Atlanta's Reynaldo López Greg Fiume/Getty Images

How Are MLB Offseason Winners and Losers Faring So Far?

Kerry Miller

In Major League Baseball, winning the offseason could be a gigantic step on the path to a World Series title.

Alternatively, it can be a false start that makes the regular season even more disappointing when things fall apart.

So, how are this winter's winners and losers looking with summer on the horizon?

Back in mid-March, we assigned report card grades to each of the 30 teams for what they accomplished during the offseason. Four (Dodgers, Royals, Braves and Padres) received either an A or an A-plus, while five (Red Sox, Guardians, Marlins, Angels and A's) were given an F or an F-minus.

Those are nine of the former winners and losers we'll be looking at.

We're also including a "Belated Winners" slide for the Diamondbacks and the Giants, whose offseasons weren't quite complete in mid-March. Arizona was an A-minus before signing Jordan Montgomery, while San Francisco was a B-plus prior to landing Blake Snell. Both would have been an A if we had waited as long to assign those grades as Scott Boras' clients waited to sign in free agency.

Teams are presented in oscillating order of winners and losers.

Offseason Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles' Shohei Ohtani Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Gained: Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, James Paxton

Lost: J.D. Martinez, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Ryan Pepiot, Jonny DeLuca, Michael Busch

Re-signed/Extended: Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Joe Kelly, Jason Heyward, Daniel Hudson

Why Were They Deemed a Winner?

Kind of goes without saying, right? Not only did the Dodgers win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, but they also landed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and traded for Tyler Glasnow, adding maybe the three best players who were available this offseason.

They also took a good chunk of the "savings" from deferring so much of Ohtani's contract and used it to lock up one of the most valuable catchers in the majors for what is almost certain to be the remainder of his career.

The Dodgers were already quite good, but the offseason spending spree made them the preseason favorite to win the World Series

How It's Going?

Mostly fine, and largely because of those three massive acquisitions.

The Dodgers don't have the best record in baseball, which is a bit of a disappointment for what could have been a historically great regular-season team.

Still, it's hard to complain about where they're at.

They are comfortably perched atop the NL West with Ohtani among the top candidates for NL Most Valuable Player, Glasnow among the top candidates for NL Cy Young and Yamamoto among the top candidates for NL Rookie of the Year.

Max Muncy and Bobby Miller should be back from the IL soon. Clayton Kershaw is still expected to return at some point this summer. It'd be great if Gavin Lux or Chris Taylor could start hitting with any degree of regularity, but the Dodgers are still every bit the World Series favorite that they were three months ago.

Offseason Loser: Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles' Mike Trout Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

Gained: Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis Garcia, Jose Cisnero, Adam Cimber, Aaron Hicks

Lost: Shohei Ohtani

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

Why Were They Deemed a Loser?

It was more than just Shohei Ohtani that the Halos lost. Veterans like Aaron Loup, Eduardo Escobar, Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron, Jake Lamb, Mike Moustakas and more are no longer with the Angels after ending the 2023 campaign there.

Losing Ohtani is what made the Angels' offseason basically unsalvageable, though.

Not that they particularly tried to salvage it. Their solution to losing a generational superstar who double-dipped as a designated hitter and a starting pitcher was to sign a whole bunch of relief pitchers. And then the most noteworthy of those acquisitions (Robert Stephenson) underwent Tommy John surgery before throwing a regular-season pitch for the Angels.

How It's Going?

About as poorly as expected.

The Angels aren't "Chicago White Sox" bad, but at no point since Mike Trout injured his knee in late April has it felt like this team had any hope of snapping its streak of eight consecutive losing seasons.

Even the limited bright spots in this season have asterisks on them.

Jo Adell finally hitting 10 home runs in an MLB season for the first time has been a fun story, but the former first-round pick hardly feels like a budding foundational piece with his sub-.200 batting average.

Kevin Pillar has been phenomenal since signing in early May, but the 35-year-old journeyman is even less of a budding foundational piece than Adell.

The two most valuable players on the roster have been LHP Tyler Anderson and IF Luis Rengifo, both of whom are almost certainly headed to the trade block as players slated for free agency after next season.

A better offseason wouldn't have prevented this, but it just doesn't feel like this franchise is going to matter again any time soon.

Offseason Winner: Kansas City Royals

Kansas City's Seth Lugo David Berding/Getty Images

Gained: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, John Schreiber

Lost: Zack Greinke, Edward Olivares

Re-signed/Extended: Bobby Witt Jr.

Why Were They Deemed a Winner?

First, the Royals surrounded Bobby Witt Jr. with enough talent to at least have a puncher's chance at climbing out of last year's 106-loss abyss.

Both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha had solid 2023 campaigns in San Diego's starting rotation and were welcome additions to a staff that was "Cole Ragans or Bust" last year. They also attempted to beef up the bullpen with Will Smith, Chris Stratton and John Schreiber and added a couple of veteran bats in Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier.

