Garrett Greene Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

5 Teams Outside the Top 25 Capable of Making a CFB Playoff Run

David Kenyon

While opening the season with a Top 25 ranking is a welcomed honor, what matters most is where a team finishes.

Looking at the initial AP poll, a handful of intriguing programs didn't make the formal cut. Instead, they're all listed in the "others receiving votes" section of the preseason ranking.

But when December rolls around, a couple of those schools may provide a twist in the newly expanded College Football Playoff.

Each choice is subjective, though one particular trend—returning production—is clearly seen in the picks.

Boise State Broncos

Ahmed Hassanein Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The reigning Mountain West champions, Boise State enters the campaign as the most respected Group of Five team. No other non-power program landed more votes in the preseason AP Top 25.

In short: This is an unsurprising pick, yes.

Because of expansion, though, at least one G5 winner is guaranteed a trip to the CFP. More teams technically could make it, but the full expectation is the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will command four slots.

Anyway, back to Boise State. The defense is loaded with experience, highlighted by first-team All-MWC pass-rusher Ahmed Hassanein and second-team linebacker Andrew Simpson. Both of them generated 16-plus tackles for loss in 2023. The secondary is almost entirely intact, too.

All-American running back Ashton Jeanty is the backbone of the offense, which is turning to Maddux Madsen—not USC transfer Malachi Nelson—at quarterback. Four starters return on the offensive line.

Madsen's development and a talented yet unproven receiving corps are Boise's main question marks. But the upside is evident.

Iowa State Cyclones

Rocco Becht and Abu Sama III Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Since the four highest-ranked conference champions will receive a first-round bye, a league title is an especially valuable prize.

By no means is the Big 12—or ACC, but more there in a minute—a down conference. Led by Utah at 12th, five programs landed a spot in the initial AP Top 25. The league simply does not have an elite-level contender, whereas the Big Ten and SEC flooded the preseason Top 10.

So, again, that bye could be massive for a program like Iowa State.

No roster has a greater percentage of returning production, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.

Along with Rocco Becht at QB, the Cyclones bring back their top runner, three best pass-catchers and the entire offensive line plus two notable transfers up front. The defense basically lost three contributors—with a fourth, linebacker Carson Willich, missing 2024 due to a knee injury.

The trick for ISU may be navigating a November slate that includes Kansas (road), Utah (road) and Kansas State. Do that and win the Big 12, however, and the Cyclones would deserve plenty of respect in the Playoff.

Memphis Tigers

Seth Henigan Scott Kane/Getty Images

Similar to Boise State, Memphis' most likely path to the CFP is through the G5's automatic bid.

One helpful trend is that the American—the AAC—regularly sent its champion to a New Year's Six bowl. In the 10 years of the CFP era, the AAC accounted for seven of those NY6 representatives.

Additionally, the schedule works out nicely for Memphis.

If the Tigers can beat Troy and/or Florida State in nonconference play, that would be a quality win or two. While the AAC slate isn't extremely difficult, Memphis travels to top challengers South Florida, UTSA and Tulane. That's not a great outlook, but the balance is that the Tigers have an extra week to prepare for USF and Tulane.

Unless a G5 school ends undefeated—as Liberty was in 2023—Memphis would still have a strong CFP case at 11-2 because of its schedule.

Virginia Tech Hokies

Kyron Drones M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The discussion about Iowa State has a similar ring at Virginia Tech, which is a not-so-quiet contender in the ACC.

Preseason expectations have already been shattered with Florida State's immediate loss to Georgia Tech. Clemson is no sure thing, and Miami has much to prove in 2024. This could be a wide-open conference, and the Hokies may be built to take advantage of the window.

Virginia Tech is also stacked with experience, bringing back the fourth-most production in the country, per Connelly.

The schedule, like for Memphis, is a positive here, too.

Heading to Miami will be tricky, and hosting Clemson is the marquee game on the slate. The regular season does not include FSU, North Carolina State, Louisville or even SMU and North Carolina, though.

Combine those key factors, and the Hokies have a very reasonable path to contending for an ACC crown and earning a CFP bye.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Kole Taylor Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

No team listed has a better Week 1 opportunity to make a national statement than West Virginia.

First up, the Mountaineers host Penn State. The eighth-ranked visitors laid a smackdown on WVU last season, but a much closer matchup is a logical expectation in 2024. Spring that upset, and the 'Eers wouldn't be sneaking into the national conversation with a strong Big 12 finish.

This schedule, I will concede, isn't so friendly. The conference had five programs ranked in the preseason, and four of them—Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Arizona—loom on WVU's docket.

Nevertheless, the potential of this Garrett Greene-led offense is stellar. He began to overshadow the team's defensive issues in 2023.

Whether the Mountaineers can handle a fair bit of transition defensively will shape their true upside, but WVU's on-paper outlook to start the season is compelling.

   

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