Over the years, we've learned that the best players in the NBA aren't necessarily the ones who score the most points.

In 2023-24, Brooklyn Nets gunner Cam Thomas put up a higher scoring average than Victor Wembanyama and Jimmy Butler. Nobody outside of a well-insulated, Nets-centric silo would argue Thomas impacted winning more than either of those two.

At the same time, we need to make sure we're not getting so caught up in all the advanced metrics and on-off data that we forget the game is still about putting the ball in the basket.

Here, we'll highlight every NBA team's projected scorer-in-chief. Because remember: You can't win if you don't get buckets.

Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young

Dejounte Murray came surprisingly close to dethroning Trae Young last season, averaging a career-high 22.5 points per game as Young throttled back by just a hair, dropping his own scoring average to a three-year-low 25.7.

It wasn't enough to prevent Young from leading the Hawks in scoring for a fifth straight season.

With Murray gone, Young's only competition will come from rising star Jalen Johnson, who added over 10.0 points to his average last season, jumping from 5.6 to 16.0. Though the fourth-year forward's career-trajectory arrow is angling sharply upward after 2023-24's breakthrough effort, Johnson still has a long way to go before he threatens Young's scoring rate.

Defenses will once again key all of their backcourt defensive attention on Young, but he's used to that. He was a nightly focal point of every opponent when he led the NBA in total points back in 2021-22. Assuming he stays healthy, Young has a real shot to repeat that feat next year.

Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum gave Jaylen Brown a shot to catch him last season, dropping his scoring average from the career-high 30.1 points he averaged in 2022-23 to just 26.9. But the talent infusion that helped produce the franchise's 18th championship also reduced Brown's scoring from 26.6 to 23.0 points per game.

The Celtics—Brown, Tatum and all the rest—should have no problem with the individual stat suppression that often accompanies depth like theirs. Last year was proof of concept, and we should all expect Boston to embrace the status quo as it tries to make another title run. Brown, who secured Finals MVP honors despite finishing second to Tatum in scoring across those five games against the Dallas Mavericks, has all the evidence he needs to prove glory can come without leading his team in scoring.

Kristaps Porziņģis is set to miss a good chunk of the year as he recovers from offseason surgery, and it's possible someone other than Tatum will take up his scoring slack. But it's more likely Tatum, who might still be feeling overlooked after limited playing time during the Olympics, uses the early part of the season to reaffirm he's a bona fide 30-point scorer.

Brooklyn Nets: Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas is on the court to do one thing: collect buckets.

If that sounds dismissive of the 22-year-old's other contributions, well...it is. But it's not wrong, either. Consider this: Thomas was the only qualified player in the league last year to average over 25.0 points per 36 minutes while averaging under 4.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds.

Thomas has been a laser-focused gunner for his entire career. He is the all-time leading scorer at the legendary Oak Hill Academy, whose alumni include Carmelo Anthony and Jerry Stackhouse. He was also the highest-scoring freshman in the country during his lone collegiate season at LSU.

With the Brooklyn Nets regaining control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks, the tank is about to shift into overdrive. Combine the incentive to lose with an alarming dearth of backcourt playmaking, and Thomas is going to be allowed to shoot and score to his heart's content.

Assuming good health, 25.0 points per game should be his expected floor. If he regains 2022-23's three-point hit rate of 38.3 percent and further hones his foul-drawing craft, Thomas could add close- and long-range weapons to his already impressive in-between arsenal. Don't rule out a sneaky run at a scoring title.

Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball

If you're looking for reasons to believe the Charlotte Hornets can get themselves into the play-in mix, the possibility that they'll have three 20-point scorers is a good place to start.

If LaMelo Ball is healthy, he's sure to exceed that mark—just as he has in each of the last three years. Even amid injury-shortened efforts in 2022-23 and 2023-24, he crested 23.0 points per game with minute averages in the low-to-mid 30s.

Miles Bridges has also put up over 20.0 points per game in each of his last two seasons, and Brandon Miller is coming off 17.3 points per game as a rookie. Though it was a boon for the Hornets that Miller got to stretch himself as a self-sufficient creator with Ball out for all but 22 games last year, the second-year wing should benefit from spending more time alongside one of the league's best young distributors.

It wouldn't be surprising if Miller attempted fewer shots and averaged more points, thanks to the efficiency boost of Ball's setups.

