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Re-Sign or Move On: Predicting the Outcome for Each MLB Team's Top 2024-25 Free Agent

Joel Reuter

As the 2024 MLB regular season winds to a close, many of the league's teams have already fallen out of postseason contention and turned their focus to the upcoming offseason.

Even for clubs still in the thick of the playoff hunt, it's never too early to start looking ahead to what promises to be another busy offseason of free-agent shuffling.

Ahead is a look at each team's top upcoming free agent, and a prediction on whether the front office will push to re-sign them or move on.

Roster construction, expected cost and recent production all played a role in predicting what each team would do.

Included is a list of each team's other notable free agents, as well as players with club, player or mutual options that will need to be decided on.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1B Christian Walker

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Prediction: Re-sign

A late-bloomer who did not become an everyday player until his age-28 season, Christian Walker has quietly racked up 143 home runs and 15.1 WAR in eight seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The 33-year-old seems like a strong candidate to be re-signed given his importance to the D-backs' success. The two-year, $40 million deal that Anthony Rizzo signed with the New York Yankees prior to the 2023 season is a reasonable expectation for his earning power given his age and production.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Paul Sewald, 1B Josh Bell, 3B Eugenio Suarez (club option), DH Joc Pederson (mutual option)

Atlanta Braves: SP Max Fried

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Prediction: Re-sign

With Spencer Strider recovering from Tommy John surgery and Charlie Morton also headed for free agency, Max Fried is too important for the Atlanta Braves to let him get away in free agency.

The 30-year-old will be the top starting pitcher on the market outside of Corbin Burnes this winter, so it might take a deal north of $100 million to get him signed. That's a major financial commitment for a team that already has a lot of long-term money on the books, but they simply can't afford to let him leave.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Charlie Morton, RP A.J. Minter

Baltimore Orioles: SP Corbin Burnes

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Prediction: Re-sign

Is there a more attractive landing spot based on long-term outlook than the Baltimore Orioles given their wealth of young, controllable offensive talent and still stocked farm system?

That will be the pitch to Corbin Burnes this winter as they try to keep the ace they paid a steep price to acquire this past offseason, and while he has scuffled a bit of late, he remains one of baseball's true top-of-the-rotation aces.

I predicted a seven-year, $255.5 million extension back in July, which would give him a $36.5 million annual value that checks in just ahead of the $36 million figure of Gerrit Cole's current contract. That's a ton of money, but there is not a better way for the O's to spend it.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Anthony Santander, SP John Means, OF Austin Slater, DH Eloy Jiménez (club option), RP Craig Kimbrel (club option), RP Seranthony Dominguez (club option)

Boston Red Sox: OF Tyler O'Neill

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Prediction: Move on

The Red Sox bought low on Tyler O'Neill during the offseason when he was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals, and he has proven to be one of the best pickups of the winter, posting a 135 OPS+ with 25 home runs and 2.4 WAR in 94 games.

Now they would be wise to let someone else pay for that performance.

The 29-year-old has only played over 100 games in a season once in his career while dealing with a wide variety of injuries, and in a market that is thin on impact bats, he should have no problem at least matching the five-year, $75 million deal that Andrew Benintendi got a few years ago.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Kenley Jansen, SP Nick Pivetta, C Danny Jansen

Chicago Cubs: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger

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Prediction: Move on

The first decision of the offseason belongs to Cody Bellinger.

The 29-year-old can opt out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $80 million deal this winter, and despite less-than-stellar numbers this season, his age and track record could still make another run at the open market an appealing option.

With Pete Crow-Armstrong emerging as the future in center field for the Cubs and Michael Busch settling in at first base, letting Bellinger walk and spending that money elsewhere should be a no-brainer for the Cubs if he does decide to opt out.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Kyle Hendricks, RP Jorge López, SP/RP Drew Smyly (mutual option)

Chicago White Sox: 3B Yoán Moncada

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Prediction: Move on

Once one of baseball's brightest young stars, Yoán Moncada showed flashes during his time with the Chicago White Sox, but injuries and inconsistency kept him from ever fully delivering on his potential.

