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B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks: Win Totals

Adam Kramer

In a matter of weeks, expectations will pave way for results. At the moment, though, we have plenty to debate and discuss.

Oh, and there is money to be made.

As the college football season approaches, the opportunity to capitalize on the expectations of a given team—or teams—is here. More specifically, with an ocean of win totals to pick from, we have plenty of names to back or fade before the results come in.

Locks of the Week has returned just in time for college football. Last week, we picked a slew of potential dark-horse conference champions; this week, we're turning our focus to wins and losses.

Once the season begins, we'll have picks for every single week. In short, we have plenty of work still to do. For now, though, we've got plenty of opinions on plenty of teams.

For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.

Rutgers Over 6 Wins (-130)

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Let's begin with hope, and let's head to New Jersey to find it.

It feels almost poetic to begin our win total exploration with Rutgers. As the Big Ten evolves and expands, this is not a program many will cite first. But given what this team returns, it's a place we feel comfortable starting with.

Yes, it's Rutgers. There is no escaping that.

A punchline much of the time, the Scarlet Knights don't benefit from the new conference additions. For this specific season, though, there's at least some room for optimism.

Only two teams—Michigan and Penn State—ran for more yards than Rutgers last year. Running back Kyle Monangai is back along with almost the entire offensive line. The key will be transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis, who joined the program after playing with Minnesota last season. Kaliakmanis has been somewhat inconsistent, but he's athletic enough to find success in a good situation.

And this is just that, as strange as it might sound. Rutgers plays Howard and Akron to start before taking a fascinating road trip to Virginia Tech. From there, home games against Washington, Wisconsin, UCLA, Minnesota and Illinois all feel quite winnable.

On the road, Greg Schiano's team will also play at Nebraska and Michigan State. These are certainly winnable matchups, although they are by no means a given.

Will a few coin-flip games have to go your way? Indeed. But this is a sneaky-good football team with plenty of good pieces.

South Carolina Under 5.5 Wins (-105)

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In terms of schedules, they don't get much more unfavorable than this.

The Gamecocks open with Old Dominion, which should be a cozy way to get things started. After that, though, there are very few games that South Carolina will be favored in.

Sure, there are some easy ones. Akron, Wofford and Vanderbilt should give this team four wins, but are there two more victories to be found?

The road games include trips to Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson. There are home games against LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri.

This is, in a word, brutal.

Beyond the competition, South Carolina enters the season with questions across the depth chart. There are options at quarterback following the departure of Spencer Rattler, although they will have to play behind an offensive line that was both beat up and downright underwhelming last year.

There are bright spots, headlined by the electric Nyck Harbor. An elite athlete with rare speed, his development could help the offense grow a great deal. But the questions on this side of the ball are real.

The defense has its own set of questions after finishing No. 66 in scoring last year. There are some players in this group, headlined by linebacker Debo Williams.

Still, the talent this team will face in all areas on a week-to-week basis is likely to be too much. South Carolina isn't void of good players. There are some really nice pieces here.

But…that schedule. Woof.

Utah over 9.5 Wins (-145)

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Let's cut to the chase. If you're committing to betting this over, you're committing to Cam Rising.

Does that name ring a bell? It's been a minute since we've seen him.

Rising, Utah's star QB, missed all of last season after injuring his knee in the Rose Bowl the year prior. His status was a bit of a mystery for many months. Then, when it felt like he might return late in the year, the Utes closed the door on his return last fall.

He is now healthy again and thank goodness for that. In the team's spring game, he completed 15 of his 19 passes for two touchdowns.

Sure, it was a spring game. But for a player who has worked as hard as he has to return to the field, it was a tremendous sign.

As for the other pieces of the team, there are still plenty to like. The front seven on defense has been a strength in recent years, and nothing should change on that front with plenty of pieces back.

Stylistically, this is Utah football. Strong. Ugly. Unrelenting.

In the first year playing in the Big 12, that style should present a problem for many of the other programs. It doesn't hurt that the Utes' have a favorable road schedule, playing at Utah State, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Houston, Colorado and UCF.

At home, this team is a monster. It is a viable threat to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff. Anything short of double-digit wins would be a disappointment.

Wisconsin Under 7 Wins (-135)

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Given the consistency and quality of Wisconsin football over the past two decades, this win total jumps out.

Outside of 2020, which was a season shortened by COVID, the last time Wisconsin won less than seven games was 2001. It's been a while, to say the least, which makes this number that much more curious.

At the moment, though, the Badgers are a bit stuck. The new-look Big Ten will bring new challengers and long road trips. And as head coach Luke Fickell searches for consistency in his second season, it's safe to question whether it will simply take more time.

Maybe, just maybe, transfer QB Tyler Van Dyke will change that. It wasn't terribly long ago that he had NFL draft vibes. Now, he'll look to resurrect his career while also lifting an offense that really needs him. A healthy Chez Mellusi at running back could help.

But the path to eight wins will not come easy, even with the first two games featuring Western Michigan and South Dakota. A home game against Alabama and a road trip to USC come next.

Along the way, the Badgers will play at Rutgers, Iowa and Nebraska. None of these games are a given, and neither are home games against Penn State, Oregon and Minnesota.

The only positive is that Wisconsin won't play Ohio State during the regular season. Beyond that, with roster questions all over the place, it feels like we have more questions than answers.

Eight wins would be a massive success.

Other Win Totals I Like

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Miami Over 9 Wins (-125)

This is a bet on transfer quarterback Cam Ward, who has a chance to dazzle in the ACC. It's also a bet on roster talent coupled with a schedule that should produce a lot of wins, as long as the head coach doesn't get in the way.

UCLA Under 5 Wins (-125)

This season, UCLA will travel 22,048 miles. We could probably stop there, but let's provide some additional context. New head coach DeShaun Foster will have a roster ripe with holes, a schedule ripe with miles (and contenders) and an enormous challenge ahead.

Hawai'i Over 5 Wins (-130)

The bad news is that Hawai'i finished with only five wins last season. The good news is that this team won three of its final four games. For head coach Timmy Chang, with a largely manageable schedule, this feels like a bowl-eligibility year.

Duke Over 5.5 Wins (+140)

New head coach Manny Diaz knows defense, and he'll inherit a quality unit from a season ago. Throw in a schedule that starts with four very winnable games, and Duke should be in prime position to make a bowl game.

   

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