In the end, we have to go with Ball. He's got the longer track record of reliable scoring and remains the face of the franchise. Plus, if he nudges up his three-point attempt rate just a little, he'll have a good chance to contend for the league lead in made triples.

Chicago Bulls: Coby White

Among the many suboptimal aspects of the Josh Giddey acquisition—he's extension-eligible, doesn't defend and would better serve the Chicago Bulls if he were a future first-round pick—is its potentially damaging effect on 2023-24 breakout star Coby White.

White grew on all fronts last season, but his development as an off-the-dribble shooter was particularly intriguing. In 2022-23, 9.8 percent of White's field-goal attempts were pull-up threes, and he hit just 27.6 percent of them. Last year, those same shots accounted for 12.3 percent of White's field goals, and he drilled them at a 40.4 percent clip.

Because Giddey doesn't scare defenses as a shooter, he needs to be on the ball. That could diminish White's chances to keep building on his progress from last year.

Still, if we assume Zach LaVine will either miss too much time to qualify or, more likely, wind up playing for another team by season's end, this feels like White's scoring race to lose. And who knows, maybe Giddey will thrive as a primary creator and help White add a couple of easy extra buckets per game. Say what you want about the Aussie guard's defense and shooting, but nobody's ever questioned his unselfishness or passing acumen.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell

If Donovan Mitchell doesn't lead the Cleveland Cavaliers in scoring, it'll mean something extreme happened during the 2024-25 season.

On the hypothetical positive side, Mitchell slipping from the perch he's occupied since joining the Cavs could mean Darius Garland had an absolute breakout, Most Improved Player-worthy season. Or that Evan Mobley took an offensive leap so massive that even his longtime believers (points to self) couldn't have predicted it.

More negatively, Mitchell's failure to lead Cleveland in scoring for the third straight year would be attributable to injury.

Let's not risk speaking that possibility into existence and instead trust Mitchell to keep doing what he's done throughout his career. Only 12 other players have averaged at least 20.0 points per game every season since Mitchell debuted in 2017-18, and the five-time All-Star hasn't averaged fewer than 25.0 points per game since his 2019-20 season with the Utah Jazz.

Barring the unforeseen, Mitchell will remain firmly entrenched as the Cavaliers' chief supplier of buckets.

Dallas Mavericks: Luka Dončić

Kyrie Irving's best scoring average during a season in which he played at least 60 contests (and there have only been six of those) is 27.4 points per game. Luka Dončić has averaged more points than Irving's career best in each of the last five seasons.

That includes 2023-24, when Dončić led the entire league at 33.9 points per game and put up a 73-point night on Jan. 26, the highest single-game total of the last half-decade.

Forget the Dallas Mavericks. If you're picking anyone other than Dončić to lead the entire league in scoring next year, you've lost the plot. While linear progress is never guaranteed, Dončić is heading into his age-25 season fresh off his first Finals appearance and most productive campaign yet. After averaging 27.7 points in 2020-21, he's increased his scoring output in each of the last four years while, remarkably, upping his true shooting percentage in each of the last three.

James Harden (2018-19) and Kobe Bryant (2005-06) are the only players to crack 35.0 points per game since Michael Jordan did it in 1987-88. Dončić has a better shot than anyone else to join them.

Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokić

The NBA has taken to naming its awards as an homage to past greats. We've got the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each year's champion, the Michael Jordan Trophy for the MVP, the Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy for Defensive Player of the Year and on down the list.

In the unlikely event the league expands its award offerings to include an honor for the Best Scorer Who Doesn't Actually Want to Score, there'll only be one option when it comes to a name.

Nikola Jokič hasn't averaged fewer than 24.5 points per game in any of the last four seasons, three of which concluded with him taking home the aforementioned Michael Jordan Trophy. That's despite hard-wiring that sometimes makes it seem like the Denver Nuggets center would prefer to go entire games without shooting.

Whether he's passing up wide-open threes or ignoring single coverage in the interest of waiting for cutters to spring free, Jokić looks for his own shot only as a last resort. Just look at his highlight reel of Sombor Shuffles, almost all of which come with the shot clock winding down.

That shot is the perfect embodiment of Jokić's unparalleled skill, and he could probably shoot it 10 times as often as he does. But he only breaks it out when other options aren't available.

That's not a criticism. The approach obviously works for him, and it's worth wondering why other superstars don't treat offensive possessions like a hunt for the best possible shot—regardless of who takes it.

Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham

Bojan Bogdanovic was the only Detroit Pistons player not named Cade Cunningham to average over 20.0 points per game last year, but the veteran forward departed via trade at the 2024 deadline. Among Pistons who actually finished the season on the team, Cunningham's 22.7 points were over 7.0 points per game higher than his next closest teammate.

Jaden Ivey and Simone Fontecchio finished with matching runner-up averages of 15.4 points per game.

Ivey could take a step forward and has plenty of upside if he can knock down his threes at something better than last year's 33.6 percent clip. Perhaps newcomer Tobias Harris, who's typically been a mid-to-high teens scorer over the last decade, will make a push for second place on the team.

Nobody's going to catch Cunningham, though, especially in the wake of the 2021 No. 1 pick's legitimate gains as an off-the-dribble shooter last season. He was 18-of-42 on step-back threes and blew away his previous career high by hitting 35.5 percent of his treys overall.

Long viewed as a plus shooter with good mechanics whose conversion rate would climb as he got more reps, Cunningham seems sure to beat last year's scoring rate and perhaps even nudge it into the high 20s.

Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry is going to lead the Golden State Warriors in scoring, but his points may be harder to come by than ever.

The natural aging curve will have plenty to do with it as Curry enters his 16th season. While his back-to-back takeover efforts in the medal rounds of the Paris Olympics showed he could still summon his otherworldly offense in the biggest moments, the greatest shooter of all time is at an age when sustaining that level of brilliance gets much more difficult.

What's more, the Warriors lost Klay Thompson in free agency and don't have anyone on the roster they can be sure will take over that second-option mantle. Golden State certainly hopes Jonathan Kuminga rises to meet that challenge, and Brandin Podziemski is on everyone's breakout list. But those two are still relatively unproven and may not command enough defensive attention to keep opponents from keying solely on Curry.

Slippage as a two-point finisher means Steph's 50/40/90 days probably aren't coming back, but he's still the deadliest long-range shooter around and doesn't have any in-house competition for the team scoring lead.

Houston Rockets: Jalen Green

It's a credit to the Houston Rockets' depth of talent that any one of four players could finish the season as the team's leading scorer. That number could even be as high as five if you think Cam Whitmore, whose 23.7 points per 36 minutes were the highest on the team last year, will somehow find enough playing time.

The real contenders are last year's leader Alperen Sengün, Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr., whose progress as a spacer and potential role as a small-ball 5 could unlock exciting new gains in his game.

Green's 2023-24 season was defined by a scorching late-season run when he racked up 27.7 points per game in March. That surge was the main reason Green averaged more points than Sengün after the All-Star break. Sengün was out for much of Green's hot stretch, which raises larger questions about how well those two fit together.

Fortunately, we don't have to answer those here.

Sengün's passing and post game make him the better offensive player, and he will have the ball a ton as a hub of Houston's attack. But Green's incredible athleticism, developing shooting stroke and general scoring instincts make him the choice in a very close race.

Indiana Pacers: Pascal Siakam

Tyrese Haliburton is the Indiana Pacers' best player—a potential short-list MVP candidate (which he was last year prior to a hamstring injury) and the offensive piece they simply can't do without.

But he's not going to score like Pascal Siakam.

Haliburton is a little like Jokić in his "find the best shot" devotion, only with more frenetic verve and smirking craft. You can just tell he loves a slick assist more than a clean bucket. As evidence, consider how revealing it is that Haliburton successfully executed the rare backboard pass to himself, opening up a scoring lane with unquestioned flair...and then kicked the ball out for a corner three.

Who does that?

You'll note Siakam was the beneficiary on that highlight play, and it certainly won't be the last time that happens.

Haliburton is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, a threat to average over 20.0 points on a 50/40/90 split. But his league-leading 10.9 assists last season define him. Siakam, who hasn't averaged under 21.4 points per game since 2018-19, is the better bet to lead Indy in scoring.

Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James

If LeBron James doesn't lead the Los Angeles Lakers in scoring, it'll be by choice.

The only time during James' tenure with the Lakers that he didn't rank first in points per game was in 2019-20 when Anthony Davis' 26.1 narrowly edged out James' 25.3. That was also the year LeBron made the most concerted effort of his career to involve others.

Always a pass-first player, James led the league that season with 10.2 assists per game—a figure he hasn't approached since. It was almost as if he scanned his career resumé and noted the only deficiency was the lack of a double-digit assist season. With that taken care of, James freed himself up to top Los Angeles' leading-scorer list in each of the subsequent four years.

