We're knee-deep in team-preview-content season at the moment, and while those sorts of exercises can help you get your bearings ahead of the coming 2024-25 NBA campaign, they're not exactly feasts for the imagination.

The goal of most forecasts is to make the safe pick, to isolate median outcomes. Boring, right?

We're putting that approach aside in what'll hopefully be a refreshing look at potential dark-horse award winners. This is effectively team-preview content hiding in plain sight, as all of these relative long-shot guesses can only come true if several things break right. So when we choose Tyrese Haliburton as a potential MVP, we're acknowledging that there's a possibility his Indiana Pacers lead the league in offense and secure a top-four seed in the East.

Is that likely? Maybe not. But it's possible, and that's what makes it fun to consider.

To qualify as dark-horse candidates, our picks have to sit outside the top 10 favorites according to oddsmakers. Other than that, everyone is fair game.

MVP: Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton only has the 14th-best odds to win the 2024-25 NBA MVP award, which makes it seem like oddsmakers forgot the Indiana Pacers point guard hung around the top-five discussion for that honor last year until a strained hamstring altered his season.

He might have even been a front-runner six weeks into the year.

The 24-year-old finished with averages of 20.1 points and a league-leading 10.9 assists on a 47.7/36.4/85.5 shooting split, but he was putting up 24.2 points and 12.7 assists on a 49.6/40.4/86.8 split when he went down on Jan. 8 against the Boston Celtics.

A hasty return (just under three weeks) may have been motivated by Haliburton's desire to hit the games-played threshold for All-NBA eligibility. Though he managed to hit that mark, tacking another $40.9 million onto the extension he signed prior to last season, Haliburton wasn't quite the same guy after coming back from injury.

Already in possession of a record-tying two seasons with at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and 36.0 percent three-point shooting, Haliburton should be expected to add an unprecedented third this season. If he does so while leading an Indiana offense that could finish tops in the league—one whose dynamic transition game and singular offensive flow owes almost exclusively to Haliburton's stylistic influence—the next-gen Steve Nash parallels will only get harder to ignore.

Nash won a pair of MVPs with the Phoenix Suns by leading a dominant offense with his efficient shooting and live-wire passing. There's no reason Haliburton can't follow the same blueprint.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic

After finishing tied for 10th in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs somehow only earned the 16th-best odds for the award in 2024-25.

Apparently, there's not a lot of faith that awards voters will break with the well-established tradition that devalues the defensive contributions of guards. Marcus Smart (2022) and Gary Payton (1996) are the only backcourt players to win DPOY since 1988.

With Victor Wembanyama owning prohibitive-favorite status and loads of other big men ahead of Suggs in the eyes of oddsmakers, the Magic guard faces an extreme uphill battle. But a win isn't totally out of the question.

Suggs' chances to join Smart and Payton will depend on team success as much as his individual production. He'll need to be viewed as the biggest reason the Orlando Magic finish close to the top of the league in defensive efficiency, which isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. In fact, that's basically what happened last year, when Suggs ranked in the 98th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus, and the Magic posted the league's No. 2 defensive rating.

The eye test will provide favorable support for Suggs' numbers. He's undeniably disruptive on the ball, swipes steals at a top-10-percentile clip and is perhaps the hardest guard to screen in the league.

If Suggs simply puts up a season like he did in 2023-24 but gets more notice as the broader voting body recognizes his impact, he should finish among the top five. All it'll take from there is a little misfortune for a couple of the front-runners, and Suggs will have a real shot at this award.

Rookie of the Year: Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat

Kel'el Ware is far from a lock to start for the Miami Heat, but that fact seems like more of a feature than a bug in the No. 15 pick's dark-horse case. This way, it'll be easier for him to adopt the "came out of nowhere" profile.

Draft observers and patrons of Summer League won't be surprised if Ware explodes in his first season with the Heat. The 7-footer averaged 17.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game in Vegas, using his length to alter shots around the rim and a surprisingly patient back-to-the-basket game to carve out space and shoot short hooks over undersized opponents.

Don't expect Miami's offense to feature many dump-ins to a posted-up Ware, but do count on the rookie center racking up dunks on cuts and rolls to the rim. If any of his 42.5 percent shooting from three-point range last season at Indiana is real, Ware could add valuable spacing to the energy and athleticism he'll provide.

Even if Ware profiles as more of a conventional paint-bound center this season, Bam Adebayo's possible growth as a shooter could allow for more double-big looks. In a draft class most viewed as being short on superstars, Ware could stand out at an award-worthy level if he seizes a big enough role.

Sixth Man of the Year: Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks

You never want to catch yourself assuming you know better than the oddsmakers, but how could anyone avoid that thought upon seeing Bogdan Bogdanović behind 17 other players in Sixth Man of the Year odds?

