Predicting who will be most active during Major League Baseball's free agency window is a bit like predicting which college football teams will sign multiple 5-star recruits in any given class. If you follow the sport at all, you already know the majority of the most likely candidates, and they don't change much from year to year.

All the same, it's interesting to look at multiyear payroll situations to get a sense of just how much those big-market franchises might be willing and able to spend this winter, as well as which top free agents they're likely to target.

Plus, it's not entirely the usual suspects this winter.

In particular, the Philadelphia Phillies figure to be much quieter than usual. After seven consecutive offseasons of spending at least $134M, they already have the second-highest current payroll for 2025 and will probably just do some light spending in the bullpen.

In Philadelphia's stead, we see two other teams from the Mid-Atlantic area getting a bit more aggressive in free agency than they have been in recent years.

After a few honorable mentions who just missed the top eight, teams are presented in alphabetical order.

All payroll/contract figures courtesy of Spotrac's Multi-Year Cap Tracker, current as of Monday morning.

Honorable Mentions

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore certainly should be active in free agency after losing its three highest salaried players—Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander as unrestricted free agents; Craig Kimbrel on a $13M club option that is all but certain to be declined. But this is a franchise that hasn't signed a free agent to a multiyear deal since inking Alex Cobb in March 2018. Maybe that changes in a big way in the first full winter under new ownership, though.

Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger probably isn't going to decline his player option, so this entire offense figures to be back again next season. However, the Cubs are going to be a major player for at least one of the top starting pitchers on the market. And if really all they do this winter is sign Corbin Burnes, that would still make them one of the biggest spenders, because he ain't coming cheap.

Texas Rangers

See: Chicago Cubs. The Rangers have all nine of their team leaders in plate appearances under contract for next season, as well as Evan Carter, Josh Jung and Justin Foscue. They'll probably add a backup catcher, but that's it as far as hitters go. But with Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney hitting free agency, the reigning-champs-turned-sub-.500-mess will likely try to sign a Blake Snell or Max Fried. They'll also have quite a bit of work to do on that bullpen.

Boston Red Sox

Current 2024 Payroll: $213.3M

Current 2025 Payroll: $107.6M

Free Agents: RHP Kenley Jansen, OF Tyler O'Neill, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Chris Martin, C Danny Jansen, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Lucas Sims, RHP Lucas Giolito (player option very likely to be exercised)

As far as position players are concerned, the Red Sox are in great shape for next year.

Losing Tyler O'Neill stings a bit, but hard to argue with an outfield of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Theoretically getting healthy seasons out of both Triston Casas and Trevor Story sure would help fill O'Neill's void in the lineup, too.

Adding a second baseman would be nice, but probably isn't necessary.

They simply have to spend on pitching this winter, though.

It's worth noting they do get Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks "back" in 2025. Boston signed both free agents this past offseason and hasn't had either one pitch in 2024. The former could be their ace and the latter their closer (sans Kenley Jansen) next season.

Still, there's plenty of work to be done on a pitching staff that is mostly to blame for this team's shortcomings over the bulk of the past six years.

They'll need to replace a sizable chunk of the bullpen. And though Nick Pivetta is their only starting pitcher hitting free agency, the Red Sox damn near must be in the market for a Blake Snell or Corbin Burnes type of splash signing to address the pains of three consecutive seasons with an entire starting rotation made up of what should be No. 3 and No. 4 starters.

Houston Astros

Current 2024 Payroll: $296.3M

Current 2025 Payroll: $146.4M

Free Agents: 3B Alex Bregman, RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Kendall Graveman, LHP Caleb Ferguson, RHP Hector Neris, OF Ben Gamel, OF Jason Heyward

Houston already has issues at both the first base and center field spots in its lineup, and now it will need to either replace or re-sign Alex Bregman at the hot corner.

That alone could make the Astros one of the biggest spenders in free agency, as Bregman has a market value (per Spotrac) of four years, $120M.

That's probably an underestimation, too, now that Matt Chapman got that six-year, $150M extension from the Giants earlier this month. Wouldn't be terribly surprising if Bregman signs the second-biggest contract this winter—behind Juan Soto, of course.

And if he doesn't sign it with Houston, where do the Astros turn?

Eugenio Suárez on a short-term deal?

Give Zach Dezenzo another shot after he struggled in recent weeks and got sent back down to Triple-A?

Maybe they swing big for Willy Adames on a nine-figure deal and hope that either he or Jeremy Peña can slide effortlessly from short to third?

Or, instead of worrying about third base, throw their hat in the ring for Pete Alonso to at least make sure one of their corner infielders can provide some serious offense?

This starting rotation is headed for quite the state of flux, too.

