There is a time and place for thoroughly reasonable reactions to the 2024 NBA offseason. This isn't one of them.

Offseason activity has long since slowed to crawl. That has given us plenty of time and space to mull over and munch on what's happened—and overreact accordingly.

Deliberately inflammatory takes can be tough to sit through. Nobody should want to predict or declare anything just for the sake of ragebait. That includes me.

The goal here is to instead suss out the sweet spot between superfluously safe and haughtily hallucinatory. I'm aiming for something along the lines of charmingly outrageous—bold, sometimes brazen, occasionally bananas, but never bats--t delirious.

To help show how married I am to each overreaction, I've included a handy-dandy Confidence Meter. This will measure how much I believe in each take I'm uncorking for every team, on a scale of one to 10.

Given the nature of this exercise, the Confidence Meter will seldom be through the roof. That's OK. It's actually the point.

And as for the overreactions themselves, they can be anything. Notably, they don't need to focus on specific offseason moves, but rather, what each team's summer suggests or proves or means for their future—short term, medium term, long term, whatever.

Goodbye, even-keeled, cautiously measured, completely rational analysis.

Hello, hyperbole.

Atlanta Hawks

The Overreaction: Jalen Johnson won't get an extension because...

Confidence Meter: 0.1

Nothing too damning needs to be at play if Johnson doesn't sign a rookie extension with the Atlanta Hawks. His market value is simply complicated to nail down.

Johnson entered the Most Improved Player running last season only to see a fractured left wrist and sprained right ankle cost him too many games. It was also the first year he averaged more than 15 minutes a contest.

Where Johnson's agent, Lucas Newton, should be pushing for max- or near-max money, the Hawks could want to see more. Or they could just want to use restricted free agency to their advantage. Johnson's modest cap hold next summer ($13.5 million) will let them explore other opportunities or just give them more time to balance their books. (Atlanta projects to be right around the salary-cap line before factoring in a raise off Johnson's cap hold.)

Everything I just outlined has exactly zero to do with this overreaction. The Hawks aren't going to wait on a Johnson extension just because they're cheap or cost-conscious, but because they'll want to maintain access to every avenue they can travel to regain control over as many of their next three first-round picks as possible.

Phrased another way: Would the San Antonio Spurs give Atlanta back its 2025 pick (outright) and, perhaps, its 2026 selection (swap rights) for Johnson? Could the Hawks sweeten the pot with the Los Angeles Lakers' 2025 first? Or the Sacramento Kings' 2025 first (top-12 protection)? Or a 2027 first from the Milwaukee Bucks or New Orleans Pelicans (more favorable)? Or as part of a larger trade that includes Trae Young? Or Onyeka Okongwu?

Our brutally honest Confidence Meter speaks for itself. But the absence of a Johnson extension thus far coupled with Atlanta's hazy trajectory when left untouched, the arrival of Zaccharie Risacher and the prioritization of Dyson Daniels in the Dejounte Murray trade paints the portrait of a Hawks team lusting after the chance to rebuild. And there's only way they can go from leering at it to actualizing it: in collaboration with San Antonio.

Boston Celtics

The Overreaction: The Boston Celtics are winning 60-plus games again.

Confidence Meter: 4.1

Boston hasn't done anything this offseason that allows for an overreaction. I considered going with Neemias Queta usurping Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman in the big-man pecking order thanks to opportunities he should receive while Kristaps Porziņģis recovers from a left leg injury. But I can't find my lensless glasses, so that overreaction is too hipster for me.

Spitting out another 60-win campaign is far from a given. The Celtics will remain the toast of the East at full strength, but they won't be at full strength until sometime in 2025.

And while they were 31-6 combined through the playoffs and regular season without Porziņģis last year, they have less to prove coming off a championship. Head coach Joe Mazzulla should, in theory, get more cautious with the top of his rotation, particularly when it comes to 38-year-old Al Horford and 34-year-old, fresh-off-a-gold-medal-run Jrue Holiday. This team officially exists to maximize itself for the postseason.

Except, what if they don't?

What if Jayson Tatum goes on a revenge tour following the (mind-numbingly stupid) discourse on his role with Team USA? What if Jaylen Brown uses his own Team USA snub to improve his handle and passing (and defense) even more? What if...well, what if Derrick White just remains an absolute sicko and once again crashes the fringes of All-Star consideration?

Bake in some questions for other top East teams, much of them health-related, and Boston might just be built to obliterate expectations by staving off the championship hangover for which so many will be bracing.

Brooklyn Nets

The Overreaction: Cam Thomas will have a usage rate north of 35.

Confidence Meter: 6.1

So obviously #EnteringThePooperForCooper will invariably leave the Brooklyn Nets to get weird—to #JustTryStuff. (Shout-out to the person much braver than I who's prepared to declare that Nicolas Claxton will run 50-plus pick-and-rolls as the ball-handler.) It has also left them with a scoring vacuum.

That's saying something. It wasn't like last year's Nets had a bevy of walking buckets. Next season's roster has even fewer options following the Mikal Bridges trade.

