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2024 College Football Week 1 Upsets that Could Actually Happen

Morgan Moriarty

If Week Zero taught us anything, it's that upsets are a very real threat for any team in college football. No. 10 Florida State fell 24-21 to Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, getting the season off to a surprising start.

As Week 1 officially gets kicked off later this week, let's take a look at upsets that have a real chance of happening. Some of these games include non-conference matchups, non-power conferences facing off against power conference teams, as well as FCS vs. FBS showdowns.

A few teams in danger of getting upset in Week 1 include No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Penn State, No. 13 LSU and No. 19 Miami. Without further ado, let's breakdown Week 1 upsets that have a real chance of happening.

Under-the Radar Games to Keep an Eye on

Head coach Mack Brown of the North Carolina Tar Heels Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

Syracuse vs. Ohio, Saturday at 3:30 p.m.

The Orange have Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord under center this fall, with first-year head coach Fran Brown making his debut at Syracuse. Ohio head coach Tim Albin, meanwhile, has led the Bobcats to back-to-back 10-win seasons.

Florida Atlantic (+11.5) at Michigan State, Friday at 7 p.m.

Jonathan Smith is now coaching at his alma mater in East Lansing, and he'll have a bit of an uphill battle to start. Sparty finished 4-8 last season, and lost 38 players to the transfer portal. MSU ranks 72nd in returning production, too. FAU head coach Tom Herman would love to make a statement in his second season as the Owls head coach with an upset over MSU in Week 1.

North Carolina (-1) at Minnesota, Thursday at 8 p.m.

This is a pretty important season for Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown. His tenure dating back to 2019 has been a bit of a mixed bag, with a 38-27 record, including four straight bowl losses in three years. UNC made it to the ACC title game in 2022. The Tar Heels were 1-3 on the road last season, and Minnesota is 5-2 in home openers under P.J. Fleck.

Hawaii (+13.5) at UCLA, Saturday at 7:30

Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang has yet to notch a winning season with the Rainbow Warriors. But his team got off to a great start in Week Zero, beating Delaware State 35-14. New UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster would be wise not to sleep on this Hawaii team in the opener.

North Dakota State (+9.5) over Colorado, Thursday at 8 pm.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Primetime Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes are back in 2024. Sanders' team that got off to a hot 3-0 start last year then stumbled to lose eight of its last nine games is looking to rebound in 2024.

The Buffaloes open 2024 at home and get an interesting matchup in North Dakota State, which has been an FCS powerhouse for most of the last decade. The Bison have won nine FCS national titles dating back to 2011, and have a 23-7 record over the last two seasons. New NDSU head coach Tim Polasek would love to start his tenure with a road upset over the Buffs.

As for Colorado, Sanders did a solid job addressing the glaring issues they had in the trenches last year. Colorado landed transfer portal products like defensive linemen Samuel Okunlola and Quency Wiggins. Offensive line additions like Tyler Johnson and Justin Mayers and 5-star recruit Jordan Seaton should help returning quarterback Shedeur Sanders avoid sacks.

Also returning for Colorado offensively is star receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. Hunter finished with 721 yards receiving and five touchdowns, averaging 12.6 yards per catch. Sanders will have new weapons like transfer receivers Will Sheppard and LaJohntay Wester, and tight end Chamon Metayer.

This should be an interesting quarterback battle in Boulder, too. NDSU signal-caller Cam Miller is coming off of one of his most productive seasons yet, finishing 2023 with 2,688 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. He rushed for 629 yards and 13 scores, too.

Sure, an FCS power like NDSU upsetting a team coming off of a losing season doesn't sound too terrible. But it would create even more pressure for Sanders to win in a critical 2024 season for him.

South Dakota State (+10) over Oklahoma State, 2 p.m. on Saturday

Ollie Gordon #0 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images

Speaking of FCS powerhouses, South Dakota State will take on Oklahoma State riding a ton of momentum. The Jackrabbits will open the season in Stillwater riding a 29-game win streak, and boasting back-to-back FCS national championships.

Oklahoma State will be looking to get back to the Big 12 title game once again, finishing 10-4 last season. The Cowboys return a good chunk of that team from last year, ranking third nationally in SP+ returning production rankings. Oklahoma State gets back 90 percent of its starters from last year on offense, good for first nationally, as well as 80 percent of its production on defense.

The Cowboys offense will once again be led by quarterback Alan Bowman and running back Ollie Gordon II, who led the nation in rushing yards last season with 1,732 and 21 touchdowns. Leading receivers Brennan Pressley and Rashod Owens also return on offense. 10 starters return on defense for the Cowboys.

South Dakota State has to replace a good amount of players that helped lead its dominant run over the last few seasons. But the Jackrabbits have pulled off upsets over FBS teams before—most recently knocking off Colorado State in 2021, and beating Kansas in 2015. Oklahoma's talent-level and playing this one at home should give the Cowboys the edge here. But a Jackrabbits team eager to prove they can still hang with FBS programs would love to pull off an upset here.

West Virginia (+8.5) over Penn State, Noon on Saturday

Garrett Greene #6 of West Virginia David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It's a bit surprising that Las Vegas has Penn State as such a heavy favorite going on the road Week 1. Yes, the Nittany Lions have a playoff-caliber team in 2024, returning 67 percent of their returning production from its 10-win team in 2023. But this game against West Virginia should be a great one.

The Mountaineers finished 9-4 last season, and get plenty of starters back on offense from last season. Starting quarterback Garrett Greene, running back Jaheim White and receiver Hudson Clement all return for WVU, as the offense ranks 12th in returning production. It'll be a good test for Penn State's defense. The unit, which finished 2023 ranked second nationally in total defense, returns defensive end Abdul Carter, but will be without Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson.

