Garrett Crochet is a starter who may only have so many starts left in him. Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Potential 2024 MLB Trade Deadline Busts to Avoid

Zachary D. Rymer

The MLB trade deadline is just a few days away. And judging from how many rumors are swirling around, a good number of stars could change places before Tuesday.

As usual, though, a "Buyer Beware" warning is necessary for some of them.

Let's pause to look at eight trade candidates who come with significant bust potential. They're certainly talented and their teams' asking prices surely reflect as much. But they also come with underlying warning signs, whether they're related to abilities, health or both.

Don't go into this list expecting to encounter so many pieces of low-hanging fruit. While there are fair doubts to express about, say, Jesús Luzardo or Michael Kopech, they and other guys don't really have peak value and, accordingly, come with relatively little risk.

Let's check off the guys who are on the list in ascending order of their value.

LHP Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins

Tanner Scott Rich Storry/Getty Images

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 42 G, 43.2 IP, 18 H (2 HR), 50 K, 25 BB, 1.24 ERA

Contract Status: $5.7 million salary, pending free agent

Short of flamethrowing Oakland Athletics All-Star Mason Miller, Tanner Scott is probably the most attractive relief pitcher on the summer market.

After posting a 2.31 ERA in a breakout 2023 season, the lefty has taken his run prevention excellence to another level by cutting another run off his ERA. He comes off as overpowering, as his fastball sits at 96.9 mph and batted balls off him average just 82.3 mph.

So, what's with the massive 1.74-run gap between his actual ERA and his expected ERA?

It has a lot to do with how watching Scott pitch is about as uncomfortable as facing him in the box. His strikeout and walk rates have both trended in the wrong direction in 2024, to a point where his K/BB ratio has been cut more than in half (2.0) relative to 2023 (4.3).

That Scott is "overpowering" is also somewhat theoretical. The whiff rate on his fastball has come down this year. And even if they've yet to do much damage, hitters have at least been getting under the ball when they put it in play against him.

A bad pitcher? Hardly. Just one whose price is likely a little inflated.

RHP Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays

Zach Eflin Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 18 GS, 104.1 IP, 109 H (13 HR), 83 K, 13 BB, 4.14 ERA

Contract Status: Year 2 of 3-year, $40 million deal

The Rays committed a franchise-record sum of money to Zach Eflin when they signed him, and it's fair to say it's been a good investment.

He finished sixth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2023, and his ERA for this season is still somewhat inflated by a couple of early-season duds. He boasts a 3.71 ERA in 15 starts dating back to April 15.

For the $11 million he's making this year, Eflin is basically a bargain. But what about the $18 million he stands to collect in 2024?

There's room for doubt there. The righty is past 30 now and signs of aging are there, including a 0.5 mph drop in his average sinker and a decline in his whiff rate from the 34th to the 15th percentile.

In the meantime, Tropicana Field is playing friendly to pitchers in 2024 and Eflin has been a notable beneficiary. In seven starts at home, he has a 2.25 ERA and a .594 OPS. In 11 starts on the road, he has 5.52 ERA and a .785 OPS.

Eflin is useful as an innings-eater who doesn't walk anyone, but teams in need of a top- or even mid-level starter should consider other options.

LHP Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Anderson Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Age: 34

2024 Stats: 20 GS, 123.2 IP, 94 H (14 HR), 89 K, 48 BB, 2.91 ERA

Contract Status: Year 2 of 3-year, $39 million deal

Tyler Anderson was a bust in his first year as an Angel in 2023, pitching only 141 innings and finishing with an ERA north of 5.00.

Well, now he's an All-Star with a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in the last three years. It's doubtful that any team sees him as a proper No. 1, but it's not like he's making No. 1 money. His deal pays him $13 million per year.

The real question, then, is if he's even a middle-of-the-rotation type.

The results say yes, but what's underneath them suggests he's not too different from the guy who had a rough go of things in '23. His K/BB ratio is almost exactly the same (1.86 vs. 1.85) and he's still averaging one home run allowed for every nine innings pitched.

The secret to Anderson's success has been stranding runners after he puts them on, as his 83.1 percent strand rate is fifth among qualified starters. That he's done so with the 12th-lowest strikeout rate with men on naturally raises suspicions.

Teams should also note Anderson is already trending the wrong way in this arena, posting just a 75.0 strand rate as he's pitched to a 3.71 ERA over his last eight starts.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Age: 34

2024 Stats: 18 GS, 106.0 IP, 84 H (14 HR), 104 K, 26 BB, 3.31 ERA

Contract Status: Year 2 of 2-year, $34 million deal, with 2025 vesting option

Nathan Eovaldi just keeps chugging along.

He's on his way to a fifth straight season with an ERA in the 3.00s and, even if it's not as zippy as it used to be, he can still chuck a fastball with the best of 'em. His average velocity is actually up from 95.1 mph in 2023 to 95.5 mph in 2024.

There are nonetheless built-in injury concerns with Eovaldi. He's had Tommy John surgery twice, and time spent on the injured list is now a sure thing for him in any given season.

As he doesn't quite strike out a batter per inning, Eovaldi still relies more on his defense than you'd expect for a guy who throws so hard. The good news is that he does so in a generally reliable way by inducing plenty of ground balls.