There's Cam Thomas, and then there's, well, more Cam Thomas. And after Brooklyn inevitably deals or moves on from Bojan Bogdanović and Cam Johnson, there will be even more Cam Thomas. This kid could have a usage rate north of 37, even 40, after February's trade deadline for all we know.

Settling on 35-plus usage feels right. Or not spicy enough. But while Thomas ranked 11th in usage last year, Luka Dončić was the league's only player with a mark over 35. So, as it turns out, this overreaction has enough unhinged poignancy to it.

Charlotte Hornets

The Overreaction: LaMelo Ball makes an All-NBA team.

Confidence meter 4.1

This take is incredibly flammable on two fronts. First, it assumes LaMelo plays in enough games to qualify for All-NBA honors. That's no small ask when he's missed a combined 106 games over the past two seasons and racked up 65-plus appearances (or its equivalent) in a single year just once since entering the league.

Then, on top of that, LaMelo must also register as a top-20 name to earn real consideration for a 15-player honor. A quick scan of the past few All-NBA squads is enough to make you think this is unhinged.

And yet, LaMelo is talented enough to do it. He expanded his offensive arsenal last year to include more full-throttle drives to the basket and still boasts preternatural shot-making from the perimeter and "You're a wizard, LaMelo" vision.

To that end, just two other players have ever averaged at least 20 points and seven assists through their first four seasons while making as many threes as LaMelo: Luka Dončić and Trae Young. LaMelo isn't them, but keeping this company suggests (proves?) what many have suspected all along: The only thing standing between him and full-blown stardom is availability.

Chicago Bulls

The Overreaction: Coby White will be traded by the 2025 deadline.

Confidence Meter: 0.4

Surprise, surprise, things are getting awkward in Chicago. The Bulls might be rebuilding after moving on from Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan and letting Andre Drummond walk, but they received exactly zero first-round picks as part of those exits and still have a bunch of veterans on the roster, so we can't be sure.

Forward-looking teams would look to actualize this overreaction. White is coming off a season in which he contended for Most Improved Player honors thanks to a more variable and glitzier skill set that featured everything from better shot-making, steadier offensive quarterbacking and tougher-to-guard on-ball speed. His trade value will never be higher than it is now, working off a career year with two summers to go until he can explore free agency.

At only 24, White can theoretically be part of whatever path the Bulls are headed down. But they're years away from contention, and he won't be on a bargain-bin deal forever. To that end, Chicago can't hope to extend him on his current contract. A 140 percent raise off his 2025-26 salary would put him around $18 million in 2026-27. That's not going to fly.

The Bulls could risk letting him hit unrestricted free agency and pay him accordingly. Knowing them, that's the most likely outcome—and why our Confidence Meter is so low. If they're serious about repositioning themselves for the bigger picture, though, moving White for additional bites at the draft apple they don't currently have should be considered a distinct possibility, if not a priority.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Overreaction: Evan Mobley will double his three-point attempts per game.

Confidence Meter: 5.6

Hiring Kenny Atkinson to replace J.B. Bickerstaff suggests the Cleveland Cavaliers are searching for a more inventive offensive structure. And if Atkinson's early years with the Brooklyn Nets are any indication, any innovation will include advancing the team's three-point volume even further than it went last season.

Evan Mobley will be invited to that party—and attendance is mandatory.

Doubling his three-point attempts per game is a steep ask. It helps that he's working off a low baseline. Mobley finished last year averaging 1.2 looks from deep—low volume that's right in line with his career mark (1.2).

From February on, though, he attempted 1.8 per game (while draining them at a 41.7 percent clip). That's not a far cry from the 2.4 he must reach for this overreaction to hit.

Dallas Mavericks

The Overreaction: The Dallas Mavericks will rank in the top five of both offense and defense.

Confidence Meter: 5.8

Dallas came close to completing this feat after last season's trade deadline, placing inside the top seven of both points allowed and points scored per possession. Maintaining that performance for 31 games is one thing. Sustaining it for a full 82 is an altogether different beast.

Oklahoma City and Boston did it last year. Both are good candidates to do it again. The Mavericks might belong right there with them.

This feels least controversial on the offensive end. Dallas not only has Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but it also experimented playing at different speeds last season and can now stretch defenses beyond coherent function following the addition of Klay Thompson.

Climbing into the top five of points allowed per possession will be more challenging. P.J. Washington and Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford will shoulder enormous burdens when the Mavs play all three of Dončić, Irving and Thompson. And Dallas will need at least one of Dante Exum, Quentin Grimes or Naji Marshall to level up from last year to fully trust its point-of-attack bandwidth.

Paint me all shades of optimistic.

Exum already has the defensive goods and becomes playable across longer stretches if he bumps up his two three-point attempts per game. Marshall is better suited tussling with combo wings and forwards, but he can handle smaller advantage creators who don't operate at warp speed.

Grimes is the swing piece. Injuries, pecking-order realities and an overall poor performance derailed his third season, but he spent his first two years in the league defending his ass off and canning triples. Guarding up can get thorny depending on the size of the opposition's wings, so his capacity to play with both Luka and Kyrie may have a cap. At the very least, though, he can pester the best opposing guard inside Dallas' one-star lineups.

