Hindsight's awfully helpful when analyzing the NBA. In today's fan and media landscape, we want instant reactions to every draft pick, trade and free-agent signing, but we don't really know how smart any of the above were until we see the players involved in action.
In some cases, it takes a few years to get a grip.
Here, we're going to use all that hindsight and experience digesting the NBA to reassess a handful of moves from the last half-decade.
Based on the performance of the players involved and the teams they went to, Bleacher Report's NBA staff have graded the signings of Jalen Brunson, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and more from the past five years.
Kawhi Leonard to LA Clippers (2019)
Five years ago, the Los Angeles Clippers went all-in (and then some) when they traded a boatload for Paul George and signed Kawhi Leonard as a free agent.
They went from a plucky underdog whose three leading scorers were Tobias Harris, Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari to a two-superstar juggernaut that was a perennial darling for offseason prognosticators.
However, offseason predictions from analysts never led to the ultimate goal for the Kawhi-era Clippers. They made one conference finals, but that was in a year when Leonard was hurt by the time they got there, and no one gave them a shot in that series with the Phoenix Suns (Reggie Jackson was their second-leading scorer in those six games).
When you sign a max free agent coming off his second career Finals MVP, and do it in concert with a trade that cost you Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and multiple first-rounders, titles are the expectation. L.A. never really got close, and now George is gone.
Of course, no one could have forecast that SGA would become an MVP candidate within a half-decade of the deal. And turning down the opportunity to add two top 10-20 players in their primes in the same summer would have been ludicrous.
So, grading this deal, even in hindsight, is tricky. Kawhi is an all-time great. Getting him in free agency was a win. Sacrificing the bulk of the future for him and George wasn't.
The Clippers still pass, because there weren't really reasonable explanations to turn Kawhi down back then, but the era didn't play out anywhere near the way the organization must have expected it to.
Grade: C
—Andy Bailey
Jimmy Butler to Miami Heat (2019)
In 2019, few could have predicted that the impact of both Kawhi and PG on the Clippers would pale in comparison to that of Jimmy Butler on the Miami Heat.
Already pushing 30 and showing signs of wear and tear from years of playing for Tom Thibodeau, Butler was acquired in a sign-and-trade that cost the Heat Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside.
In the years since, Butler has taken two different outmanned Miami teams all the way to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, Whiteside is out of the league, and Richardson is a fringe rotation player.
No, Butler hasn't secured a fourth title for this organization. And it's starting to feel like his era may be over soon. But the 34-year-old has kept Miami far more relevant than it would have otherwise been, thanks to absurd playoff production.
In a Heat jersey, Butler has averaged 24.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.1 threes in 64 postseason games.
Grade: A+
—Andy Bailey
Kevin Durant to Brooklyn Nets (2019)
Bagging two superstars in the same summer was considered a coup for the Brooklyn Nets.
They had built themselves back up from a laughingstock to a plucky upstart that appealed to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving more so than the New York Knicks. Their decision also portended James Harden's arrival—a move that was more debatable in real time, but one that further signaled Brooklyn's meteoric rise to relevance.
The benefit of hindsight does nothing to idealize this era of Nets basketball. It all ended terribly and with plenty of twists and turns. Harden's trade request came first (2021). Kyrie then extricated himself before the 2023 deadline, and Durant followed suit.
So ended one of the biggest "what ifs" in NBA history. The megastar trio played fewer than 20 games together, and Brooklyn won just a single playoff series during the Durant era.
And yet, if not for an injury to Harden—as well as KD's size-18 shoe—the Nets could have plausibly won a title. Beyond that, the opportunity cost of landing him (basically D'Angelo Russell) was far from egregious.
Sure, you can't help but wonder what might have been in Brooklyn if it never pivoted into glitz, glam and egos. But what might have been isn't always better. The Nets had no alternative path to title contention outside of stripping it down as they regained control of their own picks.
It likewise helps that Durant didn't leave them empty-handed on the way out. When you factor in what they got for Mikal Bridges, they turned a disgruntled superstar with a single preferred destination (as well as two swaps) into seven extra first-round picks, the return of the rights to a pair of their own firsts, another two swaps, two Milwaukee seconds and Cam Johnson.
Granted, we can't ignore that Durant's arrival prompted Brooklyn to toss away huge swathes of its future in the first place. But as far as missteps go, this one didn't so much cripple a franchise as complicate it.
Grade: C
—Dan Favale
Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn Nets (2019)
The Brooklyn Nets are on firm footing now, prepared to tank and rebuild in earnest. But the journey they went on to arrive here, which began when they inked Kyrie Irving to a four-year, $141 million deal in 2019, involved traveling over a whole lot of shaky ground.
Irving arrived as a package deal with Kevin Durant and Deandre Jordan.
