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Every NBA Team's Biggest Fear This Offseason

Greg Swartz

The NBA offseason brings a certain level of hope for all 30 teams, yet some underlying (or even very obvious) fears come with the business of team building as well.

For many, it's the fear of a high-profile player leaving in free agency, especially this season with multiple contenders (Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic) possessing max cap space.

There could be worries about ownership wanting to cut luxury tax with a trade, teams selecting the wrong player at the top of the draft, post-surgery rehabs for key players not going well or a number of other factors that could already put a damper on the 2024-25 season.

These are the biggest fears for every NBA team this summer.

Atlanta Hawks: The 2024 Draft Ends Up Like 2013

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We didn't know who the Cleveland Cavaliers were taking with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft until David Stern made the actual announcement.

This wasn't because of the Cavs' successful attempt at secrecy, but more so the lack of a clear-cut No. 1 pick. We could see history repeat itself in 2024, although hopefully with a better outcome now for the Atlanta Hawks.

Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher and perhaps even some surprise candidates are still on the table for the Hawks to select at No. 1 overall.

Atlanta still has a lot to figure out this summer with the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray backcourt, Saddiq Bey's free agency and a roster that's headed toward the luxury tax next season. Missing on the No. 1 pick and enduring an Anthony Bennett situation should be the team's biggest fear, however.

Boston Celtics: Luxury Tax Concerns Prevent Keeping the Core Together

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The Boston Celtics are knocking on the door of their first NBA championship since 2008, with the entire core all under contract for next season as well.

This roster, already one of the most expensive in the league, is going to sky-rocket in cost if it stays as currently constructed, however.

Jaylen Brown's five-year, $286 million contract begins next season. Jayson Tatum is eligible to sign a five-year, $315 million extension (an average of $63 million per season) this summer, and Derrick White is also extension-eligible.

According to CapSheets.com, Boston's roster and luxury tax payments already project to come in at $252 million next season, with the Celtics clearing the second apron by $5.4 million. This is before Tatum's massive raise kicks in.

Will Boston's ownership group be OK with paying historical amounts of luxury tax for this team to win, or will one of the key players be moved?

Brooklyn Nets: Nic Claxton Leaves in Free Agency

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The Brooklyn Nets haven't been shy about the importance of re-signing starting center Nic Claxton this summer.

"Nic is the No. 1 priority for us, there's no doubt about that," general manager Sean Marks said, via Brian Lewis of the New York Post. "We hope he's a Net for a very long time. We hope we can continue to build around him and build with him and so forth. And it's been fun to watch Nic develop from his days at Georgia coming all the way through here. He's scratched the surface on who he could end up being one day."

Claxton, an unrestricted free agent and one of the best young defensive centers in the NBA, will have a few suitors to choose from.

The Detroit Pistons will have around $65 million in cap space this summer, with Claxton one of the players the franchise could heavily pursue, according to The Athletic's James L. Edwards III.

With no notable cap space to sign a replacement as good, the Nets may have to give Claxton $25 million a year or more on a new deal so they don't lose him for nothing.

Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball Suffers Further Ankle Issues

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The strong play of Brandon Miller as a rookie should give the Charlotte Hornets plenty of optimism heading into the 2024-25 season, although the fear of further ankle injuries to LaMelo Ball still looms over the franchise.

Ball has to be extremely careful with his workouts this summer, trying to find the best course of action to keep him on the court. The 22-year-old is contemplating wearing ankle braces again, something he did during practices before last season.

"I'm going to see over the summer, try some stuff," Ball said of the protective braces, via Steve Reed of the Associated Press.

Ball is still the key to the franchise, which could return to the playoffs next season with good health, a leap from Miller and another piece added through the draft, free agency or a trade.

Chicago Bulls: No Trade Partner for Zach LaVine Is Found

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Trading Zach LaVine is something that the Chicago Bulls and LaVine are both reportedly motivated to do this offseason, although the return for Chicago won't be great.

As K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago writes, "I've reported before what their asking price was—All-Star level talent, first-round picks or both—and my sense is that it has dropped significantly."

Any return for LaVine and his three-year, $138 million contract isn't going to be great.

The expiring contract of Ben Simmons and a draft pick from the Brooklyn Nets? Some role players from the Sacramento Kings? A straight salary dump into the Philadelphia 76ers' cap space?

Not finding a trade partner at all would be bad, but settling for a bad deal may be even worse. The Bulls should go into the season with LaVine and let him rehab his value if no suitable trade can be found.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell Doesn't Sign an Extension

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The Cleveland Cavaliers can begin contract extension discussions with Donovan Mitchell as soon as the Finals are over. What he decides will dictate the rest of Cleveland's offseason.