Denver Nuggets

The Overreaction: Julian Strawther is more important to the Denver Nuggets next season than Peyton Watson.

Confidence Meter: 4.9

Bidding farewell to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is both Denver's way of cheaping out and tripling-down on its confidence in the up-and-comers. The latter is predominantly tied to Christian Braun, who figures to join the starting five and who comes closest to replacing KCP's defense (he might be better on that end, to be honest) and three-point volume.

Watson is almost universally considered the higher-end prospect between himself and Strawther—and perhaps even Braun. It showed in his usage last season. But Strawther was a rookie, and it looked like he might become a rotation regular anyway until a left ankle injury derailed that outlook.

Denver needs to give him another crack at it—for the sake of spacing.

The Nuggets finished dead last in three-point-attempt rate last season and just lost their third highest-volume threat from beyond the arc. Nikola Jokić is transcendent beyond comprehension, but there are limits to how much his dominance can overshadow basic math.

Strawther didn't fare too well from distance in limited action, hitting just 29.7 percent of his treys. That's problematic. But his rate of 9.1 deep-ball attempts per 36 minutes is a mode of operation Denver needs. Watson is neither wired nor dangerous enough off the catch or in motion to even try floating that kind of volume. And with Russell Westbrook now figuring into the rotation, the value of floor-spacers, both proven and theoretical, increases tenfold.

Detroit Pistons

The Overreaction: The Detroit Pistons will rank in the top 10 in three-point-attempt rate.

Confidence Meter: 3.9

Detroit finished 29th in three-point-attempt rate last season—was just 26th after Simone Fontecchio's debut—so anyone who thinks this isn't spicy enough needs to rethink their interpretation of the Scoville Scale. If anything, this represents too much overcorrection.

Adding (and retaining) actual floor-spacers helps. Fontecchio and Malik Beasley will get 'em up. So will Tim Hardaway Jr., albeit not in a way that makes you totally comfortable.

Tobias Harris is First Team All-Dude-Needs-To-Shoot-More-Threes. I won't guarantee he'll crank up the volume in Detroit, but he's certainly capable of it. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey both have room for upticks as well—and the ability to deliver them.

Things get prickly looking at the rest of the roster. Isaiah Stewart saw his volume dip in more minutes last season and is only a value add in this department if he's playing at the 5.

More critically, neither Ron Holland nor Ausar Thompson project to unbottle a ton of triples. Clearing the top 10 in three-point-attempt rate gets dicey if the Pistons are devoting meaningful minutes to both.

I remain undeterred. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff just saw the utility of nudging up overall outside volume while in Cleveland, and the mere presence of more serviceable vets increases the offensive-competence factor. And remember, this isn't about the Pistons making their treys. It's about turning long-range looks into a larger part of their offense.

Golden State Warriors

The Overreaction: A blockbuster trade is totally happening before the February deadline.

Confidence Meter: 6.2

Allow me to direct you toward what Stephen Curry said to Andscape's Marc J. Spears earlier this summer as part of his response to being asked about whether he could stand finishing his career on lackluster teams like Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki (emphasis mine):

"I've always said I want to be a Warrior for life. At this stage in my career, I feel like that's possible. And you can still be a competitive, it doesn't mean you guaranteed the championship. It doesn't mean winning. Winning is always a priority, but obviously you're realistic. It doesn't mean that it's going to happen if you stay the course. You need to shake things up and keep reimagining what it looks like to evolve with what league is at right now, with where some of these talented teams are now...I want to win. Let's put it this way, it's a longwinded way of saying that it if it is a situation where you're a bottom feeder and it's just because you want to stay there, I'd have a hard time with that. But I don't think that's going to be the reality."

Does this sound like someone who would have signed a one-year, $62.6 million extension that keeps him with the Golden State Warriors through 2026-27 without a grander plan in place? I mean, maybe. Perhaps. But let's just assume no.

Dalliances with Paul George and Lauri Markkanen suggest the Dubs are serious about landing a marquee veteran name. They'll get one by the trade deadline.

Don't ask me who. (Yes, I'm trolling you—you—with the picture.) Or for what. (t'll probably be for a boatload of picks to protect at least one of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski.) The trade market will develop as the season wears on. That's when Golden State will strike.

Houston Rockets

The Overreaction: Reed Sheppard averages under 20 minutes per game as a rookie.

Confidence Meter: 3.9

Am I putting this out in the universe to manifest the inverse? Who's to say, really?

Me. I'm to say. And I totally am.

Not sure who needs to hear this, but the Houston Rockets are stuh-acked. They have at least 11 guys on the roster who should get minutes. And that number can climb as high as 15 depending on how you feel about Jeff Green, AJ Griffin, Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale.

Minutes could be tough for Sheppard to come by as a result. Houston doesn't fancy itself a contender, but it's not in full-tilt rebuilding mode. And while the Rockets don't have anyone who's overly ball-dominant, the obligation to play Fred VanVleet and continuing to plumb the depths of Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jalen Green gums up the waters.

