Risk vs. Reward.

It's the question fantasy managers face every time they prepare to make a draft pick. What are the chances that a player will meet (or exceed) his asking price in drafts? What are the odds that player will fall flat and leave fantasy managers holding the proverbial bag?

Now, the later managers get into drafts, the less the former matters as opposed to the latter. When you're in the 12th round, there is no real risk to a player failing to meet expectations, so you can roll the dice on "lottery ticket" types with little fear of it backfiring. Even in Rounds 7 or 8, you can afford to gamble a bit—having a middle-round pick bust isn't ideal, but it also probably won't sink your season.

But there's an old saying. "You can't win your league on draft day, but you can lose it." One of the quickest ways to do so is to spend early-round picks on players who go on to disappoint in the season to come. Injuries are equal parts unfortunate and (often) unavoidable. But plenty of players enter the year with red flags surrounding their fantasy prospects.

Every one of the players listed here has an average draft position inside the first five rounds of fantasy drafts. Some will go on to justify (or even exceed) their asking prices. But there's also a real chance that they will not.

These players will go on to make (or break) quite a few fantasy teams in 2024.

Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday

Average draft position data courtesy of FantasyPros.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

ADP: QB5

There likely isn't a quarterback in the NFL riding a bigger wave of hype into the season than C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans.

Much of that hype is understandable. The 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year had 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, just five interceptions and a passer rating north of 100. Now he gets to run a Houston offense that added veteran running back Joe Mixon and star receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Throw in a solid offensive line, and all the ingredients are there for big numbers throwing the ball.

The problem, as Kate Magdziuk pointed out at Yahoo Sports, is that unlike most of the other high-end fantasy quarterbacks, Stroud offers little in the way of rushing upside.

"Keep in mind that there have been just two quarterbacks to finish top five at the position with fewer than 200 rushing yards over the past five seasons: Tom Brady (2021) and Aaron Rodgers (2021, 2020). Stroud, meanwhile, has never rushed for over 200 yards in a single season (even dating back to high school). As much as I hate fading a guy I could reasonably see finishing as the real-life NFL MVP, there's just not a high-enough likelihood that he returns significant value being drafted as early as he is."

Essentially, for Stroud to meet his ADP, he has to have a season throwing the ball similar to what Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys did a year ago—over 4,500 passing yards and 35-plus touchdown passes.

Stroud is capable of that. He's capable of leading the league in passing. But it's by no means a sure bet.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: QB6

When it comes to risk/reward at the quarterback position, there isn't a player in fantasy football who can touch Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts. Indy general manager Chris Ballard admitted as much, telling the Associated Press (via Kevin Patra of NFL.com) that he expects more than a few ups and downs with the second-year signal-caller.

"Look, there are going to be some roller-coaster moments," Ballard said. "Most quarterbacks, when they're young, they go through those moments, but you have to learn from them, grow from them, and keep moving forward. Just look around the league and it's a little bit up and down. The more he plays, the more he sees, the better he's going to get. I do think he will do a better job protecting himself, I do think is one area you'll see him improve. But look, eventually the game starts, and the instincts turn on. So, we'll see."

There's no denying Richardson's immense upside. In every game he finished for the Colts as a rookie, he was a top-five fantasy option. Richardson found the end zone on the ground in all of his games but one, and quarterbacks with that kind of rushing upside can be incredibly valuable.

But Richardson also finished only two games (and played in two others) in 2023 before a shoulder injury ended his season. He's a work in progress as a passer, as evidenced by an uneven preseason. There are going to be jaw-dropping plays. But there will be some cringe-worthy ones too—and every time he takes a shot on a running play, fantasy managers are going to wince.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: RB7

It's not that often that a week before the regular season starts fantasy managers find out that a top-10 running back in terms of ADP will be returning punts for his team.

By "not that often," I mean what the what?

But that's the bombshell that Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay dropped earlier this week, when he told reporters that third-year running back Kyren Williams would be the team's punt returner in 2024.

"Kyren Williams is going to be our punt returner. It's another opportunity for him to get touches and impact the game," McVay said. "You feel comfortable with that because of the confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers being able to spell him if need be. So that was what has made it tough for 'X' (Xavier Smith). He didn't do anything not to win the punt return job. It's just Kyren is a guy that we want to continue to have different ways that he can impact the game and that's one going to be reflected."

It's not exactly welcome news for fantasy managers, unless their league awards points for return yards. A large part of the reason Williams was fantasy's second-ranked running back in terms of PPR points per game last year was that he was also third at the position in touches per game at 21.7.

There's also the increased risk of injury to a player who missed five games last season. And the indication that Corum and Rivers could be a bigger part of the Rams offense than we expected.

Williams was already arguably the riskiest best among the top 10 running backs in ADP. Now that he will also be returning punts, that risk has only been amplified.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: RB9

Had Derrick Henry joined the Baltimore Ravens five years ago, the fantasy community would have lost its collective, well, you know. The NFL's most punishing running back playing for a team that's all about running the ball.

Mind you, as Adam Pfeifer wrote at FTN, there's plenty to be excited about with Henry even now.

