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Looking Ahead to Every MLB Team's Biggest Offseason Decision

Joel Reuter

There is still a month to go in the 2024 MLB regular season, but for teams not in the race for a playoff spot, the focus has already shifted to the offseason and building toward success next year.

With that in mind, what follows is a closer look at each team's biggest offseason decision, focusing specifically on their own in-house talent.

It's a mix of upcoming free agents who could depart, trade candidates whose status is up in the air and up-and-coming young players who may fill a key role in 2025 given the opportunity.

What is the biggest decision facing your favorite team this winter?

Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Decision: Christian Walker's free agency

Slugger Pete Alonso will be one of the most talked-about players of the 2024-25 free-agent class, but there is a strong case to be made that he is not even the best first baseman set to hit the open market this coming winter.

Here's a look at how Christian Walker's production stacks up to Alonso since the start of the 2022 campaign:

A late-bloomer who didn't become an everyday player until his age-28 season, Walker will turn 34 just before Opening Day next year. That might work in Arizona's favor, as it will limit the number of years he can realistically expect to receive on his next deal.

The two-year, $40 million deal that Anthony Rizzo signed prior to last year looks like a reasonable comparison.

Atlanta Braves

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The Decision: Max Fried's free agency

Left-hander Max Fried has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the past five seasons, posting a 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 573 strikeouts in 606.1 innings since the start of the abridged 2020 campaign.

Can the Braves afford to let him get away?

The 2025 rotation as things stand will likely feature Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Strider at some point early in the season.

Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched well enough to pencil him into a spot at the back of the staff, and the team has a handful of other intriguing young arms, but veteran Charlie Morton is a free agent and could opt to retire as he will turn 41 years old in November.

It's going to take a contract north of $100 million to bring him back, but Fried is as important to the team's success as any player on the roster.

Baltimore Orioles

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The Decision: Corbin Burnes' free agency

The Orioles went into last offseason with a clear need to add a frontline starter, and they did just that when they swung a blockbuster deal to acquire Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers.

The 29-year-old has a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 153.2 innings, and he is right in the thick of the AL Cy Young conversation heading into the season's final month as he gets set to anchor the staff for a potential deep October run.

It's going to take a boatload of money to sign him, but there's not a better use of that money for an Orioles team whose title window is just opening, and losing him would represent a setback with no equivalent option to replace him with on the open market.

Earlier this summer, I predicted a seven-year, $255.5 million deal for Burnes, which would give him a $36.5 million annual value that is a tick above the $36 million Gerrit Cole is making.

Boston Red Sox

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The Decision: Kenley Jansen's free agency

The Red Sox bullpen ranks 27th in the majors this season with a 4.47 ERA, and closer Kenley Jansen, setup man Chris Martin and deadline pickups Lucas Sims and Luis García are all headed for free agency this offseason.

The big name there is obviously Jansen, who is coming down the home stretch of what could be a Hall of Fame career and still pitching at a high level.

The 36-year-old has a 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 43 appearances this season, and he has converted 23 of 26 save opportunities, giving him 443 career saves. That total leads all active pitchers and ranks fourth on the all-time list, behind only Mariano Rivera (652), Trevor Hoffman (601) and Lee Smith (478).

He is currently playing out the second season of a two-year, $32 million deal, and a similar contract will likely be his earning power this winter.

Chicago Cubs

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The Decision: Moises Ballesteros' role in 2025

It's out of the Chicago Cubs' control whether Cody Bellinger decides to exercise a $27.5 million player option or test the free-agency waters once again, and the team doesn't really have any other notable free agents outside of Kyle Hendricks.

Instead, the biggest decision could be what role the team envisions for top prospect Moises Ballesteros in 2025.

The 20-year-old is currently playing at the Triple-A level, and he is hitting .287/.353/.486 with 18 doubles, 17 home runs and 63 RBI in 98 games this season in the upper levels of the minors.