Much like Thompson and Whitmore, Sheppard doesn't need the ball to make an impact. That may help his case. So, too, does Houston's need for floor-spacing. Yet, a team with this many options seems liable to slow-play the integration of the new kid on the block—at least until the trade deadline.

Everything I've just blathered on about renders this a somewhat-proper reaction rather than a sloshed-out overstatement. But Sheppard is a top-three pick. These dudes tend to play. The last top-three selection to average fewer than 20 minutes per game while making at least 25 appearances? That would be Jaylen Brown—all the way back in 2016-17.

Indiana Pacers

The Overreaction: At least one of Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker will finish the season on a different team.

Confidence Meter: 6.9

Moving off two top-10 picks still on their rookie contracts is so unlike the Indiana Pacers. But their roster construction and financial outlays are starting to get weird when viewed through the lens of Mathurin's and Walker's futures.

Bringing back both Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin doesn't give Walker a clear path to playing time at the 4. The Pacers can and will (and have) deployed him as a 3. I can see him getting there. But he's not there yet.

Mathurin's place is tougher to square away. There's room for him in the offense if he can continue making quick decisions with the ball and increase his catch-and-fire triples, but he is decidedly not a wing, and Indy has now invested in three guards over the longer term.

Indeed, Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard can all be considered 1s. Mathurin is more like a pure 2. Given how much time Hali and Nembhard will spend together, as well as Ben Sheppard's sturdier defense, the backcourt rotation profiles as overstuffed.

This needn't be about who the Pacers have, either. Look at who they don't have: a combo wing beyond Aaron Nesmith and, maaaybe, Walker.

Along with the latter, Mathurin remains an intriguing trade chip if Indy decides to address its biggest hole. And relative to the window of Hali and Pascal Siakam (right the hell now), in addition to the rising costs of the core, scouring the market for upgrades shouldn't actually be a matter of if. It needs to be an issue of when.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Overreaction: Kawhi Leonard finishes this contract on a different team.

Confidence Meter: 8.2

If you figure out what the Los Angeles Clippers are doing, please, please, pretty please let me know.

Allowing Paul George to walk in the face of second-apron concerns that don't make much sense relative to what we know they offered him is confusing as hell. This team's present and future is much shakier as a result.

Having James Harden and Kawhi Leonard on the roster to open the Intuit Dome is an organizational-marketing must. But for how much longer will the Clippers pretend they're inside the inner circle of contenders? Or even a guaranteed playoff squad?

Harden is entering his age-35 season, has a ton of miles on his treads and has racked up more new teams since 2021 (four) than playoff series wins (three). Leonard is heading into his age-33 campaign, and while he churned out an All-NBA performance last year, he yet again finished the season on the sidelines.

Something will give, maybe even implode, that causes Los Angeles to pivot, less-than-ideal draft-pick situation and all. It might even happen next season. And that wholesale audible will entail moving Leonard before his new three-year deal is over.

Will he go happily? Might he orchestrate his own exit? Could he simply retire after being moved outside Los Angeles? Do the Lakers somehow enter the fold?

I'm not here to reconcile the details and fallout. I'm just here to say, with a faint measure of half-rational confidence, a Kawhi trade will happen at some point over the next couple of years.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Overreaction: This is LeBron James' last season with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Confidence Meter: 0.2

Meaningfully overreacting to the Lakers' offseason is tough, because they did basically nothing. JJ Redick is now head coach, and they drafted Dalton Knecht, but delivering over-the-top analysis on either rings hollow when they have yet to make their official debuts and they don't have track records off which to work.

Zeroing in on the "basically nothing" part is the way to go. We could say they miss the playoffs, but that's too level-headed. Attempting to forecast LeBron's future is much more instructive.

James is entering his age-40 season and just took a slight pay cut to keep the Lakers beneath the second apron. With a 2025-26 player option looming, we can insist Los Angeles will be compelled to upgrade its roster before the deadline. But they have not-so-subtly prioritized asset preservation beyond the LeBron era ever since jettisoning Russell Westbrook.

Standing relatively pat shouldn't sit right with James if he wants to contend again before he retires. And the "Look, you get to play with Bronny James!" crutch will only support so much weight 11 months from now, when LeBron and Bronny will have actually played together.

Take this to mean whatever you like. Am I Lakers hater? Closet Golden State Warriors fan pining for Stephen Curry and LeBron to link up? Just another idiot with a keyboard and a platform? Some combination of all three? I am whatever you need me to be. But before you get enraged, consider circling back to the confidence meter, which very clearly conveys that this is more of a "Hey, I had to come up with one of these for every team!" musing rather than a prediction steeped in conviction.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Overreaction: Zach Edey closes more games than Marcus Smart.

Confidence Meter: 2.0

Edey is clearly going to be a massive part of what the Memphis Grizzlies are doing right out of the gate. So much of what he does best—gargantuan screens, rebounding, rim protection, just generally being large—can unlock those around him. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will enjoy the space he creates on his picks, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is free to be his best self on defense, even if certain offenses are able to yank the rook outside the paint.

Could Eddy's onset importance result in his becoming more of a crunch-time staple than a (healthy) Marcus Smart? Probably not.