The 29-year-old was a 5.2-WAR player in 2019, and he turned that performance into a five-year, $70 million extension. He has tallied just 6.4 WAR total in 403 games during the life of that contract, and an adductor strain in April has limited him to just 11 games this year.

His $25 million club option for next year comes with a $5 million buyout, and that is a price the club will no doubt pay as they look to turn the page.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Mike Soroka, SP Mike Clevinger, SP Chris Flexen

Cincinnati Reds: SP/RP Nick Martinez

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Prediction: Move on

Nick Martinez has been an extremely effective swingman since returning from a four-year stint in the Japanese League prior to the 2022 season, posting a 3.56 ERA in 326.1 innings spanning 30 starts and 117 relief appearances.

The 34-year-old has a $12 million player option for 2025 that he will likely decline in favor of more guaranteed years and money, and the Reds will likely go bargain hunting once again to fill out the pitching staff around their rising young arms.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Buck Farmer, RP Justin Wilson, IF Amed Rosario, RP Brent Suter (club option), RP Emilio Pagan (player option)

Cleveland Guardians: SP Shane Bieber

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Prediction: Move on

The Guardians generally steer clear of expensive long-term contracts, with the José Ramírez extension one of the few exceptions, and it has long looked like Shane Bieber's time with the team would come to an end when he reached free agency.

The question now is whether he might consider accepting a qualifying offer while he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery in April.

The 29-year-old tossed 12 scoreless innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two starts before hitting the injured list, and he could conceivably be ready to return around the All-Star break next year. A back-loaded, two-year deal similar to what Brandon Woodruff signed with the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason could also be a mutually beneficial approach.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Scott Barlow, SP Alex Cobb, C Austin Hedges

Colorado Rockies: OF Charlie Blackmon

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Prediction: Re-sign

As long as Charlie Blackmon wants to continue playing, expect the Colorado Rockies to be waiting with a contract in hand. That was made abundantly clear when they signed him to a one-year, $13 million extension last September that was likely more than double his market value had he reached free agency.

The 38-year-old is hitting .247/.321/.389 for a 92 OPS+ with 19 doubles, nine home runs, 43 RBI and 0.0 WAR in 104 games this year, but he is a franchise legend who is far more valuable to the Rockies than to any of the other 29 teams.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Daniel Bard, C Jacob Stallings (mutual option)

Detroit Tigers: RP Shelby Miller

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Prediction: Move on

The Tigers traded away their most notable upcoming free agent when they sent Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline, and that leaves them with little in the way of in-house free agency decisions to make.

They have a reasonable club option on former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize ($3.1 million) that will likely be exercised, but they will likely cut ties with Shelby Miller, opting for a $250,000 buyout rather than a $4.25 million salary in 2025. The 33-year-old has a 4.76 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 with two saves and five holds in 47 appearances.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Casey Mize (club option)

Houston Astros: 3B Alex Bregman

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Prediction: Move on

This is going to be one of the more compelling decisions of the offseason.

"There's really not a timeline on this right now and at some point, we will make an offer," Astros general manager Dana Brown told reporters in February. "I think we both respect that and that's pretty much the conversation. Look, we love Alex, we'd love to have him here. As far as a timeline, we just don't have it, but we will at some point make him an offer. We know how good he is and how good he's been for this franchise. It would be tough to look out at third base and not see that elite defense. And so at some point, we'll circle back and have those conversations."

The two sides never hammered out a long-term deal before the start of the season, and now the 30-year-old is poised to test the open market with a 115 OPS+ and 3.1 WAR in 125 games.

With Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker both headed for free agency after the 2025 season, the Astros will need to decide who to prioritize, and letting Bregman walk could end up being the most logical option.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Yusei Kikuchi, RP Kendall Graveman, RP Héctor Neris

Kansas City Royals: SP Michael Wacha

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Prediction: Re-sign

The Kansas City Royals struck gold when they signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha during the offseason, and while Lugo is locked up for next year, Wacha's contract contains a $16 million club option for 2025.

With a 3.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 144 innings—already his highest inning total since 2017—Wacha is a safe bet to decline that option in favor of a multi-year deal and more money, but that doesn't mean the Royals should close the book on his time with the team.