Mitchell can sign a max extension of $209 million over four years, keeping him with the Cavs through the 2029 season. There's no discussion to be had over money, although Mitchell could make far more if he waits for unrestricted free agency in 2025 ($270 million over five years).

Leaving next summer for nothing in return is the nightmare scenario for the Cavaliers, although Mitchell requesting a trade this offseason would be pretty bad as well.

The Cavs would need to get win-now pieces in return for Mitchell, given that their next five first-round picks are controlled by the Utah Jazz. Rebuilding isn't an option.

Going into next season on an expiring deal would be too risky for the Cavs unless Mitchell gives them some sort of assurance that he'll return and just wants to max out his finances instead.

Dallas Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. Can't Return to Form

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Tim Hardaway Jr. looked like the third-best player on the Dallas Mavericks coming into the season, yet he now finds himself bouncing in and out of Jason Kidd's rotation.

The 32-year-old is averaging just 4.2 points on 37.8 percent shooting overall in his 12.5 postseason minutes per game, failing to see action in four of the Mavericks' last five games. Young wings like Josh Green and Jaden Hardy have passed him over in the rotation.

With one year and $16.2 million remaining on his contract, the Mavs need a healthy and productive Hardaway next season to make it through an ever-improving Western Conference once again.

The vibes are good in Dallas no matter how the Finals end, as Luka Dončić should feel good about where the franchise is headed. Getting the old Hardaway back would be equivalent to a key free-agent signing for the Mavs.

Denver Nuggets: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Leaves in Free Agency

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Winning is expensive, as the Denver Nuggets have come to realize.

Even if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope were to pick up his $15.4 million player option or sign a new contract starting at this figure, the Nuggets project to be a second apron team next season with a $48 million luxury tax payment.

If Denver wants to keep its starting shooting guard, however, Caldwell-Pope may cost even more.

Every team should want a 6'5" wing that knocks down 40.6 percent of his threes, plays strong defense and has been a starter on two title teams over the past five years.

The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers possess max cap space and have a need at shooting guard. The Detroit Pistons will want to add veteran help, and teams like the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will have cap space as well.

If Bruce Brown can get a two-year, $45 million deal to lure him out of Denver, expect offers for Caldwell-Pope to be even stronger.

Detroit Pistons: No Notable Free-Agent Signings

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The Detroit Pistons can get to $68.5 million in cap space this summer, as all of their young core are still under rookie contracts. NBA teams have to fill up 90 percent of the salary cap under the new CBA rules, meaning the Pistons will have a lot of shopping to do this summer.

Despite the opportunity to get paid, what if no big free agents show any interest in the Pistons?

We're not talking LeBron James or Paul George, but rather the quality starters and role players on the market. What if Tobias Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Malik Monk and others aren't interested in taking meetings in Detroit?

Having all of this cap space with a team eager to start winning again and only coming away with players like Derrick Jones Jr. or Haywood Highsmith would be a major disappointment.

Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson Leaves in Free Agency

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Klay Thompson and the Golden State Warriors will likely come to an agreement on a new contract this offseason, although finding a fair number may be difficult.

The Warriors don't have much leverage here. Even if Thompson leaves and Chris Paul's non-guaranteed $30 million contract is waived, Golden State would still be about $3 million over the salary cap unless further roster moves were made. The Warriors would be limited to using the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, not enough to bring in a player of Thompson's caliber.

Thompson can use teams like the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers for leverage, given that both teams will have max cap space and a need on the wing.

A new contract for Thompson will likely fall between $20 million to $30 million per year. The Warriors can't afford to get cheap now.

Houston Rockets: A Panic Trade Is Made

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The Houston Rockets may have the best overall collection of young talent in the NBA. Whether they can all grow to their potential and get paid in Houston is another story.

A trade for a star should be on the table, although the Rockets shouldn't panic into forcing something to happen yet. Every member of the young core is still on their rookie contract for at least one more season.

Should Houston have interest in players like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler and Mikal Bridges if they become available? Of course.

Should they sacrifice multiple players with future All-Star potential for what could be a potential one- or two-year rental? Probably not.

Wanting to speed up this rebuild and make the playoffs next season should be the goal, although simply letting this core grow together for another summer may be enough to get them there.

Indiana Pacers: Pascal Siakam Leaves in Free Agency

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Re-signing Pascal Siakam is really the only thing that has to be done in Indiana this summer. The two-time All-Star is an unrestricted free agent, yet only the Pacers can offer him a full five years and a maximum salary of up to $245 million.

