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Olympics Predictions 2024: Projecting Final Medal Count from Paris

Jake Rill

No country won more medals at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics than the United States. Now, the Americans will look to make that the case again at the 2024 Games in Paris, which get underway this Friday.

This is the third time the Summer Olympics are being held in Paris, although it's been quite a while since the previous occurrence. The Games took place there in both 1900 and 1924.

With the Games nearly set to begin, here's a look at the countries that have been projected to earn the most medals in 2024. Then, we'll break down some of the top athletes from the nations expected to fare the best.

Medal Count Projections

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1. United States: 112 (39 golds, 32 silvers, 41 bronzes)

2. China: 86 (34 golds, 27 silvers, 25 bronzes)

3. Great Britain: 63 (17 golds, 20 silvers, 26 bronzes)

4. France: 60 (27 golds, 21 silvers, 12 bronzes)

5. Australia: 54 (15 golds, 23 silvers, 16 bronzes)

6. Japan: 47 (13 golds, 13 silvers, 21 bronzes)

7. Italy: 46 (11 golds, 19 silvers, 16 bronzes)

8. Germany: 35 (11 golds, 12 silvers, 12 bronzes)

9. Netherlands: 34 (16 golds, 10 silvers, eight bronzes)

10. Republic of Korea: 26 (nine golds, four silvers, 13 bronzes)

Via Nielsen's Gracenote

United States

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U.S. men's and women's basketball teams
The United States has dominated basketball at the Olympics in recent years, and that tradition could continue. The American men are looking for their fifth straight gold, while the women seek their eighth consecutive gold.

The men's squad is headlined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry and a host of NBA stars. The women's team features some of the WNBA's top talent, including Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Diana Taurasi and more.

Simone Biles, women's gymnastics
Biles won four golds and a bronze at the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. However, she didn't fare as well at the 2020 Tokyo Games, leaving with one silver and one bronze.

The 27-year-old appears poised for a bounce-back showing in Paris.

Caeleb Dressel, men's swimming
Dressel won his first two Olympic golds as a member of a U.S. relay team in 2016. He then captured five golds at the Tokyo Games, three as an individual and two via relays.

The 27-year-old may be the top men's swimmer to watch this year.

Katie Ledecky, women's swimming
Most Olympic viewers are familiar with the 27-year-old Ledecky, who has racked up seven golds and three silvers over the past three editions of the Games. Expect another strong showing this year in Paris.

China

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Sun Yingsha, women's table tennis
Yingsha won her first Olympic medals at the 2020 Tokyo Games, taking gold in the team competition and silver in singles. The 23-year-old is the current No. 1-ranked women's table tennis player in the world.

It's quite possible that Yingsha will win multiple golds at the same Olympics for the first time in Paris.

Quan Hongchan, women's diving
At the 2020 Tokyo Games, Hongchan won her first Olympic medal, taking gold in 10-meter platform. Now 17, she has only gotten better in the years since.

Hongchan has collected five golds at the world championships over the past three years, and she's poised for a stronger showing at the 2024 Games in Paris.

Zheng Haohao, women's skateboarding
Not only is Haohao making her Olympic debut, but the 11-year-old is the youngest athlete participating in the 2024 Games. She's also the youngest Chinese Olympian ever.

This will be the second straight Olympics featuring skateboarding, and it will be interesting to see how Haohao fares against older, more experienced competitors. She could be a surprise performer in the women's events.

Great Britain

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Tom Daley, men's diving
Daley entered the 2020 Tokyo Games as a two-time Olympic medalist, but he had never won better than a bronze. That changed at the last Olympics, as he took gold in the 10-meter synchronized platform event, while also winning bronze in the 10-meter platform.

The 30-year-old Daley has earned plenty of accolades throughout his diving career, and he could win another gold (or two) at the 2024 Paris Games.

Alex Yee, men's triathlon
Yee won his first two Olympic medals in Tokyo, taking gold as part of a mixed relay team and winning silver in the men's triathlon. Since then, the 26-year-old has impressed at events held all over the world.

At Paris, Yee should have another strong showing and may fare even better than last time.

Sky Brown, women's skateboarding
The 2020 Tokyo Games introduced skateboarding to Olympic competition, and Brown immediately had success. She took bronze in the women's park event, even though she was only 13 at the time.

Now 16, Brown has won gold in women's park twice at the X Games in California (2021 and 2022) and once at the world championships (2023). It wouldn't be a surprise if she won again at the 2024 Olympics.

   

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