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2024 NHL Free Agency: Day 1 Winners and Losers

Adam Gretz

The NHL free-agency signing period opened Monday and the money was flowing in ways we have not really seen in recent offseasons.

Among the biggest moves were Steven Stamkos changing teams, Sam Reinhart staying with the Stanley Cup champions, the Boston Bruins and Seattle Kraken giving out some questionable long-term deals and the Washington Capitals trying to maintain their status as a playoff team.

With most of the big names already off the board, let's take an early look at some winners and losers from Day 1 of the free-agent signing period.

It is important to note that the winners and losers are only looking at moves made on Monday.

Prior moves made as part of draft-day trades (or predraft trades) are not included, and it is important to note there are still a couple of months of the offseason remaining.

Winner: Jake Guentzel

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No matter how you want to look at it Jake Guentzel is, on an individual level, one of the biggest winners of the offseason.

After being one of the best values in the NHL for the past six years, he was able to cash in this offseason with a seven-year, $63 million contract that gives him the largest salary-cap hit of the day, and he still gets to play for a Stanley Cup contender with world-class talent in Tampa Bay.

The Lightning had to make a lot of moves to position themselves for this (trading Mikhail Sergachev and Tanner Jeannot), and also had to cut ties with a franchise icon in Steven Stamkos, but Guentzel might be one of the big free-agent signings that actually works out.

He is one of the best pure goal-scoring wingers in the league, an underrated playmaker and a smart player who knows how to play with great talent.

Great fit, great signing and a great contract for Guentzel.

Loser: Boston Bruins

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The two big moves for the Bruins were signing center Elias Lindholm to a seven-year, $54 million contract and defenseman Nikita Zadorov to a six-year, $30 million contract.

In terms of overall need, you could make a compelling, reasonable argument that the Bruins addressed the positions they needed to address.

They need more help at center if they are going to be a legitimate championship contender.

As good as their overall goals-against numbers were in 2023-24, that number was mostly driven by their outstanding goaltending that masked a lot of defensive shortcomings and a lack of quality depth at the position.

So, in that sense, they did address key needs.

But did they address them in the smartest way?

Even though Lindholm is a good player, they are still lacking the type of game-changing, bona fide top-line center that every Stanley Cup-winning team has to have. There is little to differentiate him from returning centers Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha, who are also good players but not game-changers.

Even worse, they signed him for seven years and $54 million. He is already 30 years old, has probably already played his best hockey, and that is a significant cap investment in a good but not great player.

Zadorov is coming off a great playoff run for the Canucks, which is the type of thing that made him a dangerous free agent to sign. Recency bias, combined with his size and physical play, was always going to make him an overpay candidate on the open market. It was just a matter of which team was going to do it. The Bruins ended up being that team.

They addressed their needs, but I am not sure they are better than they were.

Signing non-stars in free agency to six- or seven-year contracts typically ends badly for the team handing out those contracts.

Winner: Panthers GM Bill Zito

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After building a Stanley Cup champion, Florida Panthers general manager Bill Zito managed to get one of the most significant pieces of that team—Sam Reinhart—to re-sign before hitting the open market. He also got him at what is probably a below-market rate against the cap.

Reinhart and the Panthers agreed to an eight-year, $69 million contract that carries a salary-cap hit of just under $8.7 million per season.

Even if Reinhart never scores 57 goals again—he probably won't—that should still be a favorable deal for the Panthers.

From the moment Reinhart arrived in Florida he has been an outstanding fit and should be, at a minimum, a 30- to 35-goal scorer with Selke-level defensive play.

Keeping a player that good and important to your team, and doing so at less than $9 million per year, is a huge win for Zito and the Panthers.

Loser: Toronto Maple Leafs

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It's really hard to see the vision here in Toronto.

From a defensive standpoint, Chris Tanev (6 years, $4.5 million AAV) should be a nice upgrade in the short-term, but his contract is one that could quickly become an albatross on their cap in the future.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4 years, $3.5 AAV) found a nice role for himself in Florida, but Toronto might be placing too much value on "played a role on a Stanley Cup team" and might end up playing him more than it should given his current skill set.

In other words, the Maple Leafs spent a lot of money on what might be some marginal defensive upgrades, while still having the same scoring depth concerns that have plagued them for so many years in the playoffs.