"Obviously, it's a big deal to bring Pascal back," Tyrese Haliburton told reporters. "Just a great addition to our team, and an amazing, amazing player. He knows I'll be texting him nonstop, calling him nonstop. We all would love to have Pascal back, and that's definitely the plan. I can't speak for the man, by any means, but I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure Pascal Siakam is in a Pacer uniform next year."

There's no concern right now that Siakam would leave.

He looked comfortable in Indiana, the Pacers made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, and this team is only going to get better.

Teams like the Detroit Pistons and Philadelphia 76ers could throw max offers at Siakam, but their maximum offer length is only four years.

This deal should get done quickly as the Pacers put the full max on the table.

Los Angeles Clippers: Paul George Leaves in Free Agency

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The Los Angeles Clippers have gone all-in on the Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden trio, a core that could be broken up in free agency this summer.

Both George and Harden are unrestricted free agents, although only one should be viewed as a threat to leave. Harden certainly isn't going to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers, and other max cap space teams like the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic don't make sense given his age (35 in August).

George is the wild card here. The Sixers serve as a perfect fit and can give him a four-year, $213 million max contract. The Clippers have reportedly been unwilling to surpass a three-year, $152.3 million contract for PG13.

Even if George leaves, re-signing Harden for $20 million or more will still have the Clippers over the salary cap. The team would then be left to fill George's spot with the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

We can debate whether running back this veteran group is good enough to win a championship. But for now, it's still the team's best option.

Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James Leaves in Free Agency

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LeBron James may not be able to put a franchise on his back like he's done for most of the past two decades, but the 39-year-old is still the Los Angeles Lakers' best player now approaching his 22nd season.

James choosing to become a free agent and leaving the Lakers with nothing in return would be devastating for a franchise that's been built around the superstar for the past six years. Los Angeles can't undergo a rebuild, either, as the New Orleans Pelicans elected to push the draft pick owed to them by the Lakers to 2025.

If James leaves, the Lakers would only have about $10 million in cap space depending on what D'Angelo Russell does with his player option. Los Angeles could get to $29 million in room with both James and Russell leaving, yet even that won't be enough to land Paul George, Pascal Siakam or any other All-Star-caliber free agent.

The Lakers still need James to have any hope of winning a title next season.

Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant Makes Non-Basketball Headlines

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We can't forget just how special of a player Ja Morant is.

A two-time All-Star, Rookie of the Year and Most Improved Player of the Year winner already at age 24, Morant is still the heartbeat of a Grizzlies team that should be really good again next season.

Unfortunately, a suspension to begin the season and shoulder surgery to end it meant seeing Morant for just nine total games in 2023-24. The Grizzlies went 6-3 in these contests yet plummeted to just 21-52 when he was sidelined.

We want to hear nothing but good news from Morant this offseason, as he's one of the most entertaining players to watch in the NBA.

Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler Requests a Trade

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The Jimmy Butler extension tour is going to be fun to watch this summer (if you're not a Miami Heat fan, of course).

Butler is under contract for one more season at $48.8 million and carries a $52.4 million player option for 2025-26. The Heat can offer him a two-year contract extension worth up to $113 million, something they appear hesitant to do.

Could not getting an extension lead Butler to request a trade?

Teams would be lining up for the 34-year-old, even given his age and recent injury history. Miami has built up an expensive roster around him and would need to find a new alpha to rally around, with few likely becoming available.

Staying with the Heat is what's best for both Butler and Miami. We'll see if money changes that.

Milwaukee Upgrades: No Notable Upgrades Can Be Made

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The Milwaukee Bucks essentially went all-in for Damian Lillard last offseason and have little means to upgrade this summer.

The Bucks don't control their first-round pick from 2025 to 2030, either with selections owed outright to teams or in pick swaps. There's no elite young talent on the roster to move, either.

For better or worse, this may be the roster Milwaukee runs it back with next year. With the Boston Celtics looking like a potential dynasty, the New York Knicks on the rise and the Philadelphia 76ers in the hunt for a third star with max cap space this summer, can the Bucks really afford to not get better?

Milwaukee can agree to trade its first-round pick (No. 23 overall) and will be eligible to part with its 2031 selection. Finding a salary match will be difficult, as core pieces like Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis are the only Bucks players (save for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard) making more than $9.4 million.

Minnesota Timberwolves: A Tax-Trimming Trade Is Made

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The Minnesota Timberwolves could be the most expensive team in all of basketball next season.