Memphis brought in Smart to basically replace both Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks. That's not someone you relegate to bystander duty during high-stakes moments.

There will also be situations in which the Grizzlies are best served closing with JJJ in the middle. Or the trend of their dominating the JJJ-Brandon Clarke minutes could prompt them to lean that direction.

On the flip side, what if Vince Williams Jr. proves to be a more reliable shooter than Smart? Or what if the Grizzlies decide they need Luke Kennard's shot-making and movement more than Smart's defense?

Buying stock in this overreaction was more tantalizing prior to GG Jackson II undergoing right foot surgery. The Confidence Meter has been adjusted accordingly. Take this instead as a nod toward how valuable Edey may be to Memphis from the onset of his career.

Miami Heat

The Overreaction: Kel'el Ware finishes the season as a starter.

Confidence Meter: 1.4

Miami is coming off the kind of offseason from which it's difficult to meaningfully overreact. We could go with something like "Contract-year Jimmy Butler goes undefeated in practice scrimmages with third-stringers against the Heat's other starters," but frankly, that doesn't move me. Been there, heard that before, ya know?

Teams with an urgency to win don't usually shoehorn a rookie into the starting five. They're much less likely to do so when said newbie plays their second-best player's position.

Still, head coach Erik Spoelstra has flirted with dual-big setups in the past. We saw it last year when Kevin Love began the season starting alongside Bam Adebayo, a partnership that was scrapped posthaste. Miami also toyed with slotting Omer Yurtseven next to Bam many moons ago.

So really, this isn't as farfetched as it might seem—doubly so if the Heat prefer to keep running Jaime Jaquez Jr. off the bench and want a little more defensive gall out of the spot beside Bam than Nikola Jovic provides. And if Adebayo can parlay his spacing from the corners with Team USA to regular-season play, getting to this dual-big look gets much more justifiable.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Overreaction: At least one of Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis Jr. gets traded.

Confidence Meter: 0.9

Yours truly tends to be higher on the 2024-25 Milwaukee Bucks than consensus. They are, at this writing, my biggest threat* to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference

Venturing beyond next season changes the calculus. The Bucks will be right there so long as they have Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the core around him is either aging out, about to be priced out or both.

Lopez, Middleton (2025-26 player option) and Portis are all slated for free agency in 2025. General manager Jon Horst, meanwhile, has pretty openly discussed how Milwaukee is trying to hedge its bets against the future with the number of cost-controlled bodies on the roster, including recent draft picks AJ Johnson (No. 23) and Tyler Smith (No. 33).

None of the current youngsters come close to supplanting the aforementioned three. The Bucks don't even have a developing big man on the roster behind Lopez and Portis, unless you're smitten with 28-year-old Anžejs Pasečņiks. But the financial logistics of keeping the band together are only getting harder. Milwaukee could let all three of Lopez, Middleton and Portis walk next summer, and it'd still have a difficult time eking out $20 million in cap space (assuming Pat Connaughton picks up his player option).

Tough decisions can (and probably should) wait until they're front and center after 2024-25. Moving any one of these three while actively upgrading the rotation will be hard. But losing one or more of them for absolutely nothing over the summer would be worse.

(*Subject to change depending on how I'm feeling about Cleveland, New York or Philadelphia on any given day.)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Overreaction: Minutes without Anthony Edwards are going to be a bloodbath.

Confidence Meter: 6.7

Minnesota won the time it played without Edwards last year, outscoring opponents by a total of 97 points in the almost 1,200 minutes he spent off the floor.

That's not happening again.

More pointedly, the offense during those stretches is going to get worse. And that's saying something. The Timberwolves placed in the 29th percentile without Edwards of points scored per possession. They were hardly better off when isolating the stretches in which Mike Conley played (30th percentile).

Forking over a 2030 first-round swap (top-one protection) and 2031 first-rounder for Rob Dillingham was an admission Minnesota doesn't have an in-house solve to this problem. It still doesn't.

Dillingham is 19 years old and looked overmatched, at times, against NBA-er size and length during summer league. He could be the bedrock of Edwards-less units down the line. It's almost assuredly not happening from the onset of his career.

The Timberwolves should be invested in playing him during those stints anyway. You don't surrender your last two draft assets if the front office and coaching staff aren't aligned on juggling the urgency to win and developing the eighth-overall pick. There will be growing pains.

Limiting Dillingham's exposure early doesn't guarantee Ant-less moments will get easier, either. Minnesota's alternatives include hoping 36-year-old Conley doesn't fall off, turning to soon-to-be-37-year-old Joe Ingles and, potentially, P.J. Dozier. Experimenting with Dillingham is the way to go. Even if it comes at an immediate opportunity cost, the Timberwolves should be better off long-term and can reassess his spot in the rotation come playoff time.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Overreaction: Javonte Green plays over 1,600 minutes.

Confidence Meter: 3.8

End-of-August signings aren't supposed to sponge up major rotation minutes. The New Orleans Pelicans are built for Javonte Green to rank among the mother of all exceptions.

Conventional center minutes will be ultra-hard to come by if nothing changes. You can only play Daniel Theis and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl so many minutes, and a team hoping to enter the top six of the Western Conference shouldn't be regularly depending on Karlo Matković or Yves Missi.