It hardly rivals the sheer volume of star power the Dodgers added, but an impressive series of signings for a small-market club.

And then they filled Witt's bank account with many millions of dollars to make him the face of the franchise through at least 2030, possibly 2037.

How It's Going?

Better than even Kansas City could have imagined.

Whether they ultimately make the postseason remains to be seen, but the Royals are legitimately in a horse race with the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central title and would be comfortably in the wild-card picture if the season ended today.

At 41-31, their winning percentage (.569) is 223 points better than where they finished 2023 (.346).

For goodness sake, they could go 16-74 the rest of the way and they'd still end up with a better record than last year.

What's weird, though, is that aside from Lugo, the acquisitions haven't been of much individual help.

Smith almost immediately lost the closer job. Wacha had a few quality starts, but just a 4.24 ERA before landing on the IL with a broken foot. Neither Renfroe nor Frazier is hitting well at all. But Witt has been sensational while the pitching staff as a whole has improved by leaps and bounds for the most surprising contender of them all.

Offseason Loser: Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland's Ben Lively Rich Storry/Getty Images

Gained: Scott Barlow, Ben Lively, Austin Hedges, Carlos Carrasco

Lost: Cal Quantrill, Enyel De Los Santos

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

Why Were They Deemed a Loser?

It's not so much that Cleveland seemed to be actively getting worse this past offseason, but that it wasn't particularly trying to improve after a disappointing 76-86 campaign.

Between 2022-23 Austin Hedges had a .478 OPS and was worth a negative-1.5 bWAR. And that was the only position player they added to a lineup that finished dead last in the majors in home runs last season by a margin of 27 dingers.

It's not like the pitching haul had any more promise, either. Ben Lively had a 5.22 ERA last year. Carlos Carrasco's was 6.80. Even Scott Barlow was coming off the worst ERA of his career (4.37) and took a slight pay cut from what Kansas City gave him in 2023.

Meanwhile, they DFA'd Cal Quantrill to save a few million bucks, putting even more pressure on what is—aside from Lively and Carrasco—a very young pitching staff.

With Detroit and Kansas City both putting in a lot of offseason work to improve their rosters, a fourth-place finish in the AL Central looked like a real possibility for the Guardians.

How It's Going?

Against all odds, Cleveland has become an unstoppable force, nearly leading the majors in runs scored per game.

Steven Kwan went from a light-hitting plus baserunner to a possible batting champ, while David Fry posting one of the best OPS in the majors as a catcher/outfielder utilityman remains just an outrageous, unpredictable development.

As a team, Cleveland has an .858 OPS with runners in scoring position, compared to a .691 mark in those situations one year ago. It's a shame the difference isn't exactly 180 points, because that team-wide ability to come through in the clutch has been a complete 180 from yesteryear.

And oh by the way Lively has a 2.59 ERA and has already set a career high for wins in a single season, while the Guardians bullpen is putting up cumulative numbers—2.26 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.8 K/9—even better than what three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw has accomplished in his career.

We'll see if those four things are sustainable for another three-plus months, but this offseason loser has turned into perhaps the biggest regular season winner.

Belated Winners: Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants

Arizona's Jordan Montgomery Adam Hunger/Getty Images

Arizona's Additions: Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Eugenio Suárez, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk

Arizona's Subtractions: Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham

San Francisco's Additions: Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, Robbie Ray, Tom Murphy

San Francisco's Subtractions: Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood, Jake Junis, John Brebbia, J.D. Davis, Brandon Crawford, Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani

Why Were They Deemed a Winner?

As mentioned in the intro, both of these NL West squads were close to receiving a grade of "A" when our report card grades published in mid-March. Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell signing late in spring training belatedly pushed them both over the top.

Arizona, in particular, had a ton of promise. Fresh off a World Series appearance, there's really no question the roster was in better shape. Replacing Longoria with Suárez should've been a wash, at worst. Same goes for Pederson and Grichuk in Pham's place. And on top of that, they added a pair of ace-level southpaws. They looked like more of a World Series threat in early April of this year than they did in early October of last year.

But the Giants did some serious upgrading, too. Blake Snell was going to pair wonderfully with Logan Webb as one of the best one-two pitching punches in the majors. Matt Chapman's glove at third base and occasional taters at the plate would be a big help. Jorge Soler was perhaps going to produce San Francisco's first 30-homer season since Barry Bonds two decades ago. And Jung Hoo Lee and Jordan Hicks were the wild cards who could really help push this team over the top if they both panned out.

How It's Going?

Not great!

Neither team is anywhere near eliminated from the wild card picture, but most of those additions have turned into subtractions.

Both Snell and Montgomery have been awful since getting their delayed starts to the season.