How well that skill will travel is nonetheless a fair question. The Rangers have been the best at turning ground balls into outs in 2024, to a point where Eovaldi is likely overperforming as a master of the ground ball out.

Eovaldi's 2025 option will vest if he pitches 50 more innings, in which case he'll be locked in for a $20 million salary. Given the circumstances, that should also weigh on teams.

RHP Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Jack Flaherty Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 18 GS, 106.2 IP, 83 H (15 HR), 133 K, 19 BB, 2.95 ERA

Contract Status: Year 1 of 1-year, $14 million deal

You have to hand it to the Tigers for taking a chance on Jack Flaherty, and naturally to Flaherty himself for making the most of it.

This is his best year since he surged to fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting back in 2019. In some ways, he's even better now. His K/BB ratio is notably an elite figure that ranks behind only George Kirby.

Teams shouldn't necessarily be looking at Flaherty as a No. 1, but he's potentially a No. 2 in a playoff rotation. And a solid one, at that.

But this is health permitting, and not just in the sense that good health tended to elude Flaherty between 2020 and 2023. The struggle is indeed ongoing, as he's recently needed several injections to alleviate pain in his lower back.

His results haven't really suffered, but his velocity has. Flaherty went into June averaging 93.8 mph on his fastball. He's been down to 93.1 mph since then, and hasn't even reached 93.0 mph in four of his seven starts.

None of this is ideal, and it should have teams worried if the end of the struggle isn't in sight.

3B/1B Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays

Isaac Paredes Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

Age: 25

2024 Stats: 98 G, 416 PA, 16 HR, 0 SB, .250 AVG, .353 OBP, .444 SLG

Contract Status: $3.4 million salary, arbitration-eligible through 2027

I was personally shocked to see Isaac Paredes in the No. 3 spot in the trade deadline big board that Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic put together.

But then, it makes some sense. He's a guy in his mid-20s who's hit at an All-Star level in each of the last two seasons, and getting him now would mean having him for three-and-a-half seasons before he's eligible for free agency.

Paredes is, however, kind of a weird hitter.

He has dramatically overperformed his expected results in each of the last three seasons, and how he's done it simultaneously explains a lot yet doesn't smell like a recipe for sustained success.

That Paredes comes with a low strikeout rate (81st percentile) and a high walk rate (91st percentile) is great, but he basically lives on home runs down the left field line. It's an effective trick, but shouldn't pitchers be able to adapt to it?

They might be already, as they're notably pitching Paredes away more in July. In the face of this, he's gone quite cold by way of a .136 batting average.

CF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox

Luis Robert Jr. Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Age: 26

2024 Stats: 50 G, 208 PA, 12 HR, 12 SB, .222 AVG, .293 OBP, .466 SLG

Contract Status: Year 5 of 6-year, $50 million deal, with 2026 and 2027 club options

The idea of Luis Robert Jr. is still as exciting as it's always been.

He'll only turn 27 on August 3, yet already among his accolades are an All-Star selection, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. Assuming he lives up to such things, he's worth more than the $15 million he's making this year and the $20 million he's due to earn in 2026 and 2027.

Still, let's not just ignore the gulf between the idea of Robert and the reality of Robert.

To the latter end, the 2023 season is the only time in which Robert has enjoyed a "full" season as a superstar-caliber player. And that one word must indeed be put in quotes, because even then he missed 17 games with various injuries.

Robert played in only seven games at the outset of 2024 before a hip injury promptly sidelined him for two months. And it hasn't been all good since his return. He's notably striking out a career-high 35.1 percent of the time, and this is the second year in a row he's had an especially hard time with sinkers and sliders.

It's safe to assume the White Sox won't move Robert for anything short of an arm and a leg, in which case the concern should be that he's merely a would-be star with a star price tag.

LHP Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox

Garrett Crochet Rich Storry/Getty Images

Age: 25

2024 Stats: 21 GS, 111.1 IP, 83 H (10 HR), 157 K, 25 BB, 3.07 ERA

Contract Status: $800,000 salary, arbitration-eligible through 2026

Sticking with the White Sox, it's hard to find fault with Garrett Crochet's pitching in 2024.

He's made the transition from relieving to starting look easy, racking up an American League-high 157 strikeouts and the lowest expected ERA of any qualified starter. His fastball and cutter are both among the best pitches in baseball.

It wouldn't be surprising if the White Sox got a better deal on Crochet than even the one they got on Dylan Cease. Which, as a reminder, brought back three top prospects, including promising righty Drew Thorpe.

But whereas the San Diego Padres made an obvious "for now" trade with Cease, a trade for Crochet could be more of a "maybe for later" deal.

Now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, the lefty is firmly in uncharted territory with his workload. With just three more innings, he'll be 60 innings above his previous career high from 2021.

The White Sox are already limiting Crochet's workload, and any team that deals for him would be wise to do so as well. To wit, ESPN's Alden Gonzalez raised the possibility that the Los Angeles Dodgers would only use Crochet as a multi-inning reliever.

A trade for Crochet therefore doesn't necessarily mean getting a full two-and-a-half years' worth of a No. 1 starter.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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