Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Recent 1st-Round NFL Draft Picks with Most at Risk During Training Camps

Brent Sobleski

Once the luster wears off a first-round draft pick, an individual's situation can get hairy rather quickly. Today's NFL doesn't provide much in the way of patience. First-round picks have a tendency to be allotted more than most, though the length of an organization's leniency tends to lessen with each passing year.

This offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers traded Kenny Pickett, who they chose as the top quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft, and went in a completely different direction after only two seasons. Six different first-rounders from the '21 class are already with their second franchise, including Justin Fields, who the Chicago Bears traded to the Steelers. Sam Darnold may be the best example since he's now on his fourth team in six seasons after being the second overall pick in the '18 draft.

More recent draft picks are holding on for dear life attempting to stick with their current squads in hopes of finally realizing their full potential. Eight first-round draft picks from the previous three classes appear on the precipice of reaching the point of no return and need a strong training camp to really establish themselves as primary performers during the '24 campaign.


RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Of those listed, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has been the most productive and even made a Pro Bowl appearance (2021). But he's not the best runner for the Steelers' offense. Jaylen Warren is.

Harris ran for 1,000 yards in all three of his professional campaigns. Clearly, he's capable. However, today's game is built around creating chunk plays, either in the run or pass games.

With the Steelers trending toward a ground-and-pound attack—with the organization's heavy investments in the O-line, athletic quarterbacks and the hire of Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator—Warren has provided the same amount of runs (nine) of 20 or more yards as Harris over the last two seasons despite 301 fewer carries.

Obviously, the two can share a backfield and they will. Trends favor Warren, though.

Through the first seven weeks of last season, the former undrafted free agent averaged 10 touches per game. Over his final 11 appearance, that number rose to 13.5. Warren became a bigger threat in the receiving game, too. He finished second on the squad with 61 snags, while Harris' production in the pass game dropped to 29 receptions (after providing 74 as a rookie).

To top everything off, the Steelers didn't pick up Harris' fifth-year rookie option, thus making him a potential free agent after this season. It won't be the least bit surprising if/when Warren surpasses Harris as Pittsburgh's lead back.

WR Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

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In two seasons, Treylon Burks has provided very little to the Tennessee Titans' passing game. The Titans aren't exactly waiting for him to break through, either.

The organization made significant investments in wide receiver this offseason by signing veterans Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Ridley, in particular, comes in as the squad's new WR1 after signing a four-year, $92 million free-agent deal.

With DeAndre Hopkins already on the roster, Tennessee's top three targets are set. Burks' will still be given a chance to factor into the offense.

"He's gonna play everything… He's gonna play inside, he's gonna play outside, and he's gonna carve out a role for himself," head coach Brian Callahan told reporters earlier in the offseason.

The 18th overall pick from the 2022 draft dealt with injuries during his first two seasons. Turf toe and a sprained LCL limited his effectiveness, thus 49 combined receptions so far.

However, the Titans' current general manager or coaching staff didn't draft Burks. So, he has something to prove.

"I think Treylon has really grown up," Ran Carthon told reporters. "... He came in and he really took to heart the conversation that he had with myself and coach [Brian Callahan]. And he's completely bought in. ... And, again, we added Tyler, we added Calvin, obviously D-Hop was here. But for a young guy like that, he has vets that he can learn from."

OT Evan Neal, New York Giants

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Evan Neal's start to training camp is already worrisome since the New York Giants seem to be moving on from him as their starting right tackle.

Neal opened camp on the physically unable to perform list after having offseason ankle injury. While general manager Joe Schoen told reporters that the 2022 seventh overall draft pick is "day to day" and "not far" off from being fully healthy, the organization also made an important decision during Neal's absence.

The coaching staff chose to slide veteran Jermaine Eluemunor to right tackle despite being the team's left guard during the spring. Eluemunor is experienced, with 32 career starts at right tackle.

"I can't see any way Neal gets the starting job back," The Athletic's Dan Duggan tweeted.

So, the 6'7", 340-pound blocker may need a position switch to avoid becoming an outright first-round bust. He did begin his collegiate career as a left guard, with 13 starts for the Alabama Crimson Tide. A transition back inside makes the most sense to save his career with Big Blue.

The Giants will then have (from left to right) Andrew Thomas, Neal, Schmitz, Runyan and Eluemunor as their starting five. But it all depends on Neal staying healthy and successfully making a move to another spot.

OT Trevor Penning, New Orleans Saints

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The New Orleans Saints find themselves in a pinch. They're hoping for the best when it comes to offensive tackle Trevor Penning, but should prepare for the worst.

"There's too good of an athlete, too strong of a player … that he shouldn't end up developing into a good player," assistant general manager Jeff Ireland told reporters in January.

The quote almost comes across as pleading. No one has every denied Penning's natural abilities. He tested as the most athletic offensive tackle from the 2022 class, per Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte. He needed plenty of polishing entering the professional ranks, though.

"Penning has ideal size with high-level power, above-average athletic ability and the demeanor to be a quality starter right away," B/R scout Brandon Thorn wrote in Penning's draft report. "He can become an impact starter if he can learn to play with more discipline, consistent leverage and hand placement."

The final point is where Penning continues to struggle. His lack of technique and aggressiveness tend to be major weaknesses. He's already been removed from left tackle, with the intention of flipping him to right tackle this season—which says quite a bit since he'll be replaced by first-round rookie Taliese Fuaga, who was a collegiate right tackle.