At least they've pitched, though. We're still waiting on Rodriguez's debut in the desert. And we won't see Lee again in 2024 after he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury crashing into the centerfield wall.

Both Soler and Suárez are struggling to maintain a .200 batting average, making eight figures for sub-replacement level production.

At least Chapman has been solid. So have Hicks and Pederson. But those feel like consolation prizes compared to the hauls these teams should've gotten.

Offseason Loser: Miami Marlins

Miami's Tim Anderson Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Gained: Tim Anderson, Calvin Faucher, Vidal Bruján, Declan Cronin, Nick Gordon, Burch Smith

Lost: Jorge Soler, Garrett Hampson, Matt Moore, Jon Berti, Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery)

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

Why Were They Deemed a Loser?

The Marlins made a handful of acquisitions, but not a single one that made anyone think "Alright, yeah, that's going to make them better in 2024."

Even the $5 million flier they took on Tim Anderson looked like more risk than reward, and with zero chance that the reward would be enough to make up for not having four of the 12 players who led the team in WAR in 2023.

It should also be noted that Jon Berti's departure came two weeks after we had already given the Marlins an F, in a three-team trade where they got back a pair of outfielders who had yet to play at a level higher than Single-A. The veteran infielder ranked seventh on the team in WAR in 2023, and they gave him away for a pair of lottery tickets who aren't even top 20 in their farm system today, per MLB.com.

It'd be one thing to do that as part of embracing a rebuild, but they didn't move any of the trade chips who could have actually done something to help restock the farm system. It was a nonsensical move at the end of an unproductive offseason.

How It's Going?

Oh, this team is bad.

Even worse than anticipated.

Not all bad, mind you.

Ryan Weathers entered the year with a career 5.88 ERA, but he has been one of their most valuable players—though, he recently landed on the IL with a finger strain.

And Otto López has been a pleasant surprise as the primary second baseman since the Marlins traded away Luis Arraez—though, the fact that Miami dealt its best player barely six weeks into the season is a pretty solid representation of how things have gone.

They lost young phenom Eury Pérez to Tommy John surgery right as the season was getting underway. Incessantly injured pitchers Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez are also on the shelf right now. A.J. Puk's attempted conversion from closer to starter went about as poorly as anyone could have imagined. And Anderson has somehow gotten even worse than he was last year.

Offseason Winner: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta's Chris Sale Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

Gained: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic

Lost: Kirby Yates, Eddie Rosario, Collin McHugh, Brad Hand, Kevin Pillar, Nicky Lopez, Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Wright

Re-signed/Extended: Pierce Johnson, Joe Jimenez

Why Were They Deemed a Winner?

Did you ever play the game "Bigger Better"?

Maybe it was called something different where you grew up, but the idea is you start out with something small and insignificant like a paper clip and then you trade and trade and trade some more until you've upgraded to something that's actually pretty cool.

Feels like that's what Atlanta did this offseason.

The Braves made a combined total of nine trades, turning a bunch of guys they were probably never going to use this season into Chris Sale, Jarred Kelenic and Aaron Bummer. (While also signing free agent Reynaldo López to a three-year deal along the way.)

Without getting rid of any of the 13 players who led the team in bWAR in 2023, they added four likely impact players.

Hard to argue with that.

How It's Going?

Atlanta hasn't been nearly as good as it was expected to be.

But, goodness, can you imagine if they hadn't gained those four players?

Outside of maybe Marcell Ozuna, Sale and López have been the two most valuable players on the roster.

Perhaps Kelenic hasn't been as impactful in leftfield as they were hoping, but he has the best OPS among this team's outfield options and he is starting basically every game since Ronald Acuña Jr.'s torn ACL.

Bummer hasn't been anything special in the bullpen, but the southpaw is pitching on a fairly regular basis and has certainly bounced back from his atrocious 2023 campaign (6.79 ERA).

All four have added value and are helping keep Atlanta in the playoff picture in spite of its struggles and injuries.

Offseason Loser: Oakland Athletics

Oakland's Ross Stripling Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Gained: Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Scott Alexander, Trevor Gott, J.D. Davis, Miguel Andujar, Abraham Toro, Trevor Gott, Mitch Spence, Austin Adams, T.J. McFarland

Lost: Tony Kemp, Trevor May, Drew Rucinski, Jesús Aguilar

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

Why Were They Deemed a Loser?

One simple question: Why?

Why did a franchise that is nowhere near the end of a multi-year rebuild sign a 33-year-old pitcher (Alex Wood) to a one-year, $8.5 million deal?

Why did the A's trade for 34-year-old Ross Stripling while agreeing to take on $9.25 million of his salary?

Why did they acquire not one, not two, but three third basemen, each with a price tag of more than $1 million?

And why do they have four relief pitchers in their 30s making at least $1 million each?

In a sport with no salary floor, they shelled out well over $20 million they didn't need to spend on players who can't possibly be part of their long-term plans. Out of everyone they acquired this winter, only Mitch Spence and maybe Abraham Toro will still be around by the time this team might be ready to contend again.

How It's Going?

After surprisingly starting out 17-17, the A's have lost 29 out of 38 games and settled into their rightful place in the AL West basement.

Toro and Spence have been respectable, but no one else they added this past offseason has amounted to so much as half a win above replacement.

In particular, the two highest-paid players have been a mess. Wood and Stripling made a combined total of 20 starts with an ERA of 5.59 before both landing on the IL.

Mason Miller's rise to prominence has been fun, and Brent Rooker hitting quite well for a second consecutive season is going to be a solid trade chip for the A's to use this summer.

However, they are who we thought they were, and they're spending at least 50 percent more than they needed to spend to be this bad.

Offseason Winner: San Diego Padres

San Diego's Dylan Cease Harry How/Getty Images

Gained: Dylan Cease, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito, Enyel De Los Santos, Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Kyle Higashioka, Jeremiah Estrada

Lost: Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Trent Grisham, Scott Barlow, Luis Garcia, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, Steven Wilson

Re-signed/Extended: Jurickson Profar

Why Were They Deemed a Winner?

In hindsight, giving San Diego an "A" might have been a little too generous; an overreaction to the Dylan Cease trade that happened the day before that article published.

All the same, the Padres went into the offseason with the two-pronged goal of slashing payroll while remaining competitive, which they accomplished.

No, their ceiling wasn't as high sans Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, but they had some World Series potential even though their 2024 Opening Day payroll ($164.5 million) was less than two-thirds of what it was one year ago ($248.9 million).

With a starting rotation of Cease, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Michael King and a TBD fifth and a Big Four of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim in the lineup, a second-place finish in the NL West and a trip to the postseason looked like a real possibility.

How It's Going?

Second in the NL West and a playoff berth still looks plenty plausible here, though the biggest contributor has been the offseason move that flew completely below the radar: Bringing back Jurickson Profar on a one-year, $1 million deal. The 31-year-old hasn't been discussed as a possible NL MVP candidate, but he certainly has been the most valuable Padre to date.

Cease and King have also been clutch in the rotation, holding down the fort while Musgrove is suffering through a rare terrible season.

And though closer Robert Suarez is getting all of the attention, rebuilding the bullpen with Enyel De Los Santos, Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Jhony Brito and Jeremiah Estrada has been huge. All five have given the Friars at least 20 innings of mostly solid production.

There's more work to be done ahead of the trade deadline, but the offseason work has panned out so far.

Offseason Loser: Boston Red Sox

Boston's Vaughn Grissom Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Gained: Lucas Giolito, Vaughn Grissom, Tyler O'Neill, Liam Hendriks, Greg Weissert, Cooper Criswell, C.J. Cron, Chase Anderson

Lost: Chris Sale, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo, James Paxton, Adam Duvall, John Schreiber, Corey Kluber, Luis Urias

Re-signed/Extended: Brayan Bello

Why Were They Deemed a Loser?

Boston had one of the worst rotations in the majors last season. Of the eight Red Sox pitchers who made at least seven starts, the best ERA belonged to Brayan Bello at 4.24.

Their grand plan for addressing that problem? Signing Lucas Giolito (4.89 ERA between 2022-23) and trading Chris Sale to Atlanta for an unproven middle infielder (Vaughn Grissom). And then they lost Giolito to a UCL injury in spring training anyway.

On top of that, the Red Sox lost three of the six players who hit at least 10 home runs in 2023—Justin Turner, Adam Duvall and Alex Verdugo—and merely brought in Tyler O'Neill to help plug those holes, content with banking on Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu shouldering a big load as rookies.

After back-to-back seasons finishing in the AL East basement, it didn't look like the third time was going to be the charm here.

How It's Going?

Even with the Sale/Grissom trade looking like an all-time, possibly Jeff Bagwell-level disaster for Boston...

Even with Verdugo supplying more value for the Yankees than O'Neill is for the Red Sox...

Even though O'Neill is the only offseason addition who has been worth so much at 0.3 wins above replacement thus far...

And even though the injury bug has hit this team as hard as any in the big leagues...

Boston is hanging in there, consistently treading water within two games of .500 for over a month at this point.

Abreu and Jarren Duran have been extremely valuable in the outfield, while Tanner Houck slashing his ERA from 5.01 last year to 2.08 this year has been a major development. Throw in Connor Wong inexplicably vying for a batting crown and David Hamilton filling in admirably with Trevor Story out for the year and things have gone better than anticipated.

Whether the Red Sox are a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline remains to be seen. Through 70 games, though, they do at least have a postseason pulse.

   

Read 45 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)