Former top prospect Miguel Amaya has not shown enough offensively to be counted on as more than a backup, and scrapheap pickup Christian Bethancourt has strong numbers in a small sample size but an inconsistent track record.

Will the Cubs bring in a veteran starter, or will they leave a clear path for Ballesteros to win the starting job?

Chicago White Sox

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The Decision: Garrett Crochet's future

Garrett Crochet did not make things easy on the White Sox at the trade deadline.

"Crochet, 25, wants a contract extension if he's traded in order to pitch in the postseason this year, according to sources familiar with the situation. Crochet also is making it known he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen, citing health concerns for all of the above requests," Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote.

The hard-throwing lefty will go down with the ship this year as a result, pitching out his breakout campaign on the South Side. But with club control through 2026, he remains a valuable trade chip heading into the offseason.

The White Sox have not let him pitch beyond four innings since the beginning of July in an effort to keep him healthy and limit the added mileage on what is already a career-high 124.2 innings of work.

Expect them to get a deal done this winter, whether it's an extension to build around him or a trade to add to the farm system.

Cincinnati Reds

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The Decision: Jonathan India's future

Jonathan India was a popular name on the trade market last offseason due to a glut of infield options for the Reds, but he was also coming off a down year and the front office ultimately decided against selling low.

The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has bounced back nicely this season with his best numbers since that standout rookie campaign, posting a 108 OPS+ with 24 doubles, 11 home runs, 46 RBI and 10 steals along with a strong .355 on-base percentage.

The 27-year-old has two more years of club control remaining, and while a Noelvi Marte suspension and Matt McLain injury has solved the infield logjam this year, they will enter the offseason with a similar situation to the one they had a year ago.

If they can find a deal that brings back a controllable, MLB-ready starting pitcher, they will have to seriously consider flipping India this winter.

Cleveland Guardians

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The Decision: Shane Bieber's free agency

After showing diminished stuff in 2023, Shane Bieber threw the ball extremely well during spring training before logging 12 scoreless innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate over his first two starts to kick off the regular season.

Unfortunately, his resurgence was brought to a screeching halt when he suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. And due in part to his absence, the starting rotation has gone from a major strength to a question mark for the Guardians this year.

Prior to the injury, Bieber was a candidate to be traded and almost certain to walk in free agency as the Guardians generally stick to a tight budget, but the injury could actually increase his chances of returning.

A backloaded, two-year deal would allow the Guardians to find potential value while also giving Bieber a short-term runway to rebuild his stock for another run at free agency in the near future.

Colorado Rockies

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The Decision: Charlie Blackmon's free agency

Charlie Blackmon made it clear when he rejoined the Rockies last offseason that this was not a farewell tour and he had no plans of retiring after the 2024 season.

The 38-year-old is hitting .253/.324/.395 with 30 extra-base hits and 0.2 WAR in 94 games this season. And while that level of production from a player his age would generally mean settling for a minor league deal and a camp invite, this is the Rockies we are talking about.

The one-year, $13 million deal he signed following a 1.3-WAR season in 2023 was probably more than double his market value, so if he's interested in coming back for a 15th season with the franchise, expect Colorado to be ready to overpay once again.

Detroit Tigers

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The Decision: Tarik Skubal's future

The fact that Tarik Skubal was not moved at the trade deadline is no guarantee he is going to stick around in Detroit for the long haul.

In fact, there might be an even bigger market for his services this winter, especially once Corbin Burnes and Max Fried are off the board.

The 27-year-old would take home the AL pitching Triple Crown if the season ended today, going 14-4 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 155.1 innings over 25 starts following an injury-plagued 2023 campaign.

Trading him might seem counterproductive for a Detroit team on the rise, but he only has two years of club control remaining and his value will never be higher. If the Tigers don't think they can realistically contend for a title in the next two years, selling high would bring back a game-changing prospect haul.

If they do envision him as part of the future, an offseason extension could also be in the cards.

