Quinn Ewers of the Texas Longhorns Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Biggest Upset-Watch Games Early in the 2024 College Football Season

Morgan Moriarty

The long-awaited return of college football is nearly here. In just a couple of weeks, we will have live football on television.

As the season gets closer, it's time to take a look at potential upset alert games early in the season. For the first time ever in 2024, the College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams, as opposed to the four-team system that debuted in 2014.

With an expanded field, losing a close game or two during the regular season likely won't cost you a spot in the playoff. But an early-season loss to a lesser opponent could hurt you down the line.

Let's take a look at which games might give high-ranked teams a scare early in the season.

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech

The Aviva Stadium general view inside the stadium during the Aer Lingus College Football Classic. Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

When: Aug. 24, Noon ET

I know this will upset some Florida State fans putting this one on here. But do not sleep on this matchup, folks. Week Zero's game in Dublin, Ireland, feels like it has a lot of juice.

Florida State will be out for revenge in 2024 after being snubbed by the selection committee last season following Jordan Travis' season-ending injury. Although the Seminoles will be dealing with a good bit of roster turnover, ranking 89th in ESPN S&P+ returning production, Mike Norvell has this team in a good spot for 2024. At quarterback, the Noles will turn to former Clemson and Oregon State signal-caller DJ Uiagalelei. He'll be boosted by returning offensive tackle Darius Washington and transfer portal receiver Malik Benson.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, comes into this game riding a ton of momentum from last season. GT won four out of its last six games, including a come-from-behind win over UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish 7-6. It marked the first season above .500 since Paul Johnson's last year in Atlanta in 2018. Returning are quarterback Haynes King and star receiver Eric Singleton Jr. and four offensive linemen.

Florida State is a 12.5-point favorite. But I wouldn't be surprised if this one goes down to the wire.

Penn State at West Virginia

Penn State head coach James Franklin Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

When: Aug. 31, Noon ET

Perhaps no team will benefit from the expanded playoff more than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have notched double-digit-win seasons for two straight years and presumably would have made the 12-team field if it existed in 2022 and 2023. Plus, as an added bonus, PSU doesn't have to play both Ohio State and Michigan this year thanks to the Big Ten doing away with divisions.

With looming games against USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington, Penn State can't afford to stumble early on the road against WVU.

Despite coming off consecutive losing seasons, Neal Brown put together a 9-4 season in 2023. The Mountaineers rank 12th in returning offensive production, getting quarterback Garrett Greene, running back Jaheim White and receiver Hudson Clement back. WVU also gets home-field advantage for this one—the Mountaineers won all but one of their home games last season.

Penn State has plenty of talent returning in 2024, including quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and edge-rusher Abdul Carter. So it's no surprise that the Nittany Lions are an early 10-point favorite. But the Mountaineers should not be taken lightly in Morgantown.

Notre Dame at Texas A&M

Quarterback Conner Weigman of the Texas A&M Aggies Logan Riely/Getty Images

When: Aug. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET

Similar to Penn State, the Fighting Irish will benefit from an expanded playoff field. ND has reached nine and 10 wins in head coach Marcus Freeman's first two seasons in South Bend. Although the Irish have to replace a ton of talent this year, ranking 98th in returning production, a playoff bid is on the table.

But to do so, ND has to make sure it doesn't stumble early on the road against Texas A&M.

The Aggies enter 2024 with a new head coach in Mike Elko and high expectations. In his first year at Duke in 2022, Elko led the Blue Devils to a nine-win season. He inherits a pretty talented offense too, including quarterback Conner Weigman, running back Le'Veon Moss and tight ends Tre Watson and Garrett Miller via the transfer portal.

This Week 1 road trip looks like one of Notre Dame's hardest games. The Irish have home games against Louisville, Georgia Tech, Florida State and a road game against USC. If Texas A&M pulls off a home upset, the Irish's margin of error for the rest of the season would be thin.

Texas at Michigan

Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore Jaime Crawford/Getty Images

When: Sept. 7, Noon ET

Texas makes its debut in the SEC this season, but the Longhorns have a big road test in front of them before conference play. Michigan has a lot of talent to replace under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore this season, but the Big House will be rocking for this one.

