in Tuesday's series-clinching win.

It'll be a tall order for Collier to keep that streak going against the Liberty, one of the biggest and best defenses in the league headlined by her positional foe in Breanna Stewart.

Collier only averaged 16.0 points against the Liberty during their regular-season meetings, tied for the lowest mark against any opponent (Chicago Sky). On the other hand, her 11.7 rebounds tied her highest mark against any opponent (Seattle Storm).

Collier's only 20-point outing against the Liberty came in the Commissioner's Cup championship game (21), though she only grabbed six rebounds in that one.

But man, it's hard to bet against Collier right now. She's just been so good this entire postseason run, and obviously the 25-10 streak speaks for itself.

A fun fact I'll close with, courtesy of Second Spectrum: Collier shot a blistering 63.3 percent from the field with Alyssa Thomas as her closest defender during the series—and that went up to 78.8 percent during the 25-10 streak.

Sabrina Ionescu Will Lead a Successful Pick-and-Roll Attack

This doesn't seem bold on the surface. Ionescu has been one of the most dynamic guards in the league this year, able to stretch teams thin with a blend of from-the-parking-lot range and creative playmaking. Her growth inside the arc, particularly the reintroduction of her floater, has made her even more of a threat against drop coverage in particular.

Ionescu was one of five players to run at least 1,000 ball screens during the regular season, per Second Spectrum. The Liberty generated 0.93 points per possession on those trips—a top-10 mark among high-volume ball-handlers.

It's worth noting that Ionescu struggled against the Lynx this season. That 0.93 PPP clip dropped to 0.71 in their regular-season meetings, her lowest figure against any opponent this season. The Lynx did a great job of pressuring Ionescu early and often, then showing her a revolving door of coverages so she couldn't establish a rhythm.

The impressive and encouraging thing about Ionescu's postseason is that she's lit teams up in ball screens despite seeing a mixture of looks. We're rocking with a six-game sample of course, but the Liberty have generated over 1.05 points per possession on trips featuring a Ionescu ball screen, well above her regular-season clip.

The Lynx pose a different challenge than the Dream and Aces, but Ionescu should be better prepared this time around.

Bridget Carleton Will Lead the Series in Made Threes

In a series featuring Ionescu, Stewart and Kayla McBride, I'd keep an eye on the marksmanship of Bridget Carleton in this one.

She was one of the league's best shooters this season, drilling 44.4 percent of her threes on 5.3 attempts. In fact, she was one of four players—Satou Sabally (45.2 percent on 5.6 attempts), McBride (40.7 percent on 6.6 attempts) and Kelsey Mitchell (40.2 percent on 6.8 attempts) to shoot at least 40 percent from deep on five or more attempts.

Carleton made seven threes (out of 13 attempts) in the regular-season meetings with the Liberty, second only to McBride (10 makes) for the season-series lead. If you include the Commissioner's Cup title game where Carleton 1) nearly won the MVP award and 2) went 6-of-8 from deep, you're looking at a 13-of-21 (61.9 percent) clip across four games—which would've led all players.

The three-point shooting success hasn't carried over in the postseason, with Carleton only converting 30.8 percent of her looks so far. That's largely because the tough shot-making has faded. Per Second Spectrum, Carleton is shooting 27.8 percent on contested threes after drilling over 43 percent of them during the regular season.

It's unfair to ask anyone to hold up that level of efficiency against contests, but the Lynx will need some sort of happy medium from Carleton in this series. I think she'll be game for it.

Jonquel Jones Will Log at Least Two Double-doubles

Jonquel Jones looms large as a central figure to this series, both figuratively and literally.

On a team headlined by the exploits of Stewart and Ionescu, Jones has consistently been the bellwether for this team. One of my favorite stats to track—and for Liberty media and fans alike to trumpet (love y'all!)—is the Liberty's success rate when Jones racks up a double-double.

Since joining the team in 2023, the Liberty are 24-0 in regular-season games where Jones posts a double-double. They're "only" 7-3 in playoff games when Jones does the thing, but you're still looking at a 31-3 record across two seasons.

Now for the Lynx context this season: Jones dropped 21 and 12 in the Liberty's lone victory back in July. In the other three meetings (two regular-season games plus the Commissioner's Cup title game), Jones combined for 16 points (on 15 shots) and 23 rebounds.

