It's time to talk NBA swing pieces—the players who may not be stars in the conventional sense, but who'll still have an outsized impact on their teams in 2024-25.

The best X-factors have a wide range of possible outcomes in the season ahead. Ideally, they've offered mixed-bag results in the past that make it difficult to be sure what they'll do going forward. Depending on whether they hit the high or low end of their potential, these guys could determine playoff fates, team identities and even overall franchise trajectories.

For example, where would the Dallas Mavericks have been if PJ Washington hadn't leveled up after the trade deadline? And what would have become of the Boston Celtics if Derrick White hadn't developed into a superstar role player?

NBA squads thrive or fail on the strength of their stars, but don't discount the difference players like these can make.

Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson broke out last year, cranking up his points per game from 5.6 to 16.0 while tapping into a level of shooting efficiency (35.5 percent from deep) and a setup game (3.6 assists) that he'd never shown before.

This isn't so much a question about whether Johnson's arrival was for real. His transition finishing is undeniable, and anyone who watched him confidently stroke threes and sling the ball around for transition assists knows his 2023-24 numbers were rooted in legitimate skill increases. He earned those career-high 33.7 minutes per game.

Less certain is Johnson's ability to leverage those gains into team success.

The 22-year-old only graded out as the Atlanta Hawks' fifth-best player by Estimated Plus/Minus, and his team's net rating was actually worse with him on the floor than off. Neither of those figures should overshadow Johnson's 6'9" size, athleticism or youth—all of which suggest he's on the road to stardom. But at best, it was statistically unclear that Johnson actually helped the Hawks' bottom line last season.

With Dejounte Murray traded away and replaced by players who won't spend nearly as much time on the ball, Johnson will get more opportunities than ever to expand his game and impact. If he takes another step forward, he'll give the Hawks the best non-guard running mate Trae Young has ever had.

Boston Celtics: Xavier Tillman

For as long as Kristaps Porzingis is out to start the 2023-24 season, the Boston Celtics will handle the center position on a night-to-night basis. Most times, Xavier Tillman should be the first man up.

Luke Kornet has the length, lob-finishing and shot-blocking edges at 7'2", but the 29-year-old phantom closeout king doesn't allow the Celtics to employ full-on switching defensive schemes. Kornet will have his uses, but it's Tillman who'll give Boston the option to play the way it wants on both ends.

Tillman is an elite switch defender for a big man, has great hands, grades out as an excellent facilitator and rarely turns the ball over. Add a credible three-point shot, and Tillman's scouting report would read a lot like Al Horford's.

Boston obviously trusts the 38-year-old vet more than either Tillman or Kornet, but Horford can't be expected to log more than the 26.8 minutes per game he managed last season. The closer Tillman gets to replicating Horford's shooting, the more he'll allow the Celtics to sustain the style they like.

Tillman surprisingly got up 3.7 long-range tries per 36 minutes with Boston last season, but his 28.6 percent hit rate left a lot to be desired. You'd better believe his teammates are rooting for him to fire away, though. They understand how much Tillman and his shooting could matter going forward.

Brooklyn Nets: Noah Clowney

The Brooklyn Nets got control of some of their picks back in a July trade with the Houston Rockets (including their 2025 first-rounder), which means their rebuild is about to start in earnest.

Noah Clowney projects as one of the most exciting unknowns in that effort.

The skinny 19-year-old turned in most of his 2023-24 highlights on defense, where he flashed length and timing as a roving paint-protector. Clowney's 2.4 percent block rate ranked in the 96th percentile at his position. Though lacking the heft and experience to handle more complicated point-of-attack defense as a center, particularly against the pick-and-roll, Clowney can cover huge swaths of the court as a helper.

That athleticism also allowed for some intriguing work against guards in space.

Watch him hang with Tyrese Haliburton's herky-jerky handles before swatting the All-NBA guard's attempt off the board, and you can see what Clowney brings to the table.

A 36.4 percent shooter from three-point range as a rookie, Clowney also showed potential to space the floor offensively. If he spreads that defense and shooting across more than the 370 minutes he logged in his debut season, Clowney could give the Nets a potential building block.