"For starters, the zone-read, power run game with Henry and Lamar Jackson could be unstoppable. And given the gravity that Jackson has on opposing defenses, Henry would see a lot more open lanes to run the football. Since 2000, Baltimore running backs have accounted for three of the top-30 yards before contact per attempt seasons (among players with at least 70 attempts). Secondly, the touchdown upside really excites me. We just watched Gus Edwards, in this same Baltimore offense, lead the league in carries from inside the five-yard line (19), converting them into 12 touchdowns. And keep in mind that the Ravens don't call designed runs for Lamar Jackson from in close all that much, as he's seen a total of nine carries inside the 5-yard line over the last two seasons. Between his skill set and fits in this offense, 15-plus touchdowns is absolutely in play for Henry this season."

However, Henry is also a 30-year-old running back who led the NFL in carries last year with 272—the fourth time in the last five seasons that he has paced the league in that category. Henry has amassed over 2,000 carries in his career, and while Tennessee's poor offensive line played a part, Henry's 4.2 yards per carry last season tied a career low.

Add in that Henry has never been a big receiving threat (33 catches in 2022 was his career high), and it's not all sunshine and puppies.

The cold truth is that all backs break down at some point—even King Henry.

And there's a possibility this dream scenario turns into a nightmare.

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

ADP: RB10

If you've read my fantasy musings this summer at Bleacher Report, you know that I'm not a fan of Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane at his ADP. I don't believe his incredible per-touch efficiency from a year ago is sustainable. His six missed games last year are a genuine concern. And last I checked, Raheem Mostert is still the No. 1 running back in Miami.

We've been over the negatives surrounding Achane in 2024—multiple times. But some in the fantasy community believe that last year was just a taste. A tease. A harbinger of what's to come from an electrifying young talent.

You can count Danny Kelly of The Ringer among them.

"Achane was the most efficient running back in the league last year by a country mile, averaging a league-best 7.8 yards per carry while ranking first (among 49 running backs with 100 rushes) in both yards before contact and yards after contact per rush. Yes, Achane will likely cede goal-line opportunities to Raheem Mostert, but the explosive playmaker can make up for that by expanding his pass-catching role. He consistently separated when utilized as a de facto receiver last season, and there have been some preseason signals that his opportunities as a pass catcher could increase dramatically in year two. Bottom line, if Achane can stay healthy, he'll bring league-winning upside."

Achane's talent can't be denied—at least by anyone who saw him play in 2023. It's all a matter of workload and health. If Achane sees a major bump in touches and holds up under it, then even a drop in efficiency relative to last year won't stop him from challenging to be fantasy football's highest-scoring running back.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: WR4

In the long-ago days of 2023, Justin Jefferson was the No. 1 overall pick in quite a few fantasy drafts. The Minnesota Vikings wideout was coming off a season in which he led the NFL in both receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809).

We know what happened next. It wasn't his fault, but by just about any objective measurement Jefferson was a bust last year thanks to a hamstring pull that cost him seven games. However, even in that disappointing season, Jefferson topped 1,000 yards and ranked fifth among wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game.

The prevailing school of thought appears to be that barring injury, Jefferson is all but bust-proof. But as Pranav Rajaram wrote for 4For4, this year Jefferson faces another formidable challenge—catching wormburners from Sam Darnold in Minnesota.

"For the first time since Justin Jefferson entered the league in 2020, the Vikings will have a Week 1 starting quarterback who is not Kirk Cousins. That quarterback is Sam Darnold, after J.J. McCarthy's season-ending injury. Darnold has had quite an unstable career since being drafted third overall in 2018 and has not yet proven he can be the starting QB on a playoff team. If the Vikings offense takes a step back as a result of shaky quarterback play, it would do some harm to Jefferson's ceiling. Jefferson should see enough volume to stay fantasy-relevant even in a bad offense, but he would not put up the same numbers as the other receivers in this tier who have a far better offensive supporting cast."

It's admittedly hard to imagine Jefferson falling completely off the fantasy map with Darnold under center—he was a top-10 receiver over the last three weeks of last season catching passes from "quarterbacks" in Minnesota who are no better than Darnold.

But that's the problem. WR10 numbers from a first-round pick are disappointing. Were Jefferson's production to dip much more than that, teams that drafted him could be left scrambling to make up points for the second year in a row.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: WR7

While Justin Jefferson was bumming fantasy managers out last year, Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams had others doing cartwheels. Nacua came from nowhere to reel in more catches (105) and receiving yards (1,486) than any rookie in NFL history. He finished the season fourth in PPR points at his position.

However, much of that production came with Cooper Kupp on the sideline. With Kupp healthy again, there is concern that Nacua won't be able to back up last year's massive season. For her part, Liz Loza of ESPN believes many of those concerns are overblown.

