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Mets 1B Pete Alonso's Top Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors, Upcoming Free Agency

Zachary D. Rymer

The New York Mets have been on a nice run lately, but it feels like too little, too late to save their season.

So, who's up for a Pete Alonso trade?

This has become a regular discussion in the last year or so, but it could happen in 2024. As Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote on Tuesday, the 29-year-old is "expected to be the biggest power bat traded" ahead of the July 30 deadline.

Alonso has been with the Mets since they drafted him in the second round in 2016, and he has never been itching to get out. So it goes even now, as the slugging first baseman said in late May that he feels like "there's plenty of time for us to make up ground and then also really showcase who we are as a team and what our potential can be."

Though the Mets have won eight out of 12 since May 30, they're still eight games under .500 and their deficit to the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East hasn't budged. FanGraphs gives them only a 15.3 percent chance of making the postseason.

It's therefore fair game to speculate on where Alonso could get traded, but not before we first assess his value.

What Is Alonso's Trade Value?

Pete Alonso Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Despite his stature as a three-time All-Star and the most consistent home run hitter in MLB, Alonso's value isn't as great as one might think.

He's become more of a limited hitter over the last two seasons, batting just .222 and getting on base at a .317 clip. Otherwise, the next time anyone calls him a good defensive first baseman will be the first.

The 29-year-old is also due for free agency at the end of the year, and he still has about $12 million remaining on his $20.5 million salary. Baseball Trade Values has Alonso's surplus value at just $7.5 million. It's not nothing, but it doesn't buy you a blue-chip prospect.

And yet, this is a guy whose 206 home runs since 2019 are the most of any hitter in The Show. It's also a guy who plays under an owner who's shown a willingness to eat cash to get a good return in a trade.

Remember when Steve Cohen OK'd deals of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer last summer? The Mets ate $35 million in both of those trades, and it helped bring back three guys who are now top 100 prospects.

The Mets could otherwise seek to maximize their return by pairing Alonso with other players. They have options in this regard, notably in the sense that he's hardly their only pending free agent to rent out.

Such flexibility could broaden the market for Alonso, but he fits best with teams with open contention windows and a strong need for power.

Without further delay, let's look at his 10 best fits based on how much sense they make as trading partners for the Mets. I've also pitched trades for the top five.

Note: All farm system and prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter, with depth charts courtesy of RosterResource.

10-6: Pirates, Reds, Rangers, Twins, Astros

José Abreu Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

10. Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 32-36, 5th in NL Central

Current First Baseman: Rowdy Tellez

Tellez only has a .558 OPS, so it's hard to justify using him even in a platoon role at this point. Naturally, Alonso would be quite the upgrade as a regular. But even with the Bucs winning more than they're losing in June, a last-place team going so big on a rental is a reach.

9. Cincinnati Reds

Record: 33-35, 3rd in NL Central

Current First Baseman: Spencer Steer

Christian Encarnacion-Strand wasn't doing much hitting even before he fractured his hand, for which surgery is on the table. But as much fun as it is to imagine Alonso at Great American Ball Park, the Reds aren't in an ideal spot to make a big play on a rental either.

8. Texas Rangers

Record: 33-35, 2nd in AL West

Current First Baseman: Nathaniel Lowe

Lowe had a great offensive year in 2022, but it looks like an outlier. The Rangers offense has also been sleepy in general, making an Alonso trade a fun wakeup call to think about. But rather than from without, their big midseason additions figure to come from the injured list.

7. Minnesota Twins

Record: 37-32, 3rd in AL Central

Current First Baseman: Carlos Santana

Santana has mostly been fine at the cold corner, but he could just as easily work at designated hitter in deference to Alonso. With their OPS having fallen 40 points from 2023, the Twins simply need an offensive boost. What they need even more, though, is pitching.

6. Houston Astros

Record: 31-38, 3rd in AL West

Current First Baseman: José Abreu

The Astros tried fixing Abreu with a stint in the minors, but he's only continued to struggle in going 7-for-42 since his return. As such, they should have at least one eye on Alonso. But another should be on their decimated pitching staff, with a third on their luxury-tax standing.

5. Kansas City Royals

Vinnie Pasquantino Harry How/Getty Images

Record: 40-30, 2nd in AL Central

Current First Baseman: Vinnie Pasquantino

The Royals may be fourth in the American League in scoring with an average of 4.87 runs per game, but the foundation underneath looks a little flimsy.

Only Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez really scare anyone, and the Royals are already beginning to regress with runners in scoring position. They batted .311 in those spots through the end of May. They're at .250 so far in June.

Adding a slugger like Alonso would certainly blunt the edge of further regression in that department. And he need not bump Pasquantino, who's a much better defender, from the cold corner.

Rather, Alonso could see more action at DH. It's one of the weaker spots in Kansas City's lineup, having accounted for only a .210 average and a .666 OPS.

Trade Proposal: Kansas City Royals get 1B Pete Alonso, cash; New York Mets get 3B Cayden Wallace (Royals No. 1), LHP Frank Mozzicato (Royals No. 2)

This is a nice, simple proposal that would net the Royals the slugger they need and return their two best prospects to the Mets.

