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9 MLB Player and Team Underachievers to Buy Low On

Tim Kelly

In mid-June, there's enough evidence to start drawing conclusions about MVP and World Series candidates during a given MLB season without seeming reactionary.

However, it would be a mistake to assume that, with more than half the season still remaining, anything is set in stone.

Plenty of players are MVP candidates in mid-June and don't end up finishing in the top 10 by the time the season is concluded. The flip side of that is a team like the 2019 Washington Nationals, who won the World Series despite being more than five games under .500 at this time of the season.

With that in mind, here's a look at nine teams or players who haven't gotten off to good starts, but would be wise to bet on while their stock is low.

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

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Over Manny Machado's first five seasons with the Padres, he slashed .275/.345/.495 with an .839 OPS. So, it's jarring to see him hitting .252/.312/.376 with a .688 OPS this year.

While the six-time All-Star hasn't used it as an excuse, he's admitted the right elbow he had surgery on last October has bothered him at times, both in the field—where he didn't play until late April—and at the plate.

As he moves further away from his surgery, Machado feels like a safe bet to heat up at the plate. In fact, it would hardly be a surprise if the 31-year-old is one of the better hitters in the second half of the season.

And the idea of Machado's best being yet to come is a major reason why the Padres seem so well set up to grab one of the three wild-card spots in the National League.

Texas Rangers

Adolis García Megan Briggs/Getty Images

You usually hear about the team that loses the World Series having a hangover, but the defending champion Texas Rangers haven't been particularly inspiring through the first two-and-a-half months of the 2024 campaign.

With that said, there are some clear areas where they should improve as the season goes on:

- Adolis García is hitting .216 with a .689 OPS. He's still delivering power production, as evidenced by his 13 home runs and 40 RBI. But he hit .246 with a .777 OPS between 2021 and 2023, so his track record suggests his overall results should improve as the season progresses.

- None of the trio of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle has thrown a pitch yet this season. Even if only two of them end up being factors in 2024, Bruce Bochy's rotation is going to get a major shot in the arm.

- Third baseman Josh Jung is on a rehab assignment as he works his way back from a right wrist fracture. He had homered twice already in parts of just four games before going down with the injury in April.

Texas general manager Chris Young will have the opportunity to make external improvements in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

However, when you also factor in that catcher Jonah Heim and reliever José Leclerc have struggled, this is a team that could get the largest internal boost of any in the sport as the season goes along.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Between 2021 and 2023, Kevin Gausman's 2.79 FIP and 15.8 WAR were second among all qualified starting pitchers, per FanGraphs. By just about any metric, he was one of the five best starters in the league over that three-season stretch.

This year, the 33-year-old has a 4.00 ERA and 5.14 expected ERA, which isn't what the Blue Jays have come to expect from their ace. But he tossed a complete-game shutout against the Oakland Athletics on June 8, and his 3.39 FIP paints a much rosier picture of how he has pitched overall this year.

It's mildly concerning that his fastball has seen some velocity decrease, as it's gone from 94.7 mph on average in 2023 to 93.8 in 2024. But the pitch value was 17.6 a year ago, as opposed to -2.8 this year.

Losing less than a full mph on your fastball shouldn't account for that drastic a dropoff in the pitch's effectiveness, which leads you to believe Gausman is going to get better results as the season goes on.

Atlanta Braves' Lineup

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Considering how well the Philadelphia Phillies have played in 2024, the Atlanta Braves' streak of six consecutive NL East titles is definitely in danger.

Despite losing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acúna Jr. for the season, this is still a team that should comfortably win one of the three wild-card spots in the NL.

Following some recent struggles, the Braves currently control the senior circuit's top wild-card spot, and that's with a slew of offensive players underperforming.

Perhaps Matt Olson wasn't ever going to top his 54-home run, 139-RBI campaign from a year ago, but the .219 batting average and .716 OPS he entered play with on May 25 is way below what he's going to put up in a typical season.

Not surprisingly, he's seen his batting average rise to .245, with his OPS up to .771 in less than a month since then. Expect his production to skyrocket relative to what he was doing early in the season.

Former NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II and All-Stars Austin Riley and Orlando Arcia are all under .650 in terms of OPS. That simply isn't going to last.

On top of the likelihood that Atlanta gets much better results internally from its lineup, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is likely to adopt a similar approach to the 2021 trade deadline, when he replaced an injured Acúna by acquiring Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario.

He'll be hard-pressed to replicate the success of that trade deadline, but bet against Anthopoulos and the Braves at your peril.

Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs

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Christopher Morel crushed 26 home runs in 388 at-bats for the Chicago Cubs a year ago, which made him a particularly interesting player to discuss in the offseason.

What could this guy do if he got 500 at-bats?

If you're looking for betting advice, don't take the odds on Morel ever winning a batting title (he's hitting .205 this season) or winning a Gold Glove at third base, as he has -8 defensive runs saved and -10 outs above average at the hot corner this season.

However, there's just too much raw power in Morel's bat not to continue to be intrigued by his power potential.

While his season as a whole has been disappointing, the 24-year-old has 13 home runs and 40 RBI. He's also walking at a 12 percent clip this year, as opposed to 8.4 last season.

It probably won't be this year, but the best-case scenario of Morel some day being a 40-plus home run guy is very much alive.

In the meantime, he's probably going to hit near 30 home runs this season. And while there's no overcoming how poorly he's graded out defensively, if he hits for a slightly higher average, he'll have been pretty valuable offensively.

Houston Astros

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With Alex Bregman set to become a free agent after the season and the duo of Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez able to hit the open market after the 2025 season, the Houston Astros are approaching a retool, if not something more drastic.

However, general manager Dana Brown has repeatedly stated that the team has no intention of being sellers at this year's trade deadline. And given the weaknesses of both the Rangers and Seattle Mariners, they probably shouldn't.

Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are at the height of their respective powers, while franchise icon José Altuve continues to be an excellent hitter. If Bregman and/or Chas McCormick get back on track offensively, this will be a lineup capable of competing in October.

Additionally, the Astros have been crushed by injuries in their starting rotation, and underperformances from their top two relievers in Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.

Whether it's likely or not, you can imagine a scenario where a combination of internal corrections and some trade-deadline additions help this team make one last playoff run together.

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Corbin Carroll looked like a budding superstar a year ago, stealing 54 bases and leading the senior circuit with 10 triples, en route to winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and finishing fifth in NL MVP voting.

Of course, he also helped the Diamondbacks to make a Cinderella run to the World Series.

However, the 23-year-old is in the midst of a sophomore slump. He still has an NL-best five triples, but he is hitting just .210 with a meager .601 OPS, which is one of the 10-worst marks among qualified players this season.

Carroll is too gifted to continue to underwhelm to this degree, though. The possibility that he, Jordan Montgomery and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.—among other underperforming D-backs—heat up in a drastic manner might mean the Snakes are, indeed, still alive.

Cincinnati Reds

Elly De La Cruz Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Cincinnati Reds were a trendy playoff pick before the 2024 season. Given they are under .500 in mid-June, it would be fair to say manager David Bell's squad has been a disappointment so far.

With that said, they're still within striking distance in the NL Central and very much in the mix for one of the three wild-card spots in the NL.

There's a lot to like in this starting rotation, particularly if veteran Frankie Montas starts to pitch anything like the young trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott.

Offensively, Elly De La Cruz has been a menace on the basepaths, while offseason signee Jeimer Candelario has rebounded from a slow start.

If president of baseball operations Nick Krall adds a power threat at first base and a DH to complement a lineup that also includes Spencer Steer and Will Benson, Cincinnati should be in the playoff race in the final week of the season.

Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies

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Nick Castellanos spent the entire 2022 season trying to get on track, and it never happened consistently.

So, the Philadelphia Phillies might need to be concerned that 2024 may just be a down year for the 32-year-old, particularly when arguably their biggest current need is right-handed power production.

With that said, Castellanos is a streaky hitter, with last year's postseason results the best example of that. But while that can be a concern when a player is going well, the flip side is that for as dark as things get when he's struggling, he's probably not far off getting locked in.

The two-time All-Star's work ethic can't be questioned, as he regularly does extra hitting work on the field prior to Phillies games. That alone doesn't guarantee he'll heat up, but after posting just a .501 OPS in April, he's got an OPS over .800 through the first half of June.

Adding a right-handed hitting outfielder will have to be a major consideration for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski this summer as the team pursues a World Series.

However, if the Phillies add another right-handed bat and Castellanos reverts to the doubles machine he can be when things are going right, the team with the most wins in the NL will become even scarier.

   

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