Washington Mystics G Brittney Sykes Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

WNBA Playoff Bracket 2024: Clinch, Elimination Scenarios for Updated Picture

Kristopher Knox

The WNBA moved another step closer toward its postseason on Friday night, as 10 teams were in action. The final regular-season games will be played next Thursday.

With only a few games left to go, the playoff field is largely set. Seven teams have already clinched postseason berths, leaving just one final slot up for grabs. The Dallas Wings and Los Angeles Sparks have already been eliminated from contention.

The Chicago Sky, Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics are still alive for the final playoff spot, and Friday's matchup between the Mystics and Dream could prove to be pivotal.

Led by Brittney Sykes' 20-point performances, the Mystics outlasted the Dream 72-69. For now, the victory moves Washington into position for the eighth and final playoff spot while putting Atlanta a step closer to elimination.

Some seeding is also still in play, with the battle between the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm for the No. 4 seed being perhaps the most interesting race. The top four seeds will have home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs, and no underdog has won an opening-round series under the current playoff format.

There will be a break in the action on Saturday with games picking back up on Sunday. Heading into the weekend, the playoff picture is as follows:

2024 WNBA Playoff Picture

1. New York Liberty 31-6 (clinched)

2. Minnesota Lynx 28-9 (clinched)

3. Connecticut Sun 27-10 (clinched)

4. Las Vegas Aces 24-13 (clinched)

5. Seattle Storm 23-14 (clinched)

6. Indiana Fever 19-19 (clinched)

7. Phoenix Mercury 17-20 (clinched)

8. Washington Mystics 13-24

9. Chicago Sky 13-24

10. Atlanta Dream 12-25

Seeding will be pivotal heading into the postseason because of the WNBA's playoff parameters. There are no byes, but the opening round features a best-of-three format with the higher seed hosting the first two matchups.

If necessary, the lower-seeded team will host the final game of the series.

Teams will be seeded based on record and regardless of conference. In the case of matching records, the following tiebreakers will come into play:

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Conference winning percentage
  3. Winning percentage against all teams with .500 or better record
  4. Point differential in head-to-head games
  5. Coin toss

As previously mentioned, the race between the Aces and the Storm is an intriguing one. Whoever wins the fourth seed will earn home-court advantage for the first round. While winning that would still—most likely—set up a series with the No. 1 seed as a road team, the odds aren't as daunting.

The semifinals and finals utilize a best-of-five format with a more traditional 2-2-1 structure. A team can lose two games on the road and still have a chance to bounce back on its home court. Winning a road game before hosting two in a row can flip momentum in a big way.

It's not hard to envision a team like Las Vegas, led by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum, pulling off a second-round upset.

The race for the No. 5 seed is tight, and with three games remaining, Tuesday's game between the Aces and Storm could settle it.

Naturally, the race for the No. 1 seed is also big, as it will determine home-court advantage for the entirety of the postseason. The Liberty are close to clinching it, needing only a win or a Minnesota Lynx loss before the regular season ends.

Coincidentally, the Liberty and Lynx will face off on Sunday, with Minnesota winning two of three earlier matchups this season, including the Commissioner's Cup Final.

New York, though, will be prepared for Sunday's challenge.

"It's going to be a statement game," Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu told reporters. "I'm really excited to see the growth from the last time we faced them to now in terms of seeing how much better we've gotten."

The race for the final playoff spot is also extremely tight, especially after Friday. Due to tiebreakers, Washington is now in control of its own destiny.

A rematch with the Dream is on deck for Sunday, and Washington will wrap its schedule against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever next Thursday before finishing out against the Liberty. A win against Atlanta, though, will give the Mystics the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Dream and the Sky and leave them a win away from clinching.

With games against the Phoenix Mercury, Atlanta and the Connecticut Sun remaining, Chicago still has a path to the playoffs, but it must pull ahead of Washington. The Sky, which won't have Angel Reese (wrist) the rest of the way, has also been in a major slump.and feels like the least likely of the three playoff hopefuls to get in.

The Dream can gain back some ground against the Mystics and Sky but will close out against the Liberty. Right now, though, Atlanta's focus must be on Sunday's game against Washington and a chance to even the regular-season series.

   

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