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NBA Starting Lineups Most Likely to Look Different in 2024-25

Grant Hughes

Nothing stays the same for long in the NBA.

Take the two teams that just appeared in the 2024 Finals as prime examples. Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday weren't on the Boston Celtics roster last season, while the Dallas Mavericks added two new starters in February. Tweaks are commonplace among even the best teams, and the further you descend down the league's competitive ladder, the more year-to-year change you're likely to see.

Here, we'll look ahead at the first units that won't resemble their 2023-24 selves when next season kicks off. In some cases, we'll focus on a single starter with especially long odds of returning to his team. In others, we'll highlight situations where multiple players are at least moderate flight risks.

With free agency, trades and the natural churn that replaces aging players with younger ones, change is the only constant.

Milwaukee Bucks

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We begin with an easy one, as the Milwaukee Bucks are all but guaranteed to lose 77-game starter Malik Beasley in free agency.

With a projected $186 million committed to 10 players, the Bucks are going to be a second-apron team barring drastic cost-cutting measures. That means they won't be able to compete with outside offers for Beasley, who came aboard last offseason on a one-year minimum deal.

The most Milwaukee can give Beasley is a salary that starts at $4 million, which won't come anywhere close to what he'll get from other suitors. Coming off a career-best 41.3 percent from beyond the arc, Beasley possesses the high-volume, deep-shooting skill that fits anywhere.

The Orlando Magic stand out as a clean fit, as they have a need for scoring and a defensive infrastructure that could effectively hide Beasley on the other end. The Philadelphia 76ers, like Orlando, have cap space to burn. They can pitch Beasley on the unobstructed looks he'll get when Joel Embiid slings the ball out of all those double-teams he faces.

It's possible Beasley won't be either of those teams' first choice. But even if he only gets a contract offer that suggests he's ticketed for sixth-man duties with Orlando, Philly or any of the other 27 teams that could use him, he'll still be looking at a first-year salary two or three times greater than what Milwaukee can give him.

Beasley bet on himself by signing with Milwaukee on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. Unfortunately for the Bucks, that bet is about to pay off handsomely.

Philadelphia 76ers

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Joel Embiid is the only member of the Philadelphia 76ers' 2023-24 roster who has fully guaranteed, option-free money coming to him next season.

Yes, Tyrese Maxey is a virtual lock to return on a max contract in restricted free agency. But you get the idea: No team has the potential to undergo more offseason change than the blank-slate Sixers.

One could make a case for some continuity. Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr., Nicolas Batum, De'Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield would all have roles on next year's team, but it's difficult to say any of them are locks to return. Even Tobias Harris might make sense if the Sixers could get him back at, say, a little less than half of last year's $39.3 million pay rate. But given the frustration that mounted among fans (and probably the front office) as Harris underperformed on his now-expired contract, Philadelphia might not want the veteran forward back at any price.

The Sixers' enormous $62 million pile of cap space is dwarfed only by their ambition to use it on splashy outside signings or trades. One way or another, huge chunks of that cash will go to players who weren't on last year's roster.

Maybe Philly will circle back to familiar faces after its big business is done, but by then many of the guys we listed may have signed elsewhere.

New Orleans Pelicans

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It's not uncommon for NBA decision-makers to imply change is imminent, but New Orleans Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin practically telegraphed his intention to shake things up.

The money quote, via Mark Puleo and William Guillory of The Athletic: "Whereas in the past we've always erred on the side of continuity, and our takeaway has been, 'Let's see this group healthy,' I think we've seen it enough. I want to be really, really clear: This is not going to be a summer of complacency. It's time to get better."

OK, then! Not much equivocating there, so we'd better decide which of the Pels' starters is likeliest to move.

Jonas Valanciunas is the easy pick, as he's entering unrestricted free agency. Much of the conversation surrounding how to improve the Pelicans in recent seasons has fixated on Valanciunas and his limitations as a floor-spacer, rim-protector and defender in space. So although New Orleans doesn't have the resources to sign a replacement, it remains difficult to imagine the team entering next season with JV back at the 5.

The other strong possibility: Brandon Ingram.

Eligible for an extension ahead of the final year of his contract, Ingram is coming off a brutally disappointing playoff performance and a season in which he continued to look like something less than an ideal fit alongside Zion Williamson. The emergence of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III as better options in that role only adds to the forces pushing Ingram out.

If the Pelicans want to reorganize their rotation and upgrade the center spot, trading Ingram is the clear move.

Portland Trail Blazers

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A dozen players started at least 12 games for the Portland Trail Blazers lat season, and the team's most frequent five-man unit only saw the floor for 234 possessions. Even for a team that traded away a franchise icon and found itself stuck with a bizarre mix of young players and veterans, that's a head-spinning level of lineup chaos.

Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton were the members of the aforementioned 234-possession lineup, and it seems reasonable to guess at least three of them could be playing elsewhere next year.

Brogdon, in addition to carrying an expiring $22.5 million salary into 2024-25, simply won't get minutes ahead of Scoot Henderson or Anfernee Simons. Those two are too valuable to Portland's future to leave languishing on the bench behind an early-30s vet who has no long-term equity with the team.

Grant and Ayton are younger than Brogdon at 30 and 26, respectively, but both project to be more valuable to the Blazers as trade chips than actual contributors on the court.

Uncertainty surrounding Simons is perhaps the best illustration of the change that could be ahead for Portland. Normally, a 25-year-old guard with two straight seasons scoring over 20.0 points per game and a career hit rate of 38.6 percent from deep would be a lock to start. But Simons might ultimately be ticketed for reserve duties behind Henderson and Sharpe, and he's been a staple of the Fake Trade Industrial Complex for months. If you haven't seen a made-up package sending him to the Orlando Magic, you haven't been online.

Los Angeles Lakers

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Urgency attends every Los Angeles Lakers offseason, and there might be even more than usual when it comes to improving the roster now that we know the front office isn't going to get its first choice at head coach.

If Dan Hurley had taken the job, it would have been easier to justify bringing back last year's preferred starting five of D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Now it'll be harder to do that and pitch the idea that 2024-25 will be any better than 2023-24.

Personnel changes seem inevitable.

What's more, James and Russell each have player options and could enter free agency. James' return seems like a foregone conclusion, but Russell's future is hazier. Even if he picks up his $18.7 million option, the Lakers could easily include him in a trade package for a star. And on that point, virtually any deal for a marquee addition would have to involve two or three Lakers heading out for a single large contract in return.

Reaves and Hachimura combine to make just under $30 million in 2024-25 salary, and one imagines both would be goners (plus others and picks) in any high-stakes deal bringing back Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell or another big name.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

   

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