As with the best hitter, there's no debate about who will be the best pitcher on MLB's upcoming free-agent market.

It's Corbin Burnes, for the record.

The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner has had his eye on the open market for a while now, to such an extent that he barely entertained signing an extension last December.

"Every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you," Burnes said during an appearance on the Foul Territory podcast.

Let's be clear: Burnes is not in line for Juan Soto money, but the 29-year-old doesn't exactly have fewer reasons to be bullish on his earning potential than he did last year.

He's a relatively young, highly decorated ace pitcher. And while Jordan Montgomery might shudder at the thought, it shouldn't hurt Burnes' cause that he's represented by the one and only Scott Boras.

So, let's dive into his potential value and speculate on where he could sign this winter.

What Will Burnes' Value Be in Free Agency?

Five years ago, Burnes was a 24-year-old with an 8.82 ERA for the Milwaukee Brewers. He was one of the worst pitchers in MLB, if not the worst.

In the here and now, though, he has a case as the best of them all.

Since moving into Milwaukee's rotation on August 18, 2020, Burnes ranks second among starters with 775.2 innings and first with a 2.92 ERA. WAR-wise, the only pitcher in the same stratosphere during this span is Zack Wheeler.

True, things could be going better in Burnes' first year with the Baltimore Orioles. Though his 28 starts have yielded a 3.19 ERA and 169.1 innings, he's also operating with a career-low 22.3 strikeout percentage.

Yet the quality of his stuff—and his cutter, especially—still grades well, and even his below-average strikeout rate is an outlier amid a sea of red (i.e., good) metrics at Baseball Savant.

Though he'll inevitably be tied to draft compensation via the qualifying offer, Jeff Passan of ESPN expects Burnes to "warrant at least a seven-year contract" in free agency. That aligns with my own projection, which ballparks the right-hander's next deal at eight years, $288 million.

One can imagine teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals being willing and able to do a deal like that, but none of them is among the more practical fits for Burnes.

Here are 10 teams that are, ranked according to how much sense they make for him.

Note: All starting pitching WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference.

10-6: Yankees, Atlanta, Padres, Blue Jays, Red Sox

10. New York Yankees

Record: 80-59, 2nd in AL East

2024 SP WAR: 11.1 (7th)

Though they reportedly refused to part with Spencer Jones in a trade with the Brewers, the Yankees were nonetheless in on Burnes last winter. Maybe they'll circle back this winter, but presumably only if circumstances result in Gerrit Cole reaching free agency.

9. Atlanta

Record: 75-63, 2nd in NL East

2024 SP WAR: 13.7 (3rd)

Burnes joining forces with Chris Sale is a fun idea and, just sayin', Atlanta will have Max Fried and Charlie Morton and their $35 million in combined salaries coming off its books. However, this franchise has never spent so much as $100 million on a free agent.

8. San Diego Padres

Record: 79-61, 2nd in NL West

2024 SP WAR: 10.6 (8th)

Though San Diego's payroll has come way down in 2024, there are already rumors that it will make a play to reunite with Blake Snell this winter. Burnes will be a hypothetical Plan B if that doesn't pan out, but the catch is that he figures to cost substantially more.

7. Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 67-73, 5th in AL East

2024 SP WAR: 2.9 (27th)

Speaking of Snell, the Blue Jays were briefly in on him last winter. The subsequent collapse of their starting pitching makes it fair to wonder if they'll make a more aggressive play for an ace this time around, though whether this is the right moment for a splash is a fair question.

6. Boston Red Sox

Record: 70-69, 3rd in AL East

2024 SP WAR: 8.7 (12th)

The Red Sox are the team that should sign Burnes, and they can look back to the David Price signing for encouragement that such a risk could ultimately pay off. Alas, the organization is more frugal and more protective of draft picks than it used to be.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 81-59, 1st in AL East

2024 SP WAR: 6.9 (17th)

Who says Burnes' partnership with the Orioles has to be a one-and-done?

Definitely not Burnes himself, who sounded open to staying in Baltimore when he told Jon Heyman of the New York Post in June: "If it's a one-year thing, then hopefully we win it all. And if it turns into something more, that's great."

More recently in August, Burnes did an interview with Will Sammon of The Athletic in which he made it clear that he'll be prioritizing joining a winner in free agency. And not just for the short term, as he plans to do "a lot of research" on farm systems.

It's to this end, at least, that the Orioles will have a clear advantage. Even after all the great prospects they've graduated to the majors, B/R's Joel Reuter still had their system ranked as the fifth-best in MLB after the draft.

Money would have been the bigger question in years past, but perhaps not any longer now that David Rubenstein owns the team. His net worth is estimated by Forbes at $3.7 billion, more than twice the sum he paid to acquire the Orioles from the Angelos family.

However, any and all Rubenstein-led spending sprees remain strictly hypothetical. And relative to locking up the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday to extensions, re-upping with Burnes this winter shouldn't be the Orioles' No. 1 priority.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 84-55, 1st in NL West

2024 SP WAR: 5.6 (T-21st)

The Dodgers were an oft-mentioned landing spot for Burnes when he was on the trade market last winter. That obviously didn't pan out, but he still fits in Los Angeles in theory.

