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Start, Bench or G-League? Predictions for Every 2024 First-Round Pick

Jonathan Wasserman

While the 2024 NBA draft class wasn't known for star power, it could quickly look deep.

Only a select few may begin their careers in starting lineups, but even most picks in the 20s look like good bets to crack their rotations.

The majority will still come off the bench and provide specialty skills or traits. Some will spend most of the season in the G League, whether due to their team's rotation or a need to build up their confidence, bodies or skill levels.

Here, we've predicted how each 2024 first-round pick will spend the majority of his rookie season: as a starter, bench player or G Leaguer.

No. 1 Pick: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks

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Role: Starter

Usage type: Spot-up scorer

It's reasonable to expect the Atlanta Hawks will start the player they just took No. 1 overall.

Trading Dejoute Murray for 21-year-old Dyson Daniels and draft picks also suggests there isn't as much pressure to win now as it once seemed. The Hawks figure to give Zaccharie Risacher a longer runway to play through mistakes and develop. But he's also coming off an efficient year starting in LNB Pro A, and his athleticism, shotmaking and defensive tools suggest he should already be ready for a three-and-D role in Atlanta.

It does seem like Risacher is in a good spot, where he can rely on Trae Young and Jalen Johnson for creation, playmaking and gravity. The 19-year-old figures to spend most of his time scoring in transition and spotting up, similar to what he did with JL Bourg.

Improving his handle and self-creation will be longer-term goals. In the meantime, Risacher will make the biggest impact as a rookie with his athleticism on the open floor, capitalizing on space, shooting and perimeter shot contesting.

No. 2 Pick: Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards

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Role: Starter

Usage type: On/off ball big, defensive playmaker

Landing with the Washington Wizards comes with pros and cons for Alex Sarr.

There is nobody on the depth chart standing in his way of starts or minutes. He'll also have every opportunity to play through mistakes for a rebuilding team that has zero expectations in terms of winning.

While Sarr's role won't be as creation-heavy as it's been in summer league, he should still have regular chances to experiment with putting the ball down, posting up or shooting off the dribble.

The obvious negative for Sarr in Washington is the lack of surrounding talent or playmakers to take pressure away and make the game easier. The highlights he'll generate at both ends should keep fans patient and their excitement alive, but he could be in for an inefficient season offensively, especially if Jonas Valanciunas starts and Sarr plays the 4.

No. 3 Pick: Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets

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Role: Bench

Usage type: Combo scorer/shooter

The third pick in the draft had no trouble coming off the bench for Kentucky. The Houston Rockets figure to use Reed Sheppard similarly behind Jalen Green.

With the second unit, Sheppard will help Amen Thompson with spacing for his ball-handling. And Thompson will be able to defend opponents' bigger guards who could give 6'2" Sheppard trouble.

The rookie finds himself in a favorable situation, likely playing against second units alongside a special athlete and creator.

However, it doesn't seem out of the question that Houston could consider promoting Sheppard if the starters need more scoring efficiency and off-ball offense around Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun.

No. 4 Pick: Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs

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Role: Bench

Usage type: Swiss Army Knife

The addition of Harrison Barnes presumably pushes Devin Vassell to shooting guard and forces Stephon Castle to come off the bench. The No. 4 pick is still poised to play a significant rookie role, given his importance to San Antonio's rebuild and the versatility he possesses to play different roles and positions, which will maximize his chances to play.

The purpose of signing Chris Paul was to make the game easier for Victor Wembanyama. However, at 39 years old, he's bound to miss games and see reduced minutes. Castle should have opportunities to experiment running offense and facilitating, which are big selling points to the 6'6", 215-pound guard who's played the point and operated in ball-screen situations since high school.

Otherwise, Castle figures to earn coach Gregg Popovich's trust with his defense, toughness/physicality and passing.

No. 5 Pick: Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons

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Role: Bench

Usage type: Energizer/transition specialist

The purpose of signing Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley was to make the game easier for Cade Cunningham and allow other young prospects to play more to their strengths.

