On Tuesday morning, ESPN's Jeff Passan published an early MLB free-agency preview, in which he noted there is a "strong expectation" that New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will opt out of the four years remaining on his contract.

As we'll get to momentarily, that doesn't necessarily mean Cole will be a free agent this winter.

He could be available, though, and what a last-minute jolt that would be to what is already a loaded class of free agents, presently headlined by Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso.

How much would Cole—who turns 34 in about a week—be able to fetch on the open market?

And of the deep-pocketed teams that could sign him, who seems most motivated to get it done?

Let's take a look at the opt-out clause in Cole's contract before diving into the ranking of candidates to sign him.

Gerrit Cole's Opt-Out Clause and Market Value

As part of the nine-year, $324 million contract Cole signed with the Yankees in December 2019, he was given the option to decline the final four years and $144 million of the deal this offseason.

If he does so, it triggers a club option in which the Yankees can keep Cole by adding another $36 million year to his contract, which would push it to a 10-year, $360 million marriage.

Six months ago, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that's exactly how it would play out—he opts out, they opt in and the 2023 AL Cy Young winner stays in the Bronx through 2029.

But now if Cole tries to leave, would the Yankees re-up with the six-time All-Star who missed the first 75 games of this season before putting together what is presently the worst season of his 12-year career from a FIP (4.44) perspective?

Or would they thank him for his time and show him the door?

Coincidentally, Spotrac's Market Value for Cole (five years, $179M) is almost identical to the decision the Yankees would need to make.

However, that feels a little low, doesn't it?

Jacob deGrom was a few months older than Cole is when he signed his five-year, $185 million deal fresh off back-to-back injury-riddled seasons. And Zack Wheeler's three-year extension signed this past spring had an AAV of $42 million.

Is Cole really going to settle for $6 million total less than deGrom got, and $6 million annually less than Wheeler got?

It might be a moot point, because unless the Yankees are absolutely confident they can take the money presently ear-marked for Cole and use it to sign Juan Soto to a long-term deal, they're probably going to opt in if Cole opts out.

At any rate, a fanbase that is already disgruntled from 14 consecutive seasons without a World Series appearance would lose its freaking mind if they end up losing both Cole and Soto this winter—especially if Cole signs for, say, 5/$200M, meaning they could have kept him at a 10 percent discount.

For now, though, let's assume both parties opt out and try to figure out where Cole would land.

Cole Candidates Nos. 10-6

10. New York Yankees

2024 Payroll: $309M

Current 2025 Payroll (if Cole's $36M is removed): $166M

Technically, the Yankees could decline their five-year, $180M option with Cole before reaching a different agreement with him in free agency. With as much as this franchise is worth, New York could certainly find the money to make it happen, even if it does manage to re-sign Soto. It just feels highly unlikely that he would go crawling back to the team that turned him down when he could instead take that chip on his shoulder elsewhere.

9. Washington Nationals

2024 Payroll: $106M

Current 2025 Payroll: $54M

Almost all of that payroll is dead money. They still owe Patrick Corbin $10 million in deferred money in 2025, are paying Max Scherzer's deferred $15 million annually for three more years and need to pay Stephen Strasburg another $131 million over the next half-decade. However, the Nationals just might be in the market for a big-name pitcher this offseason, eager to make the most of a window in which CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., James Wood and Dylan Crews are all making way less money than what they are worth.

8. Baltimore Orioles

2024 Payroll: $108M

Current 2025 Payroll: $72M

Only once in franchise history have the Orioles signed/re-signed a player to a deal worth at least $86 million, and that $161 million Chris Davis contract ended up being an all-time disaster. But the Angelos family is no longer calling the penny-pinching shots here. David Rubenstein's ownership group took full control of the club in the past calendar year, and maybe signing Cole will be their first big splash. It would be similar to when Steve Cohen took over the Mets and wasted little time in trading for Francisco Lindor and shortly thereafter signing him to a $341 million contract.