In their situation, nothing could be more valuable than that.

Charlotte Hornets: Tre Mann

In 28 games after joining the Charlotte Hornets via trade last season, Tre Mann put up 11.9 points, 5.2 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while hitting 36.4 percent of his threes.

Late-season samples can be misleading, and it wasn't just the Oklahoma City Thunder's depth that limited Mann's opportunities on his previous team. But the combo guard looked like a real rotation option after landing in Charlotte.

Of Mann's 21 double-digit scoring performances last season, 18 came with the Hornets. Crafty on the ball and flashing playmaking chops for the first time in his career, Mann could be the kind of rising talent a rebuilder like the Hornets desperately need.

With good size at 6'5" and a high level of comfort on or off the ball, Mann projects as a good fit with Charlotte's top young pieces, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

There were even a few indicators that Mann, not known as a defender, could help out on the other end as well. Though slight of frame and inexperienced, the 2021 first-rounder showed an active, disruptive streak in Charlotte last year, ranking in the 91st percentile at his position in steal rate.

If he replicates or builds on that production, Mann would give the Hornets an intriguing third guard with the potential to be more than that.

Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey

We're going to find out how much of Josh Giddey's fall from prized-prospect grace was his fault, and how much owed to the difficult situation he faced with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

And the Chicago Bulls, who landed Giddey from OKC for Alex Caruso, will learn right along with the rest of us.

In OKC, Giddey's probing style and clear passing acumen showed he was wired to make his teammates better. But inability to threaten defenses as a shooter meant he had little off-ball value. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams deservedly sat above Giddey in the pecking order, which left Giddey struggling to find an ideal fit.

It's hard to label an age-21 season that featured 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists as a failure, but Giddey simply wasn't positioned to succeed with the Thunder. All three of those figures were career lows.

Circumstances should be different with the Bulls where, if Zach LaVine ever gets traded, Coby White will be Giddey's only real competition for backcourt touches.

Can the former No. 6 overall pick take on a more prominent position in the offense, rack up triple-doubles and give the Bulls a cornerstone? Or will Giddey's suspect shooting and shoddy defense make Chicago wish it'd taken one of the many pick-heavy trade offers it got for Caruso instead?

Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland

Darius Garland is the most decorated player we've covered so far, but he looked nothing like his former All-Star self in 2023-24.

A series of injuries knocked Garland's season off track right away, with the most significant being the broken jaw he suffered in mid-December. That one cost Garland nearly six weeks and several pounds, as part of the recovery process involved having his jaw wired shut. Upon returning, the point guard was never quite the same.

Garland's individual production was down across the board—points, assists, three-point shooting, even free-throw attempt rate. That contributed to the Cleveland Cavaliers' offense slipping from seventh in 2022-23 to 18th last season, and it limited the team's top four players—Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen—to just 819 total possessions together, about half as many as the year before.

Garland isn't Cleveland's best player, but his absence and diminished status upon returning last year was a clear issue. Bright side: He should be healthier and ready to get Cleveland back into the top 10 on offense this coming season.

Dallas Mavericks: Klay Thompson

ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Kendra Andrews reported in July that a source close to Klay Thompson described him last year as "miserable" over his contract situation, role and physical decline since losing two-plus years to devastating injuries.

Maybe changing jerseys will be a little like turning the page. Maybe the same frustrations that dogged Thompson, compromising his shot selection and darkening what used to be the brightest of vibes with the Golden State Warriors, won't follow him to the Dallas Mavericks.

Odds are, he'll still be a defensive liability against guards. The lateral quickness that allowed Thompson to wrangle lead ball-handlers a decade ago isn't there anymore. But will he still force the issue like he did with the Warriors, firing off contested heat-check jumpers when he's 0-of-6 from the field?

On the other hand, if he's willing to accept a diminished role, one dependent mainly on spoon-fed setups from Luka Dončić, Thompson can be a major spacing asset to a Dallas offense that might at times look unstoppable.

