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Best Free-Agent Walk Seasons in Recent MLB History

Tim Kelly

Both New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto and Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes are in the midst of excellent contract seasons that they hope will help to net them megadeals in free agency this offseason.

Of course, sometimes you can turn excellent production into a major contract, as Manny Machado did when he turned his 2018 contract year split with the Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers into a 10-year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres.

That same season, though, Bryce Harper didn't put together one of his finer campaigns in what turned out to be his final season with the Washington Nationals. Still, he landed a 13-year, $330 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

So while a big contract year can help you heading into free agency, it doesn't necessarily guarantee you get a huge contract.

To that end, here's a look at some of the best walk seasons over the past half-decade in baseball—seasons that led to a variety of different outcomes in free agency.

Gerrit Cole - 2019

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The lasting image of Gerrit Cole on the Astros may be him wearing a "Boras Corporation" hat after Houston lost Game 7 of the World Series, aware that he had just set up his agent to get him a record-setting deal.

Cole finished runner-up to teammate Justin Verlander in the 2019 AL Cy Young Award race, although you could definitely make a case he should have taken home the honor.

Not only did Cole win 20 games and log 212.1 innings in his second and final season with the Astros, but he also led the AL in ERA (2.50) and FIP (2.64) and all pitchers in strikeouts (326), ERA+ (185), strikeouts per nine (13.8) and WAR (7.5). After the 2019 All-Star break, Cole was virtually untouchable, going 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA over 14 starts.

A monster contract year earned Cole the right to shave off his beard after he signed a nine-year, $324 million deal to join the Yankees. The deal also includes a player opt-out after the 2024 season, which the Yankees can void if they tack on a 10th year to the contract that would pay Cole $36 million in 2029.

Shohei Ohtani - 2023

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The Los Angeles Angels may have squandered what turned out to be Shohei Ohtani's final season with the team, but the two-way superstar put up historic production prior to hitting the open market.

En route to winning his second AL MVP in three seasons, Ohtani shined both as a DH and starting pitcher:

Offensive Numbers: .304, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 91 BB, 1.066 OPS, 6.5 WAR

Pitching Numbers: 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 167 K, 132 IP, 2.3 WAR

Mind you, Ohtani put up these numbers despite undergoing season-ending elbow surgery on Sept. 20. There was still a little meat left on the bone had he remained healthy, particularly on the mound.

Nonetheless, Ohtani earned a 10-year, $700 million contract from the Dodgers, a pact that includes $680 million in deferrals set to be paid out between 2034 and 2043. Even without pitching in his first season with the Dodgers, Ohtani appears on track to win his third MVP.

Anthony Rendon - 2019

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There's something to be said for having such an excellent contract year that it gets teams—or at least one team—to overlook the fact that you made clear for much of your career that you don't love baseball and would be a risky player to make a long-term investment in.

Anthony Rendon did that for the Washington Nationals in 2019, as he hit .319 with a 1.010 OPS for the eventual World Champions. He led the NL with 44 doubles, and all of baseball with 126 RBI.

After driving in 15 runs during the postseason for the Nationals, Rendon landed a seven-year, $245 million contract with a full no-trade clause from the Angels in free agency. While he had a strong first campaign during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, injuries and a seeming indifference to playing the sport have plagued Rendon's time with the Halos.

Aaron Judge - 2022

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Aaron Judge may have had the greatest contract season in the history of professional sports in 2022. What makes it even more impressive is it came after Judge declined an eight-year, $230.5 million extension from the Yankees before the season.

Judge set a new AL single-season record with 62 homers in 2022, while also leading baseball with 131 RBI, a .425 on-base percentage, .686 slugging percentage, 1.111 OPS, 210 OPS+, 391 total bases and a staggering 11.1 WAR. He edged out the aforementioned Ohtani to take home AL MVP.

Though the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres seemingly made strong pushes to sign Judge, he decided to remain in the Bronx after testing free agency, eventually landing a nine-year, $360 million deal from the Yankees.

Two years later, Judge is putting up an eerily similar season to what he did in his walk year, which will almost certainly net him his second AL MVP. It's safe to say that the long-term deal has worked out well for all parties involved.

Justin Verlander - 2022

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All Justin Verlander did after missing the entire 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery was to win the AL Cy Young Award and help put the Astros on a parade float in 2022.

The future Hall of Famer led baseball in ERA (1.75), ERA+ (218) and WHIP (0.829) in 2022, and posted the top marks among AL pitchers in wins (18) and H/9 (6.0). As noted above, he and the Astros defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2022 World Series, earning their second title in a six-season span.

