The first round of the 2024 MLB postseason is over, and it's easy to recap what happened.

The Detroit Tigers swept the Houston Astros. The Kansas City Royals swept the Baltimore Orioles. The San Diego Padres swept Atlanta. And the New York Mets took two of three from the Milwaukee Brewers.

However, simply highlighting the winners and losers of the Wild Card Series doesn't bring anyone closer to enlightenment. Here's a better question:

Who or what are the real winners and losers here?

We're going to answer this by getting into what the four series actually told us about the eight teams that partook. For the winners, it's about what they proved or what went right. For the losers, it's about what went wrong or what comes next.

We'll start in the American League and end in the National League.

See Also: MLB Playoffs 2024: Divisional Round Picks and Predictions For Every Series

Winner: A.J. Hinch's Chaotic Management of the Tigers

"Chaotic" sounds demeaning, but in this context it's meant as a genuine tribute to how A.J. Hinch manages the Tigers. It's how he describes it, after all.

Especially amid the 31-13 stretch with which the Tigers finished the regular season, Hinch's general strategy was to throw everything at the wall in hopes that some of it would stick. Yet he did so with the precision of a surgeon with a targeting computer, leveraging every spot on the roster to gain any extra inch he could.

Anyone who didn't know what this looked like in practice should now have a pretty good idea after Hinch led the Tigers to a sweep of his former employer in the Wild Card Series.

Though Tarik Skubal's six scoreless innings in Game 1 were huge, he was but one of seven Tigers pitchers to record at least three outs in the two games. Only five Astros pitchers did the same.

After finishing fourth in MLB in pinch hits during the regular season, the Tigers got five more in the Wild Card Series. And none bigger than Andy Ibáñez's bases-clearing double off Josh Hader in the eighth inning of Game 2.

Within the parlance of sports-related banter, no cliché is more tired than saying a team is "better than the sum of its parts." It is therefore more than a little annoying that this is the truth about the 2024 Detroit Tigers.

A team that finished 16th in wins above replacement has no business being in the American League Division Series. Yet that is where they are and indeed where they deserve to be.

Loser: The Astros' Dynastic Veneer

Is this the end for the Astros' dynasty? Did they ever even have one in the first place?

They have themselves to blame for the variance of opinions on the latter, but the consensus seemed to drift ever so gradually toward the affirmative in recent years. As Kyle Tucker put it when asked if he considered the Astros to have a dynasty: "Uh, probably."

But whatever it is the Astros have, it's crumbling.

Though they did eventually become the first team to play in seven straight American League Championship Series in 2023, that was after they had barely won the AL West at the end of a 90-win campaign. They had averaged 102 wins over their last five full seasons.

Pair this with how the 2024 Astros won only 88 games and held a lead for just one half of one inning in the Wild Card Series, and the picture of the here and now for the franchise is that of a downward-sloping hill. And it may be leading to the edge of a cliff.

Jose Altuve is convinced that Alex Bregman will stay, and it wouldn't be for the first time if Justin Verlander eventually finds his way back to Houston. Yet both are about to enter free agency, with Tucker and ace lefty Framber Valdez to follow after 2025.

"It ain't over 'til it's over," as catcher/manager/philosopher Yogi Berra once said. And to this end, the Astros should be afforded the courtesy of not having to hold a funeral for their dynasty (or whatever) until it's actually dead.

But right now, that moment feels closer than ever.

Winner: The Royals' Run Prevention Formula

Scoring just three runs in two games is not a recommended formula for winning those two games. It puts a team in a position to allow a maximum of one run.

Yet it worked for the Royals in their sweep of the Orioles.

The Royals indeed permitted the Orioles just one run, and they did it through their tried-and-true procedure of confusing the heck out of opposing hitters and refusing to suffer unmade outs.

Led by Cole Ragans in Game 1 and Seth Lugo in Game 2, Royals pitchers showed Orioles hitters 10 different pitch types, with not one accounting for more than 34.1 percent of the lot.

You can otherwise take your pick for the best defensive play of the series. Option 1 is MJ Melendez's running catch in left field in Game 2, though it didn't directly prevent a run in the style of Option 2: Michael Massey's diving stop at second base later in that game.

This is just what the Royals do. They were one of six teams to allow less than four runs per game in the regular season, mainly by way of a ton of pitch variation and a defense that topped the charts for Outs Above Average.

That the Royals conjured their run prevention magic so effectively against the Orioles is a good sign. Though Baltimore's sticks went brittle at the end of the year, their offense ultimately ranked No. 2 in scoring among American League clubs.

In the form of the New York Yankees, the Royals now have a chance to prove their wizardry can also work against the team that was No. 1 in the AL in scoring.

Loser: The Orioles' Seemingly Limitless Upside

Maybe this is a callous reading of the room, but the Orioles shouldn't get too down.

They have, after all, won more games than any other team in the American League across the last two seasons. Their young core is still the envy of baseball, and it'll be that much more so if Jackson Holliday learns from his first-year flop and follows the Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman route to superstardom.

There is that sense, though. You know, that sense that things should be going better.

The Orioles seemed borderline unstoppable in winning 101 games last year, only to get unceremoniously stopped in an ALDS sweep by the Texas Rangers. They were back at it again earlier this year, at one point moving to 24 games over .500 with the following odds at FanGraphs:

• Win AL East: 58.2 percent
• Win AL Pennant: 20.6 percent
• Win World Series: 9.7 percent

That these odds eventually careened toward zero is not how it was supposed to go, but expectations for Baltimore were pretty much reset by the time the playoffs began.

Seriously, did anyone have ironclad faith that the Orioles would beat the Royals? One doubts it, because one assumes that nobody was so blatantly blind to all (i.e., a cold offense and an even colder bullpen) that went wrong as Baltimore limped to a 34-38 finish after July 7.