Age warrants mention. James will turn 40 in December, and it's simply not going to be as easy for him to get to his spots as it once was. Then again, James' downhill bulldozing seemed to work whenever Team USA needed it in Paris, and his average shot distance has actually decreased (meaning he's getting to the hole more often) in each of the last three years.

Davis is certainly good enough to pop off for close to 30.0 points per game if new head coach JJ Redick runs the offense through him, but James is such a reliable source of scoring that it's still too hard to choose anyone else.

LA Clippers: Kawhi Leonard

With Paul George gone and no high-scoring free-agent additions to speak of, Kawhi Leonard has an unobstructed runway to the LA Clippers' scoring lead.

Even if George were still around, Leonard's quietly excellent 2023-24 work would make him the favorite. Across 68 games, Leonard put up 23.7 points in 34.3 minutes per game, drilling 52.5 percent of his shots from the field and 41.7 percent from long range.

For most players, Leonard's declining free-throw frequency would raise some alarms. It's hard to make a living bullying opponents in the mid-range area.

Not so for Kawhi, who last year ranked in the 97th percentile in mid-range frequency at his position while canning over 50.0 percent of those shots for the second straight season.

James Harden can't get to the basket like he once did, and he'd have to enjoy a spectacular late-career renaissance as a perimeter shooter or foul-baiter to close the gap between the 16.6 points he averaged last season and the figure Leonard managed. You might cite availability concerns as a reason Leonard won't be LA's top scorer, but those apply almost equally to Harden, who only appeared in four more games than Leonard a year ago.

Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant

Doesn't it just feel like we're in for the mother of all bounce-back seasons from Ja Morant?

Suspended for the first 25 games of 2023-24 and then limited to a grand total of nine games before a shoulder injury shut him down for good, Morant should enter the upcoming season with renewed drive and maybe even a little healthy defiance.

After a pair of top-12 MVP finishes in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Morant was firmly in the "next face of the league" club. His Memphis Grizzlies won 50-plus games in back-to-back campaigns, he had his own signature shoe and the highlights just kept coming.

Last year was an ill-timed (and partly self-inflicted) interruption to one of the NBA's most exciting ascents. Bet on Morant resuming it with vigor in 2024-25.

Even as he worked the rust off in those nine games last year, Morant put up 25.1 points per game. Had he stayed healthy, he likely would have bumped that number up a couple of points. His last two full-season scoring averages of 27.4 and 26.2 points per game should represent a baseline ahead of the coming season.

Morant is still preposterously athletic, still gifted with one of the craftiest handles in the game and could view this year as a way to prove he's the same guy he was prior to his recent lost season. If he finally figures out how to hit threes at even a league-average clip, look out.

Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo

Jimmy Butler's absence is conspicuous here, as he's been the Miami Heat's leading scorer every year since he arrived in 2019-20. It's not like he's been threatening for the league-wide scoring title over these last five seasons, though.

That leaves an opening for Bam Adebayo, who's seven years younger than Butler and keeps adding layers to his offensive game.

Last year, Adebayo dipped his toe a little deeper into the three-point waters, getting up 0.6 treys per game (about three times higher than his previous career best) and hitting them at an intriguing 35.7 percent clip. Long a dangerous mid-range shooter, Bam's potential to expand his range gives him a real shot to overtake Butler. Ditto for his superior durability.

Butler's high single-season mark as a member of the Heat was only 22.9 points per game in 2022-23. Adebayo topped out at 20.4 points per game that same year. The gap actually narrowed last season, with Adebayo's 19.3 getting within just 1.5 points of Butler's 20.8.

If Butler views 2024-25 as a prove-it season following the summer's thorny, brief and unproductive extension talks, Adebayo may not have a shot. But if Butler's mild decline continues and/or his commitment wavers ahead of possible free agency next offseason, we could see a changing of the guard in the scoring-leader department.

Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo's cushion is large enough to make him the pick here, even while acknowledging that Damian Lillard is likely to improve in several areas as he settles into his second season with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Lillard endured off-court difficulties, including a divorce, just as he was acclimating to a new team for the fist time in his NBA career. He told Yahoo Sports' Vincent Goodwill that stretch had "probably been the hardest transition in my life." We should expect more from Lillard than last year's 24.3 points per game, his lowest average across a full season since 2014-15.

