This is arguably the best time of the entire year in fantasy football. Draft season is just now getting underway. Whether your 2023 campaign ended 11-3 and with a league championship or 3-11 and a last-place finish, it doesn't matter now. Everyone is 0-0 now.

And how the season to come will unfold depends largely on how fantasy football managers fare on draft day.

There's one word in drafts that matters exponentially more than any other as managers draft: value. It's the key to a successful draft. To a successful season. Winning teams load their rosters with players who post more points than their draft-slot cost. Teams stacked with players who fail to justify their draft-day price tags generally don't fare so well.

Now, the Average Draft Position (ADP—essentially a player's draft day price tag) can fluctuate as draft season unfolds. Some will change drastically as we move farther into training camp and then the preseason.

But as things stand, for better or worse, there are players who stand out like sore thumbs. Glaring examples of who (and who not) should be drafted at their current ADP.

They are the most overvalued and undervalued players at each position in fantasy football.

Fantasy Scoring Data courtesy of FF Today

Average Draft Position Data courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Overvalued QB: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

ADP: QB1, 16th Overall

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is the most overvalued quarterback in fantasy football for a couple of reasons.

The first has nothing to do with Allen himself. It has to do with the nature of fantasy football itself. In leagues that start just one quarterback, the "edge" gained by being the first manager to select a quarterback just isn't worth the hole it digs at running back or wide receiver. The drop-off in points per game from the No. 1 signal-caller to the No. 12 one isn't as steep as between the No. 1 and No. 24 running back or No. 1 and No. 36 wide receiver.

And that assumes that the first quarterback drafted actually finishes in that spot—which isn't guaranteed.

Last year, Allen (the No. 1 QB) outscored Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys by four fantasy points per game. But to get those four extra points you have to take Allen in Round 2—almost four full rounds ahead of Prescott.

There's also the matter of significant changes to the Buffalo offense in 2024. Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston. Gabe Davis is in Jacksonville. Sure, replacements were brought in, but the Bills don't have a readily identifiable No. 1 wideout this year. There's no way you can call Allen's passing-game weapons better this year than last.

That puts that much more pressure on Allen to maintain his rushing numbers—to back up last year's 15 rushing touchdowns. And given that 2023 was the first time in six years that Allen had more than 10, that's not especially likely.

If those rushing numbers drop, Allen won't be fantasy's No. 1 quarterback. It's possible he could slide outside the top five.

Undervalued QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: QB9, 61st Overall

Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys is the poster child for patience at the quarterback position on draft day.

In 2023, Prescott was one of three quarterbacks in the league to surpass 4,500 passing yards. Prescott led the National Football League with 36 touchdown passes. He was third in fantasy points at the position. And yet this year, Prescott is barely being drafted inside the top 10 quarterbacks.

That relatively low asking price becomes all the more appealing when you consider Prescott's situation.

The Cowboys have arguably the NFL's best wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb, but the run game is a massive question mark. After a disappointing season as the Cowboys' lead back last year, Tony Pollard is gone. Dallas brought back Ezekiel Elliott, but Zeke's a declining talent who set career lows in rushing yards (642), yards per carry (3.5) and rushing touchdowns (three) last year with the New England Patriots.

The Cowboys could easily be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL this year. And Justin Edwards of 4For4 believes that could mean big things for Prescott once again in 2024.

"A fast-paced, pass-heavy offense should insulate Prescott's fantasy aspirations, even if the run game behind him does a below-average job of helping him matriculate the ball down the field," he said. "It certainly doesn't hurt that he may have the best wide receiver in the league on his team."

Yes, Prescott doesn't do a ton on the ground—242 rushing yards and two scores a year ago. But he's a near lock to at least match his asking price, and top-five numbers for a second straight year aren't an unreasonable expectation.

Overvalued RB: De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

ADP: RB7, 25th Overall

To be clear, this has nothing to do with De'Von Achane's talent. After watching Achane post almost 1,000 total yards on just 130 touches last year and set an NFL record for the most yards per attempt by a running back with 100 carries in a season (7.8), there's no denying that Achane is electrifying with a football in his hands.

