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Struggling Big-Name CFB Teams That Need to Capitalize on CFP Expansion

David Kenyon

Every college football season brings a simple reminder: Brand recognition doesn't mean a team will be successful.

The harsher reality is that a well-known program can toil in mediocrity for many years. Poor coaching, subpar recruiting or many other factors may contribute to a proud program dealing with a rough stretch.

Or, you know, a bad decade.

There is good news, however. Expanding the four-team College Football Playoff to 12 qualifiers has created unparalleled access to the championship stage. An ascendant year in 2024 could be perfectly timed for these big-name schools to escape a recent slide.

While "big name" is a bit subjective, each program listed hasn't recorded double-digit wins in any of the last four seasons.

Auburn Tigers

Hugh Freeze Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Gus Malzahn's tenure at Auburn began in 2013 with an impressive run to a national runner-up finish. During his last seven seasons, though, the Tigers were regularly competitive but never elite.

Then, the team stumbled in Bryan Harsin's brief, awkward stay. Auburn mustered a 9-12 record before dismissing him.

Auburn decided to hire Hugh Freeze, whose time at Ole Miss included a controversial ending. No matter your opinion on that choice, Freeze inherited a program that hasn't notched 10-plus wins since 2017. Auburn managed a 6-7 mark in 2023, his debut year.

The good news for Auburn is that, based on the current landscape, the SEC may regularly have about four CFP qualifiers.

The challenge is that, at a minimum, each of Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee and newcomers Oklahoma and Texas clearly hold a better outlook than Auburn right now. Kentucky and Texas A&M have decent arguments, too.

But it could change quickly if Auburn manages a surprise charge into the 2024 or 2025 College Football Playoff.

Florida Gators

Graham Mertz David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Florida is in a troublesome spot. The bigger issue? Knowing what's ahead in 2024, it might get worse.

There is a real possibility that nine of the Gators' 12 opponents will be preseason Top 25 teams. Beyond facing lower-division Samford in nonconference play, Florida takes on in-state foes Miami, UCF and Florida State. This schedule—especially with Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU in November—is simply unrelenting.

Not exactly an inspiring outlook for a program with three straight seven-loss records, huh?

Florida has signed a couple of top-15 classes under Billy Napier, but he might not have an opportunity to develop them beyond 2024 if this season goes anywhere near expected.

The latest win total (over/under) from DraftKings is 4.5.

If that alone doesn't punctuate the Gators' problem, I'm not certain what else you'd need to hear. Florida desperately needs to find itself back on the national stage soon.

Miami Hurricanes

Mario Cristobal James Gilbert/Getty Images

Miami, meanwhile, has a clearer path to renewed relevance because the ACC isn't as strong as the SEC.

On paper, the Hurricanes could make a run in 2024, too. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward is hugely talented, and Miami's offensive personnel is much stronger. The defense was a top-25 unit in 2023 and shouldn't be blamed for several of last season's six losses.

How many times have we watched this movie, though?

Miami has had a single 10-win campaign in the last two decades and finished better than 5-3 in ACC action only twice in the last 10 years. Mario Cristobal enters his third season with a 12-13 record at his alma mater.

Opening the year at Florida is a vital game, along with an October back-to-back at Louisville and home to rival Florida State. But that's potentially as tough as Miami's slate gets in 2024.

This roster's upside, without question, is a CFP trip. If you have to see it to believe it, however, you're not alone.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

Nothing new here for Nebraska, which thought it hired a program savior in alum Scott Frost six years ago. Unfortunately, the Cornhuskers went a disastrous 16-31 under him—and fired him three games into the 2022 campaign instead of dismissing him after 2021.

Still, the latest optimism is well-founded.

Matt Rhule flamed out in the NFL, but he's a proven builder at the college level. While his process takes time, he's reshaped two programs with great success. Landing 5-star quarterback Dylan Raiola should help, too.

That all looks nice on paper, of course. The reality is Nebraska hasn't cracked bowl eligibility since 2016.

There's no guarantee Rhule will propel the Huskers to CFP contention soon, but doing so would elevate the program in a hurry.

Texas A&M Aggies

John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Resources are not an issue for Texas A&M.

But, as many others have learned, financial support does not necessarily lead to wins. Other than the shortened 2020 campaign, the Aggies haven't been truly competitive in the SEC during the last decade.

In addition to 11 consecutive years without a 10-win record overall, the program has a single SEC mark better than 5-3 in that span. More precisely, Jimbo Fisher's six-year tenure included four 4-4 records—the latest of which resulted in his firing and Mike Elko's hiring.

"Patience" is not a popular word in College Station, and Elko rapidly improved Duke in his two seasons. So, expectations aren't exactly low.

Although the SEC is only becoming tougher, navigating the league would send an impactful message from Elko and A&M.

Virginia Tech Hokies

Kyron Drones G Fiume/Getty Images

Virginia Tech ended a run of eight straight 10-win seasons in 2011 and has only reached that number once since then.

However, it sure looks attainable in 2024.

The nonconference slate of Vanderbilt, Marshall, Old Dominion and Rutgers is very favorable. Within the ACC, the Hokies avoid Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State—plus a rotating Notre Dame clash and even solid newcomer SMU.

In other words, Tech's toughest games are seemingly at Miami, home to Clemson and...a trip to Syracuse? Playing at Stanford or Duke?

Brent Pry inherited a mess in 2022 and finished 3-8, improved to 7-6 last season and, per ESPN, returns the most production in the country. Virginia Tech absolutely can contend in the ACC this season, and a fortunate bounce or two could put the Hokies on the periphery of the CFP.

What a jolt that would be for a toiling yet energized program.

Wisconsin Badgers

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Georgia (27) and Oklahoma (25) are the only FBS schools with a longer bowl streak than Wisconsin (22). Plus, the Badgers have appeared in three New Year's Six games during the decade-long CFP era.

Among the teams highlighted in this piece, nobody has been more consistently relevant than UW.

And still, the program has missed the final stage with some (relative) struggles lately. Wisconsin has never claimed a national title—though it could in 1942—or formally played for a crown in the 32-year championship game era. The last two seasons both ended at 7-6, too.

Wisconsin is well-respected, but adding a CFP appearance to its resume would legitimize the Badgers as a potential power.

Recruit ratings via 247Sports.

   

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