That said, Giannis has averaged over 30.0 points two years running and has hung around in the high 20s for the last seven seasons.

You could certainly go with Lillard on the basis of his bounce-back odds and the possibility that Antetokounmpo will have to shoulder a heavier defensive burden as Brook Lopez ages. But head coach Doc Rivers tends to keep things simple when he has superstar finishers. Look back at how his pick-and-roll spamming with the LA Clippers benefitted Blake Griffin, or how he helped Joel Embiid win back-to-back scoring crowns by convincing James Harden to feed him relentlessly.

Five years Lillard's junior and more durable over the last half-decade, Antetokounmpo is the logical, safe pick.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards arrived as an All-NBA superstar and purported future face of the league last year. This season, he'll start settling in—picking out drapes, making sure he's got his mail forwarded and maybe even clearing the mantle for a few trophies.

He's here to stay.

Edwards' scoring average has climbed in each of his four seasons, peaking at 25.9 points per game last year. Considering his true shooting percentage has also ascended every year as he's added layers to his game and developed as a foul-drawer, the smart money is on continued growth.

In addition to the 23-year-old clearly having more room to expand his game, the circumstances surrounding Edwards could point to a larger offensive role. Starting point guard Mike Conley will turn 37 prior to the season and should be handled carefully. If he rests more often or misses time, the Minnesota Timberwolves may not feel comfortable handing the keys to rookie Rob Dillingham.

Edwards was already taking on more and more playmaking duties last year, and that trend figures to continue as he absorbs some of Conley's duties. Longer stretches on the ball will yield more assists, but also more points. Don't be surprised if Ant gets close to 30.0 per game.

New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson won't be fighting as a middleweight any time soon, but the offseason visuals are still promising.

The two-time All-Star's commitment to conditioning, which may have started after an embarrassing and much-criticized In-Season Tournament performance last year, is yielding encouraging results.

Dejounte Murray comes aboard as another scorer for the New Orleans Pelicans, joining Brandon Ingram (for now) and CJ McCollum, both of whom are on long, uninterrupted runs of averaging at least 20.0 points per game over the last several seasons. That might make it seem like Williamson will have competition for the Pels' scoring lead, but the structure of the team's offense will combine with Zion's supernatural scoring gifts to ensure he'll come out on top.

New Orleans knows beyond any doubt that its attack works best when Williamson is on the ball and powering downhill. Murray will get his touches, as will McCollum and Ingram. But many of them will come after Williamson barrels into the lane off the dribble. Even with more talent around him, Williamson is going to come much closer to reaching the 27.0 points per game he averaged in 2020-21 than last year's 22.9.

New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson

The New York Knicks had better hope they don't need Jalen Brunson to go off for 40-plus points every night, which he did in four consecutive games during last year's playoffs. That incredible stretch was necessary; New York was short several bodies, and somebody had to keep the offense afloat.

With Julius Randle healthy, newcomer Mikal Bridges in the fold and OG Anunoby primed for a full season, New York has more than enough supporting talent to let Brunson cook at normal temperatures.

It's still nice to know he can turn the dial to "inferno" when necessary.

Though Brunson probably won't come close to last year's 28.7 points per game, the depth of scorers on New York's roster will also suppress everyone else's average. Randle will probably be the main challenger for the team lead, as he's averaged at least 24.0 points in three of the last four seasons, but Brunson is simply going to have the ball more and will benefit from defenses actually having to pay attention to someone else once in a while.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the toughest individual covers in the league. Slithery, constantly operating at a cadence that throws defenders off balance and among the best at suckering opponents into foolish fouls, last year's MVP runner-up produced one of the great scoring campaigns in NBA history.

Prior to 2023-24, there had only been eight instances in which a player who qualified for the scoring title averaged at least 30.0 points on a true shooting percentage north of 63.0 percent. Gilgeous-Alexander produced the ninth.

A lot of the same factors from Brunson's case with the Knicks apply to SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder, chiefly the surplus of surrounding talent.

Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are bound to improve. Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein add depth. But let's not forget that the main problem OKC ran into last postseason was the lack of a second high-end shot-creator. The gap between Gilgeous-Alexander and some of his teammates may narrow (we're referring mainly to Williams here), but it's still wide enough to be highly confident SGA will run away with Oklahoma City's scoring lead.

Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero

Too powerful for wings and too slick with the ball for bigs, Paolo Banchero is among the game's biggest matchup nightmares. And he's only got two years of experience.

A trajectory that started with 20.0 points per game and the Rookie of the Year award proceeded to 22.6 and an All-Star nod last season. That makes it pretty easy to be optimistic about where Banchero's career is headed.

An All-NBA honor might need to be the expectation for 2024-25, as Banchero continues his gains in three-point shooting accuracy (29.8 percent as a rookie to 33.9 percent a year ago) and downhill-attack frequency. As a sophomore, the burly forward added nearly 3.0 drives per game to his rookie average.

At times last season, you could see the game slowing down for Banchero. He processed actions better, moved more decisively and honed the difficult skill of taking what the defense offered. There's no reason to expect that trend to reverse ahead of his age-22 season.

Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid

There's not a lot of intrigue here, as Joel Embiid won the scoring title in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He would have secured his third in a row with a career-high 34.7 points per game last season if he hadn't missed too many games due to injury.

Technically, some other member of the Philadelphia 76ers could walk away with the "win" if Embiid logs fewer than 58 contests again. But he'd actually exceeded that figure during each of the two seasons before 2023-24 and has cleared that threshold in four of the last six seasons overall.

Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are both good bets to put up at least 20.0 points per game, and the Sixers have rounded out the roster with other capable bucket-getters in supporting roles. That's more of an argument to believe in Philly's overall offensive ceiling than anything else; Embiid will be this team's focal point, touch-time leader and primary threat whenever he's on the floor.

Based on the last three seasons, Embiid will get around 10 points per game from free throws alone. He could average 30.0 points on cruise control.

Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker

Kevin Durant is on the very shortest list of the greatest pure scorers in NBA history, but it's not a knock to say his best years are behind him.

With his 36th birthday coming before the 2024-25 season starts, KD is over eight years older than Devin Booker and far more likely to endure decline. Those two tied for the Phoenix Suns' scoring lead at 27.1 points per game last season, and choosing Booker is really just an acknowledgement of what happens as players age.

Durant can roll out of bed and get 30 points. So can Booker. The difference, to which anyone who's gone through it can attest, is that it's just not as easy to roll out of bed as you get older.

Maybe Booker will redefine himself as a do-it-all gap-filler after garnering praise for taking on that role with Team USA. He'll typically have tougher defensive assignments than Durant, and the Suns might accept some throttled-back scoring from him if it comes with shutdown defense and more facilitation.

More likely, Booker will look to do all that extra stuff and score in bunches as he enters his mid-prime years.

Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson

At this time a year ago, Scoot Henderson was regarded as a generational point guard prospect, arguably the best one to enter the league since Derrick Rose or Chris Paul.

Picking him to lead the Portland Trail Blazers in scoring, even after he finished seventh on the team last year and produced the lowest true shooting percentage in the league among the 116 players who attempted at least 700 shots, is all about believing one difficult year doesn't define a career.

Henderson earned that draft pedigree, and he deserves a little grace. Especially from anyone who bought into the hype.

It also helps that of the Blazers who finished ahead of Henderson in scoring last year, Shaedon Sharpe is the only one who's a) sure to be on the team by season's end, and b) likely to take on a larger share of the offense than he did in 2023-24. The other five all come with reasons for doubt.

Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons have been trade candidates for months; Malcolm Brogdon is already gone; Dalano Banton won't have as big of a role as he did in his 30-game cameo down the stretch; and Deandre Ayton has quite clearly topped out as a mid-teens scorer during his six-year career.

Henderson won't shoot it nearly as poorly as he did during his rookie year, and because so much of Portland's future depends on his development, he will get tons of opportunities to pile up numbers.

Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox

We have to repurpose the Durant-Booker logic for the Sacramento Kings, where De'Aaron Fox's youth gives him an edge over the longer-tenured, more established bucket-getting DeMar DeRozan.

Fox has actually averaged more points than DeRozan in each of the last two seasons. The margins are narrow, and DeRozan is certainly the more celebrated scoring force because he's been doing it for so much longer. But you just can't project their production for the upcoming season without considering the age gap. DeRozan is already 35, while Fox won't turn 27 until Dec. 20.

DeRozan's defenders might note that his craft-based isolation game is almost immune to aging and that Fox still depends on lightning speed and his quick-rise floater to score. Maybe Fox is the one who, in his eighth season, could lose a half step and have nothing like DeRozan's mid-post game to fall back on.