Tacking another guaranteed year on at the same price with a fresh two-year, $32 million deal might be enough to convince him to stick around.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Michael Lorenzen, RP Will Smith, IF Paul DeJong

Los Angeles Angels: OF Kevin Pillar

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Prediction: Move on

Considering Kevin Pillar was plucked from the scrap heap after he was cut loose by the Chicago White Sox in April, it's a shock to see him emerge as the team's best upcoming free agent.

The 35-year-old has a modest 96 OPS+ and 0.4 WAR in 74 games with the Angels, but he is hitting .327/.371/.533 with 15 extra-base hits in 116 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, and his appeal as a platoon option should help him secure a guaranteed MLB deal this time around after settling for a minor league contract last winter.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Matt Moore, IF Brandon Drury

Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Jack Flaherty

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Prediction: Re-sign

Slugger Teoscar Hernández and homegrown starter Walker Buehler also represent major free agency decisions for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but considering what a revolving door the starting rotation has been this year, they will need to seriously consider re-upping with trade deadline pickup Jack Flaherty.

Still only 28 years old, Flaherty has a 3.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 140.2 innings in a stellar bounce-back season after dealing with injuries and inconsistency the last several years, and now he is poised to be one of the most sought after arms on the market.

The Dodgers have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone penciled into three spots in the 2025 rotation, and a long list of pitchers on the mend from Tommy John surgery, so opening up their wallets to keep Flaherty around could become a top priority.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Teoscar Hernández, SP Walker Buehler, RP Daniel Hudson, RP Blake Treinen, OF Kevin Kiermaier, RP Joe Kelly, IF Enrique Hernández, IF Miguel Rojas (club option), C Austin Barnes (club option)

Miami Marlins: None

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That's right, folks. The Miami Marlins do not have a single upcoming free agent on the current 40-man roster after trading away several veteran pieces at the trade deadline.

In fact, the next player set to reach free agency on their roster is left-hander Jesús Luzardo, and he is still arbitration-eligible through the 2026 campaign.

Meanwhile, the only player with a guaranteed salary on the books beyond this year is Sandy Alcántara, who is owed $17.3 million in 2025 and 2026 with a club option for 2027.

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Willy Adames

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Prediction: Move on

Do I think the Brewers should re-sign Willy Adames: Yes

Do I think they will: No

Ever since Joey Ortiz was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade, he has quietly been viewed as the shortstop of the future while he settles into life in the big leagues this season as a third baseman.

Meanwhile, as the top shortstop on the market and one of the top bats overall, Adames is likely going to command a nine-figure payday this winter. That will almost certainly put him out of the cost-conscious Brewers price range.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Joe Ross, SP Frankie Montas (mutual option), SP Wade Miley (mutual option), C Gary Sánchez (mutual option)

Minnesota Twins: 1B Carlos Santana

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Prediction: Move on

Still going strong in his age-38 season, Carlos Santana has a 108 OPS+ with 24 doubles, 19 home runs and 58 RBI in a 2.2-WAR season, and he has been a major bargain playing on a one-year, $5.25 million deal.

The Twins have Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien and José Miranda all vying for playing time on the infield and fast-rising prospect Luke Keaschall also potentially in the mix for playing time, so moving on makes sense.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Max Kepler, RP Caleb Thielbar, RP Jorge Alcala (mutual option), OF Manuel Margot (mutual option)

New York Mets: 1B Pete Alonso

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Prediction: Re-sign

Slugger Pete Alonso reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million extension in June 2023, and according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he is expected to be seeking a payday of at least $200 million on the open market.

It's hard to see a world where he has that much more earning power than Freddie Freeman (6/$162 million) and Matt Olson (8/$168 million) given they both have more well-rounded games.

One way or another, expect him to find his way back to the Mets, whether he gets his asking price or ends up closer to that deal he initially turned down.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Luis Severino, SP José Quintana, DH J.D. Martinez, OF Harrison Bader, OF Jesse Winker, RP Adam Ottavino, RP Phil Maton (club option)

New York Yankees: OF Juan Soto

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Prediction: Re-sign

The optics of letting Juan Soto get away might be too damning for the New York Yankees not to meet his asking price, even if it takes a $500 million deal to keep him around.