Denver Nuggets: Christian Braun

Christian Braun will be thrust into Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's vacated starting spot this season, and the Denver Nuggets' chances of returning to the Finals may depend on how well he fills the void.

Braun is a different player than KCP. He makes his impact as a rugged, high-energy defender and rebounder—flying around the floor and throwing himself into scrums. Last year's 38.4 percent hit rate on threes (which came on just 2.0 attempts per game) was encouraging, but the expectation should be that Braun will be mostly ignored on the perimeter and forced to prove he's not the undisputed fifth offensive option.

It's not ridiculous to assume that Nikola Jokić will figure out how to make Braun nearly as valuable as KCP—just in a different way. And the burly 6'6" guard has a chance to be almost as impactful as Caldwell-Pope on defense if the Nuggets can accept the growing pains he'll surely suffer in an expanded role.

It's not a foregone conclusion that the Nuggets can sustain their first-unit dominance with Braun in KCP's place, but there's hope.

Though it only came in a vanishingly tiny 52 possessions, the Nuggets were a plus-16.3 last season when Braun slotted into KCP's spot next to Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Jokić.

Detroit Pistons: Ausar Thompson

In the eyes of some, Ausar Thompson may already be the Detroit Pistons' second-most important player. But for those who like to make judgments with a little more information, and for the Pistons themselves, Thompson's upcoming second season will be critical.

It should clearly define whether he sits right behind Cade Cunningham on the team's cornerstone depth chart or not.

Before a blood clot ended his season in early March, the 6'7" forward flashed top-tier athleticism in transition, on the boards and as a defender. It's hard to be sure of the former No. 5 pick's ceiling without knowing whether his outside shot will ever come around (18.6 percent from deep as a rookie), but Thompson projects as an impact role-player regardless.

With percentile rankings in block rate, steal rate, offensive rebound rate and defensive rebound rate that sat in the 88th percentile or better at his position last year, Thompson was a chaos-generator of the highest order. Already a solid passer with good instincts, Thompson's next step must be to score efficiently.

If he can do that, Detroit will have itself an ideal complement to Cunningham. If he can't, the Pistons will have a hard time avoiding yet another step backward as they search for better building blocks.

Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga

We might be going on three straight seasons in which Jonathan Kuminga profiles as the Golden State Warriors' X-factor.

Stephen Curry and the Dubs need Kuminga to arrive more than ever. This is year No. 16 for Steph, who just showed he could still dominate the biggest moments during Team USA's run to gold in Paris. With Klay Thompson gone, Curry's Warriors don't have anyone in that second-star mold...unless Kuminga seizes the moment with a breakout campaign.

Signs point to that being a possibility. In 2023-24, the hyper-athletic forward played 74 games and averaged 16.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He played just 26.3 minutes per game, though, and didn't solidify himself as a full-time starter until partway through the season. Maybe Kuminga's per-36 averages of 21.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists on 52.9 percent shooting from the field could serve as a baseline for 2024-25.

No one else in NBA history had ever posted those rates in an age-21 season while playing as many games as Kuminga did.

The Warriors have long been hoping for more consistent shooting, decision-making, rebounding and defensive attentiveness from their highest-ceiling prospect. If they get it, maybe Curry will have enough support to lead one last deep postseason run.

Houston Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr.

Amen Thompson, rookie Reed Sheppard, Jalen Green and even Alperen Sengün could all take strides forward this season, but Jabari Smith Jr. stands out as the young Rocket whose potential leap would matter most.

Smith's tantalizing shooting stroke was a key reason the 6'11" forward came off the board at No. 3 in the 2022 draft. Last season saw Smith deliver on his shooting promise as a prospect, drilling 36.3 percent of his 5.0 tries after hitting only 30.7 percent on lower volume as a rookie.

Confidence growing as the season progressed, Smith scored in double figures in 20 of his final 25 games.

Just as important as his facility from long range, Smith's potential to handle longer stretches as a defensive anchor at center might trigger several larger considerations. Houston could look to move the extension-eligible Sengün ahead of 2025 restricted free agency if it starts to look like Smith is the frontcourt piece more worthy of long-term investment.