It will mean fewer chances to start for Ron Holland. Instead, he'll be used for his athleticism and motor off the bench. His playing with the second unit could allow for more on-ball opportunities to make plays in the half court.

Harris, Hardaway Jr. and Beasley are ultimately short-term place-holders to add shotmaking, gravity and professionalism/experience to Detroit's rotation. Holland is the future—it just sounds like the front office prefers to be patient and take it slower, also to allow older prospects like Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey to take needed steps first.

No. 6 Pick: Tidjane Salaun, Charlotte Hornets

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Role: Bench

Usage: Three-and-D

Still 18 years old, Tidjane Salaun figures to fall behind Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams and Josh Green in Charlotte's pecking order.

The Hornets will simplify his role, likely creating the same one he played for Cholet when he hit mostly shot spot-up threes, ran the floor and finished plays around the basket.

Salaun's athleticism, defensive activity and streak shotmaking should work well off the bench. His lack of polish with the ball and likely inconsistent shooting may make him tough to start.

No. 7 Pick: Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

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Role: Bench

Usage: Backup rim protector

Donovan Clingan will come off the bench with Deandre Ayton making $34 million and providing far more offense.

Portland clearly took him as a best player available option at No. 7, with the idea the team could eventually turn the starting position over to a 280-pound rim protector valued most for interior and pick-and-roll defense.

Promoting Clingan could happen sooner than expected if the Blazers struggle to win games or get any stops. The team is currently stuck between rebuilding around young guards/wings and trying to compete with a veteran frontcourt. Once it becomes obvious that this roster isn't built for the playoffs anytime soon, Portland could turn to Clingan and start playing for Cooper Flagg and the 2025 lottery.

No. 8 Pick: Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves

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Role: Bench

Usage: Scoring spark

The Minnesota Timberwolves trading up for Rob Dillingham should allow the rookie to play a bench-scoring role that his game is currently suited for.

Coming off the bench diminishes the importance of him tightening his shot selection and playmaking for teammates. The Wolves will value his self-creation and shotmaking to keep pressure on opponents when Anthony Edwards rests or the team needs Dillingham's firepower over Mike Conley's defense.

With Conley turning 37 before the season, and Minnesota's lacking point guard depth, Dillingham should still receive some valuable experience right away as a lead ball-handler.

No. 9 Pick: Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies

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Role: Starter

Usage: Interior scorer/rim protector

The big question when projecting Zach Edey's role asks whether the Memphis Grizzlies will slide Jaren Jackson Jr. back to a forward position.

After taking the 7'4" 22-year-old at No. 9, the team must have some confidence that Edey and Jackson will work together.

Despite Edey's older-school style and athletic flaws, he'll give the Grizzlies frontcourt a unique look that opposing centers won't be used to playing against. He's the only 300-pound player in the NBA, but he's also improved his mobility and developed a very reliable jump hook.

Regardless, Memphis will mostly value his play-finishing, rebounding and defensive presence that could alter opposing drivers' decisions.

No. 10 Pick: Cody Williams, Utah Jazz

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Role: Bench

Usage: Off-ball scorer

A potential Lauri Markkanen trade creates some unpredictability around the Utah Jazz roster. At the moment, Cody Williams appears to be a second-unit option with Taylor Hendricks presumably ahead on the depth chart.

The rookie should still have a good chance of being part of Utah's rotation based on how efficiently he finishes plays and his advantageous defensive tools on the wing.

He struggled from three in summer league, and it wouldn't be surprising to learn that his 41.5 percent mark at Colorado was somewhat fluky. But with the ability to initiate fast breaks, slash and finish using signature length/touch, cut for easy baskets, make just enough open shots and guard opposing wings, Williams should still be able to impact games in various ways on low usage.

No. 11 Pick: Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls

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Role: Starter

Usage: Second-unit scorer

Projecting Matas Buzelis' rookie role means predicting whether the Chicago Bulls can trade Zach LaVine.