"In my heart, I always knew I wanted to play at home," he said. This came after Irving pledged allegiance to the Boston Celtics and bounced, of course.
From there, the Nets endured almost nonstop drama.
Kenny Atkinson was fired in March 2020, and Steve Nash took over as head coach in what Irving ominously termed a "collaborative effort."
Irving took an unexcused leave of absence to attend his sister's birthday on January 7, 2021, refreshing rumors of his unreliability. The team traded for James Harden a week after that, but Irving's refusal to comply with COVID-19 vaccination mandates meant he didn't play for several months of that season. Harden was gone, for Ben Simmons, at the 2022 trade deadline.
Then came the impasse on a contract extension after the 2021-22 season, which bled into Irving seeking sign-and-trade opportunities to get out of Brooklyn. Finding none, he eventually opted into the final year of his deal.
Durant made and rescinded a trade request, Irving promoted a documentary with antisemitic views on social media and was suspended after initially refusing to apologize, and Nash was soon fired. Irving requested a trade ahead of the 2023 deadline, landing with the Dallas Mavericks for a return best described as surprisingly solid.
That's a lot to digest, but in all, the Nets won a single playoff series with Irving around, were constantly in the news for reasons that had nothing to do with basketball and ultimately reduced their roster to rubble.
The potential of the Irving signing was high, and Brooklyn might not have landed Durant without Irving. It's something of a miracle the Nets emerged from the saga in one piece, but I'm not sure they'd go down this road if they had it to do over again.
Grade: D
—Grant Hughes
Austin Reaves to Los Angeles Lakers (2021)
After winning the title in 2020, the Los Angeles Lakers suffered ill-timed injuries and fell short in the 2020-21 postseason.
The decision was made to trade most of the team's championship depth for Russell Westbrook. It proved a terrible choice that took about two years to unwind.
Within that chaos, though, the team initially signed Austin Reaves to a two-way contract, then a regular two-year deal before the season began. That lifeline proved to be a huge boost for the franchise.
By the time Westbrook was offloaded to the Utah Jazz at the February 2023 deadline, undrafted Reaves had evolved into one of the Lakers' best players behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Reaves averaged 13.0 points a game that season, shooting 52.9 percent from the field, 39.8 percent from three and 86.4 percent from the line. The Lakers went to the Western Conference Finals before falling to the Denver Nuggets.
It's a lesson that chasing established stars at high prices may make a splash, but growth can come from finding and developing "no-name" talent into playoff starters can make a real difference.
Grade: A
—Eric Pincus
Lauri Markkanen to Cavaliers (2021)
*Editor's Note: This signing was executed as a three-team trade.
Details: Lauri Markkanen agrees to sign-and-trade with Cleveland Cavaliers on four-year, $67 million contract, Chicago Bulls get Derrick Jones Jr., 2022 protected 1st-round pick from Portland Trail Blazers and 2023 second-round pick via Denver Nuggets (from Cavs), Blazers get Larry Nance Jr. (August 27, 2021)
The Lauri Markkanen three-team trade that landed him with the Cleveland Cavaliers in late August 2021 didn't seem like a big deal at the time, although the move has since created huge ripple effects for a number of franchises.
The Finn got $67 million over four years from the Cavs, a number that seemed high at the time given Chicago didn't appear to have real interest in keeping the restricted free agent. Cleveland didn't even fully guarantee the fourth year, with just $6 million of the $18 million promised.
Markkanen was fine for the Cavs, starting at small forward in big lineups that also featured Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. He averaged 14.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, made 35.8 percent of his threes and helped lead a young Cleveland team into the Play-In Tournament.
His real impact came in the summer, though, as Markkanen was part of the package that went to Utah for Donovan Mitchell. The deal has become a win-win for both parties.
Mitchell has made a pair of All-Star games, consistently been a top-three shooting guard in the NBA and signed a three-year, $150.3 million extension with the Cavs this summer. Markkanen has become the face of the Jazz, was named an All-Star and signed his own megadeal, getting $238 million in raises and new money over the next five years.
Nance lasted half a season in Portland before the Blazers shook up their core, sending him and CJ McCollum to the New Orleans Pelicans. Josh Hart, the main return in the trade, was also sent away after playing just 64 total games.
Chicago did well to get a first-round pick for a restricted free agent, although Portland's decision to rebuild means it has yet to convey. The pick remains lottery-protected for the next four years and could turn into a 2028 second-round selection if the Blazers don't make the playoffs by then.
Grade for Cavaliers: A
Grade for Blazers: D
Grade for Bulls: C+
—Greg Swartz
Jalen Brunson to New York Knicks (2022)
Jalen Brunson's contract with the New York Knicks incited everything from genuine concern and aggravation to full-scale troll jobs.