But that's the problem. For Achane to put up fantasy numbers, he has to have the ball in his hands. And per Mark Morales-Smith of Fantasy SP, there are numerous reasons to question whether Achane will see the rock enough to justify his ADP.

"The first issue is that he is just 5'9, 188 pounds, and is already coming off a rookie campaign in which he dealt with injuries," he wrote. "His size limits his potential volume and raises his risk of injury. While his upside on a weekly basis may be as high as anyone in the league, he's still unlikely to lead this team in touches and could end up in a full-blown committee. Raheem Mostert should still be viewed as the RB1 as far as touches go, and the team also drafted rookie Jaylen Wright."

Achane played in just 11 games last season. From Week 10 on, he had more games with fewer than 10 carries than contests in which he hit double-digits. Achane's per-touch fantasy upside is as high as any player in the NFL. But there is way too much volatility in his workload to draft him inside the top 10 at his position.

Undervalued RB: Devin Singletary, New York Giants

ADP: RB32, 109th Overall

In recent years, the "Zero RB" draft strategy has gained considerable traction. The strategy is simple—fade running backs early while slamming away at the other positions, especially wide receiver.

In 2024, Devin Singletary of the New York Giants is an ideal "Zero RB" target early in Round 10.

This isn't to say that Singletary is a comparable talent to Saquon Barkley, who left the Giants for Philadelphia in free agency. But Singletary has surpassed 1,000 total yards in three straight seasons and averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career.

Kevin Patra of NFL.com believes that Singletary is on the cusp of the best season of his professional career.

"When given the bulk of the workload in Houston," Patra said, "Singletary impressed, gashing defenses in a Bobby Slowik offense that fit his skill set well. As previously mentioned, had he been the Day 1 starter, he'd have well surpassed the 1,000-yard plateau. With little other competition in New York, Singletary should get most of the carries out of the gate. Singletary was underutilized during his first four career seasons in Buffalo, a fact that became clearer after his performance in Houston—so he should have more tread on his tires than other backs his age. While there are some concerns around his rate of forced missed tackles dipping with more carries, I think volume keeps Singletary above his 2023 numbers and allows him to set new career highs in Brian Daboll's offense."

Singletary finished as RB32 last year—in a season when he didn't have 15 carries until Week 10. With little competition for touches, a healthy Singletary is going to blow past his modest asking price.

Overvalued WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

ADP: WR9, 14th Overall

As with many overvalued fantasy assets, the problem with Marvin Harrison Jr. isn't Harrison. There's a reason that the former Ohio State star was the first non-quarterback drafted. There's nothing Harrison doesn't do at an elite level. Speed. Leaping ability. Route-running. Hands. Harrison is a bigger version of his Hall of Fame father. He would have been the top wideout in the NFL draft in 2022.

He's going to be amazing. But as Andy Hicks wrote at Footballguys, Harrison is being drafted as though it's guaranteed that he will be amazing from Day 1.

"The positioning of Harrison suggests that he is being taken at an almost impossible-to-achieve landing spot for a rookie," Hicks said. "Of course, he could land in the top 10 fantasy receivers, but it doesn't take much to go wrong for a wide receiver to go from top 12 to outside the top 30 fantasy receivers. Everything has to go right in his debut season to achieve this draft spot. Take the guys who have better situations and odds of achieving these outcomes."

Is it possible that Harrison will storm the gates of the NFL ala Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings or Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams? Sure. But drafting him with the expectation that he will is asking for trouble. The Cardinals have an excellent young tight end in Trey McBride, but the rest of the wideout room is—unimposing. Harrison will absolutely be the focus of opposing defenses this year.

Talented though he may be, Harrison is far more likely to finish his first season outside the top 20 at his position than inside the top 10.

Undervalued WR: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

ADP: WR29, 41st Overall

Every year, there are players whose ADP just seemingly makes no sense. This season, Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper is one of those players.