That's not to say Smith and Sengün are incompatible. The former's spacing and versatility actually make the latter's shooting and defensive limitations easier to hide. But Chris Bosh, to whom Smith compares favorably (minus the post game) hit his apex as a stretchy, switchy small-ball 5. Ideally, the Rockets will see Smith excel in that role more than ever this season.

Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard

The Indiana Pacers already made a show of faith in Andrew Nembhard's potential, handing him a three-year, $59 million extension in July. If he rewards that investment by playing as well as he did during his team's run to the Eastern Conference Finals, it'll put Indiana in good position to advance deep into the postseason for a second consecutive year.

Perhaps more importantly, it could force the Pacers to make some significant changes to the plans they've been mapping out.

Nembhard's postseason averages of 14.9 points and 5.5 assists are reachable across a full season, even if he's not going to match the 56.0/48.3/76.9 shooting split he managed in 17 playoff games. That level of production next to Tyrese Haliburton would either render Bennedict Mathurin expendable or relegate him to the Sixth Man duties his score-only profile has long suggested fits him best.

Mathurin was the No. 6 overall pick in 2022 and his career scoring average of 15.8 points per game shows he can fill it up. But the Pacers won't be able to justify extending Mathurin if Nembhard continues to be the better overall player at the same position—certainly not with Haliburton and Pascal Siakam already locked in at max rates.

Los Angeles Clippers: Kris Dunn

Point guard Kris Dunn is one of the best point-of-attack defenders at his position, and his growth as a shooter led to the three-year, $17 million contract he earned via a sign-and-trade from the Utah Jazz to the LA Clippers.

If he maintains those shooting gains, he'll project as an elite backup for James Harden—one capable of starting for the veteran in a pinch and even playing next to him when necessary.

Dunn was a 29.9 percent shooter from beyond the three-point arc until he landed in Utah for a 22-game stint during the 2022-23 season. He buried 47.2 percent of his treys in that late-season audition, followed it up with a 36.9 percent clip last year and now heads into 2024-25 looking to validate that improvement once and for all.

The samples are tiny enough to justify skepticism. Dunn has never attempted more than 3.2 triples per 36 minutes.

Still, defensive disruptors who provide even a little off-ball gravity are rare. Rarer still are the ones who can create shots for others with their facilitating instincts. In short stints, Dunn has flashed difference-making abilities on both ends. The Clips need him to do it in a big role over a full season for the first time in his career.

Los Angeles Lakers: Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent barely played last year, has never averaged more than 9.4 points per game and converts his field goals at a career rate of just 39.5 percent.

And yet he's somehow one of the most critical pieces of the Los Angeles Lakers' upcoming season.

Signed to a three-year, $33 million deal last summer, Vincent was supposed to be the ideal backup to D'Angelo Russell at the point—one who could handle the offense on his own when necessary but also provide defensive oomph and off-ball value as a shooter in other lineup constructions. The Lakers were probably hoping for something along the lines of Vincent's career season with the Miami Heat, when he averaged 8.7 points, 3.1 assists and shot 36.8 percent from deep in 2021-22.

Instead, L.A. got just 11 appearances marked by ghastly scoring efficiency from Vincent, whose season was essentially wrecked by a knee injury that required surgery.

Healthy and looking to deliver on expectations, Vincent could be the boost the Lakers need after an offseason that saw them make no meaningful additions outside of drafting rookie shooter Dalton Knecht.

Memphis Grizzlies: Zach Edey

It's unusual for a rookie to land in an X-factor discussion, but it's also unusual for a rookie to project as a critical piece of a playoff team's starting lineup.

That's where we are with first-year center Zach Edey, the back-to-back winner of the AP Player of the Year award for his standout work at Purdue. Selected at No. 9 in the 2024 draft, the hulking, throwback banger seems likely to start alongside Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and either Marcus Smart or Vince Williams Jr. as the Grizzlies try to reestablish themselves as a 50-win team.

Edey didn't play much for the Grizzlies summer league team in Las Vegas due to an ankle tweak, but he debuted with an eye-opening 14 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks against the Utah Jazz. His game-tying tip-in with 0.2 seconds left showed the value of his size and physicality.

