Is it really good form to discuss which NBA teams should be in the market for defensive upgrades before 2024-25 training camps even open and we see how rosters fare during actual games?
Um, yes.
On-paper impressions aren't everything. There will absolutely be teams that don't look the part and then go on to hold up perfectly fine, if not better than that, on the less glamorous end.
Roster construction can still clue us into which defenses need wholesale infusions or meaningful upgrades to increase their team's odds of meeting or exceeding overall expectations.
This run-through isn't about spotlighting the NBA's leakiest faucets, period. The bottom five-to-seven defenses will invariably belong to franchises not actively trying to be good. Sure, the Washington Wizards seem built to belch out one of the worst (statistical) defensive seasons in league history, but that's essentially by design.
Higher-stakes situations will instead be the focus. We are looking to single out squads hoping or expecting to land a playoff spot that could most use a defensive boost.
The bar for inclusion will be determined by one question: As of right now, are we confident Postseason Hopeful X will have a league-average defense? If the answer is no, then that squad is automatically up for consideration.
Atlanta Hawks
Whether the Atlanta Hawks belong in a discussion reserved for playoff hopefuls is certainly up for argument. But they won the minutes Trae Young logged without Dejounte Murray last year, and more critically, they don't control the rights to their next three first-round picks. Their incentives to exist outside this exercise do not exist.
Offensive relevancy won't be an issue. That's the luxury of having Young and Bogdan Bogdanović and Jalen Johnson.
Defense is another story. Atlanta finished 26th in points allowed per possession last year and doesn't have the personnel to suggest it'll be much stingier now. Dyson Daniels is better suited to be the primary stopper compared to Murray, but his offensive impact can be muted if he spends too much time off the ball. Zaccharie Risacher may one day be a capable perimeter checker, but it's unrealistic to count on his excelling as a rookie.
Vit Krejčí is solid. And the Hawks have a nice meld of presences at the basket and frontline versatility with Johnson, Clint Capela, Larry Nance Jr. and Onyeka Okongwu. But ball containment projects to be a major issue on most nights unless Atlanta completely dispenses with offensive-oriented units.
Shifting this outlook likely requires the addition of a wing or combo forward who, at least for now, qualifies as a two-way upgrade over Daniels and Risacher yet can also play beside one or both of them without mandating the Hawks too aggressively downsize.
Indiana Pacers
Trading for Pascal Siakam did not fully revamp the Indiana Pacers' defense. They ranked 22nd in points allowed per possession after his debut, and while their core lineup at full strength—Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner—delivered promising returns during the regular season, the results reversed in the playoffs, revealing weaknesses galore, including a curiously bad presence on the glass.
Indiana does have other cards it can play as currently constructed. Mainly, it can try insulating Siakam less on switches and primary wing assignments. And even that's imperfect, as Caitlin Cooper expertly explained over at Basketball, She Wrote:
"The obvious solution, as mentioned, would be to simply have Siakam guard the center position and switch on ball-screens, with Turner defending as the weak-side rim protector. While less frequent than last season, that scheme wouldn't be entirely unfamiliar...That said, when disregarding that game as an extreme outlier performance (which, it obviously was), the Pacers allowed 0.828 points per chance on the season with Siakam switching as the screener defender compared to 1.243 with him chasing over as the ball-handler defender. In part, that's why it's difficult to assign him as primary against on-ball wing creators or versus Jalen Brunson in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. His isolation defense can hold up at times in contain, but he's too easily screened. Put simply, he's a big body, but he's also a big target."
As things currently sit, the Pacers feel overly reliant on Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. That's dicey on its face—eminently doable when they play together, but difficult to reconcile when separately and even in tandem versus certain matchups.
If expanding Siakam's perimeter responsibility isn't the answer, then the solution has to be grooming Jarace Walker as a wing. Personally, I don't see it. But it's tough to see anything in a 340-minute regular-season sample. Ben Sheppard, for his part, is scrappy as hell. He's yet another player, though, who registers as a fringe wing.
And so, Indy's biggest need is exactly what it's been for a while: a combo wing standing 6'7" or taller who can sponge up the assignments and defensive usage Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam and Walker cannot or should not.
