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NBA Playoff Hopefuls That Could Struggle on Offense

Dan Favale

Last time we met, we took a look at NBA teams with immediate aspirations that seem fated to struggle on defense barring any changes before or during next season. Let's go ahead and run through the same exercise on the offensive end, shall we?

Identical rules apply. We're not spotlighting the worst offenses in the league, bar none. That would inevitably leave us to riff on squads not especially committed to winning with any semblance of urgency.

Higher-stakes situations will instead be the focus. We are looking to single out teams hoping or expecting to land a playoff spot that can most use an offensive boost.

One central question will shape this entire discussion: As of right now, are we confident Postseason Hopeful X will have a league-average offense? If the answer is no, well, then, said squad might just wind up appearing here.

Golden State Warriors

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Minutes with Stephen Curry remain the lifeblood of the Golden State Warriors offense. They placed in the 79th percentile of efficiency last season with him on the court. And though they mustered a 50th percentile performance when he sat, it could get harder to maintain league-average returns now that Chris Paul is in San Antonio.

Then again, Golden State's offense actually placed in the 63rd percentile without both guards. Removing Klay Thompson from the fold changes things, but not to unnavigable extremes.

Cake in improvement from Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga, along with the additions of Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson and De'Anthony Melton, and the Warriors have the depth and pieces necessary to float a level of respectability both with and without Steph. Their ceiling rises if Draymond Green is connecting on his (low volume) threes again.

This isn't about respectability, though. It's about Golden State keeping pace with the standard bearers in the Western Conference. This requires, at bottom, remaining inside the top 10 of points scored per possession.

That isn't guaranteed. This core still needs a viable No. 2 option. For all the universes in which Kuminga becomes that player, there are an equal number of scenarios in which it turns out a team built around an age-36 Curry needs a new best player rather than just a second in command.

Golden State seems to understand at least part of this. Neither Paul George nor Lauri Markkanen would have usurped Steph, but the Warriors' (even cursory) interest in both is nothing if not proof they recognize that the top of the roster wants for a reliably elite offensive peak.

Los Angeles Clippers

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Including last year's fourth-ranked offense feels icky. But then you dig into the Los Angeles Clippers' offseason churn. And that imbues you with a new sense of ickiness.

Losing Paul George stings. A lot. The Clippers picked up the pieces defensively—and then some—by grabbing Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn. The same cannot be said for the offense.

Jones and Dunn will help the team's overall zip and rim pressure. They also shrink the floor. Even if they are hitting threes, they don't take enough of them to frazzle rival defenses.

Los Angeles still has Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, as well as the two-man synergy the latter forged with Ivica Zubac. Norman Powell continues to provide outside shooting and downhill thrust. Terance Mann can be a floor-spacer and connector in his best moments, though whether he sustains that pinnacle for extended outcomes is a separate matter.

None of this is enough. The Clippers offense stayed above water last year when Harden and Leonard played without George and Russell Westbrook. But they lost those minutes overall, and more notably, the secondary lineups aren't nearly as strong. L.A. will be subject to many more one-star (and maybe zero-star) combinations.

Citing the return of Nicolas Batum, the arrival of Kevin Porter Jr. and whatever hope you might have for Bones Hyland is not the safety net some will think. And let's not pretend we can count on Leonard to appear in most of the team's games. His question-mark availability adds a combustibility element the Clippers have always known—just not to such a fragile extent.

If this team is going to insulate itself against a low floor, it needs an infusion of three-point volume and, likely, another dependable setup general.

Memphis Grizzlies

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Last year's Memphis Grizzlies placed dead last in points scored per possession. Despite making scant few changes to the roster, this is not the lens through which they must be viewed.

Injuries gutted the core and overall game-to-game availability. At full strength, this is not a bottom-feeding offensive operation.

On the contrary, the Grizzlies ranked 11th and fourth in points scored per possession, respectively, through 2021-22 and 2022-33. Even with some less-than-bankable turnover and a presumed reliance on a rookie in the middle (Zach Edey), a healthy Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. arm Memphis with the tools necessary to tread above water.

This is different from saying the Grizzlies offense will be good enough. Half-court limitations have plagued them even at their best. Their efficiency outside of transition has placed no higher than 22nd since Morant was drafted.

Perhaps the most notable strides made by Jackson (self-creation) and Bane (playmaking) reverse the trend, but I'm skeptical. This group remains thin on caps-lock SHOOTERS, an issue that will be most damning when someone other than Morant (such as Marcus Smart or Vince Williams Jr.) is spearheading the offense.

Relative to most other teams populating this list, Memphis and its fans should be thrilled. Shooting is easier to acquire than a co-star or another creator who doesn't submarine the defense.

Will the Grizzlies be open to making a move that nudges the needle in the right direction? That's a different story.

Orlando Magic

Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should improve the Orlando Magic's floor balance in the half-court, but his arrival does not solve their biggest issues on its own.

Orlando ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency last season, a finish fueled by lackluster three-point volume (27th) and efficiency (25th) as well as inconsistent pacing and a shot-creation deficit.

Plugging KCP into the starting lineup and giving more run to Jett Howard can broaden the Magic's creativity—and ability to stress-test defenses—away from the ball. Only career haters will rule out improvement from Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. Orlando can even try inserting Anthony Black into its spaciest combinations and hope to unlike his ball-handling and floor navigation.

Counting on this confluence of factors to bump the Magic closer to league average, let alone higher, is nevertheless risky. It's fine if the organization just wants more information on who and what is already in place.

But if they plan on competing with the toast of the Eastern Conference, poking around the trade market in search of a floor general who doesn't need to dominate the ball and further stretches out defenses profiles as a must.

San Antonio Spurs

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All of us, as a family, have come together in celebration of the lineup data from last season when Victor Wembanyama and Tre Jones shared the floor.

The San Antonio Spurs outscored opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions during those minutes—a mind-melting differential when you consider the sample (almost 2,700 possessions) and the fact that this team won 22 games.

Still, the offense in these instances remained below average. It placed in the 43rd percentile overall and ranked inside the 40th percentile of half-court efficiency. Adding in Devin Vassell barely moved the needle (47th percentile in the half court).

Landing Chris Paul will help. Ditto for continued development from Wemby, Vassell and others. But CP3 is 39, and no one on the roster currently qualifies as a knockdown shooter. Vassell, Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson have the best crack at actualizing the ladder. Vassell is the only one among them, though, who attempted at least five threes per game last season and drilled them at an above-average rate.

Continuing to boost the spacing around Wemby must be a priority—at minimum. That gets much harder to do independent of an outside acquisition if Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle are Sharpie'd in for prominent roles.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.

   

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