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Predicting the 7 Biggest Flight Risks in 2025 NHL Free Agency

Adam Gretz

Now that almost all of the top 2024 NHL free agents have re-signed with their old teams or signed on with new ones, it's time to start taking an early look ahead to the players who could be on the move in the 2025 offseason.

It is always interesting to look a year ahead in free agency because there are always some big names entering the final year of their contracts to create the illusion of a huge free-agent signing period.

Most of those players will ultimately be re-signed by their current teams.

But occasionally, a few big-time players sneak through, and there could be a chance for a couple of them to find themselves on the open market next summer.

So, let's look at some players who could be the biggest risk to move to a new team next summer (and some who will probably stay right where they are).

The Non-Risks

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Let's start with a few big-name players who should not be considered a risk to reach unrestricted free agency or play for another team.

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

The longer Crosby and the Penguins go without a new contract extension, the more anxiety there might be among Pittsburgh fans regarding his future. But it still seems to be a matter of when, not if, he signs his next contract with the Pens to finish his career with them. Given the returns of Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, it seems almost impossible to imagine the 37-year-old playing for another team or the Penguins allowing that to happen.

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

Rantanen is the type of player who seldom reaches the open market. A top-tier offensive player, still in the prime of his career at 27, and a key part of a championship core. It will get done.

Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

The Rangers simply can't afford to let Shesterkin get away because he pretty much is their core player. With all due respect to Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox and everybody else on the roster, nobody makes this team run like the Russian. The Rangers know the value of a franchise goalie, and they have one of the best right now.

Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins

The Bruins seem committed to making Marchand a lifelong Bruin, and he seems to want to be a lifelong Bruin. And the 36-year-old is still a really important part of the roster. There's virtually no chance he gets to the open market.

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers

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In almost all cases regarding a player such as Leon Draisaitl, I would say there is virtually no risk of them leaving.

At the very least, he is one of the five best offensive players in hockey and more accurately is probably somewhere in the top three. He is still in the prime of his career and has formed one of the best 1-2 punches in hockey with Connor McDavid.

The Oilers were just in the Stanley Cup Final and should have a strong chance to make another deep run this season.

So, why leave the door open for the 28-year-old to potentially leave?

Well, it's as simple as this: What if the Oilers don't do as good this season and take a step backward? Draisaitl has spent his entire career to this point in Edmonton and the team's success has been extremely hit-and-miss.

The Oilers have had two deep playoff runs, a bunch of years when they missed the playoffs and a few other years when the roster had so many flaws that even the two-headed monster could not overcome them.

What if the German gets tired of that?

What if he wants an opportunity to go somewhere where he not only has a better chance to win more consistently but also takes on a bigger role as the No. 1 guy?

Realistically, Draisaitl probably re-signs for the Oilers before we get to that point. History suggests a player like this does not get away. But there might be at least a small chance that he might take advantage of an opportunity to bail if things go south in Edmonton this season.

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

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There is still a chance Mitch Marner could be out of Toronto before the summer, but it seems the Maple Leafs are content to run everything back again with their core for one more year.

But what if that still doesn't produce results in the playoffs?

How does a franchise justify throwing more money at a core that hasn't done anything?

Auston Matthews is not going anywhere. He is the face of the franchise, the best player, and signed for the long term.

William Nylander is also unlikely to go anywhere because he is also signed long-term and is just too good as a two-way player to trade.

Marner is set to be an unrestricted free agent after this season, and if this year produces another second or third-place finish in the division and a first-round exit, it might be time to start moving in different directions.

Not re-signing the 27-year-old would be the easiest option. Perhaps even the likeliest.

John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Everything that we just said about Mitch Marner? Yeah, it applies to John Tavares as well. Perhaps even more because he is not only older but also not as productive as his teammate.

The Maple Leafs are also reportedly set to make Auston Matthews the new captain of the team, replacing Tavares in that role.

Even if this season goes better for Toronto in terms of playoff success, there is going to come a point when it has to make some tough decisions with its core, and re-signing a player who will be 35 when his next contract begins might not be the best investment given the team's many other needs.

Unless Tavares takes a big hometown discount—which nobody in Toronto seems willing to do—it just seems like this season could be it for him in Toronto.

Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers

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Carter Verhaeghe has been one of the great free-agent signings of the salary-cap era and a crucial part of the Panthers core over the past three years, helping them win a Presidents' Trophy, a Stanley Cup and also make another Cup Final appearance.

The 28-year-old has been an outstanding player and a remarkably clutch figure in the playoffs.

But the harsh reality of building a great team is that it becomes almost impossible to keep everybody, and the Panthers are going to have some big contracts coming due this offseason with Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett set to become unrestricted free agents, while defenseman Aaron Ekblad will be a restricted free agent.

At some point, somebody might have to go.

This could be a great opportunity for Verhaeghe to cash in on the open market after being one of the NHL's biggest steals and salary-cap values at just a little more than $4 million.

He could probably come close to doubling that on the open market if he has another big year this season. He already has his Stanley Cup ring and now has a chance to get a major contract. Given his age, he might not get a better chance to get big money.

Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks

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After having his name in trade rumors for a couple of years, Brock Boeser remained in Vancouver for the 2023-24 season and ended up having a career year with 40 goals and 73 total points.

As great as he was, the odds of the 27-year-old repeating those numbers seem low, especially the goal-scoring total.

While Boeser has a great shot and strong offensive instincts, a lot of that goal-scoring surge was driven by a near-20 percent shooting percentage that is simply not sustainable over multiple years.

His production will almost certainly regress this season, and the Canucks might have no choice but to pass on paying him a big-money deal given how many other major contracts they have on their roster.

If that happens, Boeser should still be an attractive player on the open market and be able to score a big deal from a team in need of a top-six goal-scoring winger. There are always plenty of those.

Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

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Another player who seems to be perpetually involved in trade rumors.

Nikolaj Ehlers has been such a productive winger in Winnipeg that you can confidently pencil in for 20-25 goals and 55-60 points over 82 games. Not a star, but a really good second-line winger who would make any team better.

The Jets surprised a lot of people during the 2023-24 season and made a return to the playoffs, but there were some real flaws on the roster that were masked by some elite goaltending.

So far this offseason, they have not really done anything to meaningfully address those flaws and seem content to keep relying on their goaltending.

Maybe they could flip Ehlers to try to add more defensive help or additional forward depth, but it seems like a step backward could be in store this season and that might open the door even further for the 28-year-old to leave in free agency next year.

Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators' trade for Linus Ullmark was one of the first big moves of the offseason and should help solidify a position that has been a major weakness for them in recent years.

Will the 31-year-old be able to post the same numbers he did in Boston when he has to play behind an inferior defensive team and without having a platoon partner to split half of the starts with him? Can he help get them back to the playoffs and accelerate their rebuild?

All of that remains to be seen, but Ullmark should at least still be a significant upgrade over what the Senators were getting from Joonas Korpisalo and play at a reasonably high level.

It also seems like this might only be a one-year experiment for Ullmark and the Senators, as it would be a pretty major surprise at this point if the Swede opted to stay beyond this season.

Assuming Shesterkin re-signs with the Rangers, this is another thin year for potential unrestricted free-agent goalies and Ullmark would easily be one of the top options available.

If the Senators miss the playoffs again, there is little doubt he would want to explore his options and take advantage of one more opportunity to get a significant contract.

   

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