On the one hand, five weeks is a lot of time for things to change in the Major League Baseball standings. Earlier this season, the Houston Astros turned a 10-game deficit into a one-game lead in the AL West in even less time than that. And goodness knows there have been some September collapses in baseball history.

On the other hand, recent history says not to expect much to change down the stretch.

Excluding 2020, we've now had 11 years of postseason baseball with multiple wild-card teams per league, for a combined total of 114 playoff teams. All but 12 of those teams were already in the "if the season ended today" postseason field at the end of play on August 31, and only two of those 12 exceptions were more than three games out of the playoff picture with a month to go—Cleveland went 21-6 down the stretch in 2013 to make up a 4.5-game deficit, and Milwaukee went 20-7 over the final month of the 2019 campaign to storm back from four games behind.

Long story short: If a team is at least five games out of it at this point, it's probably time to start thinking about next season.

Let's go division by division with our updated predictions of who will make the postseason, culminating in a rapid-fire prediction of how things would play out if we're right with all this seeding prognosticating.

American League East

Current Standings: NYY 77-54, BAL 76-56 (1.5 GB), BOS 67-62 (9 GB), TBR 65-65 (11.5 GB), TOR 63-68 (14 GB)

Projected Winner: New York Yankees

Projected Wild Card Teams: Baltimore Orioles

Just like last season, the Orioles have been in quite the months-long, two-team grind for the AL East title and the likely AL No. 1 seed that comes with it. Only instead of being perpetually neck-and-neck with the Rays from early July through the end of the regular season like they were in 2023, they've spent just about this entire season within three games of the Yankees.

It sure is starting to feel like the Yankees are going to win that race, though, if only because Baltimore lately can't seem to make it 24 hours without suffering yet another injury.

The recent injuries to Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle appear to be minor compared to the many Tommy John surgeries that pitching staff has endured, but they just cannot catch a break.

Meanwhile for the Yankees, Gerrit Cole (back-to-back outings with six scoreless innings) is heating up and their big trade-deadline acquisition, Jazz Chisholm Jr., is back from the IL and ready to provide some lineup support to Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Boston is still hanging around in the wild-card picture but has lost ground on the Royals and Twins thanks to atrocious pitching that has allowed nearly six runs per game in August. They're at least still scoring in bunches, though, but will need to take care of business in their 20 remaining games against the Blue Jays (eight), Rays (six), White Sox (three) and Tigers (three) in order to close what is presently a 4.5-game gap behind Minnesota and Kansas City.

American League Central

Current Standings: CLE 75-55, KCR 72-58 (3 GB), MIN 72-58 (3 GB), DET 65-66 (10.5 GB), CHW 31-100 (44.5 GB)

Projected Winner: Cleveland Guardians

Projected Wild Card Teams: Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

Can the Guardians right the ship before it's too late?

They've been in sole possession of first place in the AL Central every day since April 14, pushing that lead out to as many as nine games in late June. But that was back when this offense was actually good, averaging 5.2 runs per game from June 4-25 as opposed to just 3.5 runs on average during what was a brutal stretch from August 3-23.

During that time, they barely hit .200 as a team, with trade-deadline acquisition Lane Thomas unable to hit the broad side of a barn while both Steven Kwan (.183 AVG) and David Fry (.156 AVG) have come back to earth in a big, painful way.

If they continue to struggle, it's not just the AL Central that's in jeopardy here, as Cleveland isn't that far (7.5 games) ahead of Boston in what plausibly could become a race for the No. 6 seed if the Guardians bottom out.

Conversely, no time like the present for the Royals to take the reins here, with seven games against the Guardians in the next 10 days.

The Fightin' Bobby Witt Jr.'s do also have to deal with the Astros, Yankees and Twins during what is an arduous three-week stretch, but they have refused to go away no matter how many times it has looked like they might be about to collapse. If they take at least four of those seven from Cleveland, the Royals could win a division for what would be just the second time since 1985.