Houston Astros

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The Decision: Alex Bregman's free agency

The Astros locked up Jose Altuve with a five-year, $125 million extension last offseason, but they were unable to extend fellow infield star Alex Bregman.

"Jose did somewhat of a bridge contract because of the first contract he signed," agent Scott Boras told reporters in February. "In Alex's case, he's more in a normal free agent dynamic that you would see age-wise. Obviously, that has more impact in the free agent market for valuation and length of contract and all those things. He's a rather prestigious player."

Bregman, 30, has racked up 38.5 WAR over nine seasons in Houston, and he is currently playing out the final season of a five-year, $100 million extension he signed following a 2019 campaign in which he finished runner-up in AL MVP balloting.

With a 115 OPS+ and 25 doubles, 19 home runs and 59 RBI in a 3.0-WAR season, he profiles as one of the top bats on the market this winter.

They don't play the same position, but in terms of age and production, the seven-year, $175 million deal Marcus Semien signed when he joined the Texas Rangers could be a reasonable comparison for Bregman's earning power.

Kansas City Royals

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The Decision: Kyle Wright's role in 2025

The Royals have some work to do in free agency bolstering the lineup around rising superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and solidifying the back of the bullpen. But in terms of player-specific decisions, they are not facing any huge conundrums.

However, the presumptive return of Kyle Wright does raise an interesting question of what role he fills in 2025.

Not long ago, the 28-year-old was one of the best young pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 180.1 innings to finish 10th in NL Cy Young voting with the Atlanta Braves.

However, after struggling to a 6.97 ERA in 31 innings in 2023, he underwent shoulder surgery last October that sidelined him for the entire 2024 season. Despite his expected absence, the Royals acquired him in a deal that sent Jackson Kowar the other way, and now he is on track to return to action in 2025.

Will the Royals count on him to hold down a spot in the rotation?

Los Angeles Angels

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The Decision: Mike Trout's future

The Angels stopped short of a full-blown fire sale at the trade deadline, holding onto Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers, Logan O'Hoppe and other controllable pieces that were mentioned on the rumor mill.

However, it remains to be seen how the front office views the club's long-term outlook.

With a 53-72 record, they are well on their way to a ninth-straight losing season, and it has also been another frustrating campaign for superstar Mike Trout, who has played in just 29 games.

Since the start of the 2021 season, the 33-year-old has taken the field in just 266 of 611 games the Angels have played. He will earn $37,116,666 annually through the 2030 season, which makes trading him complicated to say the least.

The Angels need to decide if now is the time to blow it up and truly start over by eating some of that money and finding a taker for a player who is still a generational talent when healthy.

Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Decision: Walker Buehler's free agency

When healthy, Walker Buehler has been a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Dodgers, finishing in the Top 10 in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 and 2021 while also starring during the team's World Series title run in 2020.

However, he is not entering free agency on the best terms.

The 30-year-old missed the entire 2023 season recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, and he's been hit hard in his return to action this year, struggling to a 6.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while serving up a .299/.360/.551 line to opposing hitters.

He will hit the open market as an intriguing buy-low candidate, likely seeking a one-year deal to rebuild his value, and the Dodgers could well be the team that gives him that opportunity.

Miami Marlins

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The Decision: Jesús Luzardo's future

The fact that Jesús Luzardo stayed put during the Marlins' trade-deadline fire sale is not necessarily an indication that he is going to be pitching for them in 2025 and beyond.

The Marlins indicated leading up to the trade deadline that they would not trade the injured starter until he was healthy again, and now that he is officially out for the remainder of the 2024 season with a lumbar stress reaction, it will be interesting to see what that means for his future.

Will other teams want to see him healthy and pitching in a MLB game before they are willing to offer up max value in a trade, or will the Marlins find a willing trade partner this offseason?

Luzardo, 26, had a 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 208 strikeouts in 178.2 innings during a breakout 2023 campaign, and he is under club control through the 2026 season.