With big raises due for Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels, the Wolves are currently projected to be $6.7 million over the second apron, and that's before re-signing Kyle Anderson.

Trading Towns for salary relief in an attempt to dodge the second apron is something the Wolves probably have to consider, unless ownership is cool with a luxury tax bill north of $60 million.

With billionaire Michael Bloomberg now joining the prospective ownership group of Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez (who currently control 40 percent), perhaps Minnesota will keep the core together, regardless of cost.

New Orleans Pelicans: This Roster Runs It Back

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The New Orleans Pelicans are essentially the Upside Down of the NBA world, a roster loaded with wings and no real answer at point guard or center.

Basically, they'll make the ideal trade partner for some team this summer.

The Pelicans simply cannot run this same roster back. The Big Three of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum registered a lowly net rating of minus-3.0 in 1,533 total possessions together (38th percentile, via Cleaning the Glass).

Jonas Valančiūnas is a free agent who doesn't look like a good fit next to Williamson. The Pelicans should use Ingram as trade bait to try to find a three-point shooting center or pass-first point guard and put Trey Murphy III in the starting lineup instead.

New Orleans desperately needs a roster shake-up. Bringing back the same core should be Pelicans fans' biggest fear.

New York Knicks: OG Anunoby Leaves in Free Agency

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The New York Knicks should make re-signing OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein their top priorities, although only one of these players is a need instead of a want.

Anunoby cost the Knicks both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, a trade that was well worth it given the impact that he made. Following his trade to New York, Anunoby had the best swing rating in the entire NBA (plus-23.9 points per 100 possessions), even edging out that of MVP winner Nikola Jokić (plus-23.7).

A new contract is going to be costly. The Knicks shouldn't have to have any max discussions, but a deal that comes in at $35 million or more per year is possible.

A healthy Anunoby takes New York from a good team to a championship contender. Bringing him back is an absolute must.

Oklahoma City Thunder: A Panic Trade Is Made

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A magical season ran out of gas in the Western Conference semifinals, although the Oklahoma City Thunder are still in the best shape of any NBA team when factoring in young talent, future draft picks and current cap space.

There will be the temptation to speed things up, either by chasing a veteran star in free agency or consolidating some of the young pieces on this roster in a trade. There's beauty in continuity and patience, however, two areas OKC should still practice.

No superstar on the trade market would make sense for the Thunder to go all-in for. Kicking the tires on someone like Mikal Bridges would make sense, but guys like Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram would completely change the offensive dynamic of the team and could leave next summer as free agents.

The Thunder need to continue building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren while saving their future draft picks for a blockbuster trade.

Orlando Magic: The 2023 Lottery Picks Don't Develop

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The Orlando Magic are in great position heading into the 2024 offseason, able to open up $66.6 million in cap space and with a young roster that nearly reached the second round of the playoffs.

Orlando's primary concern should be the lack of production from their 2023 draft class. Anthony Black (the No. 6 overall pick) and Jett Howard (No. 11 overall) were both completely left out of the playoff rotation following disappointing rookie seasons.

Black started 33 games this season for the Magic and has the runway to be the team's franchise point guard, yet he averaged just 5.0 points and 1.8 assists while shooting 43.2 percent overall in those starts. There's plenty of time to grow for the 20-year-old, but Orlando is ready to win now.

Howard played 67 total minutes during the regular season, spending 29 games in the G League.

How long can the Magic, a team that just won 47 games, be patient with the development of both?

Philadelphia 76ers: No Third Star is Acquired

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We know the Philadelphia 76ers will be big-game hunting this summer.

After strategically opening up their books with some trades and delaying an extension for Tyrese Maxey, what if no star comes?

LeBron James and Paul George could easily sign new deals to stay in Los Angeles. Pat Riley has already said that the Miami Heat won't trade Jimmy Butler, and the New Orleans Pelicans won't be looking to dump Brandon Ingram just for cap space and draft picks.

The 76ers may have to break this cap space up for role players instead. The team probably doesn't need a third star if Joel Embiid is healthy given the leap that Maxey has made, but this whole build-up to get one will be extremely disappointing if no impact player is acquired.

Phoenix Suns: Kevin Durant Requests a Trade

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The Phoenix Suns are a bit of a mess at the moment.

This could become the most expensive roster in NBA history next season, especially if Royce O'Neale gets a new contract. The Suns are already projected to cost a whopping $328.7 million in salary and luxury tax penalties, yet they failed to win a single playoff game in their first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Phoenix is on its third head coach in 13 months. The draft picks are all gone, with first-rounders still owed to the Brooklyn Nets in 2025, 2027 and 2029. On top of all of this, ESPN's Michael Wilbon said on PTI that "I don't hear great things about the Suns and Kevin Durant."