"Over the 12 games in which Nacua and Kupp shared the field, Nacua tallied more targets (102 to 97), catches (62 to 59) and receiving yards (944 to 737). Nacua additionally registered a deeper aDOT (8.91) and drew a higher number of end zone looks (11). It's worth noting that Kupp still managed a healthy 5 catches and 60 yards per game, suggesting a floor of 11 PPR fantasy points per game (before factoring in any scores). Even if Nacua were to slip the No. 2 spot, the robust nature of Sean McVay's offense provides the second-year receiver with easy top-30 appeal. His upside is baked into his ADP, but with so much value at the position available later in drafts the risk of missing is heartily mitigated."

Still, phrases like "upside baked into his ADP" are the kind that should make fantasy managers nervous. So is the fact that Nacua's fantasy production was over 30 percent lower with Kupp on the field than off it. Knock 30 percent off Nacua's 2023 production, and Nacua goes from fantasy WR1 to high-end WR3.

That, intrepid reader, would be a problem. A big one.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: WR12

Full disclosure—I like Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders at his ADP this year. He led the AFC in targets last year and should once again receive a ton of targets for a Vegas team that will probably be playing from behind with regularity.

However, as Jason Katz pointed out at Pro Football Network, while quantity wasn't an issue for Adams in 2023, quality is starting to become one for the 31-year-old.

"Success against man coverage is very predictive of a player's ability. We use it with young players who have yet to really ascend as signs of an imminent breakout. We can also use it to see how older players are aging. Adams' decline does appear to be gradual. His 2023 open score (71—down from 99 in 2020) wasn't "bad"—it just wasn't at the level we expect from one of the best wide receivers of all time. Even if we assume further decline this season, it's unlikely to be precipitous. So, we have a player who is still good, but not super elite anymore. Adams went from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo to now Gardner Minshew. Do we expect the Raiders to have a good offense this year? Last season, Adams was the only wide receiver who finished top 24 in fantasy points per game that came from an offense that ranked bottom 10 in scoring."

Adams went from eighth among wide receivers in yards per route run in 2022 to 30th a year ago. From sixth in yards after catch among wideouts in 2022 to 25th in 2023.

Is Gardner Minshew II's mustache really going to help those numbers?

This isn't to say that the bottom will fall out with Adams this year. But the earlier you draft a player, the more his finishing under his ADP hurts. The wider the crack it leaves in the lineup.

And even this Adams supporter has to admit trusting him as a WR1 again this year is a risky play.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: TE1

This feels like fantasy heresy. I half expect a mob of townspeople to arrive at my house with pitchforks and torches and tar and feather me.

But here goes anyway.

For years, the tight end position in fantasy football was the kingdom of King Travis the First. As recently as two years ago, Kelce outscored the No. 2 tight end in fantasy by over 100 PPR points.

But last year, we finally started to see some gaps in his invincibility. Kelce failed to log 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015. He missed two games. And Kelce (gasp!) wasn't the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy football.

Kelce is also creeping up on birthday No. 35, and Dave Richard of CBS Sports pointed to age as one of the reasons Kelce could disappoint in 2024.

"It's sad to think about, but Kelce can't be great forever. No one can. He'll be 35 this season and is coming off a postseason where he was an absolute monster for four games, but a total disappointment in most of the nine games prior. The Chiefs, to their credit, made splashes at receiver this offseason with the idea that they can spread the ball around and not have to ride their hero tight end every week. I'll never suggest Kelce is a total bust, but I wouldn't be surprised if his target volume dipped, and his Fantasy production was more in line with several other tight ends."

Over that nine-game stretch—from Week 8 on last year, Kelce was a moribund ninth in PPR points among tight ends—behind the likes of Cole Kmet of the Chicago Bears and Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys.

Now, maybe Kelce still has one monster season left in him. But fantasy managers who spent a first-rounder on him last year had a front-row seat for what happens if he doesn't—and it isn't pretty.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: TE4

Full disclosure time (again)—I have been piling on Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride most of the summer. My reservations have been stated ad nauseum.

I don't see a massive target spike coming for McBride after the Cardinals improved the wide receiver corps. Without a massive target share, McBride could be hard-pressed to justify his ADP—not with a yards per reception for his career less than 10 and just four touchdowns over two seasons.

But my opinion is far from a unanimous one. There are no shortage of fantasy pundits who believe that McBride is headed for a breakout in his third professional season—including Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports.

"The chemistry that Kyler Murray and McBride developed in the back half of 2023 was one of the more pleasant surprises of the season. I am particularly bullish on the Cardinals' offense this season (more on that in the weeks to come), and think McBride is on the cusp of stardom. He is a valid option at all three levels, with confident hands that can snatch the football and cleanly transition to a runner after the catch. And most important: Murray trusts him. McBride is no slouch as a blocker, either, and can hold his own in-line, but the addition of third-round tight end Tip Reiman and Elijah Higgins' emergence should give McBride the opportunity to move off the line of scrimmage and around the formation, opening up interesting formation potentials for creative offensive coordinator Drew Petzing."

Were we talking about a mid-range tight end, the notion of McBride finishing in the TE7-10 range wouldn't be so bad—and that's a reasonable estimation of McBride's fantasy floor this season.

But spending a fourth-round pick on eighth-round production is not how fantasy championships are made.

Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.