At this stage, it may make more sense for Chicago to get 50 cents on the dollar in a LaVine trade and start prioritizing the No. 11 pick who's been a standout in summer league.

Buzelis would receive a balanced mix of looks playing on and off the ball between Coby White and Patrick Williams. He's currently best handling the ball in the open floor, though he's flashed glimpses of half-court shotmaking diversity, and he'll remain a threat to hit spot-up threes and finish plays off of cuts.

LaVine staying means he'd likely play small forward with Josh Giddey coming in and pushing White to the 2. As impressive as the rookie has looked in Las Vegas, Buzelis won't earn starts over newly re-signed Patrick Williams at the 4.

No. 12 Pick: Nikola Topic, Oklahoma City Thunder

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Role: G League

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't have much use for Nikola Topic during their quest for a 2025 NBA championship.

He's still 18 years old, coming off an ACL injury and playing less than 650 minutes last year overseas. Topic figures to spend the year recovering, while Cason Wallace likely sees his role rise.

Topic ironically shares similar strengths and weaknesses as Josh Giddey, who the team traded for defensive ace Alex Caruso. The eventual draw to Topic stems from his rim pressure and playmaking for a 6'6" ball-handler. But taking him at No. 12 was likely about drafting the best player available long term, and not about finding an immediate fix or addition.

No. 13 Pick: Devin Carter, Sacramento Kings

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Role: G league/Bench

Usage: Defensive/toughness specialist

Missing six months to shoulder surgery could mean Devin Carter returns to the floor in January. With no offseason, summer league or preseason, it seems likely he'll ramp up his reps and confidence in the G League before joining the Sacramento Kings.

Had he been healthy, he would have likely been an immediate rotation player. Carter's defense and unique rebounding would have earned him minutes right away.

No. 14 Pick: Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards

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Role: Bench

Usage: Combo guard

The Washington Wizards likely have high hopes for Bub Carrington long term after moving up to No. 14 to get him.

Still, he just turned 19 this week and shot just 32.9 percent in summer league. Washington will presumably want a veteran running offense, especially with Alex Sarr the team's primary priority. Even with the possibility that Tyus Jones signs elsewhere, the Wizards added Malcolm Brogdon to bring the lineup an experienced, mature decision-maker.

The hope long term will be for Carrington to gradually morph into a lead ball-handler. In the meantime, he'll play on and off the ball with Washington's second unit, providing both shotmaking and playmaking.

No. 15 Pick: Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat

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Role: Bench

Usage: Backup big

Unless the Miami Heat want to play big and slide Bam Adebayo to power forward, Kel'el Ware will have to come off the bench. Still, his performance in summer league could earn him early looks from coach Erik Spoelstra.

There was a big difference watching Ware at Indiana, where the guard play was suspect, versus watching the athletic 7-footer run with playmakers Alondes Williams and Isaiah Stevens in July.

His outstanding tools and verticality for finishing should come alive alongside NBA-caliber creators and passers. And the more minutes he gets, the earlier his shotmaking confidence should build. Miami will initially just value the easy baskets and rim protection, but eventually, Ware seems poised to emerge as a shooting threat and scoring option from the post.

No. 16 Pick: Jared Mccain, Philadelphia 76ers

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Role: Bench

Usage: Shotmaker, secondary creator

The Philadelphia 76ers will use Jared McCain for depth and shotmaking off the bench.

Paul George's arrival and Kelly Oubre's return will cut into the rookie's opportunities. At certain points of games of the season, McCain's shooting could be valued, filling in the gaps between the Sixers' three high-level creators in George, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid.

Philadelphia could also use the rookie's ball-handling on the floor when Maxey sits. There is plenty of creation skill in McCain's game, especially in ball-screen situations using change of speed, pacing, craftiness and touch.

No. 17 Pick: Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers

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Role: Bench

Usage: Shotmaker, second-unit scorer

The Los Angeles Lakers' depth and bench aren't notable strengths. Coach JJ Reddick figures to call on Dalton Knecht for second-unit scoring and shotmaking right away.