Not only are Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hitting free agency, but Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy are going to miss most, if not all of next season after their Tommy John surgeries in June. And goodness only knows if they'll get anything out of Lance McCullers Jr., who hasn't pitched in nearly two years at this point, but is still signed for $17.7M each of the next two years.

They've got one more year of Framber Valdez, they should have a healthy Luis Garcia back in 2025 and all of Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are still budget-friendly options on pre-arbitration salaries. They're going to be in the mix for at least one starting pitcher, though, and it might be one of the big ones, in an effort to preemptively address Valdez's possible departure after next season.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current 2024 Payroll: $352.0M

Current 2025 Payroll: $244.7M

Free Agents: OF Teoscar Hernández, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Walker Buehler, UTIL Enrique Hernández, RHP Joe Kelly, RHP Daniel Hudson, RHP Blake Treinen, SS Miguel Rojas (club option), C Austin Barnes (club option), LHP Clayton Kershaw (player option)

No, they won't be spending over a billion dollars like they did last offseason, but the Dodgers should still be pretty busy.

One of the biggest questions here is whether they feel that top prospect Dalton Rushing will be ready for the show next spring. He was predominantly a catcher until about a month ago when they promoted him to Triple-A and started playing him in left field—in preparation for Teoscar Hernández hitting free agency, no doubt. And, thus far, he has fared quite well.

However, with center field already a problem area for them, you've got to believe they're going to bring in at least one fresh, possibly expensive outfielder this offseason. (It can't possibly be Juan Soto, though, right? Maybe they re-sign Hernández.)

Shortstop is another spot where the Dodgers might swing big, given the series of unfortunate events that resulted in Mookie Betts spending a fair amount of time in the middle infield over the past two seasons. Willy Adames would be the big one, but they could also commit quite a bit of money to Ha-Seong Kim if and when he declines his $7M mutual option with the Padres.

In theory, the Dodgers don't need to do anything on the pitching front. Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are signed for a while. So is Shohei Ohtani, who we're still expecting to see back on the mound in 2025. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be back from their injuries, as well. Clayton Kershaw figures to return, and don't forget about Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski.

Would you be particularly surprised, though, if the Dodgers went out and spent a bunch of money on Roki Sasaki?

New York Mets

Current 2024 Payroll: $348.8M

Current 2025 Payroll: $147.3M

Free Agents: 1B Pete Alonso, OF Harrison Bader, OF Jesse Winker, DH J.D. Martinez, IF Jose Iglesias, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Luis Severino, LHP Sean Manaea (player option), RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Drew Smith, RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Phil Maton (club option)

The New York Mets do already have six players—Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, Kodai Senga and Edwin Díaz—signed for a combined total of just over $120M in 2025.

However, if anyone is going to spend this offseason like the Dodgers spent last offseason, it's the Mets.

They are on track for a second consecutive year with a luxury tax bill of roughly $100M, but they have a ton of money coming off the books this winter, including something like $87M in retained salaries, most of that coming from the Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer trades last summer.

It's already a foregone conclusion that they are going to make a massive offer to Juan Soto the instant they are allowed to begin that conversation without breaking any tampering rules.

But offering Soto half a billion bucks is merely the beginning.

They're going to try to re-sign Pete Alonso for what could be close to $200M.

They're also going to make it a point to bring in at least one quality starting pitcher, considering they're about to lose all three of their team leaders in innings pitched this season. If it's Corbin Burnes, that might be another $200M price tag.

Maybe signing all three isn't likely, but with Steve Cohen cutting the checks, it isn't exactly beyond the realm of possibility, either.

New York Yankees

Current 2024 Payroll: $324.7M

Current 2025 Payroll: $202.4M

Free Agents: OF Juan Soto, 2B Gleyber Torres, OF Alex Verdugo, 1B Anthony Rizzo (club option), RHP Gerrit Cole (player option), RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Luke Weaver (club option), RHP Lou Trivino (club option)

Without a close runner-up, the biggest question of the offseason is: Who wins the Juan Soto sweepstakes?

For now, the Yankees feel like a slight favorite in a bidding war that will definitely include the New York Mets and might include the San Francisco Giants and/or Washington Nationals.

The dynamic duo of Soto and Aaron Judge has carried the Yankees to what might be the No. 1 seed in the American League portion of the postseason, and they are going to be highly motivated to keep that pair together for as long as possible. But we'll see if they're able to out-bid the Mets.

The second biggest question might be: What happens with Gerrit Cole? Specifically, if he exercises his opt-out clause, will the Yankees opt in by adding another $36M year to his contract?