Penning is only getting the opportunity because Ryan Ramczyk's career may come to an abrupt end due to a lingering knee issue. Ramczyk was one of the game's best right tackles. But he currently finds himself on the reserve physically unable to perform list, which ends any hope of 2024 contributions.

It now falls on Penning to secure the right side. He'll get his shot. Whether he'll become a reliable starter remains a massive question mark.

DL Mazi Smith, Dallas Cowboys

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Mazi Smith caught everyone's attention when he topped Bruce Feldman's 2022 list of outstanding athletes. His on-field performance never lived up to the hype, though.

In the annual piece, Feldman wrote:

The 6-foot-3, 337-pound senior has rare power and agility. So rare, in fact, it's hard to find the right superlative to begin with. But let's start with this: Smith does 22 reps on the bench press, but that's with 325 (not 225). He close-grip benched 550 pounds. He vertical-jumps 33 inches. He broad-jumped 9-4 1/2. Smith, who had 37 tackles last season, has clocked a 4.41 shuttle time, which would've tied the best by any defensive tackle at this year's NFL Scouting Combine, and it would've been better than any defensive tackle weighing 310 pounds or more in the past decade. His 6.95 3-cone time would've been by far the fastest among defensive tackles in Indianapolis. The fastest was 7.33. Smith's 60-yard shuttle time is 11.90.

Watching Smith actually play the game was a different experience. The interior defender often displayed poor pad level and was sluggish off the ball. That didn't change at the professional level.

Smith was a rookie, though. He learned the hard way that he can't simply throw around grown men, who are highly skilled blockers. As long as the defensive tackle works on his craft and improves his technique, those natural tools will then take eventually over. If not, his career won't last long no matter how much he can bench or how quick he is despite his girth.

Until Smith figures it out, the Cowboys need someone who's more stout along the defensive interior.

Edge Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals

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The Arizona Cardinals' Zaven Collins is highest-drafted player from the 2021 class, who's still with his original team yet didn't have his fifth-year rookie option picked up.

The Cardinals have had struggles figure out exactly how to use Collins after making him the 16th overall pick. Collins was a plus-sized off-ball linebacker, who thrives when playing downhill for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. His size, length and athletic profile portended a defender capable of being used in different fashions.

Like Isaiah Simmons, who never found his niche with the franchise, Collins hasn't quite fit anywhere on the defense.

Last season, head coach Jonathan Gannon and his staff decided to convert the off-ball linebacker to a full-time edge-rusher. The results were mixed.

"As a coach I absolutely love the guy, the player and the versatility he brings," defensive coordinator Nick Rawls told reporters.

The 25-year-old did play much better in the role, particularly when setting the edge and defending the run. But he's not much of a pass-rusher.

The Cardinals don't have a legitimate edge-rusher, who can win one-on-one matchups. Eventually, they'll need to acquire one. Considering Collins is on the last year of his current deal, he could very well be replaced if he doesn't show more in the meantime, especially with first-round rookie Darius Robinson looking for reps.

CB Kaiir Elam, Buffalo Bills

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The Buffalo Bills made significant roster moves this offseason, none more than among the secondary.

For years, the Bills fielded one of the league's best secondaries. But the previous group got older or injured. Buffalo tried to address it with the 2022 first-round selection of Kaiir Elam. He has yet to take on a full-time role with the unit.

Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are now gone. The latter two are safeties, but they were the backbone of the defense. Cornerback appears relatively set in the short term with Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford on the outside and Taron Johnson over the slot. Elam must now position himself to earn a bigger role.

"I think his mindset is where it needs to be," defensive coordinator Bobby Babich told reporters. "Coach (Joe) Dana and them are doing a good job of helping him hone in on the little things that we know he needs to improve,"

Johnson added, "The growth is everywhere. He's understanding the plays more and you see his technique getting better in a lot of different areas. It's just special to see."

Elam just turned 23, while entering his third season. From comparison, this year's top cornerback prospect, Quinyon Mitchell, is also 23. So, the room for growth in Elam's game is extensive. But the Bills' corner is currently roadblocked.

A team's fourth corner is important. As long as Elam stays healthy, he will see plenty of time on the field. Eventually, as a former first-round pick, he needs to show more, with next offseason being decision-time for the Bills regarding the corner's fifth-year rookie option.

S Lewis Cine, Minnesota Vikings

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Minnesota Vikings safety Lewis Cine is the least productive first-round pick from the 2022 NFL draft.

In two seasons, Cine has played in 10 games, with zero starts and a single, solitary tackle. He simply not done anything to crack the lineup.

"A big part of the explanation is obvious: Cine suffered a compound fracture of his left leg in Week 4 of his rookie season," ESPN's Kevin Seifert wrote. "He was cleared to return in time for training camp in 2023, but he could not find a role in new defensive coordinator Brian Flores' scheme.

"The realistic question facing Cine is not whether he'll elevate into a prominent role in his third season, but whether he will make the 53-man roster."

Cine was the first draft pick of Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who received plenty of flak at the time for trading down in the opening frame for what some deemed poor value. Cine has done nothing to help change the perception of that move.

Meanwhile, Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum are still on Minnesota's roster. Adofo-Mensah also drafted Jay Ward in this year's fourth round.

At Cine's best, he was a heatseeking missile for the Georgia Bulldogs' historic defense. A healthy season and growth in Flores' system will go a long way. However, the idea that he may already be on his way out isn't floated out there lightly.

   

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