Being 23 years old surely had something to do with his draft-night slide to No. 17. The NBA-ready tag is a plus for the Lakers. He's one of the class' more polished offensive players with an adaptable offensive skill set. He should get some time playing off LeBron James and Anthony Davis with his spot-up and movement shooting and cutting. But he also has enough on-ball game to make things happen himself with more usage for the Lakers' second unit.

No. 18 Pick: Tristan Da Silva, Orlando Magic

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Role: Bench

Usage: Third-string shooting

The Orlando Magic have become too deep for rookies to earn regular minutes. Tristan da Silva cracking the rotation will mean convincing the coaching staff that his shooting is more valuable to the rotation than Anthony Black's passing and defense.

Da Silva does have a plug-and-play game with a projectable jump shot, high IQ and overall sharp skill level. He should be able to slide right in, stretch the floor, hit open threes and make good decisions against closing defenders.

It seems reasonable to expect we'll see da Silva during an 82-game season. Just not right away.

No. 19 Pick: Ja'Kobe Walter, Toronto Raptors

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Role: Bench

Usage: Three-and-D

Gary Trent Jr.'s departure should create an opportunity for Ja'Kobe Walter.

He's a tough shotmaker but inconsistent shooter, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Toronto Raptors went stretches playing Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown extended minutes, limiting the rookie.

Early on, Walter's value to Toronto will be heavily tied to his jump shot and defensive tools. He'll be a threat to knock down spot-up, movement and pull-up threes. And he does an admirable job attacking in straight lines and drawing fouls.

Without much creation in his ball-handling bag, and a three-point percentage that's known to spike and dip, Walter's minutes and impact figure to fluctuate greatly early on.

No. 20 Pick: Jaylon Tyson, Cleveland Cavaliers

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Role: Bench

Usage: Wing creator

Even with an established second unit of veteran forwards, the Cleveland Cavaliers' coaches may have a tough time resisting Jaylon Tyson's creation, shotmaking and playmaking.

He was highly effective in an on-ball role during summer league, where he averaged 15.4 points and 4.4 assists on 58.8 percent shooting. At 6'6", 215 pounds, Tyson flew up draft boards with his ability to use ball-handling, change of pace, footwork, pull-ups and floaters and live-dribble passing to generate offense for himself and teammates.

The potential departure of free agent Isaac Okoro could also lead to more opportunities for the rookie.

No. 21 Pick: Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans

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Role: Starter

Usage: Finisher/rim protector

Yves Missi will be one of the few rookies that has a good chance to start with the New Orleans Pelicans light on centers.

He should have a simplified offensive role playing to his athletic strengths as a rim runner, rolling big, finisher and putback threat.

Missi's value will show mostly on defense, where he shines sliding in space, preventing guards from turning the corner.

He figures to split time with Daniel Theis, but Missi should give the lineup more life and activity with his physical tools, verticality and ground/air-space coverage.

No. 22 Pick: Daron Holmes, Denver Nuggets

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Role: Injured

An Achilles injury suffered during DaRon Holmes' summer league debut will push back his pro day debut to 2025.

This season will be all about recovery for the big man with dangerous athleticism around the rim and expanding scoring ability.

Holmes will eventually give the Denver Nuggets a different look behind Nikola Jokic with his easy-basket leaping off transition and pick-and-rolls. It's that newly added three-ball and face-up flashes that hint at upside.

No. 23 Pick: AJ Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks

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Role: G League

AJ Johnson played just 8.3 minutes per game in Australia. He's 19 years old and 167 pounds. The Milwaukee Bucks didn't draft him to strengthen their 2025 NBA title chances.

He showcased some exciting creation, shotmaking, athleticism and playmaking at the NBA combine and during summer league. It's easy to picture a scoring combo guard based on the highlights and flashes.

Given his frame, shot selection and overall decision-making, Johnson just isn't ready to execute consistently enough against NBA defenses for a team under pressure to get back to the Eastern Conference Finals.