The contract was too much for a non-star. Or the contract was fine, but the lengths to which the Knicks went to get him were not. His arrival was a harbinger of doubling-down on mediocrity, not a path to putting the franchise on the title-contention map.
However, the deal has since aged into one of the NBA best bargains. After two years with the Knicks, Brunson has racked up an All-NBA second-team appearance, one All-Star selection and a top-five MVP finish. That is bonkers stuff.
Ridiculous still, if you poll Knicks fans, most are already prepared to put him on the organization's Mount Rushmore of stars—or at least in the conversation. That should register as ridiculous after just two seasons. Should be. It's not.
Brunson has served as a cultural touchstone for how the Knicks operate on and off the court, all while turning into a player good enough to headline a viable threat to emerge from the Eastern Conference.
Maybe the Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby acquisitions would have happened independent of Brunson. Probably not, but maybe. He is the reason each individual arrival means so much.
And he's not done. The 28-year-old put pen to paper on a four-year, $156.5 million extension this summer when he would have been eligible to receive a five-year, $269.1 million deal the Knicks absolutely would have given him next offseason.
If there is a downside to New York landing Brunson, it's yet to reveal itself. His time on the Knicks has so far exceeded even the most outrageously optimistic expectations.
Grade: A+++++
—Dan Favale
Bruce Brown to Denver Nuggets (2022)
The Denver Nuggets used their taxpayer mid-level exception ($13.3 million total, $6.5 million for 2023-23) to pay Bruce Brown Jr. in what looked like a good but not important signing.
Brown had started 45 games for the Brooklyn Nets a year prior, but his averages didn't jump off the page at 9.0 points with 4.8 rebounds. He shot well (40.4 percent) from three-point range, but his volume was so low (1.3 attempts) that it wasn't a reliable indicator that he had finally discovered his outside shot.
But the 28-year-old proved vital for the Nuggets, who had put together five perfectly matched starters but had little to no bench. He did whatever Denver needed, starting 31, scoring a career-high 11.5 points a game, shooting well enough to be a credible threat (35.8 percent from three) and helping the franchise win its first NBA championship.
Brown opted out after the title, and the Indiana Pacers rewarded him with a massive two-year, $45 million contract (later traded to the Toronto Raptors).
As good as the combination of Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon were in 2022-23, the Nuggets wouldn't have won the title without Brown.
Grade: A
—Eric Pincus
Zach Lavine to Chicago Bulls (2022)
The Bulls have celebrated the fourth-most championships of any franchise. They reside within one of the Association's marquee markets. They should have no business residing in the league's dreaded midsection year after year, in other words.
Yet, they've been sub-.500, play-in tournament losers each of the past two seasons, and their decision to give Zach LaVine a five-year, $215 million max contract is a major reason why.
While he was coming off of consecutive All-Star selections at the time, his reputation as an empty-calories producer was well-established. Medical red flags were already swirling around him, too. In fact, he had knee surgery less than two months before signing this pact.
Chicago ignored all the warning signs and forked over a fortune, anyway. The Bulls have been paying a steep price (literally and metaphorically) ever since. LaVine's injury issues are ongoing, his impact on winning remains dubious at best and his contract is routinely cited as one of the league's worst.
The Bulls are now trying to usher in an overdue rebuild, yet they can't find any takers for LaVine's albatross contract. This was a questionable decision in the moment, but it looks indefensible in hindsight.
Grade: D-
—Zach Buckley
Bradley Beal Re-Signs with Washington Wizards
Somehow, Bradley Beal got a quarter-billion dollars and the only no-trade clause in the league from a Washington Wizards organization that wasn't winning games, had no future and still decided it couldn't live without grossly overpaying its three-time All-Star wing.
To make matters worse, Beal later told the No Chill with Gilbert Arenas podcast: "There were no teams in the market, free agency-wise. I'm just being frank. There was nowhere else for me to go where I can be like, 'Oh, I can go win.' It was teams that strategically wasn't what I wanted."
Washington wasn't bidding against anyone for Beal, and it went with the full max anyway.
When healthy, the 31-year-old was a good player for the Wizards. But he only played 50 games for a floundering team in 2022-23 and was ultimately traded to the Phoenix Suns in a multi-team deal.
Washington's return included the pick that became Bilal Coulibaly, four first-round swaps and six second-round picks. Chris Paul also came aboard, and he turned into Jordan Poole. Your mileage may vary on that part of the exchange.
In the end, Washington managed to dump Beal and lean into a rebuild for the first time in years—thanks mostly to a Suns organization desperate for star-level talent at any price.
All's well that ends well, but we can't credit the Wizards because Phoenix was even more irrational then they were.
Grade: D+
—Grant Hughes
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