If Edey can survive in pick-and-roll defense, bludgeon opponents on the offensive glass and set screens, he'll have a chance to replicate what former Memphis center Steven Adams did so well a couple of years ago. Better still, Edey can unleash Jackson as a roving power forward on D, a role he last handled in 2022-23 when he won Defensive Player of the Year.

On the other hand, if Edey proves his doubters right by struggling with the speed of the NBA game, Memphis will have to scour the bargain bin for a 5, just like it did last season.

Miami Heat: Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware makes it two rookie x-factors in row. If that seems a little excessive, just know that while Edey shone for Memphis in very limited summertime minutes, Ware extended his run over a much larger sample, earning first-team All-Summer League Honors after averaging 17.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.

He also posted a dunk-laden 66.7 effective field-goal percentage.

Ware, a 20-year-old big man with a high-revving motor, looked great in transition and as an attacking offensive force in the halfcourt. He doesn't space the floor yet, and it may be a while before he proves capable of defending against guards in switching situations, but he may not need those skills to make sense alongside Bam Adebayo in Miami's rotation.

A starting gig isn't a given, but Ware's athleticism and energy would greatly help a Heat team that doesn't get those qualities from many other sources. If Adebayo finally adds moderate-volume three-point shooting to his repertoire, Ware's fit will be even better.

Milwaukee Bucks: Gary Trent Jr.

An absolute heist of a free-agent signing, Gary Trent Jr. gives the Milwaukee Bucks a fifth starter at a 14th-man price. Wins in the financial ledger don't count like the ones earned on the floor, though. If Trent doesn't deliver for the contending Bucks in the highest-stakes scenario he's ever seen as a pro, nobody will remember what a bargain he was.

That'll start on defense, where Trent must prove he's more than an opportunistic passing-lane jumper. Steals are valuable, and Trent has produced in that area by averaging at least 1.0 theft per game in each of the last four seasons, peaking at 1.7 in 2021-22 with the Toronto Raptors.

Milwaukee will need him to bring more force than finesse, as Trent is in line to take on extremely difficult assignments every night. Khris Middleton is the Bucks' other starting wing, but he underwent dual ankle surgeries over the summer and has missed nearly half of his team's games over the last two years. Damian Lillard has never been even an average defender.

Often, it'll be Trent matched up against the opponent's highest-scoring wing or guard threat.

The Bucks are going to get elite shooting from their new starter, as Trent's career long-range hit-rate of 38.6 percent could actually climb with so many other threats drawing attention away from him.

We'll see how things go on the other end.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Rob Dillingham

The Minnesota Timberwolves won 56 games last year, topped the league in defense and have an ascendant Anthony Edwards ready to make himself a fixture in the MVP discussion. As such, they're pretty short on questions and uncertainty.

Except for the backup point guard spot, where it's more than fair to ask: Is Rob Dillingham ready for this?

Minnesota dealt away what little future draft equity it had to snag the Kentucky product at No. 8 in the 2024 draft, and its current depth chart suggests the rookie guard will have a significant role. If 36-year-old Mike Conley loses a step or goes down with injury, Dillingham might even find himself starting for a title contender as a teenager.

A brilliant scoring force in college, the sleight-of-frame guard has the quickness, craft and mentality of a quintessential sixth-man bucket-getter. More than likely, Dillingham is going to struggle on D, even with elite teammates all around him. Whether he can handle the organizational tasks of an NBA point guard remains to be seen.

Edwards could up his share of the playmaking, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker came into the league as something of a point guard prospect. The Wolves will have alternatives if Dillingham doesn't look seasoned enough for the role ahead of him. But if the rookie can juice up the second unit and spot start when required, the Wolves will be far better off for it.

New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Hawkins

Even as a rookie, Jordan Hawkins had the off-ball gravity to pull multiple defenders his way when setting a screen. Wisely, the New Orleans Pelicans often ran plays involving Hawkins as a ghost-screener for Zion Williamson, against whom miscommunication and blown switches always amount to instant pain.

