A trail of breadcrumbs already dots the basketball landscape, leading us all toward the next big-name NBA trade.
It might happen in a week. It might happen in a few months. All we know for certain is another landscape-shifting swap is coming at some point.
In this era of player empowerment, elites are almost always on the move. Greener pastures can look awfully inviting for in-prime stars who don't have proper win-now support around them. Or perhaps an ill-fitting roster prevents a player from handling the kind of role and posting the kind of numbers they think they could elsewhere.
A number of factors can drive these inevitable trade demands. With offseason activity slowing down, this is a great time to do some tea-leaf reading and predict the next batch of star ballers to request a move.
Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have expressed a desire to keep their core four together and even went the route of putting their money where their mouth is. They already shelled out $150.3 million on an extension with Donovan Mitchell, and they could be cooking up a max extension for Evan Mobley at any moment.
That's the big-picture blueprint for the front office, but do the players involved share that vision? That seems far less certain.
Before Mitchell even got paid, Shams Charania, Joe Vardon and Jason Lloyd of The Athletic reported that a new deal for Mitchell might motivate Darius Garland's representation to "discuss a potential trade with the team's front office." While that conversation seemingly hasn't happened yet, it could presumably pop up any second.
Garland is a 24-year-old whose resume already includes an All-Star selection and a pair of 20-plus-point scoring averages. In the last season he played without Mitchell (2021-22), Garland was one of only three players to average at least 21 points, eight assists and 2.5 three-pointers. For context, the others were Luka Dončić and Trae Young.
Garland potentially has franchise-floor-general type of talent in him, but he can only spread his wings so far while sharing a backcourt with Mitchell, whose 31.4 usage percentage was this past season's seventh-highest. And since both are undersized guards with defensive limitations, it's hard to argue this is the ideal partnership for either one.
The Cavs might want to keep this core intact, but Garland could have reasons for wanting change.
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
The Suns are as all-in as a club can be. They've relinquished control of their next six drafts and laughed in the face of the punishingly restrictive second apron with their historic payroll.
What has all this big-spending and free-wheeling gotten Phoenix so far? A 49-win season followed by a first-round exit followed by trade speculation around Kevin Durant.
That is less than ideal, even with ESPN's Brian Windhorst reporting on Get Up that Durant "to my knowledge, has not asked for a trade." It doesn't take the most imaginative mind to think that request could still be coming.
Sure, the Suns had some injury issues this past season, but that's been a red-flagged concern since they first brought Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal together. Unless Durant is a glass-overflowing kind of optimist, he could easily be worried about more injury obstacles down the road.
Even this core is healthy, though, it might not be good enough to escape the perpetually improving Western Conference, let alone have enough left to knock out whoever escapes the East. Phoenix's roster is top-heavy, defensively limited and lacking versatility on the interior. The Suns seem good-to-really-good, which is a problem when the West may well demand greatness.
There really aren't avenues to materially change this club, so if the plan is simply to play better and stay healthier, plenty of folks could have doubts about that actually working—Durant and his wandering eye included.
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Ingram clearly had big plans for his extension-eligibility this offseason. The Pelicans clearly didn't share his vision.
Ingram entered the summer seeking a four-year, $208 million max extension, per William Guillory of The Athletic. Before skeptics laugh off that desire, just remember Ingram, the No. 2 pick in 2016, is a 26-year-old with an All-Star selection under his belt and a three-year streak of averaging at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists. You don't have to fudge the math much to think his age plus production plus physical tools equals a max payday in this environment.
New Orleans, though, has made it clear time and again it doesn't plan to go that high. It's possible no one does, because if they did, they may have acquired him already.
Still, Ingram clearly holds himself in high regard, and even though the Pelicans are making a business decision (quite possibly the correct one), he could interpret that decision as them not seeing him in the same light. That alone could be reason to want out.
It also might be fair for him to wonder how his numbers would look if he wasn't sharing touches with Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. Or maybe Ingram sees the chance for a reputation lift by getting to a better team and contributing to a higher degree of winning than New Orleans has done.
Remember, Ingram still has a $36 million salary for the 2024-25 season. If he played out the campaign in search of a bigger payday next summer, he certainly wouldn't be the first NBA player to wager on himself like that. He just might need to bounce out of the Big City to make that bet, as his first five years there clearly didn't convince folks he's worth that kind of coin.
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
There are reasons Lauri Markkanen's name keeps buzzing about the rumor mill. Reasons that the skilled 7-footer can surely see for himself.
To be clear, there's nothing to suggest these reasons have convinced Markkanen to seek a trade away from the Jazz yet. In fact, Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune just relayed that "Markkanen truly enjoys living here, with a young family that fits well in Utah's lifestyle and a climate he embraces."
All of that can be true, and Markkanen could still want out for one obvious reason: His timeline isn't the same as the team's. Yes, the Jazz have a lot of young talent coming through the pipeline (and a ton of trade assets to acquire even more), but the 27-year-old could still wonder if anyone of it will level up in time to win at a high level while he's still at his peak.
Markkanen has seven NBA seasons under his belt, and not one of them stretched into the playoffs. He might be running out of patience to experience the postseason, especially since his skills seem so perfectly suited for a win-now situation. He is a three-level scorer with sufficient creativity in his bag, but he'd also be awesome as a second or third option since he doesn't need to dominate touches and can fit different roles on defense.
He could stay, lock in an extension when first eligible on Aug. 6 (and probably on that very day, since he wouldn't be trade-eligible by the deadline if he signed any later) and sort the rest out later, but his list of potential landing spots wouldn't be the same. His $18.4 million salary is a lot easier for win-now teams to fit in their budget than whatever he'd be paid on a renegotiate-and-extend new deal
If he wants to play postseason basketball sooner than later, then he probably needs a ticket out of Salt Lake City.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
Folks have wondered aloud for more than a year if a Trae Young trade request could be coming. Since that speculation started in Dec. 2022, the Hawks have more lottery trips (one) than playoff series (one), traded away Young's supposed co-star in Dejounte Murray and changed both coaches and decision-makers.
What could convince Young that Atlanta remains the best place for him to be? You know, other than a trade market that appears as chilly as his trademark celebration.
If the issue with Young's market is the Hawks' asking price, though, then a trade request could change everything. Atlanta wouldn't have the same leverage to seek out a fortune and might want to avoid having a potentially disgruntled star around its young talent.
With a reasonable trade cost, Young will have suitors. He is way too productive not to. He is already responsible for the second-most seasons with 25-plus points and nine-plus assists in NBA history—and he hasn't turned 26 yet. Yes, he's ball-dominant, limited defensively and owed a fortune, but he puts up elite numbers year after year.
The Hawks, who lottery-jackpotted their way into this year's No. 1 pick and brought in a future-focused package for Murray, seem ready to shift their focus forward. Young can surely sense that and may not want any part of such an organizational shift.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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