The Lynx have posed an interesting challenge for Jones on both ends. Because of how perimeter-oriented the Lynx offense can be—in addition to their early drag screens, the Lynx are simply comfortable initiating their offense through the bigs with handoffs—Jones often finds herself away from the rim. On the other end, the Lynx are an incredibly difficult team to post up.

They're intentional about pressuring entry passers, limiting the windows for interior feeds while bleeding precious seconds off the shot clock in the process. They're also particular about how they defend post-ups; they'll mix in full fronting, but more often they'll attempt to shade the post player to whichever side they want to (eventually) send help from.

Jones will have to impose her will in this series—and do so without falling into foul trouble. It would also behoove the Liberty to find creative ways to keep Jones near the basket defensively.

A lot of this will come down to her matchup with Alanna Smith. From a scheme perspective, the most likely gambit defensively will be playing off of Smith and daring her to continue making threes. Smith has largely met the challenge this season—39.8 percent during the regular season, 44.4 percent during the regular-season meetings and 45.5 percent during the postseason so far—though that hasn't drastically shifted how she's been defended yet.

On the other end, an aggressive Jones could spell foul trouble for Smith; in that world, Jones would see some combination of Myisha Hines-Allen and Dorka Juhász. Though talented, neither big poses the same shooting threat as Smith at this stage.

Courtney Williams Will Lead the Series in Mid-range Buckets

In a series that should feature plenty of inside-the-arc scoring from Stewart, Collier, Jones and (for New York's sake) Ionescu, Courtney Williams could be the player the #Hooper crowd gravitates to.

Aside from how aesthetically pleasing Williams' high-release jumper is, it's both potent and important for the Lynx. She led the WNBA in mid-range attempts (277) and makes (128) during the regular season. Williams and M'VP A'ja Wilson were the only two players to make 100 mid-range shots this year, and did so on near-identical efficiency: a 46.2 percent clip for Williams, 46.3 percent clip for Wilson.

Williams went 9-of-19 (47.4 percent) on middies during the regular-season meetings against the Liberty. The Lynx will need that kind of volume and efficiency to pull off a series victory, especially in light of how the Liberty like to defend.

Per Second Spectrum, the Liberty switched nearly 23 percent of the Lynx's pick-and-rolls during the regular-season meetings. Only the Phoenix Mercury (32.9 percent) switched at a higher rate. The Liberty switched roughly a fifth (20.3 percent) of Williams' ball screens, with the Lynx generating 0.57 points per possession on those trips—a woefully low number that can't hold if the Lynx want to win this series.

And on that note...

The New York Liberty Will Win Their First Championship

Barring an unfortunate injury to a key piece, I fully expect this to be a long, competitive series.

The Lynx have had the Liberty's number all season, and I'm not sure anyone's performing on a higher level on both ends than Collier is right now. It should come as a surprise to no one at this point if the Lynx are able to finish their story.

And yet...it's hard to ignore how dominant the Liberty have been all season. Even narrowing things down to this series, I have a little more belief in the Liberty's star power and collective size.

One thing I haven't been able to shake: The Lynx have been the league's worst rebounding team this postseason—they've rebounded 47.6 percent of available misses--after ranking 10th (48.3 percent) during the regular season. The Liberty were first during the regular season (52.5 percent) and have ramped it up (53.3 percent, first again) during the postseason.

The Liberty were solid on the offensive glass (29.9 offensive rebound rate) during the regular season; they've gotten busier (31.7 offensive rebound rate) during the postseason despite facing the Dream (third in defensive rebound rate this season) and Aces (second) in back-to-back rounds.

The Lynx were 11th in defensive rebound rate (68.2) during the regular season, and that's gotten worse (65.7) in the playoffs. And in the regular-season meetings, the Liberty thrashed the Lynx on the offensive glass (36.7 offensive rebound rate).

Margins matter, particularly in the playoffs. The Liberty project to have a pretty big advantage in terms of ending possessions and generating extra chances for themselves.

There are pathways for the Lynx to overcome this. They can be even more diligent about gang-rebounding on the defensive glass. If they tilt more toward pure aggression in their base coverage, they could turn the Liberty over and hope to swing the possession battle that way.

And on a basic level, there won't be a ton of rebounding chances if you don't miss. We could simply live in a world where the Lynx continue to shoot the Liberty out of the building; they shot 42.5 percent from deep during their regular season meetings, while the Liberty only converted 24.7 percent of theirs.

Ultimately, the Liberty feel like a stronger and safer bet.