Milwaukee Brewers

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The Decision: Willy Adames' free agency

It was always unlikely that the Brewers were going to sign Corbin Burnes to a lucrative, long-term deal before he hit the open market, and they cashed in what they could of his value when he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason.

However, the situation with shortstop Willy Adames is a bit less clear.

The 28-year-old has developed into a solidly above-average everyday shortstop since he was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays during the 2021 season, tallying 13.2 WAR over 511 games in a Brewers uniform.

He is hitting .253/.333/.452 for a 116 OPS+ with 28 doubles, 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 2.3 WAR this season. And while rookie Joey Ortiz could be the shortstop of the future, replacing Adames' production will not be easy.

That said, he will be the top shortstop on the market this winter. And with a nine-figure payday likely, he could price himself out of Milwaukee.

Minnesota Twins

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The Decision: Carlos Santana's free agency

In terms of bang for your buck, Carlos Santana has been as productive as any player signed in free agency last winter.

The 38-year-old is hitting .239/.328/.428 for a 110 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 18 home runs, 55 RBI and 1.9 WAR in 116 games while playing on a one-year, $5.25 million deal.

If the Twins let him walk, it will fall on some combination of Jose Miranda and oft-injured Alex Kirilloff to fill the void unless the team makes another outside addition, so bringing back the proven production Santana provides at a reasonable price should be a no-brainer.

However, his strong play over the past year and a half and a lack of impact bats could mean more teams are interested this time around and his price climbs a bit higher.

New York Mets

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The Decision: Pete Alonso's free agency

It was reported earlier this year that the Mets offered Pete Alonso a seven-year, $158 million extension last June but the sides "never got close to a deal" that would have mirrored the final seven seasons of the eight-year, $168 million contract the Atlanta Braves gave to slugger Matt Olson.

A surge up the standings in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline moved the Mets from sellers to buyers and erased questions of whether Alonso would be dealt, but there is still no certainty he will be sticking around beyond the 2024 season.

One of baseball's most prolific home run hitters, the 29-year-old provides little value outside of what he does in the batter's box, and players with that profile can sometimes age poorly once their peak production declines.

With that in mind, it's fair to wonder if Alonso might have left money on the table turning down that extension offer, or if his asking price will remain sky-high as one of the most impactful bats available this winter.

New York Yankees

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The Decision: Juan Soto's free agency

Would the Yankees be better off spending $400 million on three or four quality players, rather than giving all that money to superstar Juan Soto?

That's the question they will need to ponder this offseason before deciding how to approach potentially losing the best player on the offseason market.

Still only 25 years old, Soto is hitting .300/.432/.601 with 24 doubles, 34 home runs, 87 RBI, 103 runs scored and 7.3 WAR over 121 games in his first and potentially only season in a Yankees uniform.

His age, track record and consistency mean he is going to get paid this winter, and while the Yankees no doubt want to keep him, they have multiple holes to plug on the roster and might be better served spreading that money around on multiple players.

Soto's free agency will be the biggest story of the 2024-25 offseason.

Oakland Athletics

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The Decision: Brent Rooker's future

The Athletics have found a legitimate offensive star in Brent Rooker, who turned in an unexpected breakout 2023 season at the age of 28 and has backed it up with even better numbers this year.

A first-round pick by the Minnesota Twins in 2017, he struggled to carve out a regular role with multiple teams before landing in Oakland where he posted a 127 OPS+ with 30 home runs and earned an All-Star selection last year.

The 29-year-old has raised his numbers across the board this year, hitting .289/.363/.570 with 21 doubles, 29 home runs, 83 RBI and 3.9 WAR in 108 games while making the league minimum.

His price tag is set to climb exponentially in the coming years with his first year of arbitration eligibility this coming winter, and that alone will be reason enough for the penny-pinching Athletics to consider moving him.