Offensively, this should be a good test for second-year starting quarterback Drew Allar. The signal-caller finished fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards (2,631), threw for the second-most touchdowns with 25, and had just two interceptions.

But Allar finished with some of his lowest completion-percentage games on the road last season, like at Illinois (48.5), Northwestern (54.5) and at Ohio State (42.9). He should be much more comfortable leading this Penn State offense, which boasts returning running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If Penn State wants to get a road win, Allar playing well will be crucial.

West Virginia lost just one game at home last season, vs. Oklahoma State in late October. We'll see if the Mountaineers can continue their trend of playing well at home on Saturday.

Florida (+2.5) over Miami, 3:30 p.m. on Saturday

Graham Mertz #15 of the Florida Gators Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

These two Florida schools which were once national college football powerhouses don't play each other often. But the last two times these teams met in 2019 and 2013, the games were decided by less than seven points.

It feels like Saturday's matchup will be just as close. Florida has struggled in Billy Napier's first two seasons in Gainesville, finishing below-.500. As the third-year head coach enters 2024 squarely on the hot seat, beating a Top-25 in-state foe would be a great start to the season. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal is also in need of a breakout season, going 12-13 over the last two years.

Both coaches hope that some much-needed additions from the transfer portal will translate to on-field success this season. For Miami, the biggest name the Hurricanes added this offseason is quarterback Cam Ward. The signal-caller spent the last two seasons at Washington State. Throwing for 6,968 yards with 48 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Ward briefly declared for the 2024 NFL Draft before ultimately ending up at Miami.

Ward will be playing behind an offensive line that allowed just 16 sacks last season, the second-fewest in the ACC. He'll also have plenty of weapons around him, as Miami gets back leading receiver Xavier Restrepo, and added receiver Sam Brown and running back Damien Martinez from the portal.

Florida returns quarterback Graham Mertz from last season, who led the SEC in completion percentage last season (72.9 percent). The Gators return leading running back Montrell Johnson Jr., and added receiver Elijhah Badger from the transfer portal.

With both offenses bringing in some serious firepower, this game could turn into a shootout. Florida may have the edge with the home crowd backing the defense, but Miami has more experience, returning 59 percent of its returning production from last season.

If Florida can pull off a Sunshine State upset, the Gators could crack the Top 25.

Texas A&M (-2.5) over Notre Dame, 7:30 pm on Saturday

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Yes, I know that Las Vegas doesn't really consider this an upset. But a top-10 playoff contender in Notre Dame losing on the road Week 1 to a non-conference opponent would be pretty significant.

Texas A&M will look to start the 2024 season on a high note under first-year head coach Mike Elko. The former Texas A&M defensive coordinator from 2018-21 is hoping to have a big season like he did his first season at Duke. In 2022, Elko led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record, the first nine-win season in Durham since 2014.

The Aggies have a talented quarterback in Conner Weigman under center. The former 5-star quarterback prospect has thrown for 1,875 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in nine games over the last two seasons. Last season he was named TAMU's starter, but suffered a season-ending foot injury in late September. He is expected to have his best season yet in 2024 under new Aggie offensive coordinator Collin Klein.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, enters 2024 as a legitimate playoff team. Although the Irish have to replace plenty of talent from last year's 10-3 team, they should have an experienced defense. The unit will be led by returning starters cornerback Benjamin Morrison, linebacker Jack Kiser and defensive tackle Howard Cross III.

This game will feature an interesting quarterback storyline in ND signal-caller Riley Leonard. Leonard transferred to South Bend after spending the last three seasons at Duke, playing for Elko the last two years. He missed several games last season while dealing with injuries. But he had the best season of his career in 2022, throwing for 2,967 yards with 20 interceptions and six interceptions, adding 699 yards with 13 scores on the ground.

A road loss won't knock ND out of the playoff hunt entirely. But it means it can't afford to have too many more losses down the road.

USC (+4.5) over LSU, Sunday at 7:30

LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier Sarah Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

USC and LSU enter the 2024 season with some very similar circumstances. Both of these teams enter with third-year head coaches looking to make a big jump. Neither Lincoln Riley nor Brian Kelly have produced a playoff team yet. Starting the season off with a win in Las Vegas just might help them get one step closer to doing that.

Ironically, both LSU and USC also have new starting quarterbacks in 2024. Trojans starter Miller Moss threw for 372 yards with six touchdowns and an interception in his first start in the Holiday Bowl vs. Louisville last season. LSU starter Garrett Nussmeier also had an impressive bowl game debut in 2023, notching 395 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in a ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin. Whichever signal-caller has the better night could be a key to victory. Quarterbacks aside, both offensive units are pretty inexperienced—LSU returns 58 percent of its returning production on offense, USC 53 percent.

Think we're done talking about how alike these teams are? Nope! Both teams are also looking to drastically improve on defense, too. USC finished 119th in total defense, giving up over 432.8 yards per game. LSU wasn't much better, finishing 108th (416.6 ypg).

Riley hired D'Anton Lynn as his new defensive coordinator, who helped UCLA finish with a Top-15 defense last season. LSU hired Blake Baker from Missouri—Mizzou gave up 20.8 points per game last season, tied for 25th nationally.

If USC gets a win over LSU, it could vault the Trojans into the playoff mix. The Trojans also have to face Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame the rest of the season. For LSU, a loss might prove costly for its playoff hopes—the Tigers also play Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma this season.

   

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