The Twins are still very much in the mix, as well, and with what is marginally the most favorable remaining schedule of the bunch. They're also by far the most banged up of the bunch, though, so winning a race where they are already a few steps behind might be asking too much. They should be able to fend off the Red Sox for a wild-card spot, though, so long as they don't get swept in Boston over the next-to-last weekend of the regular season.

American League West

Current Standings: HOU 70-60, SEA 66-65 (4.5 GB), TEX 60-71 (10.5 GB), OAK 56-75 (14.5 GB), LAA 54-77 (16.5 GB)

Projected Winner: Houston Astros

Projected Wild Card Teams: N/A

In late July, it looked like the race for the AL West could be headed for a three-way photo finish on par with last season's incredible theater.

At the end of play on July 25, the Mariners were just one game behind the Astros, with Texas 1.5 games behind Seattle.

At the end of play on Aug. 25, however, it is a much different story.

Jacob deGrom is finally on a rehab assignment for the Rangers, but the reigning champs are as good as dead. They could match the 21-6 finish Cleveland had in 2013 and it most likely still wouldn't be good enough to get into the playoffs, given how far they have fallen out of contention.

Meanwhile, Seattle plummeted from 44-31 in its first 75 games to 21-34 in its next 55, firing manager Scott Servais on Thursday in hopes of sparking anything in what has been a lifeless offense for more than a month.

While those teams fell apart, Houston just kept doing its thing, putting together an eight-game winning streak (all on the road) against Texas, Boston and Tampa Bay to just about bury the Mariners in the span of a little more than a week.

The M's and 'Stros do have one head-to-head series remaining from Sept. 23-25—after which the Mariners finish the season at home against Oakland while Houston has to deal with a three-game series in Cleveland. That could be the recipe for Seattle to make a wild comeback from a five-game deficit over the final week of the regular season.

Then again, if you think the Mariners are still going to be within five games a month from now, you probably haven't watched them try to hit in a while.

National League East

Current Standings: PHI 76-54, ATL 70-60 (6 GB), NYM 68-63 (8.5 GB), WAS 59-72 (17.5 GB), MIA 47-83 (29 GB)

Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Wild Card Teams: Atlanta Braves

Could the Phillies actually blow this division after leading by five-to-10 games on a daily basis for more than three months?

We'll have a much better idea one week from now after they host Atlanta for a four-game set over Labor Day weekend, but, yeah, it's plausible.

The Braves haven't even been playing well over the past month-and-a-half, but the Phillies entered Saturday with a 13-22 record dating back to July 12, which would have been the worst mark in the majors if the White Sox didn't exist. Zack Wheeler is just about the only Phillies pitcher who hasn't been struggling, and soon-to-be 30-year-old rookie Weston Wilson is on the short list of hitters who are actually producing as of late.

That has allowed Atlanta to inch its way back into this race, simply by playing .500 baseball. And with Reynaldo López back from his forearm tightness, perhaps they can get back to playing winning baseball down the stretch to make this a real race.

The Mets aren't entirely out of the conversation, either, by virtue of their seven games remaining against the Phillies in mid-September.

Not only that, but in the three days in between those two series, the Mets host the Nationals while the Phillies have to play at Milwaukee. Could be a massive 10-day shift in the standings if the Mets temporarily forget they are the Mets and end the season on a hot streak.

Given we neither have them projected to win the division nor secure a wild-card spot, we're not particularly optimistic they'll be able to pull it off. But maybe Francisco Lindor can still make a run at Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP if New York does finish with a flourish.

National League Central

Current Standings: MIL 75-55, STL 65-65 (10 GB), CHC 65-66 (10.5 GB), CIN 63-68 (12.5 GB), PIT 62-68 (13 GB)

Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Wild Card Teams: N/A

Each of the other five divisions has at least some intrigue for the home stretch.

In the NL Central, though, it's really just a question of A) whether Milwaukee can secure a first-round bye and B) the order of the final standings for the four teams who aren't going to make the playoffs.

That is, unless you believe the Cubs can continue to make the most of what is a very favorable stretch in their schedule.