All this sets the Orioles up to pursue unfinished business in 2025, but in between now and then are actual business matters to attend to. Notably, Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander will need to be either re-signed or replaced in free agency.

Should the Orioles fall short in either pursuit, they will have given everyone an excuse not to raise expectations again.

Winner: The Padres Get Their Wish

For the Padres, Atlanta wasn't so much an opponent as an obstacle in their way.

It's the Los Angeles Dodgers the Padres want, and it's the Los Angeles Dodgers they're getting in the National League Division Series.

As evidenced by the "Beat LA!" chants that rang out at Petco Park on multiple occasions during the Wild Card Series, this notion is partly a fan-driven one. But only partly, as the Padres themselves have been unusually open about wanting to take on the Dodgers.

"We've got to beat this team," Manny Machado said in July. "We've got to go through them."

Machado added on Wednesday: "This is what everyone wanted."

The Little Brother vs. Big Brother vibe of this rivalry is reminiscent of where the Boston Red Sox were vis-à-vis the Yankees in the early 2000s. Except a little stranger, as it was as recently as 2022 that the Padres went through the Dodgers en route to the National League Championship Series.

You can nonetheless see where all of Padre-dom is coming from. The franchise's first World Series championship remains uncaptured. To fix that would be sweet. To fix it after toppling their biggest rival and the de facto superpower in the National League would be sweeter.

Though Joe Musgrove's elbow tightness is a real threat to their progress, the Padres are certainly hot enough for the task at hand. Their two successive wins over Atlanta give them 45 for their last 64 overall. That's a .703 winning percentage.

Which is to say that if the Padres really—and I mean really—want to beat LA, they just need to keep doing what they've been doing.

Loser: That Atlanta Got in over the Diamondbacks

Frankly, it's a dang shame that Atlanta was the team that got the last ticket to the NL playoffs, and not the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Yes, we are talking about a team that began the year as the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series. But that was before the injury bug and the regression gods intervened and said, "Nope." Particularly once Chris Sale was suffering from back spasms, only the delusional could still perceive Atlanta as a threat for a deep playoff run.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, might have done it.

For all the problems they had on the mound by the end of the year, at least they still had Zac Gallen. They also had an offense that was dangerous even before Corbin Carroll came alive and the whole lineup went supernova. The Snakes averaged 6.2 runs per game in the second half of the season.

Granted, it's largely the Diamondbacks' own fault that they didn't top Atlanta for the NL's third and final wild-card spot. Their 10-12 skid in their last 22 games hurt, and their 2-5 record against Atlanta ultimately sealed their fate.

Yet Arizona was also the victim of a cruel twist of fate. They were powerless over the weather that caused that double-header between Atlanta and the New York Mets on Monday, and likewise powerless over how Game 2 did not matter to the Mets after they had won Game 1. Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has every right to be miffed about that.

It is what it is, of course. But if it had been something else, we might at least have gotten a better Wild Card Series.

Winner: The Mets' Miracle Magic

There are three words that, albeit in an odd way, basically define the Mets' 2024 season: Welp, they're screwed.

This sure seemed like the case come the ninth inning of Game 3 opposite the Brewers on Thursday. Down 2-0, their win probability was just 7.0 percent. They were up against Devin Williams and his Airbender changeup, which hadn't been hit for a homer in over a year.

But then Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead, ultimately game-winning three-run blast anyway.

And just like that, the Mets were decidedly not screwed anymore.

Sound familiar? It should.

The Mets coming face-to-face with their ruination only to leave their ruination icing a black eye is the story of their season. That they made the playoffs despite only having a 7.9 percent chance of doing so at one point is the macro telling of it. And from a micro perspective, Alonso's homer is merely the latest variation on a theme.

The Mets hit five go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning during the regular season, including three that erased a deficit. One happened just on Monday, when Francisco Lindor punched the club's ticket to the playoffs with his go-ahead shot in Atlanta.

To be clear, the Mets should not trick themselves into thinking that they can keep bailing themselves out with miraculous dingers every time their ruination comes back for a grudge match. As we'll discuss on the next slide, clutchness is the ficklest of friends.

But then again, the last thing these Mets need right now is advice on how they ought to be winning games. They've had that part figured out for a while now.

Loser: The Brewers' Clutch Gene Was There...Until It Wasn't

Alas, here lie the 2024 Brewers. Hoisted by their own petard.

On the previously mentioned matter of clutchness, that was one thing the Brewers had firmly on their side during the regular season. Consider, for example, how their hitters and pitchers fared in high-leverage situations:

• Hitters: .767 OPS, 4th-highest in MLB
• Pitchers: .665 OPS, 4th-lowest in MLB

This wouldn't have meant jack if the Brewers had failed to carry their clutch gene over to the Wild Card Series. Yet between the beginning of Game 2 and the almost-ending of Game 3, it wasn't just there. It was the story of the series.

Jackson Chourio hitting not one, but two game-tying homers in Game 2? Clutch.

Garrett Mitchell hitting the go-ahead, game-winning homer in Game 2? Clutch.

Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick going back-to-back for the lead in Game 3? Clutch.

Brewers pitchers not allowing a single run for 15 straight innings? Clutch.

But then it was...well, it was just all gone, wasn't it? And the really painful part for the Brewers is that they didn't even deserve to have it taken away.

If you get to a point where you can hand your two-time All-Star closer a multi-run lead in the ninth inning of an elimination game, you've done something right. And Williams had been even more automatic than usual, having gone 14 straight appearances without allowing a run.

And the pitch he threw Alonso? It wasn't even that bad.

When it comes down to it, the Brewers lost a game they should have won. It was bound to happen, but they were surely hoping it could wait until 2025.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.