The veteran combo guard was fifth in voting last year, displayed a raucous level of defiant competitiveness in the Olympics and figures to occupy an even bigger role for an Atlanta Hawks team that traded away Dejounte Murray. Bogdanović's production has been rock-steady throughout his seven-year career, with a scoring average ranging from a low of 11.8 to last year's high of 16.9 points per game.

A 38.4 percent career clip from three means you can count on Bogdanović to provide plus shooting to go with stellar secondary facilitation. Capable of running the show on the ball, bending defenses away from it and toggling between both roles as necessary, the 31-year-old is basically everything you could want in a top reserve.

The Hawks feel destined to post a win total in the 30s, which could make it hard to convince voters that Bogdanović's bench contributions actually matter. But team success isn't quite the same deal-breaking factor for Sixth Man as it is for MVP. That Bogdanović finished as high as he did last season offers hope he can climb the ranks even if Atlanta disappoints.

Most Improved Player: Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans

This one feels like stealing.

Trey Murphy III is ideally positioned to add the volume so many Most Improved voters conflate with actual growth.

Assuming Brandon Ingram is eventually traded, Murphy should take over a spot in the New Orleans Pelicans' starting lineup and boost last year's average of 29.6 minutes per game. If he plays alongside starters more often, it'll mean defenses won't be able to pay quite as much attention to him as a perimeter threat or secondary attacker.

Opponents who load up the strong side of the floor to stop Zion Williamson will have little chance of recovering to Murphy when he lets fly from ultra-deep or attacks the rack with violence on his mind. Those dynamics could allow Murphy, who put together quite a reel last year en route to 14.8 points per game, to produce another attention-grabbing highlight package.

Quietly, Murphy also rounded out his floor game last season, climbing into the 92nd percentile in defensive rebound rate at his position and grading out as a positively impactful defender by DEPM. Voters tend to be slower to appreciate non-scoring advances in a players' game, so it's ideal that Murphy actually started developing those areas last season.

Even if you're concerned trade acquisition Dejounte Murray will eat into Murphy's touches, you have to appreciate the value play here. Murphy finished seventh in Most Improved voting two years ago, has a shot to take on a much larger role and still somehow checks in below 32 other players among oddsmakers.

Coach of the Year: Michael Malone, Denver Nuggets

Michael Malone has already won a ring and finished among the top 10 in Coach of the Year voting four times since 2018-19. History says he's at least going to be in the conversation as long as his Denver Nuggets are in the hunt for a top-four spot in the West.

The key to his dark-horse candidacy this season is that, unlike last year, Denver isn't really expected to be the conference's best team. At this time last season, the Nuggets were defending champs with the same title-winning starting five fully intact. Now, with the Oklahoma City Thunder everyone's favorite to lead the West and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope playing in Orlando, the circumstances have grown more favorable for Malone.

If he leads Denver to the West's best record, it'll feel like he succeeded at a task with a much higher degree of difficulty. We'll all know that Nikola Jokić will deserve most of the credit if the Nuggets exceed expectations, but Malone could also be a beneficiary during awards season.

Note, too, that Malone has a good case for what might be best referred to as a "lifetime achievement" COY honor. That's not to say he'll get the award if Denver disappoints, but doesn't it seem reasonable that, all things being equal, voters might want to acknowledge how much winning he's enjoyed with Denver since taking over? Sentiment could definitely break some ties in Malone's favor.

If you think there are 16 coaches with a better shot at winning Coach of the Year than Malone, you agree with the oddsmakers. And you've also lost touch with reality.

Clutch Player Award: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

The key to choosing a good Clutch Player winner is understanding the circumstances around him.

No, that doesn't mean forecasting how many of his games will wind up in close-and-late situations; that's basically impossible. The only thing less predictable year-to-year than which players will perform in the clutch is how often teams will find themselves in those scenarios.

Instead, you have to choose someone who doesn't have competition for offensive primacy when games are within five points in the last five minutes. Several of the top options (DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, Tyrese Maxey) have teammates ranked by oddsmakers in similarly high positions (De'Aaron Fox, Devin Booker and Paul George, respectively).

Paolo Banchero stands alone as the Orlando Magic's offensive alpha. If anyone's going to dominate late-game usage, it'll be him.

In addition to plenty of opportunity and limited intra-team competition, Banchero has a game built for clutch success. He's too quick for bigs and too big for wings. He has to be guarded honestly because he's a willing and capable passer who averaged 5.4 assists per game last year. Best of all, Banchero is an adept foul-drawer who's averaged at least 7.0 free-throw attempts in each of his two NBA seasons.

At 22, Banchero is a good bet to continue improving across the board. In addition to a much better crack at the Clutch Player award than his 24th-ranked odds suggest, expect a scoring average in the high 20s, good efficiency and another All-Star nod.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.