Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

MLB Predictions For Stretch Run of 2024 Regular Season

Joel Reuter

Just a few short weeks remain in the 2024 MLB regular season, and while the line between contenders and non-contenders is more decisive than most years, there is still a lot to be sorted out between now and the start of the postseason.

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are locked in what appears to be the one major battle for a postseason berth, but multiple division titles and seeding still need to be determined.

From an individual standpoint, several key stat races are also poised to go down to the wire. The AL batting title between Bobby Witt Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is shaping up to be a good one, while the NL pitching showdown between Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler to determine the NL Cy Young favorite will also be worth monitoring.

Ahead is a quick-hit round of predictions for notable stat leaders in both leagues, the final division standings and the 2024 playoff bracket.

AL Offensive Leaderboard Predictions

Aaron Judge Sam Hodde/Getty Images

AL Leaderboard Predictions

BA: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.337)

H: Bobby Witt Jr. (209)

HR: Aaron Judge (57)

RBI: Aaron Judge (140)

Runs: Bobby Witt Jr. (129)

SB: José Ramírez (40)

WAR: Aaron Judge (10.2)

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has more or less wrapped up the AL home run, RBI and WAR titles, though the question remains of whether he will join Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire as the only players in MLB history with multiple 60-homer seasons.

The AL MVP front-runner has been stuck on 51 long balls since Aug. 25 when he went deep twice, so he will need to snap out of that drought quickly if he wants to salvage another run at 60 homers.

The most compelling battle here is for the AL batting title, where Bobby Witt Jr. (.336) currently has the edge over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.326), though the two are trending in opposite directions.

Witt is hitting .177 with just one multi-hit performance in his last nine games, and his average has dipped 10 points during that stretch. During that same span of time, Guerrero is batting .387 with a three-hit game and a four-hit game to his credit.

NL Offensive Leaderboard Predictions

Shohei Ohtani John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

NL Leaderboard

BA: Luis Arraez (.319)

H: Luis Arraez (199)

HR: Shohei Ohtani (50)

RBI: Marcell Ozuna (114)

Runs: Shohei Ohtani (124)

SB: Elly De La Cruz (71)

WAR: Shohei Ohtani (7.7)

A third straight batting title for Luis Arraez?

His .313 average currently puts him atop the NL leaderboard, and the only other qualified NL hitter batting over .300 is Marcell Ozuna (.307), while Trea Turner (.297) and Ketel Marte (.293) are also on the periphery.

Shohei Ohtani's quest for baseball's first 50/50 season will be one of the biggest storylines of baseball's final week, and he is still on track to make history with 45 home runs and 46 steals on the board and 20 games left to play.

Elly De La Cruz has just 16 steals in 45 games since the All-Star break, leaving him at 62 steals on the year. He could go without another one the rest of the way and still finish as the NL leader, but his quest for the first 80-steal season since 1988 might be out of reach.

AL Pitching Leaderboard Predictions

Tarik Skubal Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

AL Leaderboard

W: Tarik Skubal (18)

SV: Emmanuel Clase (49)

ERA: Tarik Skubal (2.64)

WHIP: Logan Gilbert (0.91)

K: Tarik Skubal (235)

WAR: Tarik Skubal (6.9)

The last pitcher to win a Triple Crown—leading his league in wins, ERA and strikeouts—was Shane Bieber during the shortened 2020 season. Before that, it was way back in 2011 when Justin Verlander was also the AL MVP winner for the Detroit Tigers.

Now it's another Tigers hurler threatening to accomplish that feat.

Left-hander Tarik Skubal currently has a commanding lead over Framber Valdez (2.97) in ERA, but things are much closer in the other two categories. Entering play on Sunday, he had one more win than José Berríos and Seth Lugo, and four more strikeouts than Cole Ragans.

Emmanuel Clase has 42 saves and no other reliever in baseball has reached the 30-save mark yet, so he's a lock to lead the AL in that category for a third straight season. He has a shot to get to 50 saves for the first time, and he should at least be able to surpass José Mesa (46) for the single-season franchise record.

NL Pitching Leaderboard Predictions

Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

NL Leaderboard

W: Chris Sale (19)

SV: Ryan Helsley (48)

ERA: Zack Wheeler (2.51)

WHIP: Zack Wheeler (0.97)

K: Chris Sale (232)

WAR: Chris Sale (6.6)

The battle between Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler for NL Cy Young honors is shaping up to be the most compelling of this year's major award races, and it's between arguably the two best active pitchers who have never taken home that prize.

Here's where things currently stand:

San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease has 205 strikeouts, just one behind Sale for the NL lead, so he could find his way onto the leaderboard. It looks like a two-man race for NL Cy Young honors right now, though.

AL Standings Predictions

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

AL Standings

AL East

1. Baltimore Orioles
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central

1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Chicago White Sox

AL West

1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics
5. Los Angeles Angels

Unless the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers or Seattle Mariners can make a late surge, the six-team AL playoff field is essentially set at this point.

However, the AL East race to determine who gets the No. 1 seed and a bye and who gets the No. 4 seed and plays in the Wild Card Round is likely going to come down to the final days of the regular season. The Orioles and Yankees go head-to-head from Sept. 24-26 in what will be one of the most anticipated series of the remaining slate.

The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins both appear destined to play on the road in the Wild Card Round, but the Twins would no doubt love to avoid playing the Yankees by securing the No. 5 seed. The Twins are 2-16 all-time against the Yankees in the postseason.

A bit further down the standings, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays still have six games left head-to-head, and they are separated by just two games in the standings as they battle for third in the AL East.

NL Standings Predictions

Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

NL Standings

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins

NL Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves entered play on Sunday separated by one game in the standings for the third wild-card spot, and that currently looks like the only real battle in either league for a playoff berth.

According to Tankathon, the Mets have the third-toughest remaining schedule, while the Braves check in 17th on that list. The season series is knotted up at 5-5, and they face off one more time for three games from Sept. 24-26 with their postseason hopes potentially hanging in the balance.

Elsewhere, two NL Central rivals in the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are fighting for the second spot in the division standings, while the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are locked in a similar race that also has wild-card seeding implications.

Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies are playing for the best record in the National League and likely the best record in all of baseball, which would mean home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Playoff Matchup Predictions

Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Playoff Bracket

AL Wild Card Matchup 1: (6) Kansas City Royals at (3) Houston Astros

AL Wild Card Matchup 2: (5) Minnesota Twins at (4) New York Yankees

First-Round Bye: (1) Baltimore Orioles, (2) Cleveland Guardians

The big predictions here are the Orioles winning the AL East and the Twins overtaking the Royals for the No. 5 seed, which sets them up for another postseason meeting with the Yankees who have consistently had their number in October.

NL Wild Card Matchup 1: (6) New York Mets at (3) Milwaukee Brewers

NL Wild Card Matchup 2: (5) San Diego Padres at (4) Arizona Diamondbacks

First-Round Byes: (1) Philadelphia Phillies, (2) Los Angeles Dodgers

Sorry, Braves fans, but we're predicting it's the Mets who secure the final NL wild-card spot. The Padres and D-backs seem destined to meet in one of the Wild Card Round matchups, though it is still up for grabs who will be playing host. The season series between those two clubs is currently tied 5-5, with one final three-game series on tap to close out the regular season.

   

Read 18 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)