USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Biggest Wild-Card Teams in 2024 College Football Season

Morgan Moriarty

After a long offseason, our favorite sport finally returns in a couple of weeks. As the 2024 season inches closer, it's time to take a look at college football's top wild-card teams.

What's a wild-card team, you may ask. It's one that, on paper, is in the mix for a conference or national title, though falling out of contention midway through the season is also a plausible outcome for the year.

In other words, wild-card teams are a bit hard to trust.

This season is especially unique, given the two seismic shifts we've had within the sport.

The first being conference realignment, with Pac-12 teams merging mostly into the Big 12 and Big Ten, sans Oregon State and Washington State. The second being the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12.

A season of unknowns may make predicting newcomer contenders a bit hard, but here's our best shot.

USC Trojans

Miller Moss #7 of the USC Trojans Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

Lincoln Riley's first two Trojan teams have fallen short of title expectations. In 2022, USC lost twice to Utah, including a 47-24 romp in the Pac-12 title game. The Trojans then lost to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.

In 2023, USC started the season 6-0, but lost five out of their last seven games in the regular season. A 42-28 win over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl put them at 8-5, a worst-ever finish for Riley as a head coach.

With lackluster results for Riley so far, USC needs to compete for a Big Ten title immediately if he wants to earn some confidence. USC will look to do so while dealing with some massive roster turnover. The Trojans rank 71st in ESPN S&P+'s returning production ranking, including 95th on offense. Caleb Williams is now with the Chicago Bears, and his expected replacement, former blue-chip recruit Malachi Nelson, transferred to Boise State. As a result, USC will turn to Miller Moss under center at quarterback. Moss made his first career start against Louisville, finishing with 372 yards passing with six touchdowns and an interception.

USC lost leading receivers Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice to the NFL, as well as Mario Williams and Dorian Singer to the transfer portal. Defensively, USC will need to drastically improve—the unit finished 119th in total defense last season. We'll see if new defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn can do just that.

As for USC's 2024 schedule in the new Big Ten, it looks relatively manageable. The Trojans open against LSU in Las Vegas on Sept. 1. USC's road conference games include Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington and UCLA—all except Michigan and Washington look pretty winnable. The home games are Wisconsin, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Notre Dame. USC should be favored in most of those.

Riley getting USC to 10 or 11 wins in Year One the Big Ten, would ease some of the pressure he's created for himself. Anything less than that likely won't be good enough in Los Angeles.

Michigan Wolverines

Donovan Edwards #7 of the Michigan Wolverines Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images

Anytime a team wins a national title, they are expected to at least be in the mix to compete for a conference title the following year. While 2024 looks like it'll be a rebuilding year in Ann Arbor, first-year head coach Sherrone Moore could just as easily surprise some folks this season.

We'll start with the obvious, which is the coaching and roster turnover at Michigan. Jim Harbaugh is now in the NFL, as is quarterback J.J. McCarthy, receiver Roman Wilson, running back Blake Corum and leading tackler Junior Colson. In fact, S&P+ returning production ranks the unit 132nd nationally. Harbaugh also took a number of Michigan assistants with him to Los Angeles, including defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, defensive line coach Mike Elston and defensive backs coach Steve Clinkscale.

At quarterback, Moore will choose between Jack Tuttle, Davis Warren and Alex Orji under center. Whoever ends up winning the job will benefit from getting tight end Colston Loveland and running back Donovan Edwards back.

Defensively, Michigan returns some key leaders like cornerback Will Johnson, safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige, as well as defensive tackle Mason Graham. Still, the 99th returning production ranking means there are plenty of holes to fill.

Even if Michigan can overcome all the turnover, the Wolverines' schedule looks particularly tough. It includes a Week 2 game against No. 7 Texas at home, and tough Big Ten games like vs. USC, at Washington, vs. Oregon and at Ohio State on Nov. 30. We'll see if Moore can put together an impressive big season in Year One.

Clemson Tigers

Cade Klubnik #2 of the Clemson Tigers James Gilbert/Getty Images

Similar to Lincoln Riley, the pressure has been mounting for head coach Dabo Swinney. The biggest difference is that Swinney has two national titles to hang his hat on.

But after being left out of the playoff in the last four seasons, 2024 seems like a do-or-die season for Swinney at Clemson. Anything less than an ACC title game berth will feel like a failure.

The good news for Clemson is that production-wise, there is a lot of talent returning on offense. Quarterback Cade Klubnik should improve with a second season under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Klubnik will also get back leading receiver Tyler Brown from last season, as well as starting running back Phil Mafah. In total, the unit ranks 13th in returning production S&P+.

Defensively, the unit returns starting linebacker Barrett Carter and safety RJ Mickens, who will lead a relatively young unit. The Tigers actually finished inside the top-10 in total defense last season, so there's still room for improvement.

So what will it take to get Clemson back into the playoff? Scheduling-wise, it's a bit of a mixed bag. The Tigers don't exactly ease into things, opening against top-ranked Georgia in Week 1. Depending on how close Clemson can keep this one should be a good measuring stick for just how high the Tigers' ceiling is.

Following a home game against App State on Sept. 7, Clemson's home ACC opponents include NC State, Stanford, Virginia, Louisville and in-state rival SEC South Carolina at home to close out the season. The road ACC trips include Florida State, Wake Forest, VIrginia Tech and Pitt—all but the FSU game look pretty winnable. Swinney can't afford anything less than a playoff berth in 2024.

Utah Utes

Cameron Rising #7 of the Utah Utes Chris Gardner/Getty Images

The Utah Utes had an uncharacteristic down season in 2023, thanks to getting hit with the injury bug. Starting quarterback Cameron Rising, who tore both his ACL and MCL in the Rose Bowl at the end of the 2022 season, was out for the entire year. The Utes shuffled between quarterbacks Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson with mixed results.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham's career in Salt Lake has been remarkably impressive, including a 162-79 overall record, and two straight Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022. As Utah moves to the Big 12, Whittingham will look to compete for a conference title right away, if his team can stay healthy.