We've already devoted an entire article to that topic, but it's certainly plausible that the Yankees will both retain Cole and sign Soto—even though that would put them at around $210M next season just between Soto, Judge, Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, D.J. LeMahieu, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodón.

Should they fail to sign Soto or should they let Cole walk in free agency, they would presumably take a good chunk of those "savings" and put it toward a good closer and/or a first baseman or corner outfielder who can replace at least a fraction of what Soto has given them this season.

Either way, they'll be busy.

San Francisco Giants

Current 2024 Payroll: $222.1M

Current 2025 Payroll: $143.8M

Free Agents: LHP Blake Snell (player option), LHP Robbie Ray (player option), OF Michael Conforto, 1B/OF Mark Canha, 1B Wilmer Flores (player option), C Curt Casali

The Giants already made quite the splash in re-committing to 3B Matt Chapman on a six-year, $151M extension last week, but they could still be very busy, pending the decisions of those southpaw pitchers above.

That 2025 payroll of $143.8M for some reason does not yet include the estimated $25M to Chapman, but it does include the combined $63.5M theoretically due to Blake Snell and Robbie Ray. Snell is very likely going to opt out, though, and it's at least plausible that Ray will join him in free agency. If that happens, that payroll (after factoring in Chapman's $25M) drops to just $105.3M, and the Giants would be on the prowl for several of the top free-agent pitchers.

Even if Snell and Ray both return to the Bay Area in 2025, though, the Giants should be relatively active in free agency.

They already traded away Jorge Soler, they're going to lose Michael Conforto and they should probably do something at second base after the disappointing year Thairo Estrada had. Even with Jung Hoo Lee presumably coming back at full strength from his shoulder operation, they need several bats.

It has been suggested that the Giants might be in on Juan Soto, but we'll believe that when we see it, given their high-profile free agency misses in recent years. But they could spend a lot of money on an Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and/or Ha-seong Kim.

Toronto Blue Jays

Current 2024 Payroll: $229.2M

Current 2025 Payroll: $122.6M

Free Agents: RHP Ryan Yarbrough

Notably, that current 2025 payroll does not include Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s final year of arbitration eligibility, which will likely clock in at around $27M or $28M to bring them up to $150M.

Also notable, though, is that Toronto's "list" of free agents doesn't include everyone it already traded away and, in most cases, still needs to replace if it intends to win with Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Co. next season.

Yusei Kikuchi was the big one. The Blue Jays do still have Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, but do they trust any of Bowden Francis, Yariel Rodríguez or Alek Manoah for regular duty at the back of the rotation heading into next season? Maybe Francis, given how well he has pitched over the past two months, but they'll likely be in the market for at least one starting pitcher.

Beyond that, a good chunk of this lineup could use a makeover.

Guerrero and Bichette are locks for first and short, respectively, and George Springer's contract in right isn't going anywhere any time soon. Daulton Varsho in either left or center is a given for 2025, as well.

The other outfield spot is a colossal question mark, though, as is DH. And while Ernie Clement has been respectable at third base, are the Jays really going to let it ride with a guy who had a mild breakout in his age-28 season when they could potentially go get Alex Bregman instead?

If they weren't all-in on winning in 2025, they would've traded away Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt to embrace a rebuild. But they didn't, and they might get pretty aggressive this offseason in hopes of at least partially making up for missing out on Shohei Ohtani last winter.

Washington Nationals

Current 2024 Payroll: $139.5M

Current 2025 Payroll: $40.4M

Free Agents: LHP Patrick Corbin, 1B Joey Gallo, RHP Trevor Williams, RHP Jacob Barnes

While the New York Mets are the team most likely to mirror the Los Angeles Dodgers' spending spree from last offseason, the Washington Nationals are the team most likely to match what the Kansas City Royals did in committing more than $110M across a bunch of free agents.

If we're talking about the 10 biggest stars in this year's class of free agents, the Nats might not be a serious contender for any of them. Even though they have more than enough room in the budget to make it work, it just doesn't make much sense for a Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, Blake Snell or Alex Bregman to land in the nation's capital right now. A reunion with Juan Soto feels even more far-fetched.

They should be in the mix for a lot of that next tier of players who figure to go in the $5M-$12M per year range, though.

A reunion with Josh Bell at first base would make sense. Eugenio Suárez for the other corner infield spot is a logical target. Maybe they go a little more expensive to get a Jack Flaherty, but Luis Severino and/or Walker Buehler are more likely options for a rotation that needs a lot of help.

It won't be a singular big splash, but it could be a bunch of eyebrow-raising ripples for a team that will be looking to replicate more than just Kansas City's approach to free agency. If they make the right moves and snag this year's versions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, the Nationals could turn things around in a hurry.