If Durant wants out, the Suns are really in trouble.

For all that's gone wrong, the 35-year-old is still playing All-NBA-level basketball and was mostly healthy last season (75 games played).

A trade request would be devastating for Phoenix.

Portland Trail Blazers: No Veterans are Traded

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Despite finishing dead last in the Western Conference with 21 wins, the Trail Blazers are currently projected to be in the luxury tax this upcoming season.

Veterans like Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon are combining to make over $50 million and don't fit this team's competitive timeline. The pressure to trade Brogdon should be high, as the veteran guard is entering the final year of his contract.

Keeping this roster as is going into the season would be a mistake.

Portland needs to embrace a youth movement completely, looking to trade Brogdon, Grant or both while getting out of the luxury tax and opening up the full mid-level exception to try to acquire more young talent.

Sacramento Kings: Malik Monk Leaves in Free Agency

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Losing Malik Monk to injury to end the season was a huge blow to the Sacramento Kings, a team that missed the playoffs by a single play-in game.

Re-signing Monk should be the team's top priority after he averaged 15.4 points and 5.1 assists off the bench, taking on more of a playmaker role behind De'Aaron Fox. The Kings can only offer Monk a contract up to $78 million over four years due to early Bird rights, meaning another team with cap space can outbid them.

Losing Monk to a team like the Orlando Magic or Detroit Pistons is entirely possible, as they can offer him far more money, a starting job or both.

The only thing the Kings can do is make their max offer and hope that Monk likes the city of Sacramento. Promising him a starting job over Kevin Huerter could be a recruiting tool as well.

San Antonio Spurs: No Franchise Point Guard is Found

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Having a true point guard was paramount for Victor Wembanyma and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs this past season.

Tre Jones had the fourth-highest swing rating in the entire NBA (plus-14.8), yet he averaged just 10.0 points and 6.2 assists while starting 48 of 77 games.

Imagine if the Spurs were to acquire a player like Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Darius Garland or another All-Star-level point guard to play alongside Wembanyama and others. No offense to Jones, but all would be significant upgrades.

The Spurs need to target a franchise floor general this summer, either via trade, free agency or the draft.

Toronto Raptors: Some Team Gives Immanuel Quickley a Max Deal

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Back in September 2023, one NBA executive warned Sean Deveney of Heavy.com about not getting a contract done with Immanuel Quickley before the season:

"He is going to want nine figures. And that's for four years. I can't say the Knicks will go that high but they might have to. He is not a guy you want to send to restricted free agency."

Here we are nine months later and Quickley is indeed a restricted free agent, with the Toronto Raptors now responsible for finding him a new deal.

After averaging 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists and shooting 39.5 percent from three with the Raptors, Quickley will get paid. Even $25 million per season on a new deal seems reasonable.

What if the Philadelphia 76ers whiff on their primary trade and free-agent targets and still have max cap space to spend? What if the Orlando Magic or Detroit Pistons feel that Quickley would be the perfect addition and have max space as well?

Toronto may be forced to match a substantially higher deal than it originally planned to pay.

Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen Doesn't Want to Renegotiate and Extend His Contract

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Lauri Markkanen will be one of the most prized targets on the trade market if the Utah Jazz make him available, but finding a way to extend his contract should still be the team's first priority.

Markkanen will make $18 million in the final year of his contract. Since players can only sign extensions for up to 140 percent of their current deal, the Jazz could only offer Markkanen a new contract starting around $25 million.

For someone who could get a max deal as an unrestricted free agent in 2025, this isn't going to cut it.

Utah will likely try renegotiating Markkanen's current contract, giving him a raise using their $33.4 million in cap space and then extending off that. The Sacramento Kings did the same thing with Domantas Sabonis last summer.

The Jazz have to hope that Markkanen is open to this idea and does not want to test the free-agent market next summer instead.

Washington Wizards: The No. 2 Overall Pick Doesn't Turn into a Star

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The Washington Wizards desperately need a star.

Bilal Coulibaly could turn into one someday, but he's still pretty raw at age 19. Deni Avdija is coming off the best season of his career, yet he hasn't shown future All-Star potential yet. Johnny Davis, the No. 10 overall pick in 2022, has been a bust through two seasons.

Now armed with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Washington needs someone to build the franchise around and shouldn't be worried about fit.

Whether this be Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan, Reed Sheppard or another top prospect, getting this draft pick right is the most important part of the Wizards' offseason.

   

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