That feels like a stretch, as Fox continues to move at a pace that makes you wonder if your screen is skipping frames. He set a new career high with 26.6 points per game last season, a figure DeRozan hasn't produced since 2021-22.

It's possible both DeRozan and Fox will see their scoring dip as the Kings try to figure out how to spread the wealth on a team with loads of other capable offensive pieces. But it still seems as though Fox will win out in the end.

San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama

Before Chris Paul signed on, it wasn't so hard to imagine Victor Wembanyama leading the San Antonio Spurs in all five major stat categories.

As a rookie, he topped all teammates with 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals. Why couldn't he bump his assist average from last year's 3.9 to something in the 6.0 range and monopolize his team's statistical leaderboard? Tre Jones only averaged 6.2 dimes per game in 2023-24. Surely Wemby could have threatened that number.

Paul's presence probably rules that out, as he's never averaged fewer than the 6.7 helpers he doled out in 2019-20 with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Of course, CP3's setups in the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop will only make Wemby a bigger lock to lead the Spurs in scoring. Though defense will continue to define Wembanyama's game, it's almost impossible to imagine him putting up fewer than 25.0 points per game—more than enough to beat out Devin Vassell or anyone else on the roster.

Don't be surprised if Paul helps Wemby nudge up toward 30.0, which would put him in a class with LeBron James and Kevin Durant as the only 21-year-olds to produce a scoring average that high.

Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes shot only 26.7 percent from deep in 28 games after January 1 last season, so it's a little reckless to trust that his full-season figure of 34.1 percent is sustainable.

Then again, Barnes didn't just earn his first All-Star nod because his threes were falling prior to the New Year. He made gains in free-throw rate and two-point accuracy while also finishing absolutely everything (73.3 percent) at the rim. Given Barnes' athleticism and penchant for trying to dunk anything he possibly can, we should expect an increasing number of points generated at close range and at the foul line.

The Toronto Raptors moved on from OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam midway through Barnes' breakout year, and while some of that decision was financial, at least part of it owed to faith that Barnes was a viable cornerstone. The max rookie-scale extension he signed over the summer was further proof of that belief.

Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are both capable offensive starters, and Gradey Dick has shown signs of hitting that level as soon as this season. But this is Barnes' team. He's going to get the lion's share of shots, and he showed enough last season to suggest another step forward is in the cards.

Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen and Jayson Tatum were the only players in the league to make at least 75 dunks and 175 threes last season, and Markkanen pulled off the feat in only 55 games.

As scoring strategies go, maximizing the highest-value shot attempts is a pretty good one. Markkanen might be the best at it.

The Utah Jazz are in an odd situation, having just renegotiated and extended Markkanen after two straight stellar seasons with the team. He's coming off an average of 23.1 points on a 48.0/39.9/89.9 shooting split and is probably too good to allow Utah to lean into a tank. Will the Jazz rest him down the stretch, limit his minutes or otherwise get in the way of what should be another brilliant scoring season?

Maybe so, but everyone else with an outside chance at leading the Jazz in points—Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and John Collins—would be in line for similar treatment. The difference for those three is that Utah could (and probably should) look to trade them by the deadline.

That'll leave Markkanen as the only real candidate here. Hopefully, loads of points and all that money coming on his new contract will keep him satisfied as Utah figures out when it wants to start winning games.

Washington Wizards: Jordan Poole

If Kyle Kuzma manages to stick with the Washington Wizards through the entire season, this prediction probably won't pan out. But the Wizards have every reason to move the veteran forward on a declining contract as they re-orient themselves around draft capital and younger players.

Jordan Poole had a nightmare debut season with the Wizards, racking up turnovers, defending like he had banana peels for shoes and generally playing unserious basketball. All his worst qualities from his last season with the Warriors persisted, and he defied optimistic expectations that he'd amass huge point totals inefficiently.

At 17.4 points per game on a dreadful 52.9 true shooting percentage, Poole failed to tick both the volume and efficiency boxes.

And yet, here he is being selected as the team's leading scorer.

That owes mainly to Washington's dearth of experienced NBA players, but it also stems from a faint glimmer of hope that Poole can't be this bad again. Entering his age-25 season and likely to play a major on-ball roll, maybe the five-year vet can find some of the off-the-dribble magic and shot-making showmanship that got him paid in Golden State.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.