There is one word that matters more than any other in fantasy football—five letters that are the key to bringing home a championship: Value.

Winning in fantasy football is all about finding players who outperform their draft slots. Second-round picks who post first-round numbers. Mid-round selections who become weekly starters. Late-round choices or waiver pickups who become surprise stars.

All of those players win leagues.

Of course, there's a flip side to that: Avoiding overvalued players. Few things will sink a season faster than a roster filled with players who fail to meet expectations.

There are no guarantees in fantasy football, but there are warning signs galore that the players listed here are being overdrafted in the early going.

And that's no way to start a summer.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Average Draft Position: QB1; 16th Overall

In fairness, part of the reason Josh Allen is overvalued has nothing to do with Josh Allen.

Taking any quarterback in Round 2 is a bad idea. This is easily the deepest position in fantasy football. Dak Prescott, who ranked third in fantasy points among quarterbacks last year, is available 40 picks later.

The hole fantasy managers dig at running back or wide receiver isn't worth the "edge" teams gain by being the first to draft a signal-caller.

And that assumes Allen maintains his recent fantasy hot streak, which is by no means guaranteed.

Yes, he was first at the position in fantasy points in 2021 and 2023 and second two years ago. Those lofty finishes have been buoyed in a big way by rushing touchdowns—he has 28 touchdowns on the ground the past three years, including a whopping 15 a year ago.

But those 15 scores were more than 2022 and 2021 combined, which makes a repeat this season unlikely. And that could mean trouble.

The 28-year-old's passing numbers were already down a year ago. He failed to hit 30 touchdown passes for the first time since 2019, and his 253.3 passing yards per game were his fewest since that season.

Allen's passing-game weapons are a question, as well. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman.

Samuel is a capable player and Coleman has potential, but the Bills don't appear to have a true No. 1 wideout.

Essentially, you're drafting a player at fantasy's deepest position at his ceiling entering a season in which his passing-game weapons are worse and his rushing touchdown total from a year ago is unsustainable.

Other than that, though, selecting Allen is a great idea.

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Average Draft Position: RB7; 26th Overall

To say De'Von Achane was electrifying as a rookie is an understatement. He averaged a gaudy 7.8 yards per carry and had almost 1,000 total yards in just 130 touches. He also had over 10 yards on a whopping 22 percent of his carries.

But it's not all good news with Achane.

For starters, the 22-year-old missed six games in 2023, reinforcing worries that his 5'9", 188-pound frame isn't built to sustain a featured back workload.

The Miami backfield is also a crowded one. Raheem Mostert, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2023, is still in town. And the team traded a Day 2 pick in 2025 to move up in this year's draft to select Jaylen Wright.

The competition for touches and durability concerns have Dave Richard of CBS Sports out on Achane at cost:

"There's a fear that Miami will utilize multiple running backs every week no matter who is healthy or who is playing well. That means Achane will have to keep his insane efficiency from 2023 to deliver in Fantasy if he doesn't get feature-back reps from week to week. That's not to say he won't have weeks where he'll dominate, but if they come in Dolphins blowouts then they'll be tricky to predict. Guys like this should not be taken in the first three rounds."

Achane was on the field for 50 percent of Miami's snaps just four times in his 11 games last year. If that's the case again this year, fantasy managers will need a second straight year of historic per-touch efficiency to come close to his ADP.

Good luck with that.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

Average Draft Position: WR9; 14th Overall

Let's be clear: Marvin Harrison Jr. is an immensely talented young wide receiver. There's a reason he was the first non-quarterback drafted in 2024. He's big. He's fast. He's refined as a route-runner. He would have been the most NFL-ready wideout in the class of 2023.

And as Cardinals teammate Garrett Williams told reporters, Harrison has been as advertised since arriving in the desert.

"You look at his height and then you look at his movement ability, those two things usually don't match up like that," he said. "So, for him to do it and make everything look so easily, the ball tracking ability, he's everything people said he is."

It's entirely possible Harrison will take a run at Puka Nacua's year-old record for receiving yards by a rookie. He's that good.

But he's still overvalued in fantasy football this year because as talented as the 21-year-old may be, he's being drafted with the expectation that he'll have a historic first season.

It's one of the easiest mistakes to make in fantasy football: Falling prey to the hype and drafting a player at his fantasy ceiling. Harrison is being drafted ahead of a number of more proven options, including long-time fantasy stalwarts like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans.

Is it possible Harrison will be a top-10 fantasy option as a rookie? Yes, but he has to justify the pick at this price point.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

Average Draft Position: TE3; 46th Overall

OK, this isn't piling on the Cardinals.

It's not a huge stretch to say the Redbirds are probably going to finish last in the NFC West, but it can be argued that could be a good thing for the team's passing-game weapons. Teams playing catch-up tend to throw the ball a lot.

Hello, garbage time.

McBride's ADP is born largely of a second-half explosion last season, especially once Kyler Murray was back under center. From Week 12 on last year, the 24-year-old was fourth among all tight ends in PPR fantasy points.

But his draft slot among TEs this year is even higher. And that lofty price tag carries more than a little risk, as Justin Howe of Football Guys noted:

"I'm highly skeptical of McBride's late-season eruption, which smacked of 2019 Tyler Higbee. That's to say, I don't see much reason to expect it again. McBride didn't show much of anything as a 2022 rookie, then lit the world ablaze when the down-bad Cardinals had no other viable weapons. But his underlying metrics didn't improve much, if at all, and the team has now added a pair of target hogs in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. McBride isn't worthless, of course. He looks like a dependable underneath guy capable of breaking tackles - he had more of those than Sam LaPorta last year - and moving the chains. But if he's no more than an unproven Darren Waller type, and we can't project more than 70-700-5 at best, then there's no reason to draft him this high."