The baby bears have already won consecutive series against Toronto, Detroit and Miami in climbing back to the brink of .500 and to within a half-dozen games of the NL's last wild-card spot. And that's only the beginning, as six of their next eight series are against Pittsburgh (two series), Washington (two series), Oakland and Colorado, none of which is playing for anything other than draft position at this point.

Finishing strong enough to track down the Brewers is effectively impossible. Milwaukee's recent sweeps of Atlanta and Cleveland extinguished any hope of this division race coming down to the wire, while also opening the door to the possibility of the three-game series at home against Philadelphia from Sept. 16-18 determining which team gets to avoid playing in the wild-card round.

There is an outside chance, however, that Chicago could surge right past both the Mets and the Braves to secure the postseason spot that it blew last September, as well as in September 2019.

National League West

Current Standings: LAD 78-53, ARI 75-56 (3 GB), SDP 74-58 (4.5 GB), SFG 66-66 (12.5 GB), COL 48-83 (30 GB)

Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Wild Card Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres

This division race got interesting for a hot minute and it's certainly not finished yet, but it feels like only a matter of time before the Dodgers secure home-field advantage at least through the NLCS, if not the entire postseason.

That's because, slowly but surely, they are approaching full strength. Save for backup catcher Austin Barnes, the lineup is already there with Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Tommy Edman all coming off the IL in the past two weeks. Couple that with Gavin Lux coming around in a massive way after a rough first half and beyond difficult to find a weakness in this lineup. And while they are currently sans Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the starting rotation, the expectation remains that both will be back before the playoffs begin.

Maybe the Diamondbacks or Padres can steal this division, though, as they have both been hotter than the sun since the All-Star break.

With Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez both back and Jordan Montgomery headed for bullpen duty, Arizona's rotation is finally coming together quite nicely in support of the most potent offense in baseball.

And if Yu Darvish (reinstated Saturday) makes a return to the Padres rotation even remotely as glorious as Joe Musgrove's has been (one run allowed in 15.2 IP), it's not out of the question that they could end up with the best record in baseball—especially if Fernando Tatis Jr. returns sooner rather than later.

These are arguably the three best teams in baseball, and it's a shame we appear to be headed for a postseason bracket in which one and only one would survive the NLDS. (Right now, it would be Arizona hosting San Diego in the wild-card round for the right to face Los Angeles in a best-of-five series.)

Don't forget about the Giants, either. Their remaining schedule is much, much tougher than what the Cubs are hoping to ride to an epic comeback, but their pitching is good enough to make things interesting for that last wild-card spot.

Projecting the Postseason

Wild Card Round

AL No. 3 Houston Astros over AL No. 6 Minnesota Twins
AL No. 4 Baltimore Orioles over AL No. 5 Kansas City Royals

NL No. 6 Atlanta Braves over NL No. 3 Philadelphia Phillies
NL No. 4 Arizona Diamondbacks over NL No. 5 San Diego Padres

Division Round

AL No. 1 New York Yankees over AL No. 4 Baltimore Orioles
AL No. 3 Houston Astros over AL No. 2 Cleveland Guardians

NL No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over NL No. 4 Arizona Diamondbacks
NL No. 6 Atlanta Braves over NL No. 2 Milwaukee Brewers

League Championship Series

ALCS: Astros over Yankees

NLCS: Dodgers over Braves

World Series: Dodgers over Astros

How about a little rematch seven years in the making?

Goodness knows Dodgers fans would have fun with trash can props if this World Series pairing came to fruition.

These feel like the two most dangerous teams right now, and with more reinforcements on the way for both. Kyle Tucker could return for Houston in early September, at which point the top six in that lineup becomes an absolute gauntlet for opposing pitchers. And with Justin Verlander back in the mix, he, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi/Spencer Arrighetti could be one heck of a postseason rotation.

The Dodgers are deadlier, though, provided Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto do make it back. Max Muncy typically batting seventh since his return to the active roster is quite the testament to how top-to-bottom stout this lineup is right now. And with Michael Kopech becoming a force of nature since arriving from the White Sox, the bullpen is positively stacked, too.

But, you know, ask us again in a month and the picks are liable to change quite a bit.