Milwaukee Bucks
A midseason head coaching change from Adrian Griffin to Doc Rivers ended up helping the Milwaukee Bucks' defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez is still an elite rim protector, the team resumed limiting shots at the basket, and the much-maligned transition issues were largely course corrected (the playoffs notwithstanding).
This uptick was still only enough for the Bucks to hover around league average in points allowed per possession. That's not going to fly if they want to win a title.
Adding Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr. will help. Both should boost Milwaukee's top-down ball containment, and GTJ, for all his ill-advised gambles, brings a chaos element that should ensure the Bucks force more turnovers.
Maybe this is enough for them to re-enter the top 10 of defensive efficiency. But even a league-average defense isn't necessarily assured.
Milwaukee's most-used lineup—presumably Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Trent, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton—will be fine. But the rotation could use a two-way wing, particularly if you're worried about Lopez losing a step as your anchor at age 36 or concerned about the durability and waning mobility of Khris Middleton.
"Two-way wings" is a loaded need. Virtually every team could use more. In the Bucks' case, though, it's not so much about pining after a marquee name they can't get as it is about potentially needing someone with more positional malleability who can help float their defense inside secondary lineups.
Phoenix Suns
Let's begin by noting the Phoenix Suns ranked 12th in points allowed per possession last season, a finish buttressed by top-eight placement from early February onward. At their peak under then-head coach Frank Vogel, they gobbled up a lot of the low-hanging fruit: limiting their fouls, restricting second-chance opportunities, scrambling to switch out of potential mismatches, getting back after missing shots on offense, etc.
Kevin Durant (especially in the second half of the season) and Jusuf Nurkić deserve a world of credit, Bol Bol provided quality spot minutes on the less glamorous end during Phoenix's pinnacle stretch, and Grayson Allen capably took on some outsized assignments. The addition of Royce O'Neale at the deadline helped, too.
Can this overall standing hold for another year? Debatable. Durant shouldn't have to do as much as last year, and even with O'Neale and Josh Okgoie back, the Suns are not teeming with people who can line up against top perimeter weapons. Signing Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, while quality moves, only exacerbates the dearth of wings. It's unrealistic to think rookie Ryan Dunn can tilt that issue in Phoenix's favor.
Fortifying or upgrading the defense could prove impossible. The Suns aren't going to marginalize any member of their Big Three—Devin Booker has always been important to how they guard—and Jones presumably didn't accept the minimum without a guarantee that his minutes will hover around or at starter level and that he'll have a fair crack at crunch-time cameos.
All of which leaves the Suns to focus on upgrading the Nurkić spot or going after someone who preserves and augments the inevitable KD-as-the-lone-big stretches.
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings placed sixth in points allowed per possession last season from March onward, a stretch that (not coincidentally) coincided with Keon Ellis assuming an expanded role. And if there's anything we know about March basketball in the NBA, it's totally viable and telltale and not the byproduct of late-season noise at all.
In all seriousness, the emergence of Ellis coupled with noticeable improvement from De'Aaron Fox and a defensive leap from Keegan Murray mean the Kings have the personnel to cobble together lineups with real stopping power. But the arrival of DeMar DeRozan complicates things.
Don't take this as a "Harrison Barnes is actually an elite defender!" rant. It's more about how the Kings use their perimeter players to cover up for spotty rim protection from Domantas Sabonis and in tertiary lineups without him. Murray, Barnes and Fox ranked second, third and fourth, respectively, in shots contested at basket per game for Sacramento last season. DeRozan has shown flashes of doing this too—just not as well as Barnes or Murray.
More broadly, the Kings can't have Ellis and Murray on the court for a full 48 minutes. Their roster would be far more optimized with another wing or forward who doesn't shrink the floor on offense yet ensures they are seldom running units that don't include two noticeably above-average defenders.
There's a real chance the offense with DeRozan is so good it doesn't matter. And just to be clear, this isn't about him alone. Sacramento's defensive question marks relate more more to overarching lineup construction—about having enough players who don't require trade-offs at one end of the floor.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
Read 39 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation