If the regular season ended today, both teams that played in the 2023 World Series would not be in MLB's 2024 postseason picture.

Could Arizona and Texas be among the teams who surge into the playoffs with a strong second half, though?

MLB's current postseason field consists of 12 teams, but since it was expanded from eight to 10 in October 2012, there have been 11 completed seasons, including an All-Star Break.

In one of those 11 seasons (2016), nothing changed. Each of the 10 teams who made that year's postseason was at least tied for a playoff spot during the All-Star Break.

In each of the other 10 years, however, there was at least one change in each league, with a combined total of 27 (out of a possible 114) instances in which a team that ultimately made the playoffs was not in the "if the regular season ended today" postseason bracket at the time of the All-Star Game.

Before any fans of last-place teams get their hopes up, though, let's be sure to note that most of those 27 teams came back from fairly negligible deficits.

Ten were either one game or half a game out of the playoff picture during the break. Only six were more than three games back. And when the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals (7.5 GB) made the biggest of the second-half surges into the playoffs, it certainly didn't hurt that the Padres had a second-half collapse for the history books, going 26-43 after their 53-40 start.

Long story short, recent history says we should expect at least two teams to make it into October despite not quite being in the playoff picture as of Tuesday's midsummer classic, however, we shouldn't expect it to be any of the teams presently at least four games out of a playoff spot.

If anyone can pull off that much of a comeback, though, is it the reigning champs?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona's All-Star Break Standing: 49-48, 7 GB in NL West, 1 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Pitching

Why They Can Get It Done

Barring any setbacks, the cavalry is theoretically coming.

Merrill Kelly hasn't pitched since late April, but he's almost back from his shoulder injury. Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to pitch this season, but he's seemingly on the same road to shoulder/lat recovery as Kelly, potentially returning in early August. And though Jordan Montgomery has had some brutally rough starts this season, he'll be back from his knee injury before either of the other two starting pitchers.

It's frankly a bit of a miracle that the Diamondbacks carried a winning record into the All-Star Break while getting so little out of that trio of pitchers, not getting anything close to a peak year from Zac Gallen (3.87 ERA while also missing four starts) and waiting with bated breath for Corbin Carroll to finally turn a corner—as the reigning NL ROY had just three home runs and a .316 slugging percentage through his first 92 games.

There they sat, though, just one game behind the Mets for that No. 6 seed, second in the majors in total runs scored in spite of Carroll's shortcomings, poised to go on a tear if and when even one of those five key players decides to be worth more than the cumulative 0.9 bWAR they amassed in the first half.

Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson carried them this far, and maybe they can tap back into that 2023 World Series mojo if the starting rotation is finally going to deliver at anything close to the level we were anticipating before the season began.

Houston Astros

Houston's All-Star Break Standing: 50-46, 1 GB in AL West, 3.5 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: First base and maybe a starting pitcher

Why They Can Get It Done

First and foremost, they're the Astros. Over the past seven seasons, they have always found a way to make it into the playoffs and the ALCS.

Even posting a sub-.500 record in 2020 wasn't enough to break their stride.

It just feels like the rest of the league blew a golden opportunity to bury this team at 12-24, and that failing to chop the head off this rattlesnake back then all but ensured it will eventually strike again.

More rationally speaking, Houston has already been the best team in baseball for more than two months.

The Astros entered the All-Star Break having won 38 of their last 60 games, good for the best winning percentage (.633) dating back to May 9.

Yordan Alvarez (.335/.421/.606) has been on fire during that stretch, while Alex Bregman slugged damn near double (.500) what he did in the team's first 36 games (.252). And after a brutal start to the year, Hunter Brown reeling off quality starts in nine of his final 10 appearances of the first half was huge.

On top of that, Kyle Tucker—who was very much in the mix for AL MVP before his shin injury—will presumably be back at some point, and trading for an upgrade at first base (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.??) would be another major boost for a team that has already caught Seattle in the AL West.

The rotation could use some help, too, though that problem figures to be solved internally, with both Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia likely to return from the IL soon.

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City's All-Star Break Standing: 52-45, 7 GB in AL Central, 2 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Bullpen and some hitting

Why They Can Get It Done

With the Royals, we're not asking for a sudden surge so much as a return to the way things were about seven weeks ago.

Remember that?

When what was a 106-loss team one season ago stormed out to a 34-19 start, good for the fourth-best record in the majors?

Since then, they've gone 18-26, which is the fifth-worst record in the majors.

To some extent, it was an inevitable regression. Salvador Perez wasn't going to hit .326/.391/.529 all season long, nor were Brady Singer or Alec Marsh likely to maintain their sub-2.75 ERAs.

Also to some extent, it was a product of a significant uptick in schedule difficulty. Not only were the first 53 games against teams who ended the first half with a .4725 winning percentage compared to the next 44 coming against an average mark of .513, but Kansas City had the luxury of catching both the Astros and the Mets (currently both with winning records) early in the year when they were in shambles.

Unfortunately, what they'll face the rest of the way (.505 winning percentage) is a whole lot closer to what they've struggled with recently than what they dominated earlier in the year.

However, if Bobby Witt Jr. continues to produce like an MVP candidate while Seth Lugo keeps pitching like a Cy Young candidate, that's at least a strong one-two punch. And considering they already traded for Hunter Harvey, it seems they're committed to improving the roster and aiming for a spirited pushback into the postseason picture.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh's All-Star Break Standing: 48-48, 6.5 GB in NL Central, 1.5 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Outfield

Why They Can Get It Done

Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, there's more than one mustachioed ace to like here.

Before Skenes even made his MLB debut, the Pirates already had a solid tandem in the starting rotation in 2023 All-Star Mitch Keller and rookie Jared Jones. The latter unfortunately landed on the IL in early July with a lat strain and is out indefinitely, but at least Marco Gonzales' three-month stint on the shelf came to an end shortly after Jones' injury. He has pitched surprisingly well this season for the Buccos, albeit in just four starts.

Beyond that, the bullpen has been respectable—in between implosions by multiple-star All-Star closers David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman, who have combined for six blown saves and seven losses.

Most of that damage came early in the season, though. Dating back to May 2, the former has a 1.69 ERA and the latter has been...erratically dominant?...with a lot of walks, but eight holds, three saves and a K/9 of nearly 14. Between those two, Colin Holderman and Luis Ortiz, the bullpen could anchor this postseason push.

They're going to need to add some offense, though, and preferably in the outfield, where they have gotten very little from players not named Bryan Reynolds.

Hard to imagine a world where the Pittsburgh Pirates make a blockbuster trade for a player of Luis Robert Jr.'s caliber, but wouldn't that be something?

Put his .804 OPS in center instead of choosing between the lesser of two evils with the Jack Suwinski (.578 OPS) and Michael A. Taylor (.537 OPS) platoon and that's a game-changer.

Too bad it'll never happen. (Prove us wrong, Pirates front office. Please. We triple dog dare you.)

San Diego Padres

San Diego's All-Star Break Standing: 50-49, 7 GB in NL West, 1 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Pitching

Why They Can Get It Done

Though the Padres did get Xander Bogaerts back just before the All-Star Break after seven weeks on the IL, they still have quite a bit of expensive uncertainty.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his femur. Joe Musgrove is just now starting to throw after landing on the IL with elbow inflammation in late May. He'll be out for at least a couple more weeks. And Yu Darvish—who had already been on the IL for more than a month anyway—left the team in early July for an indefinite period of time to attend to an undisclosed personal matter involving his family.

That's three-fifths of the Padres on nine-figure contracts who are great big question marks for the second half.

But maybe they can pull it off anyway?

The remaining schedule is relatively favorable. Even with Bogaerts struggling before he suffered his broken shoulder, this offense has been stout. And even sans Darvish and Musgrove, they at least have a solid trio of starters in Dylan Cease, Michael King and Matt Waldron, plus an All-Star closer in Robert Suarez.