That synergistic action between the Pels' best shooter and most dangerous downhill force could be devastating, as long as New Orleans figures out how to get Hawkins on the floor often enough.

The Pelicans added Dejounte Murray to a backcourt that already had CJ McCollum and Jose Alvarado, and the wing spots are a little congested with Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III all worthy of starter's minutes.

Consider this a plea for New Orleans to get Hawkins involved however possible.

Despite a tough shot diet of on-the-move threes, Hawkins hit 36.6 percent of his 9.2 three-point attempts per 36 minutes. That's serious volume, the kind that can bend a defense to the point of breaking. Unsurprisingly, Hawkins was automatic with his feet set, making 41.2 percent on wide-open looks.

If the Pels can feature Hawkins, and if he can sustain his per-minute rates in a larger role, the sky's the limit for this offense.

New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson

Mitchell Robinson might only be the New York Knicks' eighth-best player, but he's the non-star they can least afford to lose.

Isaiah Hartenstein is gone, snatched up by the Oklahoma City Thunder and a free-agent offer New York couldn't beat. That leaves Robinson as the Knicks' only proven conventional center, best rebounder and lone deterrent at the rim.

Sure, the Knicks can (and should) experiment with Julius Randle at the 5, and they can use OG Anunoby's granite-pillar frame against opposing bigs. But Robinson is going to take on outsized importance with Hartenstein gone.

Remember, New York has posted consistently poor effective field-goal percentages under Tom Thibodeau, making up for it with ridiculous offensive-rebound rates. Robinson is among the best offensive glass-crashers in the game (Hartenstein was excellent as well), and even a talent-infused version of the Knicks with Mikal Bridges and a healthy Julius Randle will probably still need those extra possessions to stick in the top 10 on offense.

Robinson, 26, has been injury-prone and not very scheme-versatile to this point in his career. He needs to play more than ever and also prove he can do more than wall off the rim on D if the Knicks are going to make good on their plans for contention.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams

Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein will give the Oklahoma City Thunder additional defense, rebounding and savvy, but they won't so easily address the other shortcoming that emerged in the 2024 postseason.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the league's top generators of offense, but Jalen Williams wasn't quite ready to fill the secondary playmaking role the Thunder needed against top defenses in high-stakes competition.

Based on his trajectory to this point, J-Dub is a good bet to get where he needs to be.

A fourth-place finisher in Most Improved Player voting last season, Williams averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds while posting an outrageous 54.0/42.7/81.4 shooting split. Those are borderline All-Star numbers as it is, but OKC now needs Williams to prove he can function as a singular driver of its attack—not just when SGA is off the floor, but also when opponents take him out of the game with aggressive pressure and double-teams.

With great size and an extremely balanced game, Williams is going to feature in the All-NBA discussion for years to come. Oklahoma City will gladly take that, but its immediate need is growth in the playmaking department from its second star.

Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac

Good defense generally requires a team effort, and the Orlando Magic ranked second in the league on that end last year because they trotted out multiple stoppers in most lineups. But Jonathan Isaac had one of the largest per-minute impacts on Orlando's area of greatest strength.

The Magic posted an 111.5 defensive rating in 2023-24, trailing only the Minnesota Timberwolves and their outlier figure of 108.9. Take Isaac off the floor, and Orlando's defensive rating was 113.4, which would have ranked 10th overall.

That may not seem like a massive difference; 10th is still solid enough to be a part of a contending profile...so long as the offense is roughly that good, too. That's just it for the Magic, though. They ranked 22nd in points per 100 possessions, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope isn't going to boost that number into the top 10 on his own.

Isaac averaged just 15.8 minutes across 58 games, which was a lot given a history that includes just one other season of at least 75 appearances. If he can stay healthy enough to play that much again, he'll make sure the Magic don't slip out of the top five on D.

Orlando's decision to extend him for five years and $84 million suggests there's optimism on that front.

Alternatively, another injury-hit campaign from Isaac could compromise Orlando's stopping power and make its ongoing struggles to score hurt even more.