Smart money is on New Orleans making a move to shore up the center rotation, even if it's on the margins. Then again, few could have predicted the Pelicans would enter September with this current roster construction.

For now, Zion-as-the-big lineups are shaping up to be more than semi-frequently used toll in the belt. Herb Jones, Trey Murphy and Brandon Ingram have all proven critical to maximizing the defense (and insulation of Zion) during those minutes. The calculus has to change if these arrangements start getting more than situational floor time.

Green is listed at 6'4" but has always moonlit as someone to throw at forwards and outright bigs. And though the Pelicans shouldn't want to play him more minutes than he's ever seen before (career high is 1,519), they may have no choice.

This state of affairs seems inextricably tied to the Ingram situation. If New Orleans doesn't move him, it'll be hard-pressed to find contingency deals on the in-between scale. So much of its best salary-matching tools are either making blockbuster-sized money (Ingram, CJ McCollum), not earning enough to do anything of substance (Jordan Hawkins) or named Herb Jones.

My gut tells me the Pelicans will embrace an imperfect solution that doesn't heavily rely on Javonte Green minutes. At the moment, though, this projection is closer to an appropriate reaction relative to how their offseason unfolded.

New York Knicks

The Overreaction: Julius Randle spends 33 percent or more of his minutes at center.

Confidence Meter: 2.9

Randle has never logged more than 5 percent of his minutes in a single season at center since joining the New York Knicks in 2019. That's about to change, because it must.

To what end it changes is debatable.

Head coach Tom Thibodeau's penchant for conventional rim protection at the 5 renders a 33 percent share lunacy. And it might be, if he had a bunch of alternatives.

After Mitchell Robinson, New York's primary options include Precious Achiuwa, Jericho Sims and inevitably, once he's waived by Charlotte, Taj Gibson. That's not enough bankable big-man play for Thibs to skirt using a Randle-OG Anunoby frontline. Especially given Robinson's injury history and typical minutes workload.

This setup is also tantalizing even if the Knicks are at full strength or able to land another center. Randle is a mismatch nightmare at the 5 on offense, and Anunoby can handle large-human responsibilities at the other end.

Allocating one-third of Randle's minutes to this lineup structure still amounts to quite the leap. But this is also New York's most efficient path to playing its best guys.

Rolling with Robinson or someone else ensures the Knicks will almost always have two of Randle, Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo on the bench. A Randle-Anunoby frontcourt yanks that number down to one. And it can shrink to zero if and when Thibs pivots to this look during Jalen Brunson's breathers.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Overreaction: The Oklahoma City Thunder will have four players make an All-League Team.

Confidence Meter: 6.4

Oklahoma City is kind of like the collective analog of Victor Wembanyama. You can tell me anything, at all, about how high it climbs, and I'll just believe you.

Because the Thunder are the enemy of hyperbole.

Settling on four separate All-League entrants is spicy. It also doesn't feel hot enough. Let's break down the primary candidates, and which year-end honors they could realistically grab:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: MVP, All-NBA, All-Defense
• Jalen Williams: Most Improved Player, All-NBA, All-Defense
• Chet Holmgren: Most Improved player, All-Defense, All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year
• Alex Caruso: All-Defense
• Lu Dort: All-Defense
• Isaiah Hartenstein: All-Defense, Sixth Man of the Year

To be honest, I am tempted to ratchet this up to five. But four-out-of-six is bananas. And this says nothing of someone like Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe or Cason Wallace sneaking into Sixth Man of the Year discussions.

Once you get past the SGA, J-Dub and Chet trio, though, roles could fluctuate enough—and players could cannibalize enough consideration from one another—to complicate or compromise their awards candidacy.

Orlando Magic

The Overreaction: The Orlando Magic will trade two firsts or the equivalent by the trade deadline.

Confidence Meter: 3.4

Adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope serves three purposes. It ups the terror factor of what was already a top-two defense, improves the offense's overall spacing and off-ball movement and increases the value of the 2025 Denver Nuggets pick (top-five protection) Orlando owns.

Does KCP also give the Magic a ceiling noticeably above the league average on offense? Debatable. That more so probably depends on the continued growth of Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Anthony Black.

Getting in-house jumps still doesn't feel like it will playoff-proof the offense. And that needs to be the goal. Orlando has entered that phase of its existence.

So let's go ahead and predict the Magic will make stuff happen at the trade deadline in service of fully weaponizing the offense with an organizer-type—and consolidating an ultra-deep, possibly overcrowded, rotation.

Granted, as my confidence meter implies, I won't be holding my breath. Orlando has prioritized letting its incumbents grow at every turn. But they have the assets to make stuff happen without knifing into the core, and their timeline is immediate enough to try addressing needs with a degree of real urgency.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Overreaction: This team needs to trade for another starter.

Confidence Meter: 4.6

The Philadelphia 76ers should have no regrets for what they did this offseason. They landed the best free agent available in Paul George, and then proceeded to surround their Big Three with a capable supporting cast.

