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Buy or Sell 2024 NBA Offseason's Riskiest Moves

Greg Swartz

We've seen a number of high-risk decisions from NBA teams this summer, whether it be through free agency, the draft or trades.

The Chicago Bulls are banking on Josh Giddey becoming a franchise point guard after giving up a big trade asset in Alex Caruso for him. The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves both made major gambles in the draft. It took a huge package of draft picks and players to land Mikal Bridges in New York with the Knicks, and the Philadelphia 76ers are hoping that Paul George can fight off Father Time after giving him over $200 million.

It's time to take a closer look at the NBA's riskiest moves this offseason and try to predict which ones will ultimately work out.

Timberwolves Invest Big in Rob Dillingham

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Rob Dillingham looked like a terrific pick at No. 8 overall by the San Antonio Spurs, giving the team another young guard to pair with Victor Wembanyama moving forward.

When it was announced that Dillingham would actually be moving to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the trade brought a fair amount of shock and questions surrounding what exactly the asset-strapped Wolves had to give up, especially for a team projected to be above the second luxury tax apron.

When the dust settled, Minnesota had not only agreed to give up its only tradeable future first-round pick (an unprotected 2031 selection) but also gave the Spurs the right to swap first-rounders in 2030 (top-one protected). According to ESPN's Bobby Marks, a first-year salary of $6.3 million for Dillingham also meant paying an additional $28 million in luxury taxes next season.

This means that Dillingham will cost the Wolves $34.3 million next season, or roughly what players like Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey will earn.

Minnesota's current tax bill has since ballooned to $105.6 million, bringing its total roster cost to over $311 million if no other moves are made.

Ignoring the financial ramifications for a minute, this was a smart team-building move for a Wolves team that wasn't going to be able to add significant talent through free agency and only entered the draft with the Nos. 27 and 37 overall picks.

Getting a player as talented as Dillingham to come in and learn behind an outstanding veteran like Mike Conley Jr. is an ideal situation. It would be fair to question Dillingham's fit on some rosters given his moderate size and defensive limitations, weaknesses that should now be negated playing on the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA last season.

Yes, the Wolves remain extremely limited on future moves they can make due to the amount of draft equity still owed from the Rudy Gobert and now Dillingham trades, but this is a championship-caliber roster that just got better in the short and long term.

The risk was high and the cost was steep, but this was a brilliant move by president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and his staff to keep this roster competing for titles even after Conley retires.

Buy or Sell: Buy. Dillingham will become a big part of the team's future.

Knicks Trade 6 First-Round Picks and Swaps for Mikal Bridges

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The last time we saw a team part with five first-round picks in a trade, the Los Angeles Clippers were acquiring a 29-year-old Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder and getting an agreement from a 28-year-old Kawhi Leonard to join them as a free agent.

Leonard was a few weeks removed from winning Finals MVP with the Toronto Raptors and had made three All-Star teams, won two Defensive Player of the Year awards and a pair of titles and Finals MVPs over the past six seasons. George was coming off a third-place MVP finish and five All-Star Games in his previous seven years, helping to justify the massive amount of draft capital the Clippers were giving up.

As good of a player as Mikal Bridges is, his career accomplishments don't exactly stack up to the two future Hall of Famers.

Bridges has yet to be named to an All-Star or All-NBA team and probably never will as long as he's playing in New York on a loaded Knicks squad. The price for Bridges was jaw-dropping, however:

From a value standpoint, Bridges is simply never going to be worth this.

His averages are going to look more like his days with the Phoenix Suns (14.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals during his last full season with the team) and New York didn't need another two-way threat on the wing with Josh Hart and OG Anunoby already coming back.

This was an A+++ trade for a team like the Nets, who knew Bridges was more valuable to the Knicks than any other franchise. It's also an A+ for New York in terms of fit given his connection to the players on the roster, yet could easily be a D in terms of value.

Consider this on the same level as the Rudy Gobert trade. Did the Minnesota Timberwolves give up too much? Absolutely. Did the trade make them better and ultimately take the franchise to a new level? Again, yes.

The Knicks are going to be one of the elite teams in the NBA now with Bridges, even if they gave up way too much.

Buy or Sell: Selling Bridges being worth this kind of package, but buying that the Knicks won't regret it.