7. San Francisco Giants

2024 Payroll: $202M

Current 2025 Payroll: $147M

After San Francisco came up short on each of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in recent winters, could this be when the Giants finally land a big fish on a long-term deal? If Blake Snell, Robbie Ray and Matt Chapman all opt out of their deals this offseason, they'll certainly have both the need for a starting pitcher and the money needed to land a big one. (That trio has a combined 2025 salary of $81.2 million.) A big three of Cole, Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison for the next four-plus seasons would be quite the foundation.

6. Chicago Cubs

2024 Payroll: $228M

Current 2025 Payroll: $155M

The Cubs have a big option of their own to worry about, with Cody Bellinger likely to opt in for at least one more year at $27.5 million. If that happens, they'll already be at nearly $140 million for 2025 just in their seven known contract figures. But they could swing big to get Cole and perhaps pay a little luxury-tax penalty in both 2025 and 2026 before the reckoning that is coming during the 2026-27 offseason, when all of Bellinger, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, Nico Hoerner and Mike Tauchman are scheduled to hit free agency.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

2024 Payroll: $218M

Current 2025 Payroll: $123M

2025 Starting Rotation Candidates: Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Jake Bloss, Ricky Tiedemann

Toronto might want to sign Gerrit Cole just so it doesn't have to deal with facing him anymore. In 17 starts against the Blue Jays over the past six years, Cole has a 2.54 ERA and a 0.865 WHIP.

Could the Blue Jays make it happen while still trying to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to long-term deals, though?

Short answer: Yes.

Bassitt has one $22 million season left on his deal. Gausman is owed $23 million for each of the next two seasons, with George Springer also owed $24.2 million in each of 2025 and 2026. And they owe Berríos either $36 million through 2026 or $84 million through 2028, depending on what he decides to do with the opt-out he has available during the 2026-27 offseason.

Aside from a comparatively small amount of money due to Yariel Rodríguez on his five-year, $32 million contract, though, that's it.

Toronto was arguably the No. 2 candidate to land Shohei Ohtani last winter, as well as perhaps the No. 2 candidate to trade for Juan Soto, but it ended up doing a whole lot of nothing and has yet to do any real spending beyond two years from now.

Maybe the Blue Jays slightly backload their desired long-term extensions with Guerrero and Bichette in such a way that it's a combined $35 million in 2025, $50 million in 2026 and $65 million for 2027 and beyond once the Bassitt, Gausman and Springer deals are off the books, but they could make a Cole-sized splash work for them.

And if they do, what a 2025 rotation this would be.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

2024 Payroll: $238M

Current 2025 Payroll: $172M

2025 Starting Rotation Candidates: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Bobby Miller

We are well aware that you're sick and tired of seeing the Dodgers mentioned as a top candidate to sign any and every big name free agent, and we'll stop putting them near the top of the list just as soon as it stops being true.

Would they really sign Gerrit Cole, though?

When they already have an excessive number of quality options for next year's rotation and when what they should be most worried about is what to do in LF with Teoscar Hernández hitting free agency?

To some extent, it depends on what happens this October.

Glasnow has a 5.72 ERA in his postseason career. Kershaw has had more than his share of postseason struggles over the years. Neither Ohtani nor Yamamoto has yet to pitch in October. And at this point, there are varying degrees of durability concerns with all four.

Cole, on the other hand, is a bona fide October ace with a 2.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 17 career postseason starts. And if the pitching lets them down again this fall, the Dodgers just might spare no expense in an effort to ensure that doesn't happen again in 2025.

At any rate, they structured Ohtani's contract the way they did so they would have the freedom to make these types of splashes.

If they do sign Cole, there's a painful pinch point looming in 2027, when they're already on the hook for nearly $120 million just between Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Glasnow and Yamamoto.

That's tomorrow's problem, though, and they are hell-bent on winning at least one more World Series before Freeman leaves/retires.

3. Houston Astros

2024 Payroll: $255M

Current 2025 Payroll: $146M

2025 Starting Rotation Candidates: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, Ronel Blanco, Lance McCullers Jr. (?)

Who's up for a reunion?

Gerrit Cole had a phenomenal two-year run with the Astros in 2018-19. He made 65 regular-season starts with a 2.68 ERA, plus seven postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA. It's only because teammate Justin Verlander won 21 games in 2019 that Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA, 326 K) didn't win the Triple Crown that year.