As a native of Bakersfield, California, Burnes grew up only about two hours away from L.A. And while he denied having a preference to return to California to Heyman, his current home is the same place as the Dodgers' spring training home: Arizona.

The Dodgers are otherwise another team with a strong farm system, especially if you buy MLB.com ranking it at No. 5 overall. And while they play in a bigger market than the ones Burnes is used to, that isn't a deal-breaker.

"It doesn't scare me," he told Heyman. "Fanbases in general want to see a guy come in and play hard, and do everything they can to help the team and the city. Whether it's a small market, mid-sized market or big market, you need to come in and compete every day."

If the Dodgers did back up a Brinks truck for Burnes, it would merely be the latest sign that they're willing to spare no expense in their pursuit of dynastic success. Their Opening Day payroll hasn't ranked lower than fifth in MLB since 2013.

Yet despite the injury issues they've had in their rotation this season, Burnes will be more of a luxury than a necessity for L.A. this winter. With Shohei Ohtani due to return to pitching in 2025 and Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gavin Stone also under contract, it isn't hurting for in-house options.

3. San Francisco Giants

Record: 68-71, 4th in NL West

2024 SP WAR: 4.9 (24th)

Southern California native though he may be, Burnes also has ties to the Bay Area.

He played college ball for St. Mary's, located to the east of Berkeley and Oakland in Moraga. He ended his career there with 120 strikeouts as a Junior in 2016, the third-most in a single season for the program's history.

Relevant? Perhaps not. But contrary to their archrivals down south, it won't be long before the Giants are in the market for a No. 1 starter.

They arguably have two in Logan Webb and Blake Snell, but the latter is a candidate to opt out and test the free-agent waters again. The Giants could simply look to re-sign Snell if that happens, but pivoting to Burnes would arguably mean a chance to upgrade.

Snell is as good as Burnes or anyone else when he's healthy and in a groove, but it would be a reach to identify that as his default state. He's also notoriously on the wild side, as his career walks-per-nine rate (4.1) is significantly higher than Burnes' (2.5).

Though the Giants don't have an especially good farm system, that is partially because they've recently graduated Patrick Bailey, Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald to the majors. And also Kyle Harrison, who's part of MLB's second-youngest pitching staff.

There is nonetheless the question of whether Burnes is in the Giants' preferred price range. They aren't short on revenue, but the franchise's tendency is more toward two- and three-year deals rather than long-term whoppers such as the one Burnes and Boras will be looking for.

2. Texas Rangers

Record: 66-73, 3rd in AL West

2024 SP WAR: 5.8 (20th)

The Rangers have a ton of name value among their starting pitching inventory, but not for much longer.

With 16 more innings pitched, Nathan Eovaldi will trigger a $20 million player option for 2025. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote Sunday that the veteran fireballer is expected to turn it down, thus becoming a free agent.

Also on their respective ways to the open market are Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney. Even with Scherzer limited by injuries to eight outings, we're nonetheless talking about a trio of hurlers who account for 42 percent of all the Rangers' starts in 2024.

Clearly, they'll need to be in the market for rotation help. And to this end, why not Burnes?

The Rangers are no strangers to big-game hunting, and they could otherwise hope to sell Burnes on their outlook. Their World Series run happened just last year. And while their farm system is shallow, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter are recently graduated cornerstone types and Kumar Rocker's return from Tommy John surgery is off to a promising start.

This is, however, a case where a franchise's past spending habits may not be indicative of future spending habits. The Rangers are one of the teams under the Diamond Sports Group broadcasting umbrella, and their current deal is only good for this year. Until further notice, this puts them in a sort of revenue limbo.

1. New York Mets

Record: 75-64, 3rd in NL East

2024 SP WAR: 8.3 (13th)

It's worth reiterating that all we're doing here is speculating, but the thing about the Mets is that they check every box as a prospective suitor for Burnes.

Big market? Check. And Steve Cohen has proved to be just fine with payrolls worthy of New York. For the last three years, the Mets have ranked second, first and first with their Opening Day payrolls. The total sum for all three is over $920 million.

Good farm system? Check. Reuter had New York's system as one of the 10 best in MLB after the draft, and that's even with Ronny Mauricio's stock temporarily deflated by a torn ACL.

Need? Check. The Mets have gotten solid starting pitching despite not having Kodai Senga for all but one start, but Luis Severino and José Quintana are only signed for this year and Sean Manaea is all but certain to opt out after the strong season he's had.

On top of all this, there's also a Milwaukee connection in play.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns formerly ran the Brewers' front office, and it doesn't seem as if past drama is still an issue. According to Sammon, Burnes "holds no grudges" and is said to have had a "great relationship" with Stearns.

Of course, it's Juan Soto who figures to be the Mets' top target in free agency. But if they miss out on him, Burnes would be a heck of a consolation prize.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.