Grizzlies Draft Zach Edey at No. 9 Overall

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Zach Edey was one of the most polarizing players coming into the draft, although only three of the 10 mock drafts in the NBA.com consensus mock had Edey going in the lottery, and none projected the former Purdue star to be selected higher than No. 12 overall.

This is why it was so surprising to see the Memphis Grizzlies take Edey at No. 9 overall, a pick that Krysten Peek of Yahoo Sports called "one of the worst picks I've seen in draft history."

While a trade up for UConn's Donovan Clingan would have been the ideal outcome for the center-needy Grizzlies, Edey is a strong fit for a win-now Memphis team.

At 22, Edey had plenty of seasoning in college, including 138 games and a run to the NCAA championship this past season. The Grizzlies don't need Edey to develop into an All-Star. All they need is for him to serve in the same role that former center Steven Adams did.

Adams was a big-bodied center who had the responsibility of grabbing rebounds, playing defense and setting strong screens for Ja Morant. This team has enough offensive threats with Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others. Edey should feast on offensive rebound opportunities and is a wide target to dump the ball down to.

At 7'4" and 285 pounds, Edey is going to be a massive force in the middle for Memphis and should carve out a long career as a solid starter who can take more chances on defense now that he doesn't have to worry about his team collapsing should he get into foul trouble.

Could the Grizzlies have traded back and still selected Edey 5-10 spots later? Probably.

That shouldn't change the fact that he's a really good fit here and should be valuable in an Adams-like role.

Buy or Sell: Buy Edey being a good fit in Memphis, even if he went earlier than expected.

Bulls Trade for Josh Giddey

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The Josh Giddey-Alex Caruso swap kicked off the NBA summer, although most were surprised that the Chicago Bulls didn't get any draft selections from the pick-rich Oklahoma City Thunder.

Swooning over the Caruso fit in OKC is expected. Questioning the timing of the Caruso trade (now with just one year left on his deal) is fair as well.

When we look back at this trade in a few years, however, Giddey's play with the Bulls is going to be far more impactful than Caruso's with the Thunder.

Giddey, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 draft, is still just 21 years old despite entering his fourth NBA season. He's a pure point guard and one of the best passers in the league, yet he hasn't always had the opportunity to showcase this playing next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Putting Giddey on the ball more with shooters spread out around him will unlock his massive potential. Much like we saw with Lauri Markkanen evolving after a trade to the rebuilding Utah Jazz following a summer spent with the Finnish national team, Giddey is now thriving with the Australians in the Olympics and will receive a much bigger role on a young Bulls squad.

At 6'8" with 6'5" Coby White starting next to him in the backcourt, Chicago has a huge guard combo to build around. Big, athletic forwards like Patrick Williams and Matas Buzelis should feast off Giddey passes just by moving without the ball and looking for cutting opportunities.

The Giddey era in Oklahoma City didn't end well, as his role was reduced as the team added talent and Gilgeous-Alexander developed into an MVP candidate.

A fresh start in Chicago will do wonders for the young point guard, as Giddey now gets to play his natural position without the pressure to win a title right away.

This is truly going to be considered a win-win trade for both franchises, with Giddey eventually making an All-Star team with the Bulls.

Buy or Sell: Buy Giddey thriving in Chicago.

76ers Give Paul George 4-Year, $212 Million Contract

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Right now, Paul George is the shiny new car that Philadelphia 76ers fans can all feel excited about.

As soon as he pulls out of the dealership, however, his value is only going to go down.

George, 34, will be tied for the sixth-highest-paid player in the NBA this season. Four of the five players ranked ahead of him have won MVP or Finals MVP or both at some point in their careers, a list that includes Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokić, Kevin Durant and new teammate Joel Embiid.

George is still an All-Star-caliber player, although his raw numbers will plummet now as a third option next to Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. There's a real chance we view him more in a Bradley Beal light moving forward, someone who's still putting up 18 points per game on good efficiency but is wildly overpaid in their current role.

Overpaying George, including giving him a fourth year, was likely the only way to get him out of Los Angeles, although this is a contract that isn't going to age well.

George had averaged just 47.3 games in his first four years with the Clippers and missed five playoff games due to injury as well. Now in his mid-30s, George isn't going to suddenly become more durable, and there's a real chance we see Maxey as the only healthy star left standing come playoff time.

Unlike with Beal, the Sixers didn't have to give up anything to acquire George, although this contract will soon look like one of the worst in the NBA.

Buy or Sell: Sell this ending well for the 76ers.

   

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