Adding at least one starting pitcher is a must, though.

If that means going to a six-man rotation if and when Darvish and Musgrove both return, so be it. Running Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur out there for 40 percent of the rotation starts seems like a path to the season slipping away.

Shopping for another set-up arm wouldn't hurt, either. Adrián Morejón and Jeremiah Estrada have been impressive, but they had minimal experience prior to this season and the other middle-relief options haven't been good.

This is A.J. Preller, though. If they need a big trade, he'll put it together.

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco's All-Star Break Standing: 47-50, 9 GB in NL West, 3 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Middle infield

Why They Can Get It Done

For starters, the Giants entered the All-Star Break with the easiest remaining schedule in the National League.

From that perspective, things are only going to look better a few days from now, too, after they've played their final game of the season against the Dodgers. (Immediately after that series, begins a stretch of 25 games in which 21 are against teams at least three games below .500.)

Then there's the Blake Snell factor.

Over the course of his career, Snell has a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP prior to July 1, and marks of 2.45 and 1.14, respectively, after the end of June. And in case you missed it, he came back from injury one week before the break and allowed two hits over 12 scoreless innings.

Snell's struggles/injuries for the first three months were a major reason the Giants were six games below .500 a few weeks ago. But if he's getting ready for a second half even remotely on par with what he did for the Padres last season, giddy up.

And speaking of high-salaried starting pitchers who could be worth a whole lot more in the second half than they were in the first, don't forget about Robbie Ray. Fresh off a rehab appearance last Sunday in which he allowed one hit while striking out nine in five innings of work, he could be a huge piece of the puzzle for the next two-plus months.

Beyond that, they're in good shape, but could really shore things up by trading for Bo Bichette or Luis Rengifo.

If the Giants were just one or two teams back in the wild card race, we'd have more confidence in them erasing their three-game deficit. Being tied for sixth place in what is presently an eight-team race for two spots is tough, though. They could go 40-25 in their final 65 games and still fall a bit short.

Texas Rangers

Texas' All-Star Break Standing: 46-50, 5 GB in AL West, 7.5 GB for third wild-card

Biggest Deadline Need(s) to Help Surge: Health

Why They Can Get It Done

We opened this list with a team (Arizona) just waiting for its starting rotation to get healthy, so it'll be a nice bookend on the conversation to finish with the similarly situated Texas Rangers.

The reigning World Series champs entered the All-Star Break in easily the deepest hole of this seven-team bunch. Everyone else is within three games of the postseason picture, but Texas is five games behind Seattle in the AL West—as well as four games behind blazing-hot Houston—and a borderline insurmountable 7.5 games behind Boston in the wild-card picture.

What a stockpile of talent the Rangers are on the verge of getting back, though.

On the position player front, both Josh Jung (wrist) and Evan Carter (back) could/should return by the end of July. A huge boost to the lineup in place of Travis Jankowski (.516 OPS for the year) and Leody Taveras (.567 OPS last two months).

But the rotation is where it gets really fun, with Jacob deGrom (Tommy John surgery), Tyler Mahle (ditto) and Dane Dunning (shoulder) all on the mend.

Of the three, deGrom sure sounds like the furthest away from rejoining the roster, but he has been throwing with no reported setbacks thus far. Might get the other two back by the end of July and deGrom sometime in August.

At that point, anything seems possible, particularly if Marcus Semien (.703 OPS this season; .826 last year) and Adolis García (.682 OPS this season; .836 last year) can find that higher gear in the second half.

They would need to go 44-22 the rest of the way to match their 90-win total from last year, and anything short of that might not be enough to crash the postseason. That's a tough ask, for sure.

However, they do have a pretty forgiving schedule, with nearly 40 percent of those remaining games coming against the hapless White Sox (seven), Angels (seven) and A's (six) and the might-be-headed-for-a-massive-fire-sale Blue Jays (six). Texas also notably has six games against Boston in the first half of August to potentially make things interesting in a hurry.