The Longhorns look like they're in a great place to compete for an SEC title right away in 2024. Coming off a playoff berth last season, Texas gets the likes of quarterback Quinn Ewers and four offensive linemen back. Steve Sarkisian also added transfer portal receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden from Alabama and Houston, respectively.

But Texas has had some bad luck in the injury department at running back in fall camp. In the last two weeks, the Longhorns have lost starting running back CJ Baxter (knee) for the season, and freshman tailback Christian Clark reportedly also suffered a serious lower leg injury.

Michigan, meanwhile, returns some veterans on defense, like star cornerback Will Johnson, defensive tackle Mason Graham and safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige. Returning running back Donovan Edwards adds some experience to a pretty young offensive unit.

If Texas stumbles on the road against Michigan, it still has games remaining against Oklahoma, Georgia and a road trip to Texas A&M in a renewed rivalry. A loss at Michigan won't doom Texas' playoff hopes in 2024, but it'll make the margin for error much slimmer later in the year.

LSU at South Carolina

Garrett Nussmeier of the LSU Tigers Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

When: Sept. 14, Noon ET

An LSU team replacing a lot of talent going on the road to play a South Carolina team looking to rebound in 2024? Sign me up. Although LSU has had two 10-win seasons under Brian Kelly, he was hired to bring championships to Baton Rouge.

South Carolina is in a bit of a rebuilding year, as Shane Beamer looks to turn the page from a down 5-7 season in 2023. At quarterback, all signs are pointing toward the job going to in-state prospect LaNorris Sellers.

The 6'3", 245-pound signal-caller shows off a big arm on film. He can tuck it and run when he has to, and for a dude his size, that's a bit terrifying. On defense, the Gamecocks get back 79 percent of their returning production from last season, good for 10th nationally. Linebacker Debo Williams, South Carolina's leading tackler last season, returns.

On defense, LSU is led by rising junior linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. He put on some weight this offseason to move inside. That should instantly elevate new defensive coordinator Blake Baker's scheme.

At quarterback, this will be a big road test for presumed starting signal-caller Garrett Nussmeier, who has made just one start in his career. We'll see how he does against an experienced defense on the road. South Carolina has everything to gain in this one. LSU, meanwhile, has remaining games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. So a loss in Columbia would make the path to the playoff that much more difficult for the Tigers.

Oklahoma vs. Tulane

Oklahoma Sooners WR Nic Anderson John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

When: Sept. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET

This one might be a bit under the radar. New Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall would make a huge statement with a road win. Oklahoma, meanwhile, could see its playoff hopes in doubt with a loss.

Tulane's offense will be led by Oregon transfer quarterback Ty Thompson and USC transfer Mario Williams, and 1,000-yard rusher Makhi Hughes also returns. Defensively, the Green Wave return 59 percent of their production from a unit that was inside the top 25 in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 points per game.

Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold will be a first-year starter, replacing Dillon Gabriel. He gets some solid weapons returning around him, like receivers Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq and running back Gavin Sawchuk. Going up against a solid Tulane defense will be a good measuring stick for this new-look Sooners offense.

The last time these two met in Norman, Oklahoma escaped 40-35 in 2021. I wouldn't be surprised if this game was just as close as that one.

Clemson vs. NC State

Head coach Dave Doeren of the NC State Wolfpack talks with head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers. Lance King/Getty Images

When: Sept. 21, TBD

It'll be interesting to see where these teams will be at this point in the season. Clemson opens with top-ranked Georgia in Atlanta and then gets feisty App State as its home opener. NC State, meanwhile, plays Tennessee in Week 2. So both these teams could be entering this game with one loss already, or riding high after pulling off big upsets.

Regardless, this is an important game for both teams. Clemson has to make it back to the playoff for the first time in four seasons. NC State, which has had two nine-win seasons in the last three years under Dave Doeren, looks to prove it can be a legitimate ACC contender.

This one should feature an interesting quarterback battle. Clemson's Cade Klubnik should improve in a second season in Garrett Riley's offense. NC State, meanwhile, is hoping former Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall can take the Wolfpack offense to new heights. Defensively, both teams are pretty evenly matched.

The last three meetings between these two have been decided by 10 points or fewer. It feels like this one will be just as close, with the winner getting one step closer to the ACC title game.

   

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