At the same time, the Yankees have multiple holes to fill on a flawed, aging roster, so there is a case to be made for spreading that money around on multiple players capable of making an impact rather than pouring so much into one player.

There are worse strategies than going all-in on an Aaron Judge-Juan Soto tandem for the foreseeable future and hoping the pieces fall into place around them.

The Gerrit Cole opt-out decision will also be a major storyline, though the Yankees have the ability to void his opt-out power by adding a 10th year at $36 million to his current nine-year, $324 million contract.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Clay Holmes, 2B Gleyber Torres, OF Alex Verdugo, RP Tommy Kahnle, RP Jonathan Loáisiga, RP Tim Hill, SP Gerrit Cole (opt-out), 1B Anthony Rizzo (club option)

Oakland Athletics: SP/RP Ross Stripling

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Prediction: Move on

The Athletics were hunting for value when they signed Alex Wood to a one-year deal and acquired Ross Stripling in a trade with the San Francisco Giants, and they will likely move on from both underperforming veterans this winter.

Stripling, 34, has a 5.24 ERA in 80.2 innings this year, though the swingman has pitched well since being moved to the bullpen at the beginning of August.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Alex Wood, RP Scott Alexander, RP T.J. McFarland

Philadelphia Phillies: RP Jeff Hoffman

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Prediction: Re-sign

The Phillies paid a steep price to acquire rental closer Carlos Estévez from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline, and they could look to keep him around beyond this year with the ninth inning still up in the air.

However, there is a case to be made that setup man Jeff Hoffman is an even more valuable piece of the bullpen puzzle.

The 31-year-old has found a new level of success in the Philadelphia bullpen after flaming out as a starting pitcher and former top prospect. He has a 1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 with 10 saves and 18 holds in 60 appearances this season, and he was an All-Star for the first time.

It's going to cost a significant amount to keep him around, but keeping the relief corps intact should be at the top of Philadelphia's to-do list.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Carlos Estévez, SP/RP Spencer Turnbull

Pittsburgh Pirates: RP Aroldis Chapman

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Prediction: Move on

Aroldis Chapman helped the Texas Rangers capture a World Series title as a trade-deadline pickup in 2023, but he came at a steep price, as rising star Cole Ragans was sent the other way in that deal with the Kansas City Royals.

The 36-year-old has continued to blow his fastball by hitters in the late innings pitching on a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 3.42 ERA and 14.4 K/9 with 22 holds in 58 appearances.

His walk rate (6.3 BB/9) likely means he will need to settle for a setup role once again this winter, but plenty of teams will be interested in a similar one-year deal.

Other Notable Free Agents: DH Andrew McCutchen, C Yasmani Grandal, 1B Rowdy Tellez, OF Michael A. Taylor, RP Jalen Beeks, SP Marco Gonzales (club option)

San Diego Padres: IF Ha-Seong Kim

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Prediction: Move on

Jurickson Profar is likely going to finish in the top 10 in NL MVP voting, and Tanner Scott will be one of the top relievers on the market this winter, but the San Diego Padres' top upcoming free agent is still Ha-Seong Kim.

His defensive versatility and power-speed combination make him an extremely valuable player, and even slowed by injuries this season he has still been a 2.6-WAR player in 121 games.

All told, he has produced 15.3 WAR in 540 games over the life of his four-year, $28 million contract, and the 28-year-old is going to get a well-deserved raise on the open market. The Padres will do what they can to keep him, but there's a good chance another team will be willing to offer more, especially one with a glaring need at shortstop.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Jurickson Profar, RP Tanner Scott, C Kyle Higashioka, SP Martín Pérez, IF Donovan Solano

San Francisco Giants: SP Blake Snell

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Prediction: Move on

The San Francisco Giants cleaned up the mess that Scott Boras made last offseason when they signed Blake Snell and Matt Chapman to high AAV deals that contained opt-out clauses following the 2024 season, and Snell seems poised to exercise that opt-out and test the market once again.

Snell, 31, struggled to a 9.51 ERA through his first six starts while making two trips to the injured list with an adductor strain and a groin strain, but he has been lights out since returning to action on July 9.

