UFC 304 goes down this Saturday in Manchester, England, and it looks like one of the best cards of the year so far on paper.
The card will be headlined by a welterweight title fight, with British champion Leon Edwards attempting to defend his belt against Belal Muhammad. It will be the pair's second go-round after an eye poke derailed their first fight in 2021.
There will also be a title on the line in the co-main event, with interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall taking on challenger Curtis Blaydes on home soil. Like the main event, this fight is also a rematch of an inconclusive fight, as Aspinall and Blaydes' first meeting ended in just 15 seconds after the former suffered a disastrous leg injury off a kick.
Before we get to the title fights, rising British star Paddy Pimblett will look to take another big step toward the top of the lightweight division, taking on popular veteran King Green — formerly Bobby Green.
The main card will be kicked off by a featherweight fight between Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze, and a middleweight scrap pitting Christian Leroy Duncan against Gregory Rodrigues.
As always, the B/R combat sports squad has got you covered for pre-fight predictions. Here's how we see Saturday's stacked main card playing out.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad II
Haris Kruskic: A reminder that this main card starts at 3 a.m. local time. Who knows what kooky things may happen?
I don't expect the kookiness will transpire in the main event though. As good as Belal Muhammad is, he's 36 years old. History tells us that's a bad age to enter a title fight.
Leon Edwards will like his chances against another wrestler given his successful takedown defense vs. Kamaru Usman in their trilogy fight. I'm just not sure Muhammad will show the champ anything he hasn't been successful against before.
Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: It's hard to disagree with Haris here. Muhammad is good, but it's doubtful he'll show Leon Edwards anything new — especially at 36. The champ has, after all, spent the last few years battling superior wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.
I'm expecting the challenger to spam takedowns from the early going, only to realize that Edwards is not a man who is easily pinned to the mat. From there, it's just a matter of time. Edwards lands at range and with counters, bloodies Muhammad up, and scores a late stoppage to defend his belt on home soil.
Prediction: Edwards by TKO, Rd. 4
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Feels like Muhammad has had this coming for a while and I'm glad he's getting it. But I can't stray from the ranks here because I agree with Tom and Harris that he doesn't have anything to win with. Edwards may not be the most charismatic or flashy champion, but he is damned good. And he'll show that with barely a blip while working his challenger during the 25 minutes.
Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes II
Haris Kruskic: This is a must-win fight for Tom Aspinall if he wants any hope of facing Jon Jones, and I think he'll do it dominantly.
Curtis Blaydes is and has been the best wrestler in the heavyweight division for years now, but he's prone to getting knocked out by powerful strikers. Aspinall is well-rounded enough to blast Blaydes with shots early, stuff the takedown, and finish it with ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Aspinall by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: At this point, I consider Tom Aspinall the man in the UFC heavyweight division. Jon Jones may still have the undisputed title, but all he has done in the weight class is choke out a woefully unprepared Ciryl Gane well over a year ago.
Aspinall, meanwhile, has been fighting and beating the division's best fighters regularly, and I think he'll add another valuable accomplishment to his resume this weekend.
Blaydes will press forward early in his quest for takedowns, only to run into an uppercut or a knee from the interim champ. My guess is it happens before the first round is up.
If that's how it happens, hopefully, the UFC has the sense to promote Aspinall to the undisputed champ.
Prediction: Aspinall by KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I hope more than anything that Dana White does follow through and match this one's winner with the winner of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. That'll be fun and I still think it'll be Jones with a hand raised when it's over.
But there's little for me to believe here outside of Aspinall landing something significant and getting Blaydes out of there quickly.
Prediction: Aspinall by KO, Rd. 1
Paddy Pimblett vs. King Green
Haris Kruskic: I really like both fighters and their personalities and am sad that one of them must lose.
While the knee-jerk reaction might be to go with Bobby Green, Paddy Pimblett's grappling might make the difference here. Green struggles outside the striking realm and it would be in Paddy's best interest to take 'King' down quickly. My semi-warm take is that Pimblett's ground game is his best asset and is highly underrated. I think we'll see him prove it and finally earn a ranking.
Prediction: Pimblett by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: You can count me among Paddy Pimblett's doubters. He's got a fun fighting style, and an interesting personality to keep us entertained when he's outside the Octagon, but in terms of actual ability, I don't think he's very impressive.
His grappling is good, but not mind-blowing, and his striking is unrefined. Sooner or later, he's going to get exposed, and I think there's a good chance it happens this weekend.
Bobby Green has proven he has power — most recently against Grant Dawson — and I think he'll use it to stop an oncoming Pimblett in his tracks sometime in this matchup. The Brit has pretty bad defense, it really shouldn't be that hard for somebody with good counters.
Green by TKO, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm a Pimblett guy. I don't think he'll end up in the Hall of Fame, but I do think he'll be a worthwhile fringe contender for at least the foreseeable future.
That's ground being staked out by Green for the moment, and I think the younger, fresher, more energetic guy gets it done in what may be the main show's most entertaining spectacle
Prediction: Pimblett by TKO, Rd. 2
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Haris Kruskic: Unsure what's going on behind the scenes but replacing Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape with this fight on the main card is a real head-scratcher. Regardless, Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues love to throw down. This should be an entertaining scrap.
I'm going with Leroy Duncan simply because he's less chinny than his opponent. Rodrigues historically doesn't withstand big shots as well.
Prediction: Leroy Duncan by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I'm also confused about why this fight was bumped to the main card at the expense of a much more relevant matchup in Kape vs. Mokaev, but it will be a fun one. Rodrigues and Leroy Duncan have 17 knockouts combined, so the odds are somebody is hitting the deck.
I appreciate what Haris is saying about Rodrigues' chin — it's a concern in a fight like this — but I still favor him based on his experience. He's been in there with tougher opposition, and if he fights smart, he should be able to win what's sure to be a thrilling firefight with his British opponent.
Prediction: Rodrigues by TKO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'll be honest, I could've done without this one being elevated to the main card. I'd have been fine keeping things as is or even moving Molly McCann up to get a shot alongside her buddy Pimblett.
But it is what it is, as the kids say, so we'll suggest that with little else to contrast the two guys it'll be the vibe of fighting at home that proves decisive.
Prediction: Duncan by unanimous decision
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Haris Kruskic: Arnold Allen's losses to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev are nothing to be concerned about. One could argue those are two of the three best featherweights in the world right now and Allen was still competitive in both fights.
There is reason to be concerned about Giga Chikadze though, who hasn't gotten his striking off as he would like to since the beating he took from Calvin Kattar two years ago. Allen is faster, younger and comfortable anywhere this fight may go. Look for 'Almighty' to get back on the winning side of things.
Prediction: Allen by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: Giga Chikadze showed a lot of upside earlier in his career and has treated us to some very exciting fights, but at this point, it seems pretty clear where his ceiling is. While he has the skills to dominate most guys on the fringes of the featherweight rankings, he's not quite on par with the division's best fighters.
Allen, despite recent losses to Max Holloway Movsar Evloev, remains one of the division's best fighters.
I see Allen trading with Chikadze just long enough to start setting up takedowns, and once he gets going with his grappling, he should be able to finish things off.
Prediction: Allen by TKO, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: The common opponent logic doesn't always work with combat sports, but the vast difference in each man's result against Calvin Kattar was too much to ignore. Chikadze was taken apart on the feet and the may while barely winning a second of a five-rounder while Allen won by a finish in two.
I think it transfers to a head-to-head matchup here and Allen is the guy in the winning side again.
Prediction: Allen by unanimous decision
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