But it's far from perfect for either side. One can imagine the Royals balking at parting with their two best prospects this early in their contention window. And if the Mets are going to pay down some of Alonso's salary, they'd ideally get at least one top-100 type back.

4. San Francisco Giants

Wilmer Flores Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

Record: 34-35, 3rd in NL West

Current First Baseman: Wilmer Flores

With their run differential at minus-27 and their injured list loaded with name-brand players, it's remarkable the Giants have hung in there as well as they have.

The optimist's viewpoint holds that they still have a run in them. And they might if they get more offense. They should otherwise be good on pitching if Blake Snell, Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb make successful returns to the mound sometime soon.

Alonso's power would be mighty useful to this end, as the Giants have gotten only six home runs from first base. Only four teams have gotten fewer.

Plus, they need not look to fill just one need by dealing with the Mets. Per Bowden, they're also on the lookout for a stand-in for the injured Jung Hoo Lee in center field.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get 1B Pete Alonso, CF Harrison Bader; New York Mets get LHP Carson Whisenhunt (Giants No. 3)

Hence why Bader could also come to San Francisco, in this case for a near-MLB-ready lefty who makes the cut as a top-100 type for MLB.com and FanGraphs.

Whisenhunt is a borderline case, though. Reuter obviously doesn't have him as a top-100 guy, which rings about true while he's struggling with a 5.24 ERA at Triple-A.

3. Seattle Mariners

Tyler Locklear Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Record: 40-31, 1st in AL West

Current First Baseman: Tyler Locklear

Where the Mariners are looks good on paper. To not only be in first place in a division that also features the Rangers and Astros, but ahead by 5.5 games? That'll work.

Yet their offense, or general lack thereof, remains the elephant in the room. They're scoring only 3.85 runs per game, a full run lower than the next-lowest team in first place.

Even if Ty France wasn't out with a fractured heel, first base would look like a prime spot for an upgrade. Though its 26.3 strikeout percentage isn't bad relative to the offense's standard of 27.2, it's produced only a .744 OPS and eight homers.

In addition to a hitter, Bowden noted Seattle is also on the hunt for an impact reliever. With Gabe Speier nursing a strained rotator cuff, a left-hander would fit the bill.

Trade Proposal: Seattle Mariners get 1B Pete Alonso, LHP Jake Diekman, cash; New York Mets get 1B Tyler Locklear (Mariners No. 5, MLB No. 100)

This proposal is nothing if not convenient for the Mets, as Locklear could step right into Alonso's vacated shoes in New York. He's not an Alonso-tier slugger, but he does have some pretty good power.

But if this deal feels underwhelming, that's because it kind of is. And given Alonso's limited value and the top-heaviness of Seattle's farm system, it's frankly hard to think of other ways to balance the equation.

2. New York Yankees

Anthony Rizzo Luke Hales/Getty Images

Record: 49-22, 1st in AL East

Current First Baseman: Anthony Rizzo

The Yankees haven't had much trouble scoring runs. Or really any, as they're up to an MLB-leading 359 for the season.

Their lineup nonetheless feels thin. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are obviously amazing, but then you get into a discussion about their next-best hitter that, frankly, doesn't have a satisfactory answer.

Though Gleyber Torres is the bigger disappointment on the right side of the infield, Rizzo has been the bigger offender on offense. His eight home runs only do so much to redeem a .626 OPS, the lowest such mark among Yankees regulars.

All this helps explain why Bowden pondered the Yankees as a possibility for Alonso, though he also noted they could look to deepen their bullpen. That's something the Mets could also help with.

Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Adam Ottavino, cash; New York Mets get RHP Chase Hampton (Yankees No. 4, MLB No. 86)

Ottavino may have a 5.55 ERA, but he would bring an ability to silence right-handed batters to the back end of New York's bullpen. In exchange, the Mets would get a much-needed arm for a farm system more heavy on bats.

Then again, this isn't an opportune time for the Yankees to be parting with prized young pitchers. They recently did so in a big way with the Soto trade, and they're staring down a future with aging versions of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón.

1. Chicago Cubs

Michael Busch Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images

Record: 33-36, 4th in NL Central

Current First Baseman: Michael Busch

The Cubs as a fit for Pete Alonso? Is this Broken Record Day or something?

The North Siders are indeed everyone's first go-to whenever Alonso rumors ramp up, and Bowden wrote in his report they've already "touched base" with the Mets about the slugger.

This would indicate a shortage of faith in Busch, which wouldn't be unfair. He was red-hot in April, but he has since cooled with a .655 OPS in his last 45 games. His struggles mirror that of the Cubs offense, which has averaged 3.5 runs since April 27.

The Cubs are otherwise an obvious candidate to trade for a reliever, and not just any reliever. Rather than an Ottavino or a Diekman, their bullpen needs a proper electrifier for the back end.

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Reed Garrett, cash; New York Mets get OF Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 3, MLB No. 41)

Garrett may be 31 years old, but he's been a revelation for the Mets this year. He's rocking a 36.6 strikeout percentage, tying him for sixth among qualified relievers. He's also under team control through 2029.

It would therefore be worth it for the Cubs to up the ante to get both Alonso and Garrett, and they'd still have six top-100 prospects even after parting with Caissie. As he has big power potential in his own right, he'd be a suitable heir apparent for Alonso.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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