Rising is set to return for 2024, two seasons removed from his best year yet, throwing for 3,034 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He rushed for 465 yards and six touchdowns, too. Rising will benefit from getting running back Micah Bernard back, who played in just two games last year. Also sidelined was tight end Brant Kuithe, who has 1,882 receiving yards with 16 touchdowns over five seasons with the Utes. USC transfer receiver Dorian Singer should be Rising's new No. 1 target, assuming Rising can start the season rust-free.

Utah's defense ranks 79th in returning production, and will hope to get starting defensive end Logan Fano back from an ACL tear. Utah also returns Junior Tafuna and Keanu Tanuvasa along the defensive line, as well as cornerback Zemaiah Vaughn and safety Tao Johnson in the secondary.

So, what does Utah's new Big 12 schedule look like for 2024? The home games include Baylor, Arizona, TCU, BYU and Iowa State. The road trips feature Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Houston, Colorado and UCF. Moving to a new conference that includes fellow Big 12 title contenders like Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Kansas makes 2024 a season that's a bit tricky to predict for Utah, especially coming off an injury-plagued season.

LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The SEC will look quite different in 2024. The conference is doing away with divisions, as it welcomes Texas and Oklahoma to the league. And for the first time in decades, the conference will not have Nick Saban roaming the sidelines in Tuscaloosa.

So for head coach Brian Kelly entering Year Three in Baton Rouge, he would be wise to capitalize on the changing of the guard within the conference. His first two seasons have both been 10-win years, but zero conference title game appearances. Can he get over that hump in 2024?

We'll start with what LSU has to replace from last season, which is a good bit. Starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are all gone to the NFL. But senior tackle Will Campbell is returning, along with three other offensive linemen.

Starting under center is expected to be quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who made his first career start in the ReliaQuest Bowl last season. He threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns during LSU's 35-31 victory.

The defense, led by linebackers Harold Perkins Jr, and Gregg Penn, will have a new coordinator in Blake Baker, whom Kelly hired from Missouri. The unit, which will look to improve from its 108th total defense ranking last season, returns 71 percent of its returning production.

Now, a brief look at LSU's schedule. It includes the season opener against USC, and another non-conference game against a Big Ten team in UCLA on Sept. 21. As for its SEC slate, it features road trips to South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida. The home games include Ole Miss, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Sure, it isn't incredibly tough, but it isn't a cake walk either, especially when you draw contenders Ole Miss and Alabama. We'll see just how well LSU can rebuild in a seemingly critical year for Brian Kelly.

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Danny Stutsman Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Brent Venables did a good job from Year One to Two, rebounding from a 6-7 finish in 2022 to reach 10 wins in 2023. And Oklahoma returns plenty of talent from last season too, ranking 15th overall in returning production.

The biggest return in production is on defense, which returns leading tackler in linebacker Danny Stutsman. Also returning are linebackers, Kip Lewis, Jaren Kanak and Kobie McKinzie and defensive end Ethan Downs.

On offense, former 5-star quarterback prospect Jackson Arnold is expected to replace Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon. Arnold threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions in his first start vs. Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. He'll benefit from getting receivers Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq back, as well as running back Gavin Sawchuk.

But the big question surrounding Oklahoma as it moves into the SEC this season isn't about talent, but if it can navigate a grueling schedule.

The out-of-conference slate includes Temple, Houston and Tulane. Then comes the doozy of the SEC slate, featuring home games against Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina and Alabama. The road tests include Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU. All but two of those teams are ranked in the Top-15 of the preseason AP Poll that was released on Monday.

Honorable Mention: Colorado Buffaloes

Head coach Deion Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

I mean, is there a more perfect encapsulation of Colorado's season last year than a wild card one? In head coach Deion Sanders' first season at the FBS level, Colorado started off 3-0. The Buffs were even ranked as high as 18th nationally after wins over TCU, Nebraska and Colorado State.

But things unraveled quickly in Boulder, as the Buffs lost eight of their last nine games, finishing 4-8 on the season. Heading into 2024, Sanders seems to have addressed some of the most glaring issues from last season.

Yes, I know Colorado isn't a legitimate playoff or Big 12 contender just yet, but the talent it has returning paired with the Deion Sanders factor makes it worthy of an honorable mention here.

For starters, Colorado has massively beefed up in the trenches, landing transfer portal products like defensive linemen Samuel Okunlola and Quency Wiggins from Pitt and LSU, respectively. 5-star offensive lineman Jordan Seaton and transfers Tyler Johnson (Houston) and Justin Mayers (UTEP) should help avoid quarterback Shedeur Sanders being the most-sacked quarterback in the FBS, like he was last season. Also returning is star receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, and transfers Jimmy Horn Jr. and Will Sheppard, will gives Shedeur even more weapons.

Sanders also has a new-look coaching staff. Pat Shurmur, who served as co-offensive coordinator at the end of the 2023 season, will run the offense. Longtime Cincinnati Bengals assistant Robert Livingston will call the defense.

Now let's take a brief look at the Buffs' schedule as they move to the Big 12. Colorado opens on Thursday, Aug. 29 with North Dakota State at home, then road trips to Nebraska and Colorado State before conference play begins.

The Buffs' home slate features Baylor, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Utah and Oklahoma State. The away games are UCF, Arizona, Texas Tech and Kansas. All but two of those teams missed bowl games last year in Cincy and Baylor. We'll see if Colorado can rebound with a schedule featuring some pretty decent teams overall.

   

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