Philadelphia 76ers: Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin is a bargain at four years and $35 million regardless of which version of the gritty combo forward shows up to join the Philadelphia 76ers.

But if it's the 2021-22 edition, or the one who was an indispensable piece of the Miami Heat's 2023 run to the Finals, the Sixers will have a surefire fifth closer in the fold for what they hope is their own deep playoff surge.

Martin's 2021-22 season, marked by predatory defense and a career-best 41.3 percent knockdown clip from long distance, put him on the map. Always a hard-hustling scrapper after going undrafted and struggling to carve out a role in the NBA, Martin is going to bring energy and toughness above all else. When his outside shot is also falling, he becomes something entirely different.

Just ask the Boston Celtics, who couldn't survive a seven-game Martin onslaught that included 19.3 points per game and 48.9 percent three-point shooting in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.

Martin wasn't his best self last season, as his overall shooting efficiency hit a three-year low. There's no guarantee he can rediscover his top form. If he can, Philadelphia will be dangerous for reasons other than its stars.

Phoenix Suns: Royce O'Neale

Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, who'll give the Phoenix Suns the actual point guards they never had last season, don't really qualify as x-factors. Both have basically been defined by their steadiness in the NBA, so the Suns know what they're getting from them.

Royce O'Neale is different, in that he's not only part of the team's potential closing lineup, but he's also the trade chip that might net Phoenix a difference-maker in trade.

O'Neale's four-year, $42 million contract is one of the Suns' most movable salaries. Hamstrung by the second apron and desperately short on assets to deal, Phoenix signed O'Neale at that somewhat inflated price at least in part because it can't take in more money than it sends out in any trade.

It's possible O'Neale will shoot and defend as well going forward as he did in 30 games for the Suns last season. He's not the typical x-factor with a wide range of potential performance levels. But he is something of a wild card, in that he can change Phoenix's fate in ways that go beyond what he does on the floor.

Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson

Like we said at outset, the ideal X-factor comes with variance, uncertainty and on the more positive side, potential. It's not ideal that the first two descriptors apply to Scoot Henderson as much as the third.

This isn't where the Portland Trail Blazers hoped they'd be a year after taking the point guard second in the 2023 draft—still excited about his prospects but certainly concerned about how poorly his rookie season looked from a statistical standpoint.

Henderson finished the year averaging 14.0 points and 5.4 assists but shot the ball as if points were awarded for bricks instead of makes. His 48.9 true shooting percentage was the worst in the league among the 116 players who attempted at least 700 shots.

In fairness to Henderson, an ankle injury cost him nearly three weeks right at the outset of his debut season, setting him back at a critical time. He also closed with an encouraging flourish, averaging 19.4 points and 9.7 assists while making 20 of his 48 three-point tries in April.

If the Blazers get that guy, they'll have no trouble continuing as if Henderson is the generational talent many expected. If they get the November-through-March Henderson who couldn't finish around the bucket and looked out of his depth everywhere else, well...they'd better hope Shaedon Sharpe is special.

Sacramento Kings: Keon Ellis

The Sacramento Kings certainly hope Keon Ellis shoots the rock like he did last year, when he canned 41.7 percent of his 2.9 triple tries per game. But what they really need from Ellis as they try to get back to the postseason level they set in 2022-23 is his weakness-masking defensive work.

Ellis scrapped his way out of the G League last season to start 21 games for the Kings, bringing a level of energetic hustle and defensive intensity they weren't getting from anybody else at the wing spot. As Sacramento heads into 2024-25, its roster is even more over-indexed on score-first players, and therefore even more in need of what Ellis can do on D.

De'Aaron Fox has the tools to be disruptive on defense, but he's too easy to screen and has more generally had such a large offensive load that asking him to also change the game on D feels like overkill. DeMar DeRozan has always graded out poorly as a defender, Malik Monk is out there to get buckets and Domantas Sabonis is one of the most easily attacked bigs in the game.

Ellis is only one guy, and he's a wiry 6'6" shooting guard. That means he can't compensate for all of those deficiencies by himself. But the Kings are going to need him on the court as often as possible so DeRozan and all the rest don't find themselves facing the toughest matchups.