That's not to say this roster is perfect. It's not. George and/or Caleb Martin will have to operate heavily at the 4, and Philly's primary off-guard options are Kelly Oubre Jr., 38-year-old Kyle Lowry, 35-year-old Eric Gordon and 34-year-old Reggie Jackson.

Assembling a killer five-man combo takes little to no effort. George, Martin, Oubre, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is one helluva quintet. Whether the Sixers should start all of them at the jump is arguable. They probably shouldn't. The trickle-down effect on their secondary lineups will quickly get uncomfortable.

Bringing Oubre's floor-running and scoring off the bench alongside Lowry feels like the no-brainer solve. The Sixers can get away with Gordon at the opening tip, and Guerschon Yabusele can slide into the starting 4 spot if head coach Nick Nurse wants Martin in the second unit.

Go ahead and read that last paragraph back. Philly has championship aspirations. Turning to Yabusele and a trio of sub-6'4" players in their mid- and late-30s to sponge up starter minutes isn't what you'd call ideal. Temporarily? Sure, it's fine. Looking ahead to the playoffs? Eh.

Fortunately for the Sixers, they can deal up to four first-round picks and have Human Trade Exception K.J. Martin's deal as well as Jared McCain to peddle around the league. Most probably think their assets will be used to spruce things up on the margins. But don't be surprised if (and when) team president Daryl Morey decides they need to aim higher.

Phoenix Suns

The Overreaction: Bradley Beal isn't guaranteed a spot in the closing lineup.

Confidence Meter: 0.001

This is basically the Spongebob with a monocle iteration of "Bradley Beal should come off the bench!" Except, well, it's cooler and more thoughtful, because I used the word "monocle" to present it.

Beal remains one of the Phoenix Suns' most important players and didn't receive enough credit for some of the stuff he did and adjustments he made on the court last year—which is understandable, because the #vibes with this team were flat-out off, if not inarguably depressing. Regardless, he's not being paid $50-plus million per year to watch the highest-stakes moments from the bench.

And yet!

Tyus Jones' arrival could complicate late-game decisions. Perhaps he isn't guaranteed a closing spot, but would he accept the minimum without the chance to play those minutes? And unless the Suns' half-court organization improves dramatically year-over-year when he's not on the floor (possible!), many may be prepared to argue that Jones needs to be in most crunch-time arrangements.

Throw Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant into the mix, and you're suddenly at four slots—exactly none of which belong to an actual wing. To be fair, the Suns were short on those to begin with. To be even more fair, that doesn't change the actual point.

Josh Okogie, Royce O'Neale and, given how well he defended last year, Grayson Allen must all be considered for those higher-leverage moments. That could mean Phoenix leans into closing without a conventional big. Or it could mean Jones is a starter who doesn't close.

Or maybe, just maybe, the current roster construction culminates in Beal seeing his role vacillate in the 11th hour of close games.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Overreaction: The Portland Trail Blazers will have a better-than-league-average defense.

Confidence Meter: 3.6

I've made my infatuation with the Blazers' defensive potential pretty clear. This is still a gaga route to go for a team that will deploy oodles of youngsters and remains a prime fire-sale candidate.

The reaction stands anyway.

Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan, Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III arm the Blazers with more than a smattering of capable to disruptive to hellfire defenders. Deandre Ayton and Dalano Banton belong in this group depending on the game, too.

So much rests on the shoulders of RW3's health (and status within the organization) as well as Clingan's rookie performance. Portland finished 29th in opponent percentage allowed at the rim last year. Cleaning that up is the most effective way to establish a baseline above the league average, and these are the two most qualified to do it.

If you could guarantee to me that the crux of this roster remains relatively healthy and isn't dismantled ahead of the deadline, our trusty ol' confidence meter would skyrocket.

Sacramento Kings

The Overreaction: Keegan Murray finishes top-three in Most Improved Player.

Confidence Meter: 5.7

My confidence level for Murray headlining the MIP discourse would be much higher if not for hierarchical logistics. He will not enjoy the same offensive agency as other out-of-the-gate candidates like Cade Cunningham, Jalen Williams, Jonathan Kuminga, even Devin Vassell, among others.

That's not an indictment of Murray. There is definitely more depth to his on-ball game. But he now has four players—DeMar DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis—who supersede him in the pecking order.

Murray champions a plug-and-play style that ensures this shouldn't matter too much. He drilled 37.5 percent of his spot-up triples last year (40.6 percent post-All-Star break), finished inside the 74th percentile of efficiency in hand-off situations and knows how to catch-and-attack. His hustle in transition will serve him well, and he has the abrupt quickness and awareness to torch defenses off more cuts.

Statistically holding serve offensively may be enough to land him near the top of the field when factoring in his defense. Murray is wing-stopper material now—and even that might be selling him short. This dude defended everyone, particularly before Keon Ellis entered the regular rotation.

Between capably guarding one through 4, navigating screens and on-ball counters like a boss and covering up for more around the basket than you think, Murray has forced everyone, including the most devout optimists, to recalibrate his NBA ceiling.

San Antonio Spurs

The Overreaction: Victor Wembanyama averages 30 points per game.

