With Euro 2024 and Copa America behind us, the Ballon d'Or picture for this year is starting to look a little clearer.

Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior and a host of others will hope to claim a prize that is currently sitting with Lionel Messi (shock).

How impactful will Spain and Argentina's international victories be? Will an unsung hero be recognized?

Let's look at the state of play.

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10. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich & England

The Harry Kane memes–that of a trophyless Englishman who continually sets incredible personal numbers–are getting harder to ignore. He was sensational in his debut year with Bayern Munich and has a remarkable 51 goals and 14 assists across the board in 2023-24.

However, he was a ghost for England at Euro 2024, with Gareth Southgate's Three Lions reaching the final despite Kane completely slowing down play and moving like a 76-year-old due to a lingering back problem. Kane would likely have been in the top five before the Euros. His chances have gone.

9. Toni Kroos, Real Madrid & Germany

A superb final season from Toni Kroos should see him cement a top-10 place when the final rankings are announced.

The German's decision to retire will grant him some much-deserved goodwill, but it's important not to overlook his contribution to Real Madrid's treble and Germany's best moments of play. There's no doubt he could still dominate for years to come.

8. Phil Foden, Manchester City & England

Like Kane, Phil Foden's performances at the Euros did him no favours. He was lost on the left and, aside from a couple of slick interchanges with Kobbie Mainoo in the semi-final, quiet down the middle.

Southgate's rigidity doesn't work for the man who wracked up 24 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League and Champions League last season. It's easy to forget Foden's stunning, award-winning domestic campaign pushed City to the title over an excellent Arsenal.

7. Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid & France

You have to think Kylian Mbappé will be odds on to win the Ballon d'Or next year. A domestic treble in France isn't enough to capture the votes he needs, but dominating in Spain would.

Mbappé will lead Madrid's frightening new era and will be keen to remind the world he is next in line after Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo's years of dominance. Forget the poor Euros, blighted by that goddamn mask. Mbappé's time is coming.

6. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona & Spain

There's no doubt Lamine Yamal is going to add a ton of awards to his cabinet after being named the Young Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024. Youngest-ever scored? Check. Most assists? Check.

He is brilliant. Composed, tricky and with superb footballing IQ, Yamal's decision-making in big moments is going to push him to the very top. If you didn't know before the Euros, you do now.

The newly turned 17-year-old is a generational talent who has already played a vital role in a historic success for his country. It shouldn't be a case of if he ever wins the Ballon d'Or; it should be a case of how many.

5. Lionel Messi, Inter Miami & Argentina

Reputation and the Copa America win should bring Lionel Messi closer to his ninth Ballon d'Or than many would expect.

He's certainly at a distinct disadvantage these days due to the MLS' lack of quality and season timings contrasting with the European calendar. He's still Lionel Messi, though, and that does count for something when voting is involved.

Leo is still playing a lot of incredible football. His presence has led Argentina to four international trophies and despite slowing down physically, his legendary distribution still proves too much for defences to handle. Make no mistake about it; the current Argentina squad is the best they've ever produced. Old heads like Messi (and let's not forget the retiring Angel Di Maria) have cultivated this.

In some ways, it's incredible Messi can go to America, win the Leagues Cup and still be in the conversation for an individual award of this prestige.

4. Dani Carvajal, Real Madrid & Spain

It's always difficult to win the Ballon d'Or when you're a defender. Fabio Cannavaro was the last man to do it in 2006, and before that, you have to go back to Franz Beckenbauer in 1976. Carvajal isn't as easy on the eye as either of those players. He is a warrior who deserves to be recognized with a high finish, though.

Part of the issue likely stems from the fact Carvajal wasn't really being spoken about until he scored in Real Madrid's Champions League final triumph. A lot of emphasis is put on goals. The veteran full-back's never-say-die attitude and ability to completely neutralise his mark has been a key feature in both Madrid and Spain capturing titles throughout 2024.

Carvajal is one of those players who you'd just love to have on your team. His influence isn't as obvious until he's gone; his winning habit is infectious and his assuredness rubs off on teammates. A super player and sometimes villain who would willingly sacrifice himself to win.

3. Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid & Brazil

Vinicius Junior is a tricky one right now. Before the Copa America, the only two real contenders for the Ballon d'Or appeared to be the Brazilian and his Madrid teammate Jude Bellingham.

Vini grabbed a brace in the 4-1 group win over a disappointing Paraguay side and then Brazil just…fell off. No chance for the 24-year-old to provide a memorable knockout moment to reinforce a Madrid season that saw him score 24 and assist nine across the treble win.

Vinicius' breakneck style of play defined Madrid's season and there are not many players who instill fear like he does in one-on-one battles. He also loves spectacular goals.

A current ranking of third undoubtedly feels harsh and is a great reminder that recency will play a part in the voting. A strong start to next season might well push him to gold.

2. Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid & England

Moments are so important in the Ballon d'Or race.

Jude Bellingham's last-second bicycle kick kept England in the Euros in which they were eventually beaten by Spain in the final. However, it contrasted with a lot of his play in Germany. Bellingham scored two terrific goals throughout the tournament and went missing in other moments.

He was undeniably the best player in the world for the first half of the 2023-24 campaign. Nobody impacted games as decisively. Few take to Madrid as instantly as he has and he's arguably the best young leader in football right now.

Similar to Vinicius, there can't really be any arguments if Bellingham wins–but like his England colleagues, the inability to end years of international hurt will weigh heavy.

1. Rodri, Manchester City & Spain

Rodri is just brilliant. Some will say placing him at number one is reactionary, others will know he's the constant in two of the best teams in the world.

It's always a telling sign when teams formulate entire plans to try and halt a defensive midfielder from dictating a game.

Rodri's ability to find space, distribution, and tackling prowess put him up there with the best ever in this role. The next evolution of Sergio Busquets with added goal-scoring prowess.

It doesn't matter Rodri had to exit the Euro 2024 final due to injury at halftime, nor does it matter if his insane Manchester City winning streak was ended by Mainoo and Manchester United in the FA Cup final.

What matters is he is the best player in the world right now.