Verlander then became a free agent ahead of his age-40 season, ultimately signing a two-year, $86.6 million deal with the New York Mets. However, after making just 16 starts for the Mets, Verlander was traded back to the Astros, with the Mets still paying $35 million toward his salary between 2023 and 2024.

Stephen Strasburg - 2019

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Injuries prevented Stephen Strasburg from putting together a Hall of Fame career, but the former No. 1 overall pick had the finest campaign of his career for the Nationals in 2019, which essentially ended up being it for the righty.

Strasburg pitched a career-high 209 innings during the regular season in 2019, which led the NL. His 18 wins were also the top mark among Senior Circuit pitchers, with Strasburg posting a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.

In the postseason, Strasburg went 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA over 36.1 innings, helping the Nationals to defeat the Astros and win the World Series.

Strasburg then opted out of the four seasons and $100 million left on his prior contract, before the Nationals re-sign him to a new seven-year, $245 million deal, which included $80 million in deferrals from 2027-2029.

Unfortunately, the oft-injured righty made only eight starts after winning World Series MVP before injuries forced him to retire.

Edwin Díaz - 2022

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Everything came together for Edwin Díaz in 2022, as he was one of the stories of the sport during his contract season.

On the mound, Díaz turned in one of the most dominant seasons a reliever has ever had. He converted on 32 of 35 save attempts, with a 1.31 ERA, 0.90 FIP and 17.1 K/9.

What added to his value to the Mets was that his intro—"Narco" by Blasterjaxx and Timmy Trumpet—became appointment viewing in its own right. Timmy Trumpet even did a live performance of the song at Citi Field as Díaz trotted in for a save attempt against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 31, 2022.

Before Díaz could even hit the market after the 2022 season, owner Steve Cohen rewarded the closer with a five-year, $102 million contract.

Blake Snell - 2023

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Blake Snell's free agency didn't play out as expected after the 2023 season, but it's hard to say that the lefty didn't do everything in his power to set agent Scott Boras up for success on the open market.

Snell went 14-9 with MLB-best marks in terms of ERA (2.25), ERA+ (187) and H/9 (5.8) for the San Diego Padres in 2023, winning the NL Cy Young Award. Paired with the AL Cy Young Award Snell won as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018, Snell became the seventh pitcher in MLB history to win the honor in both leagues.

Still, Snell's resume was rather thin outside of his two Cy Young seasons, and he was never seen as a workhorse. That plus being saddled with a qualifying offer forced him to settle for a two-year, $62 million deal with the San Francisco Giants in free agency, despite having had an ideal walk season.

The good news for Snell is he has a player opt-out in that contract, and after what's been a dominant second half, he will likely exercise that this winter. With another strong campaign on his resume and no qualifying offer, Snell figures to do better in free agency the second time around.

Dansby Swanson - 2022

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Dansby Swanson helped the Atlanta Braves win a World Series in 2021. His final act with his hometown team was to put together a career-year that made him a very intriguing free agent.

The former No. 1 overall pick won his first career Gold Glove Award in 2022, finishing the season with 20 outs above average and nine defensive runs saved at shortstop.

He also made his first All-Star Game appearance with the help of his finest full campaign offensively, as he hit .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI and a 6.6 WAR.

Swanson landed a seven-year, $177 million deal from the Chicago Cubs in free agency. Since joining the Cubs, he has hit .237 with a .711 OPS and 7.7 WAR over nearly two seasons. While his glove has remained strong, it's pretty clear that Swanson's bat peaked at the right time for him to get paid.

Trea Turner - 2022

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With Corey Seager having departed to join the Texas Rangers in free agency, Trea Turner shifted back from second base to his natural position of shortstop in 2022. And he put together a tremendous contract year in what ended up being his only full season on the Dodgers.

Turner hit .298 with 21 home runs, 100 RBI, 27 stolen bases and an .809 OPS for the Dodgers in 2022. He played a passable shortstop, with minus-1 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average across more than 1,300 innings.

That was enough for the Phillies to give Turner an 11-year, $300 million contract with a full no-trade clause in free agency. Thus far as a Phillie, Turner has had peaks and valleys offensively. He's struggled mightily in the field with minus-24 defensive runs saved and minus-8 outs above average, so his long-term (and maybe short-term) future will likely come at second base.

Still, Turner departing worked out well for all parties involved. He got a lucrative deal from a team that allowed him to go back to the East Coast, where he wanted to be. The Dodgers saved that money and signed Ohtani—among others—a winter later.

   

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