In 10 starts since finally getting healthy, he has a 1.30 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 62.1 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a .117 average.

After last offseason's debacle, he should be more motivated to take the first good long-term offer that comes along this winter, and that could make it difficult for the Giants to retain him.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Michael Conforto, OF Mark Canha, 3B Matt Chapman (update: Chapman agreed to a six-year deal with the Giants on Thursday), IF Wilmer Flores (player option)

Seattle Mariners: 2B Jorge Polanco

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Prediction: Move on

The Mariners have an $11.25 million decision to make on Jorge Polanco this winter, as his contract carries a $12 million club option and $750,000 buyout for the 2025 season.

One of the best offensive second basemen in the league during his time with the Minnesota Twins, he has fallen short of that level of production this season, posting a 90 OPS+ while hitting .206/.298/.345 with 13 home runs and 37 RBI in 99 games.

The second base carousel will likely continue to spin in Seattle.

Other Notable Free Agents: DH Justin Turner, RP Yimi García

St. Louis Cardinals: 1B Paul Goldschmidt

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Prediction: Re-sign

There is mutual interest between Paul Goldschmidt and the St. Louis Cardinals in coming to terms on a new deal this offseason, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

The final season of his five-year, $130 million deal has been the worst of his storied career, as he is hitting just .247/.304/.420 for a career-low 99 OPS+ with 27 doubles, 21 home runs, 58 RBI and 1.5 WAR in 132 games.

That said, he is hitting .290/.337/.533 with eight home runs in 40 games since the All-Star break, so if he is willing to take a sizable pay cut over his current $26 million salary, he might still have enough left in the tank to make an impact.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Andrew Kittredge, DH Matt Carpenter, SP Kyle Gibson (club option), SP Lance Lynn (club option)

Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Brandon Lowe

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Prediction: Move on

Last offseason, the Minnesota Twins exercised their club option on second baseman Jorge Polanco, only to eventually trade him to the Seattle Mariners before the season started.

Expect a similar outcome between the Tampa Bay Rays and slugger Brandon Lowe this winter.

The 30-year-old has a 126 OPS+ and 15.8 WAR in seven seasons with the Rays, but he has played more than 110 games just once in his career, and the small market club will likely be motivated to shed his $10.5 million salary from the books.

They could also simply buy that option out for $1 million at the start of the offseason, but they should be able to find a taker on the trade market.

Other Notable Free Agents: None

Texas Rangers: RP Kirby Yates

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Prediction: Move on

The Rangers found one of the best bargains of the offseason when they signed Kirby Yates to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

The 37-year-old earned his first All-Star selection since 2019, and he has converted 25 of 26 save chances with a 1.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 in 51 appearances while slamming the door in the ninth inning.

Despite that success, the Rangers would be wise to let someone else pay a premium for his bounce-back season, especially considering his age and injury history.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Max Scherzer, SP Andrew Heaney, RP José Leclerc, C Carson Kelly, OF Travis Jankowski, SP Nathan Eovaldi (player option), RP David Robertson (mutual option)

Toronto Blue Jays: SP/RP Ryan Yarbrough

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Prediction: Re-sign

The Blue Jays offloaded all of their upcoming free agents at the trade deadline, bringing back Ryan Yarbrough from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the deal that sent Kevin Kiermaier and cash the other way.

The lefty swingman has a 3.44 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 83.2 innings this season, and he has been a useful piece of the pitching staff throughout his career while filling a variety of roles.

The Blue Jays could do worse than bringing him back to compete for the No. 5 starter job this offseason, especially now that they have had a chance to see him up close for the final few months of the season.

Other Notable Free Agents: None

Washington Nationals: SP Trevor Williams

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Prediction: Re-sign

Trevor Williams was trending toward being one of the most sought-after trade chips on the summer market when he went 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 56.2 innings through his first 11 starts.

However, he has been sidelined since the end of May with a flexor strain, leaving him as something of a wild card heading into free agency.

Bringing him back on another one-year deal in hopes of him picking up where he left off would be a solid approach for the rebuilding Nationals, with an eye on flipping him at the deadline if he does pitch well.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Patrick Corbin, 1B/OF Joey Gallo (mutual option)

   

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