Philadelphia Phillies

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The Decision: Jeff Hoffman's free agency

The Phillies had a pair of All-Stars in their bullpen this season in Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman, but that didn't stop them from swinging a major deal to acquire closer Carlos Estevez from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline.

Estevez and Hoffman will both be free agents this offseason, and there is a case to be made that the latter is the more important piece to bring back into the fold.

The No. 9 overall pick in the 2014 draft and a Top 100 prospect prior to the 2015, 2016 and 2017 seasons, Hoffman never found consistent success as a starter, but his career has taken off since joining the Phillies in a bullpen role in 2023.

Over the last two seasons, he has a 2.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 with 10 saves and 28 holds in 108 appearances, and he will likely come with a smaller price tag than Estevez since he doesn't have the same level of ninth-inning experience.

One way or another, there is work to be done solidifying the Philadelphia bullpen this winter.

Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Decision: Bubba Chandler's 2025 role

The Pirates gave top prospect Jared Jones a spot on the Opening Day roster after a strong spring training performance, and they didn't wait long to promote Paul Skenes as he made his MLB debut on May 11, less than a year after he was drafted No. 1 overall.

Bubba Chandler is next.

The 21-year-old was a two-sport star in high school and was originally committed to play baseball and football at Clemson, but the Pirates gave him an above-slot deal as a third-round pick in 2021 and his stock has steadily climbed since turning his full attention to baseball.

In 93.1 innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A, he has a 3.18 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 111-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He could get a look as a September call-up, but the bigger question is what role he will play in 2025.

The Pirates have Skenes, Jones and Mitch Keller locked into three spots on the staff, and they could opt to keep a clear path for Chandler to pitch his way onto the Opening Day roster.

San Diego Padres

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The Decision: Jurickson Profar's free agency

It was hardly front-page news when the Padres brought back outfielder Jurickson Profar on a one-year, $1 million deal in February, but it has been the steal of the offseason.

The former top prospect is having a career year in his age-31 season, hitting .290/.388/.460 for a 142 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 19 home runs, 73 RBI and 2.8 WAR in 124 games.

There is nothing in his batted-ball data that suggests his breakthrough performance is a fluke, including a career-high 41.9 percent hard-hit rate and a .287 expected batting average that ranks in the 92nd percentile.

The question is how much they are willing to spend on a late-bloomer's career year.

The five-year, $75 million deal that Andrew Benintendi signed with the Chicago White Sox is a good comparison given his similarly uneven trajectory from top prospect to solid regular.

San Francisco Giants

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The Decision: Marco Luciano's 2025 role

Several teams have handed the reins at shortstop to an unproven prospect on Opening Day in recent years and found considerable success, with the Astros (Jeremy Peña), Cardinals (Masyn Winn) and Yankees (Anthony Volpe) all seemingly finding long-term solutions after taking a leap of faith.

The Giants were unwilling to take that same leap with Marco Luciano heading into the 2024 season, signing veteran Nick Ahmed to hold down the fort while the long-time top prospect continued to refine his game in the minors.

Now it looks like Luciano has been overtaken by fellow rookie Tyler Fitzgerald, who is hitting a gaudy .314/.368/.613 with 12 doubles, 14 home runs, 14 steals and 3.0 WAR in 64 games.

If Matt Chapman opts out of his contract and leaves, there could still be a place for Luciano on the infield, but his role in 2025 and beyond has become blurry at best.

Seattle Mariners

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The Decision: Jorge Polanco's club option

The Mariners acquired Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins hoping to inject some power into their lackluster offensive attack, but so far he has not lived up to expectations.

The 31-year-old has a 110 OPS+ for his career and a 33-homer season on his resume, but he has hit just .217/.301/.362 for a 94 OPS+ in 342 plate appearances this season and the Mariners continue to look for answers offensively.

With a $12 million club option for 2025 that carries a modest $750,000 buyout, the Mariners will need to decide if they are willing to bet on Polanco returning to his previous form or if they would rather cut him loose and look for an alternative.