This isn't even drafting at ceiling. This is drafting above McBride's likely ceiling.

And that's a terrible use of a fourth-round pick.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

Average Draft Position: QB5; 44th Overall

C.J. Stroud had an outstanding first season with the Houston Texans in 2023.

The Ohio State product completed almost 64 percent of his passes, topped 4,100 passing yards and threw 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. He was the first rookie quarterback ever to produce two top-15 fantasy receivers in terms of PPR points per game.

With Stefon Diggs also now in Houston, expectations are sky-high for Stroud in 2024—so high that he's being drafted ahead of the likes of Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott.

The 22-year-old undoubtedly has upside, but pulling off a top-five fantasy finish would require a spike in production that could be hard for him to pull off, according to Adam Pfeifer of FTN:

"Despite how elite Stroud was throwing the football last year, he still ranked just 11th in fantasy points per game (18.7). That can happen when you don't provide a ton of rushing production on a weekly basis. Stroud ultimately rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns last year, seeing just four percent of Houston's designed rush attempts. He also ranked 17th among quarterbacks in scrambles with 23. Stroud can easily lead the NFL in both passing touchdowns and yards in 2024 but could still finish outside the top-five fantasy signal callers if there isn't a ton of rushing production alongside it."

For all Stroud's talent, his lack of scrambling caps his fantasy ceiling. Top-five fantasy numbers would require truly gaudy passing stats, such as 5,000 yards, 30-plus touchdowns gaudy.

Counting on that to happen is an awfully risky bet.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Average Draft Position: RB8; 31st Overall

Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams was one of fantasy football's biggest values last season: a true league-winner. In many leagues, he wasn't drafted at all. In the ones where he was, it was late.

The 23-year-old exploded for 1,144 yards on the ground in 12 games, averaging a robust five yards per carry. He caught 32 passes, scored 15 touchdowns and finished with more PPR points per game than any running back not named Christian McCaffrey.

This year, there's no discount involved with Williams. If you want him, it will cost a mid-second round pick. And at that price point, he could be as disappointing in 2024 as he was valuable in 2023.

First, there's the fact that a smaller back who missed five games last year already missed some offseason workouts, although head coach Sean McVay downplayed his foot injury.

"It's nothing to worry about," he said. "He'll be ready to go for training camp, but there's a little issue when he was training. And [I'll] kind of just leave it at that. But nothing to be concerned about."

Then there's the matter of the Rams using a Day 2 pick to select Michigan running back Blake Corum. He averaged over 250 carries per season the last two years in Ann Arbor, and while he isn't going to see that kind of work in the pros, he is likely going to eat into Williams' workload in an effort to keep the veteran back healthy.

Best case? Williams is being drafted at his fantasy ceiling; worst case? He becomes a season-killer as Corum seizes his opportunity.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Average Draft Position: WR7; 10th Overall

Uh-oh. Another NFC West double-dip. Folks are going to start thinking I just don't like that division.

That isn't the case, of course. This analyst doesn't dislike Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua any more than he does teammate Kyren Williams. It's all about cost and situation.

Like Williams, Nacua entered the season as a fantasy afterthought. But with Cooper Kupp sidelined much of last year, he exploded. He caught 105 passes, broke a 60-year-old record for receiving yards by a rookie with 1,486 yards and finished sixth at the position in PPR points per game.

Now, fantasy managers appear to be banking on a repeat—Nacua isn't making it out of Round 1 on average.

However, as Michael Salfino noted for The Athletic, banking on a repeat means the assumption that a healthy Kupp isn't going to eat into the 23-year-old's numbers:

"If you make this pick, you're screening yourself aways from Cooper Kupp, currently at pick 29 (WR21). I think these two are tightly grouped. In his final five games of 2023, Kupp was 32-344-4, which is a 108-1,170-14 pace. That's just a giveaway at his ADP. I want Kupp at ADP more than Nacua at his price—there are stack opportunities here, even in redraft, with Matthew Stafford added, too. I think there's a 35-40 percent chance a healthy Kupp outscores a healthy Nacua."

Jared Smola of Draft Sharks shared some numbers that would appear to bolster Salfino's argument:

This isn't to say Nacua's production is going to plummet, but it wasn't that long ago that Kupp led the NFL in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns on the way to being named Offensive Player of the Year.

And at their current ADPs, the veteran is the better value.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Average Draft Position: TE11; 100th Overall

For some time now, David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns has been paid like an elite tight end. But until last year, he hadn't really played like one.

That changed in 2023, with career highs in receptions (81), receiving yards (882), and touchdowns (six) on the way to finishing sixth in PPR points among tight ends.

Per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon-Journal, former Browns great Bernie Kosar sees last year's big numbers as only the beginning for the soon-to-be 28-year-old:

"What David's done with his confidence and self-esteem in the community, hats off to him that he's able to do this. Where he's come on the field with that even more so. A lot of people when he got drafted maybe were down on him, but he was 20 years old.

"A lot of people kind of were on his case back four or five years ago. But a lot of people were supportive of him, and he was supportive of himself, and it was big when he had that confidence and belief. I love what Travis Kelce's doing, but David Njoku's up there as one of the elite tight ends in the game."

The problem is Njoku did the majority of his statistical damage last year with Joe Flacco under center. With Deshaun Watson at quarterback for six of the first nine games last year, he barely ranked inside the top-15 tight ends in PPR points. He found the end zone just twice over that span. Then Watson went down, Flacco took over and Njoku's numbers spiked.

Last year's 123 targets weren't just a career high, they were also just 10 more than Njoku had in 2021 and 2022 combined.

Throw in the arrival of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, and Njoku is more likely to finish outside the top-15 TEs in 2024 than finish inside the top 10.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.