Despite playing for a carousel of quarterbacks over his tenure in Northern Ohio (many of them, um, not good), Cooper has topped 70 catches and 1,100 yards both years. In 2023, the 10-year-veteran set a career high with 1,250 yards.

The folks at Fantasy Pros are flummoxed by Cooper's ADP this summer.

"Cleveland started five quarterbacks last year," they said. "Yet, Amari Cooper was the WR18, averaging more half-PPR fantasy points per game (12.7) than Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr. and Jaylen Waddle. Furthermore, the veteran was outstanding playing with any quarterback besides Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Cooper averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game in the 12 contests he played that Thompson-Robinson didn't start, which would have made him the WR6 on a points-per-game basis. Cooper should get drafted as a WR2, not a WR3 or Flex option, despite the arrival of Jerry Jeudy."

Yes, the Browns brought over Jeudy in a trade with the Denver Broncos. But we're talking about a five-time Pro Bowler who has topped 1,000 receiving yards seven times. In full-PPR scoring formats, Cooper was WR20 last year and WR10 the season before that. Over two seasons in Cleveland, Cooper has been targeted 260 times.

Jeudy or no, Cooper is a steal at his current ADP even if Deshaun Watson's play doesn't improve markedly in 2024. If Watson can come anywhere near his Houston Texans heyday? Cooper could post WR1 numbers with a WR3 asking price.

Picks like that win leagues.

Overvalued TE: Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: TE3, 48th Overall

Not a lot went right for the Arizona Cardinals in 2023, but the emergence of young tight end Trey McBride was a bright spot. In his second season, McBride caught 81 passes for 825 yards and three scores. He finished the season seventh in PPR points among tight ends, but from Week 12 on, he was a top-five option at his position.

Per Eric Williams of Fox Sports, McBride said he expects the Arizona offense to be that much more potent in 2024.

"The sky's the limit for this offense," he said. "There are so many weapons. There are so many different people that can make plays. I'm super excited—Mike Wilson, Marvin [Harrison Jr.], Greg Dortch—all these different weapons. It's going to be cool to see how (offensive coordinator Drew) Petzing uses all of us."

However, all those weapons (which also include veteran wideout Zay Jones) could make it difficult for McBride to make the ascension to elite status that ADP indicates this year.

On the plus side, the Cardinals aren't an especially good team. Bad teams trail a lot. Teams trailing tend to throw the ball.

But that target volume for McBride is going to have to be robust for McBride to justify his asking price in fantasy drafts. McBride is many things, but to this point as a pro, a field-stretcher hasn't been one of them—he's averaged less than 10 yards a catch for his career. He's also found the end zone just four times in two years.

McBride's a talented young player with a bright future. But he isn't a top-three fantasy tight end.

Undervalued TE: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: TE8, 74th Overall

Last season, Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram had the best season of his seven-year career. There wasn't a tight end in the NFL who was targeted more than Engram. Not Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs. Not Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions. Not George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Not anyone.

Engram had 114 catches a year ago—almost 20 more than any tight end in the league. Among AFC tight ends, only Kelce had more receiving yards. And only LaPorta had more PPR fantasy points.

This year, Engram told reporters he wants to take his game to another level, by stretching the field more than he did last year.

"My role was underneath being the security blanket for Trevor [Lawrence] underneath and getting the ball in my hands fast, [yards after the catch], getting up field and moving the chains," Engram said. "I've done that really well and I think the next level for me is to improve that intermediate, deep range. Making more explosive plays, downfield, more touchdowns, being a bigger red zone target. Those are my goals. I think that can take it to a whole other level."

The Jaguars brought in two wide receivers in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas, but they also lost Calvin Ridley. Could Engram's target share dip a bit? Sure. But Lawrence isn't just going to forget that the player who led the team in targets in 2023 is on the field. And a bump in yards per catch could compensate for that dip.

If fantasy managers want a potentially elite fantasy option at tight end without paying retail for it, Engram is the player to target this year.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.