Potential alternatives include Gleyber Torres in free agency and Brandon Lowe on the trade market.

St. Louis Cardinals

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The Decision: Paul Goldschmidt's free agency

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt has already made it clear he wants to return to the Cardinals this offseason, but amid the worst season of his career, it remains to be seen if the feelings are mutual.

He is a potential future Hall of Famer just two years removed from winning 2022 NL MVP honors, and even last year he produced a 120 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 25 home runs, 80 RBI and 3.4 WAR in 154 games.

However, he is hitting just .230/.290/.391 with 19 home runs, 49 RBI and 0.5 WAR in 119 games this season, and at 36 years old, it's fair to wonder if this is the end of his run as a star-caliber player.

Goldschmidt is earning $26 million this year in the final season of a five-year, $130 million deal, and he will likely need to accept a significant pay cut.

Tampa Bay Rays

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The Decision: Brandon Lowe's club option, future

The Rays spent the trade deadline trimming payroll and retooling the roster, and churning through MLB talent while sticking to a tight budget is something they do better than any organization in the sport.

That philosophy makes Brandon Lowe's status on the roster precarious at best.

The 30-year-old has a 128 OPS+ over seven seasons, and he has averaged 34 home runs, 99 RBI and 4.5 WAR per 162 games during that span, but he has only stayed healthy enough to play 100 games twice in his career.

The Rays have a $10.5 million club option on Lowe with a $1 million buyout for next year, and even if they exercise that option early in the offseason, it's no guarantee he won't be traded before Opening Day.

In fact, that's exactly what the Minnesota Twins did with Jorge Polanco last offseason.

Texas Rangers

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The Decision: Kirby Yates' free agency

The Rangers have several pitchers headed for free agency, most notably future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Looking forward, though, it's closer Kirby Yates who will be the team's most compelling offseason decision.

The 37-year-old battled through what was essentially three seasons lost to injury, as he made a combined 15 appearances in 2020, 2021 and 2022, but he pitched well enough in a setup role with the Atlanta Braves last year to earn a one-year, $4.5 million deal from the Rangers.

He quickly pitched his way into the closer's role and has gone 22 for 23 on save chances with a 1.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 in 46 appearances.

The bullpen has been a revolving door for the Rangers in recent years and was a weakness they managed to overcome en route to a World Series title in 2023. At the same time, Yates comes with plenty of risk given his age and injury history.

Toronto Blue Jays

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The Decision: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s future

The Blue Jays stopped short of a full-blown fire sale at the deadline, focusing on moving rental pieces while holding onto their controllable core.

However, this is still a franchise at a crossroads, and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s long-term status with the team is the biggest question facing the Toronto front office heading into the offseason.

The 25-year-old will be a free agent after the 2025 season, and while Bo Bichette is also set to hit the open market at the same time, he is coming off a down year and will likely be the club's Opening Day shortstop next year as they bank on him rebuilding his value.

On the flip side, Guerrero is having a huge season, hitting .317/.389/.552 for a 165 OPS+ with 33 doubles, 26 home runs, 81 RBI and 4.6 WAR in 124 games.

If they are unable to make any headway in extension talks this offseason, selling high now and flipping before Opening Day would be the best way to maximize his value.

Washington Nationals

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The Decision: Dylan Crews' role in 2025

Teams have not been shy in recent years about giving unproven top prospects an everyday role to start the season, and Dylan Crews could put himself in position for that type of opportunity with a strong final month.

The 2023 Golden Spikes winner and No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft following a fantastic junior season at LSU, he has already reached the Triple-A level in his first full professional season.

The 22-year-old is hitting .265/.338/.448 with 21 doubles, 12 home runs, 62 RBI and 23 steals in 96 games in the upper levels of the minors this year, and his overall polish means he shouldn't need much longer there.

With Lane Thomas traded at the deadline, there is a clear path for Crews to join rookie James Wood in the MLB outfield to begin the 2025 season.

   

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