Simply put, his dominance with Houston is why he got such a massive contract from the Yankees.

And the Astros are about to have a few openings in their rotation, with Verlander headed to free agency / retirement and Yusei Kikuchi (for now, at least) on a two-month rental deal.

It also bears mentioning that Valdez has just one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he reaches free agency, and that Blanco hasn't been anywhere near as impressive over the past two months as he was through the first three. That means they'll be looking for more than just a band-aid solution.

The real X-factor here, though, is Alex Bregman.

If they re-sign their third baseman with a projected market value of four years, $120 million, finding room in the budget for Cole becomes a lot tougher. They're already paying Jose Altuve $125 million over the next five years, and will be making eight-figure payments to each of Josh Hader, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier and McCullers in each of the next three seasons.

But if they're content to let Bregman go and roll with Zach Dezenzo at the hot corner—like they did with Jeremy Peña replacing Carlos Correa three years ago—they'll almost certainly use those "savings" to go get one of the top starting pitchers on the market.

2. Boston Red Sox

2024 Payroll: $188M

Current 2025 Payroll: $108M

2025 Starting Rotation Candidates: Lucas Giolito, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell

We spent the entire past winter waiting for the Red Sox to do something to improve their pitching staff, but it never happened.

They did sign Lucas Giolito, only to very shortly thereafter trade Chris Sale. (Imagine how much different things would be for both Boston and Atlanta right now if that pair of moves never happens.)

And after what is likely going to be a third consecutive year both missing the postseason and allowing the most runs among AL East teams, it's beyond time to do something about this pitching staff.

It doesn't have to be Cole.

In fact, his career numbers at Fenway Park (5.52 ERA with 12 home runs allowed in eight starts) suggest it probably shouldn't be Cole.

But it'd be more fun if it is Cole, right?

It has been more than a decade since these loathed rivals took a free agent from each other. Signing Jacoby Ellsbury in December 2013 ended up being a terrible decision for the Yankees, but that's the most recent one in either direction. The last time the Red Sox signed someone from the Yankees was back-up catcher John Flaherty in January 2006—who retired two months later.

Having one of the best pitchers in baseball go straight from five years with the Yankees to five years with the Red Sox would be fun theater, but that's hardly the reason Boston lands near the top of this list. The Red Sox need an ace-level pitcher, and there's no question they have the room in the budget to make it happen.

1. New York Mets

2024 Payroll: $316M

Current 2025 Payroll: $142M

2025 Starting Rotation Candidates: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, Sean Manaea (player option), Christian Scott, José Buttó, Brandon Sproat

Even if he doesn't stay with the Yankees, there's a good chance that Cole will remain in New York.

Both Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are headed for free agency, and it's very likely that Manaea—rather than staying with the Mets for $13.5 million in 2025—will join them on the open market after what has been maybe the best season of his career.

If Manaea does leave, the Mets basically need to replace their entire rotation. Those three have each eclipsed 140 innings pitched this season, while the only other Mets north of 50 are Adrian Houser (already gone), Buttó (primarily a reliever) and Peterson, who has pitched quite well after missing the first two months of the season.

They should have Senga (calf) back at hopefully full strength, and they will have one more year of Blackburn after acquiring him at the deadline. However, the current projection is hardly a rotation befitting of a team that is willing to spend like there's no tomorrow.

Now, if they win the Juan Soto sweepstakes, it's hard to imagine they would also be able to land Cole. If we put them both at an estimated 2025 salary of $40 million—maybe a bit high for Cole; maybe a bit low for Soto—the Mets would be at $200.5 million just for the octet of Cole, Soto, Senga, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Edwin Díaz.

There's also the Pete Alonso factor. If they re-sign their impending free agent slugger in lieu of getting Soto, that's probably a $30 million salary as opposed to a $40 million salary, but they'd be in a similar situation.

If anyone would be willing to do it, though, it's Steve Cohen, who ended up spending close to half a billion dollars last season after factoring in the luxury tax penalties.