They also have yet to make any changes to their core.

Maybe they'll address the core and scoring depth at some point later in the offseason, but on Day 1 they look like early losers.

Winner: Predators GM Barry Trotz

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Even when the Nashville Predators were at their best over the years, there was never really anything flashy about them or the way they played. They have had outstanding players, but have never had much in the way of star power.

Through the end of the 2023-24 season, they had just three 40-goal seasons in the entire existence of the franchise.

In one day on Monday they added two 40-goal scorers by signing Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault.

Along with that, they also signed defenseman Brady Skjei to a seven-year, $49 million contract.

The Skjei contract might be an overpay and a long-term risk, but they are getting Stamkos and Marchessault for $8 million per year and $5 million per year, respectively.

The Stamkos contract is for four years and the Marchessault contract is for five years. For as much as an overpay as the Skjei deal might be, those two should be outstanding values and add two potential game-breakers to a strong lineup that was lacking game-breakers. Getting those three for a combined cap hit of $20 million should be pretty good value over the next couple of years.

When Trotz took over as the Predators general manager, he made it very clear he wanted to swing for the fences and bring in talent. He did that here.

Loser: Ottawa Senators

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This is one of those situations where it is important to keep in mind this is just a free-agency Day 1 evaluation and not an entire offseason judgment, because the Linus Ullmark trade with Boston was a shrewd bit of business.

But their moves on Monday leave a little something to be desired, specifically as it relates to trading Jakob Chychrun to Washington and only getting back Nick Jensen and a third-round pick.

Chychrun might not have been a long-term fit, but that is a really underwhelming return for a player coming off a season as good as Chychrun's 2023-24 was and someone who's signed to such a cheap rate for the 2024-25 season.

The $4 million per-year cap hit on a multi-year deal for David Perron also seems like a little much.

Michael Amadio was a strong depth signing, but the Chychrun trade and Perron cap hit are questionable.

Winner: Washington Capitals

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The Capitals have been active this offseason, already adding Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane and Logan Thompson to their roster to overhaul their forward and goaltending depth.

On Monday, they worked on upgrading their defensive depth.

And they did a fantastic job with the addition of Jakob Chychrun in a trade with Ottawa and the signing of Matt Roy in free agency.

The Roy contract is a little pricey at seven years and $5.5 million per season, but he is an outstanding defensive player with some offensive upside and is still under the age of 30.

Chychrun might only be a short-term solution, but his $4.5 million cap hit and offensive production makes him a steal, especially when it only costs them Nick Jensen and a third-round pick.

The Capitals were a very flawed playoff team a year ago, but they have had a really strong offseason to keep them competitive in the remaining years that Alex Ovechkin has left as he chases Wayne Gretzky's goal record.

Loser: Seattle Kraken

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The Seattle Kraken made two gigantic signings Monday, inking defenseman Brandon Montour to a seven-year, $50 million contract, and then adding center Chandler Stephenson on a seven-year, $43 million contract.

A lot of this reeks of desperation.

The Kraken definitely needed to add offensive punch after taking a huge tumble down the goal rankings during the 2023-24 season, but these moves do not seem to be the answer.

Of the two, Montour is the least objectionable of the two. He might not ever be a 70-point scorer again, but he is still a top-four defender who should be a decent upgrade, even if at a bloated salary.

The Stephenson contract is the one that is truly shocking.

He is coming off a down year in Vegas, is going to be 30 years old this season and is far from the difference-maker the Kraken are paying him to be.

When you go into free agency and hand out $14 million per year in contracts, you probably expect to get something more impactful than this.

Winner: Sean Monahan

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What a wild ride it has been for Sean Monahan over the past few years.

As recently as two or three years ago, his career looked like it was trending in the wrong direction and that his days as a productive player were finished. The Flames were so done with him they traded a first-round pick just to get out of his contract.

But then he arrived in Montreal, had a huge bounce-back year, ended up getting traded for a first-round pick and managed to build his value back up to the point where he was able to give a five-year, $25 million contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Nobody saw that coming two or three years ago.

Will it work out for the Blue Jackets? That remains to be seen.

But there is no denying it is a huge win for Monahan.

   

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