San Antonio Spurs: Jeremy Sochan

Depending on how you categorize him, Jeremy Sochan is either an elite rebounder for a guard or a terrific facilitator for a forward. The confusion stems from the way the San Antonio Spurs used the (obviously) versatile guard-forward hybrid during his sophomore season.

Early on, the 6'9" Sochan was a de facto point guard who averaged 4.4 assists per game through November. After scrapping that plan, San Antonio moved Sochan back to his usual forward spot. He provided more scoring and rebounding in the ensuing months.

In all, Sochan put up 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists during his age-20 season, even tossing in a couple months (46.7 percent in November, 37.5 percent in January) of hot three-point shooting to raise the possibility that he could be much better than the 30.8 percent sniper he was on the season overall.

It's telling that, despite a shifting grasp of the role he should play, the Spurs still started Sochan in 73 of the 74 games in which he appeared. That's an endorsement of the value San Antonio believes he can bring—at whatever position he winds up playing.

Toronto Raptors: Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick's outside shooting prowess got him drafted in the lottery, but everyone whose opinion matters in the Toronto Raptors organization believes there's more to the 6'6" 20-year-old than a jumper.

Both head coach Darko Rajaković and general manager Bobby Webster put it on the record 10 months ago that they expect Dick to contribute as a pick-and-roll orchestrator and off-the-dribble playmaker.

As Dick's rookie season progressed, his shot fell with expected regularity. But he rarely got a chance to deliver on those other expectations. He averaged just 1.1 assists per game and was only utilized as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (to very poor effect) on 5.0 percent of his offensive plays.

Things looked different in Dick's two Summer League appearances, where he flashed a more well-rounded makeup. His first game featured 18 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. More importantly, he scored in a variety of ways and showed a real facility on the ball.

If Dick can carry that kind of performance over into the 2024-25 season, Toronto could routinely get real playmaking from every position but center. With Kelly Olynyk in certain lineups, all five Raptors would be capable of setting each other up. That could create unique chemistry and establish the kind of unselfish tone rebuilding teams crave.

Utah Jazz: Taylor Hendricks

Taylor Hendricks didn't deliver on the promise that got him drafted ninth last summer, but it would have been more shocking if he had. The 6'10" forward joined the Utah Jazz with unicorn billing. If everything broke right, he could become the rare three-and-D combo forward who could also protect the rim as a shot-blocker.

That was never going to happen in the 20-year-old's rookie season.

Now, ahead of his second year, Hendricks can build on the elite shot-blocking and solid rebounding he flashed upon getting into Utah's rotation after the All-Star break. That'll include adding volume to his average of 5.9 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, ideally while sustaining his 37.9 percent hit rate. It'll also mean settling in as a more consistent defender who understands schemes and doesn't find himself out of position so often.

The jury is still out on Utah's young prospects. Keyonte George, Walker Kessler and Hendricks have all shown potential but struggled with consistency. Hendricks, though, is the one with the most intriguing upside. If he taps into some of that this season, it could help the Jazz reorient their rebuild and fill out the roster accordingly.

Washington Wizards: Bilal Coulibaly

Bilal Coulibaly will play his entire second season as a 20-year-old, so anyone expecting a massive leap should keep that in mind. The 6'8" Frenchman is still one of the youngest players in the league and has miles to climb before he hits his peak.

Still, Coulibaly's great length, disruptive off-ball defense and flashes of jaw-dropping burst in transition were already on display last season. To those he must now add more reliable shooting, tighter ball security (1.7 assists to 1.4 turnovers per game as a rookie) and more developed finishing around the basket.

With Alex Sarr showing no signs of being a cornerstone before or after the Washington Wizards took him at No. 2 in the 2024 draft, Coulibaly remains the team's most promising prospect. A strong step forward this season would mean a ton for a Wizards club that might be earlier in its rebuilding process than any other team in the league.

The whole point of stripping down and starting over is to find a foundational piece around which to build. Coulibaly can change Washington's trajectory by looking like one of those this season.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.