Confidence Meter: 4.4

Speaking in hyperbole is impossible on matters concerning Wembanyama's trajectory. Forecasting 30 points per game comes pretty damn close.

Too many factors are at play. The biggest one? His minutes. The San Antonio Spurs rolled him out for under 30 per game as a rookie. That number needs to ratchet up by four or five for this to have a chance.

And hey, he might have a chance. His surprisingly efficient pull-up three can help expedite matters, but the addition of Chris Paul should give the Spurs 40 to 48 minutes of capable point guard play per game. Wemby benefits from that perhaps more than anyone else. He's already a terrifying play-finisher, and his job should now get easier.

That's terrifying all over again. Wemby averaged 37.2 points per 100 possessions alongside Tre Jones (compared to 30.4 without), according to PBP Stats. This dynamic is now standard functional fare.

If this isn't overreactionary enough for you, I get it. But averaging 30 points would mark an 8.4-per-game increase, and a sophomore hasn't cleared this plateau since Bob McAdoo did it in 1973-1974.

Toronto Raptors

The Overreaction: A blockbuster trade is coming.

Confidence Meter: 1.8

Talent retention doesn't typically beget this type of proclamation. But there is a duality, if unknowability, to the Toronto Raptors.

Are they trying to compete for playoff equity? It sure seems that way in many respects—mainly their prioritization of players rather than picks in the OG Anunoby trade. They also proceeded to puh-ay Immanuel Quickley (five years, $162.5 million guaranteed) and Scottie Barnes (five year, $224.2 million extension). The latter move was non-negotiable. The Quickley deal, and decision to take on RJ Barrett, infers a certain immediacy.

If that's the case, though, why not do a better job of addressing needs over the offseason? Toronto has punted on using the non-taxpayer mid-level (so far) at a time when it could have bagged someone useful. It also pulled an extension offer to Gary Trent Jr., paving the way for him to leave for nothing.

Picking up Bruce Brown's team option hints at a desire for maneuverability. His expiring salary can anchor an aggressive buy. Then again, the Raptors could also look to move off, well, anyone other than Barnes if they're not particularly competitive in the Eastern Conference.

Confused? That's the point. Toronto has positioned itself to be responsive. If they're better than expected, they'll lean into it with a splashy buy. If they're more of a rebuilding entity than plucky irritant, they'll jettison one of Quickley (after Dec. 14), Barrett and/or Jakob Poeltl.

Utah Jazz

The Overreaction: The Utah Jazz will try out over 40 different starting lineups.

Confidence Meter: 0.6

Renegotiating and extending Lauri Markkanen's contract could be a harbinger of the Jazz's commitment to jockeying for relevance now.

Or it could be their way of buying his contentment while they embark on a full- rather than half-season's worth of not-winning.

I'm choosing to believe it's the latter. Utah has talent (and assets), but no players (or inbound draft picks) that scream "Co-franchise cornerstone in waiting!." Its best chance of finding that someone is through the draft.

Optimizing that path requires selecting earlier than the back of the lottery. And that means the Jazz will need to get aggressively weird and proactive—not after the trade deadline, but earlier, like right away, if not definitely before the new year.

No, this current roster isn't headed to the playoffs. But Utah knows too well how extended stretches of overachievement can burn lottery odds. See: 2022-23. Also see: 2023-24.

Everything and anything should be on the table: early-season trades, pregame reports that list injuries to made-up body parts, lineup configurations you wouldn't even try in 2K, prominent roles for fliers and end-of-roster stabs-in-the-dark not yet on the payroll, fining players for performances not detrimental to the team, etc.

To be brutally honest, if the Jazz don't end the season starting players Markkanen didn't know existed at this very moment, something's gone wrong.

Washington Wizards

The Overreaction: The 2024-25 Washington Wizards will have the worst defensive rating in league history.

Confidence Meter: 4.63271

Is this an overreaction? Or just me playing into the Wizards' design?

It has to be the former. "Worst in league history" is an unfathomably low bar to set before watching the games. This speaks to my trust in Washington's quest to maximize its 2025 draft positioning.

Trading Deni Avdija for Bub Carrington, Malcolm Brogdon and a future pick is not a move that helps your stopping power. The drop-off will most likely get even worse once the front office reroutes Brogdon.

Investing in the development of Alex Sarr should extract a defensive toll as well. A handful of rookie bigs have delivered positive impacts in recent years, but the workload he'll have to ferry is overkill when looking at the rest of the roster.

Adding Jonas Valančiūnas keeps in theme with that motif. He will help end defensive possessions with his rebounding and can spare Sarr from the burlier assignments. But Washington's rim protection could be generationally bad when Valančiūnas and Marvin Bagley III are logging minutes as the lone bigs.

Bilal Coulibaly and Kyle Kuzma can both hold their own. Kyshawn George intrigues me, but could find himself at a quickness and explosion deficit versus too many opposing perimeter players to pencil him in as a rookie-year positive. Jordan Poole is still on this team.

The 2023-24 Utah Jazz currently own the worst defensive rating in NBA history. I have faith the Wizards, who posted the fourth-worst mark of all time last year, can outdo them.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.