Liberty F Jonquel Jones Evan Bernstein/Getty Images

WNBA Playoff Picture 2024: Bracket Predictions and Scenarios Before Season Finales

Kristopher Knox

Tuesday marked the penultimate day in the WNBA schedule as the regular season draws to a close. With final games set to take place on Thursday, the postseason schedule is nearly set.

The New York Liberty locked up the No. 1 seed with an 87-71 win over the Washington Mystics. This means that Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and the rest of New York's star-studded roster will have home-court advantage for as long as they're in the playoffs.

"It was one of our goals that we set out—trying to get that home-court advantage," Liberty coach Sandy Brondello said, per The Athletic's Ben Pickman.

The Atlanta Dream, meanwhile, took a big step toward securing the last available playoff spot with an 86-70 win over the Chicago Sky.

The postseason is slated to kick off on Sunday, September 22, and all eight playoff teams will be in action. Under the current playoff format, which was adopted in 2022, no teams will receive a first-round bye.

The opening round will feature four best-of-three series, in which the higher-seeded teams will receive home-court advantage for the first two games. If a Game 3 is necessary, the series will pivot to the lower-seeded team's home court.

The semifinals and championship round will each feature a best-of-five series with a traditional 2-2-1 home-away format.

As is the case in most leagues, opening-round matchups will feature the No. 1 seed versus the No. 8 seed, the second seed versus the seventh seed, the No. 3 seed vs. the No. 6 seed and the fourth seed against the fifth seed.

What we don't know is what, exactly, those matchups will be.

Updated Playoff Picture

1. New York Liberty (32-7)

2. Minnesota Lynx (30-9)

3. Connecticut Sun (27-12)

4. Las Vegas Aces (26-13)

5. Seattle Storm (24-15)

6. Indiana Fever (20-19)

7. Phoenix Mercury (19-20)

8. Atlanta Dream (14-25)

9. Washington Mystics (13-26)

10. Chicago Sky (13-26)

While the playoff field is largely set, a few things are still in play. No team has clinched the final berth just yet, and some seeding still needs to be sorted. If tiebreakers become involved, seeding will first be decided by head-to-head records, followed by conference winning percentage, percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record, point differential in head-to-head games and finally, by coin flip.

The top seed belongs to New York, and the Minnesota Lynx locked up the second seed. A last-second three-pointer by Bridget Carleton allowed Minnesota to edge out the Connecticut Sun 78-76, securing seeding for the Lynx.

A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and the defending-champion Las Vegas Aces ensured that they'll host an opening-round series with their 85-72 win over the Seattle Storm. Thanks to a loss by the Sun, Las Vegas still has a shot at the No. 3 seed.

Due to the head-to-head tiebreaker, Las Vegas will move up a spot with a win and a Connecticut loss on Thursday.

Atlanta now holds a one-game advantage for the eighth seed, but it does need to beat the Liberty on Thursday to secure it. The Mystics and Sky both trail the Dream by a game and need help.

Washington will close out its season against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. Chicago will wrap its schedule against the Sun.

The Storm, Fever and Phoenix Mercury are locked into their current playoff positions.

Updated Opening-Round Bracket Projections:

8. Atlanta Dream vs. 1. New York Liberty

7. Phoenix Mercury vs. 2. Minnesota Lynx

6. Indiana Fever vs. 3. Connecticut Sun

5. Seattle Storm vs. 4. Las Vegas Aces

   

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