Anthony Edwards Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

2024 Paris Olympics: Ranking Team USA and Every Quarterfinals Men's Basketball Team

Andy Bailey

The group phase of the 2024 Olympic basketball tournament is in the rearview.

We're onto the knockout round, where Team USA is understandably favored to win, but there are some real threats to win gold who aren't representing the stars and stripes.

Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Greece and Serbia are the others still standing, and all of them are ranked below, based on the overall quality of their rosters (not necessarily their chances to win, which are heavily influenced by which side of the bracket they're on).

8. Brazil (+42000)

Bruno Caboclo and Georginho De Paula SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil even making the quarterfinals came as a bit of a surprise, and their run in Paris probably won't last too long. As the lowest seed in the field, they have the unfortunate task of facing Team USA next.

And if you want some idea of how big a mismatch that is, the Brazilians opened as 27.5-point underdogs against the favorite to win gold.

Still, it's been a solid showing for Brazil in France, where they got an 18-point win over Japan in group play and a star performance from Bruno Caboclo. In their lone victory, Caboclo went for 33 points and 17 rebounds.

7. Australia (+7500)

Dyson Daniels and Dante Exum Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Going 1-2 made Australia one of the tournament's disappointments in group play, given the amount of NBA talent on the roster.

Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Dante Exum, Josh Green, Joe Ingles and Jock Landale could all be in rotations next season. Given his experience, it wouldn't be surprising to see Patty Mills get a contract, too.

But even with all that talent, Australia struggled to generate enough offense to keep pace with Canada or beat a Greek team that often looks like a one-man show with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Still, this team has one of the international stage's better clutch shotmakers in Patty Mills and loads of perimeter defense from Daniels, Exum and Green.

If Giddey has a big game against the smaller Serbian guards who'll be defending him, the Australians might be able to pull off a first-round upset. They'd likely have Team USA waiting for them, at that point. And, well, it's hard to imagine their run lasting beyond them.

6. Greece (+7500)

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Vassilis Spanoulis Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Australia was favored to beat Greece in their group-closing matchup with Giannis' squad. They have more versatility and NBA-level talent. And they seemingly have enough lengthy defenders to at least bother Giannis.

But that game was a reminder of a basketball truism that can transcend the NBA and travel overseas. FIBA basketball often looks a bit more team-oriented than what NBA fans are used to, and having the best individual player doesn't necessarily make a team the favorite to win a given game. But when that player is as good as Giannis, stylistic differences don't matter as much.

Antetokounmpo averaged 27.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 33.3 minutes in group play, and he gives his country the chance to have any contest's best player against anyone, including Team USA.

There's a reason Greece went 1-2 in group play and finished 11th of 12 teams in points per game, though. Veterans Nick Calathes and Thomas Walkup have had their moments as playmakers in this tournament, but there's a dramatic dropoff in talent from Giannis to the rest of this roster.

It would take a superhuman effort from the two-time MVP to make a deep run from here.

5. France (+4600)

Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

The host country, France, may have the tournament's best 4-5 combo, or at least its most imposing on the defensive end.

Victor Wembanyama (7'4") and Rudy Gobert (7'1") are massive, but it's more than that. Both have great instincts as both rim protectors and rebounders. There's a reason they finished first and second in the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year voting.

France's problem is that the rest of the roster, particularly its lead playmakers, just haven't been able to generate consistent enough offense to look like a real threat to medal.

4. Germany (+850)

Dennis Schröder and Franz Wagner SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images

Outside of the Americans, no team is playing with the level of continuity and connectivity that Germany is. They went 3-0 in group play and trail only Team USA in total point differential. And they're getting bona fide star performances from both Franz Wagner and Dennis Schröder.

The former seems tailor-made for the international game, with his combination of size (6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan) and perimeter skill, and his numbers have reflected that. Through group play, he's put up 21.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks. And he's had some of the highlights of the tournament going to the rim.

Schröder, meanwhile, has long been one of the international game's slipperiest guards and can seemingly get by anyone. He put up 19.7 points and a whopping 9.0 assists in group play.

Add his play to Wagner's and timely contributions from Isaac Bonga, Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner, and it's easy to buy Germany as one of the few teams with an outside shot of beating Team USA.

3. Serbia (+3400)

Nikola Jokić and Bogdan Bogdanović OLIVER BUNIC/AFP via Getty Images

There's an argument to have Serbia behind Germany. The odds would certainly suggest these two should be flipped, but that may have as much to do with which sides of the bracket they're on as anything.

Serbia could potentially face Team USA in the semifinals. For Germany and Canada, a matchup with the Americans can only happen in the gold medal game.

On just the raw quality of their rosters, Serbia is one spot ahead of the Germans for a similar reason Greece is above Australia. The Serbs boast the best basketball player in the world in Nikola Jokić.

And when he's dealing, Jokić is capable of lifting just about any roster to the point necessary to compete with anyone.

The stat from their group-opening game against Team USA went viral shortly after Serbia's loss. It was 81-81 with the Americans in Jokić's minutes, and lost 29-3 for the rest of the game.

He's not the only Serbian player worth mentioning, though. Bogdan Bogdanović actually led the team in scoring in group play at 19.0 points per game. Vasilije Micić can have an impact as both a scorer and distributor. And several of their wings are exactly the kind of smart cutters who work well alongside Jokić.

2. Canada (+750)

RJ Barrett and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images

As previously mentioned, Germany has a higher point differential than Canada, but it did that against a group that includes Japan and Brazil.

Canada went undefeated in what everyone pretty much agreed was the "group of death" before the season started.

Despite having to play Spain (the No. 2 team in the world prior to this tournament), Australia's NBA talent-heavy roster and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece, Canada hasn't lost a game.

And, like Serbia and Greece, it has a superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who could emerge from any contest as its best player.

He's not alone, of course. The Canadians have loads of perimeter defense from Luguentz Dort, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dillon Brooks. Andrew Nembhard and Kelly Olynyk are both dynamic offensive players off the bench. RJ Barrett has looked like the kind of scorer many projected him to be coming out of Duke (he actually leads the team in scoring right now). And though he hasn't found a rhythm in his current role yet, there are plenty of high points from Jamal Murray's career to suggest he could make a difference soon.

1. United States (-550)

Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images

Team USA is so ridiculously loaded with talent that it was able to give DNP-CDs to Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Jrue Holiday and Tyrese Haliburton and still go undefeated in group play with the tournament's best point differential.

Its had different leading scorers in each of its three games (Kevin Durant, Bam Adebayo and Anthony Edwards). It has LeBron James dominating as a distributor and playing like he's five years younger. It probably has the best perimeter defense with Derrick White and Holiday. Anthony Davis has been a dominant rim protector.

With those contributions and plenty of others from around the roster, the Americans cruised through their first three games, despite Stephen Curry averaging 7.3 points and shooting 26.3 percent from the field.

This is, without question, the best roster in the tournament. That doesn't mean Team USA can't lose. The one-and-done nature of the Olympics and teams like Germany, Serbia and Canada will make the next week interesting, but the Americans should win.

   

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