No. 24 Pick: Kyshawn George, Washington Wizards

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Role: Bench

Usage: Shooter

Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma and Bilal Coulibaly rank ahead of Kyshawn George on the Washington Wizards' depth chart. But at some point of the year, the Wizards will want to prioritize George's development and find minutes for their third first-round pick.

George offers both shooting and secondary ball-handling, but the shot figures to translate before his creation or playmaking. While he can struggle to blow by or finish inside the arc, at 6'7", he has positional size and a three-point stroke that's carried right over to summer league from Miami.

His usage will consist of spot-ups and the occasional opportunity to initiate a fast break or handle in a pick-and-roll situation.

No. 25 Pick: Pacome Dadiet, New York Knicks

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Role: G League

The New York Knicks are too deep and competitive for 18-year-old Pacome Dadiet to earn minutes.

He'll spend the year in the G League, continuing to strengthen his confidence from behind the arc and with the ball.

Realistically, his eventual role for the Knicks will call for wing defense and off-ball scoring with his shooting, cutting and transition play. But at this point, Dadiet doesn't feel like a consistent enough shotmaker or effective ball-handler.

No. 26 Pick: Dillon Jones, Oklahoma City Thunder

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Role: Bench/G League

Usage: Swiss Army Knife

The Oklahoma CIty Thunder's rotation may be too deep for Dillon Jones, particularly after it added Alex Caruso.

He does offer a unique package of offense with his ball-handling for creation and playmaking at 6'6", 240 pounds. Like most Thunder guards and wings, he can be moved around positionally, which should maximize his chances of seeing the floor at some point.

Still, becoming a regular shooting threat remains the priority for Jones, who figures to spend time in the G League approaching triple-doubles with his driving, passing and rebounding.

No. 27 Pick: Terrence Shannon Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves

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Role: Bench

Usage: Scoring/athletic specialist

Turning 24 years old next week, Terrence Shannon Jr. should have a chance to jump in front of Leonard Miller and Josh Minott. And despite the recent signing of Joe Ingles, the Wolves should find more value in Shannon's speed, rim pressure and defensive quickness.

In a bench role, his shotmaking potency should outweigh the streaky shooting.

Shannon's job and role will be to inject the lineup with athletic and scoring firepower.

No. 28 Pick: Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns

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Role: G League

As exciting as Ryan Dunn could be making plays on defense, his offense feels too far behind to justify rookie minutes.

He should spend the year in the G League getting up shots and building some confidence shooting threes.

He'll always be valued most for his athleticism, defensive court coverage and weak-side shot-blocking. And he could earn situational minutes this season just bringing his explosiveness, play-finishing and disruption off the bench. But wings who can't create or make shots have very limited margin for error, particularly for a team looking to compete for a title right now.

No. 29 Pick: Isaiah Collier, Utah Jazz

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Role: Bench/G League

Usage: Ball-handling spark

Starting the year in the G League makes sense for the No. 29 pick who struggled at USC with shooting and decision-making.

Utah already has three ball-handlers right now in Keyonte George, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, who like Isaiah Collier, are all wired to score first.

An injury or trade could open the door for the rookie to back up George and provide his signature mix of speed, power and creativity off the bench. Playing Collier right away means living with missed jumpers, turnovers and bad fouls. But there's no questioning that he can make things happen with the ball and put pressure on defenses.

No. 30 Pick: Baylor Scheierman, Boston Celtics

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Role: Bench/G League

Usage: Connector

Part of the draw to Baylor Scheierman out of Creighton was his perceived NBA-ready game. He'll be 24 years old to start his pro career, coming off a third consecutive season with at least 80 three-point makes.

There isn't any room for Scheierman in Boston's rotation, so it would make some sense for him to earn reps in the G League.

His skill set does scream plug-and-play, however. And if injuries ever hit the Celtics, they likely wouldn't hesitate to use the rookie's shotmaking, passing IQ and knack for rebounding in a connector role.

   

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