Cam Rising Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Most Impactful X-Factors for the 2024 College Football Season

David Kenyon

While preseason projections are never perfect, rarely does a college football season go in a completely unforeseen direction.

But there are always a few topics we just can't predict.

As the 2024 campaign nears, we're diving into a handful of these uncertainties. Each one highlighted—for me, at least—could be meaningful enough to sway conference races and influence which programs end up securing a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The choices are subjective, then, but they're focused on teams expected to hold a Top 25 preseason ranking.

The Two-Minute Warning

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You know those nerve-wracking late-game moments? Well, some are bound to become more uncomfortable in 2024.

Back in April, the NCAA approved the addition of a two-minute warning in the second and fourth quarters. That stoppage is familiar to those who watch the NFL, and its value should not be underestimated.

First, it's a game-planning boost. "Win the last two minutes" is a popular phrase from players and coaches alike, and that applies to both halves—with the latter, naturally, taking the most attention. Coaches have another opportunity to make adjustments at critical moments.

Second, the two-minute warning is an extra stoppage for offenses to navigate when trying to burn the clock. Conversely, it can help a defense save additional time when it's desperately working to force a punt.

The outcome of several games—and likely some marquee tilts—will be directly influenced by the two-minute warning.

Group of Five's Increased Impact

Ashton Jeanty Loren Orr/Getty Images

Save for the shortened 2020 season when Cincinnati made the CFP, no Group of Five program has legitimately contend for a Playoff bid. While that caused a fair bit of frustration around the sport, the expanded CFP is guaranteed to include one G5 team.

The impact isn't limited to those G5 contenders, either.

Shocking late-season upsets routinely impacted the CFP rankings, and opportunities for underdogs are only rising.

Last year, for example, Army's takedown of then-unbeaten Air Force would've been massive news in early November. Instead, it was more of a "bummer for Air Force" kind of situation. Take the same matchup and place it in 2024, and the stakes—a trip to the Playoff—will be increasingly meaningful for both programs.

Access to the CFP is a great benefit for G5 teams, but, underdogs, your moment has also arrived.

Return of Injured Big 12 QBs

Jalon Daniels Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Kansas enjoyed a nine-win record in 2023, and an impressive detail is that backup quarterback Jason Bean led the Jayhawks for much of the year. Jalon Daniels only played in three games.

Utah managed an 8-5 finish without Cam Rising, although a rough second half in the Pac-12 left an unsatisfied feeling.

Daniels and Rising both should be ready for 2024, though.

Heading into the campaign, KU—which won't technically play at home because its stadium is undergoing construction—and Utah are viewed as high-end contenders in the Big 12. If both stay healthy, the teams may even square off during the conference title game.

But those perceptions are largely tied to the health of the QBs.

Defenses on Tier 2 SEC Teams

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At risk of offending several fan bases, let's be simple: Alabama and Texas both reached the College Football Playoff last season, and Georgia hasn't lost a regular-season game in three years.

They fit my definition of Tier 1 teams entering the year.

Behind them, however, the SEC is expected to have a few more CFP contenders. Ole Miss headlines that group with LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee in the conversation, depending on who you ask. They all have serious questions to address on defense, too.

Ole Miss survived a few high-scoring games in 2023 because of its offense, but that's a risky way to play. LSU flat-out stunk on defense—which is why Missouri, which lost Blake Baker to LSU, must adjust to a new coordinator. Oklahoma had an average unit at best and is set to face tougher competition in the SEC, and Tennessee has a revamped secondary in addition to other notable departures on defense.

Within that handful of teams, two or three likely will put together a quality year. That's going to have a clear impact on the CFP race.

Travel in the ACC, Big Ten

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Although realignment has affected each Power Five conference, travel has changed most in the ACC and Big Ten.

Exactly how meaningful will that be? How will that affect players over the course of the season?

We could discuss any number of things: body clocks, jet lag, routines and so on. That's not my area of expertise, but I'm confident enough to say that extensive travel—or the lack of it— will be a factor in 2024.

ACC teams Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina won't travel to the West Coast. On the other hand, Miami and NC State play at Cal as the final matchup of a stretch with games in six and eight straight weeks, respectively. Virginia Tech closes a sixth consecutive week during a trip to Stanford, which also hosts Louisville later in the season.

In the Big Ten, travel is a little more notable due to the greater volume of former Pac-12 teams.

Oregon, UCLA and Washington played a single contest east of Arizona/Utah in 2023, and USC ventured past Colorado only for a rivalry game against Notre Dame. This season, each one travels to Indiana/Michigan or beyond at least twice, let alone the "short" trips to Iowa, Minnesota or Nebraska.

Travel doesn't mean everything. It likely doesn't mean nothing, either.

   

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