The Miami Marlins broke the ice on this year's trade season when they shipped All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres at the beginning of May, effectively waving the white flag less than two months into the season and announcing they are open for business on the trade market.

Left-hander Jesús Luzardo could be the next notable Marlins player out the door.

"Luzardo to me is the single-most likely player to be traded," MLB insider Ken Rosenthal told ex-MLB catcher and Foul Territory host A.J. Pierzynski on Thursday.

That is about as definitive as it gets with trade speculation, and with contenders always looking for starting pitching help, it's not hard to envision teams lining up to try to swing a deal for the young southpaw.

Ahead we've taken a look at the most likely hypothetical landing spots for Luzardo, but before we dive into that, a quick rundown of his potential trade value.

What Is Luzardo's Trade Value?

When it comes to assessing the trade value of a starting pitcher, it's all about how much club control he has remaining.

The Chicago White Sox netted a bigger return for Dylan Cease than the Milwaukee Brewers did for Corbin Burnes during the offseason, not because Cease is the better pitcher, but because Burnes will be a free agent at the end of the year and Cease is controllable through the 2025 season.

Meanwhile, Luzardo won't reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign.

The 26-year-old was one of baseball's top pitching prospects during his time in the Oakland Athletics system, and while it took him some time to find his footing in the big leagues, he took a significant step forward in 2022 before turning in a legitimate breakout season last year.

He finished 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 208 strikeouts in a career-high 178.2 innings, and with Sandy Alcantara injured, he took the ball for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

He has a 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 51.2 innings so far this season, and he has actually been harder to hit than he was a year ago with his opponent's batting average dropping from .239 to .226.

It took one consensus Top 100 prospect (Drew Thorpe) and two others on the fringe (Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala) along with a controllable MLB reliever (Steven Wilson) for the San Diego Padres to acquire Cease, and a similar package might be in the ballpark of what it will take to acquire Luzardo.

10-6: Mets, Astros, Cardinals, Padres, Cubs

10. New York Mets

Record: 22-33, fourth in NL East

SP ERA: 4.36, 22nd in MLB

The Mets are quickly falling out of contention, but that doesn't mean they won't be active on the trade market with an eye on upgrading the roster for 2025 and beyond. They made a similar forward-looking move at the 2019 trade deadline when they acquired Marcus Stroman despite a sub-.500 record. However, the luxury tax implications this time around are a significant hurdle.

9. Houston Astros

Record: 24-32, third in AL West

SP ERA: 4.82, 27th in MLB

The Astros have some work to do climbing back into contention, and at this point it's more likely they are sellers at the deadline with guys like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez potentially on the move as part of a major retooling. If they do decide to buy, starting pitching will be at the top of their shopping list, and the flawed nature of this year's team should take rental arms off the table.

8. St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 27-27, third in NL Central

SP ERA: 4.26, 20th in MLB

With Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson both signed to one-year deals and Steven Matz playing in the third season of a four-year deal, the Cardinals rotation will be in a state of flux once again this offseason. They have clawed back to a .500 record and could hang around in the wild-card picture, and they have a lot of controllable MLB-ready pieces which is something the Marlins have prioritized in many of their recent trades.

7. San Diego Padres

Record: 30-29, third in NL West

SP ERA: 4.12, 17th in MLB

The Padres rotation is finally at full strength now that Joe Musgrove has returned to join Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, Michael King and Matt Waldron. but a general lack of quality depth behind that group could make them players for Luzardo. The Padres have not been shy about trading away their top prospects, so they should be able to put together a competitive offer if they're interested.

6. Chicago Cubs

Record: 28-28, second in NL Central

SP ERA: 3.47, 7th in MLB

The starting rotation might not look like a pressing need for the Cubs, but there are question marks. Justin Steele has regressed from his terrific 2023 numbers, Kyle Hendricks has been demoted to the bullpen, Jameson Taillon has a long history of injuries and Javier Assad has a 3.85 FIP backing his 2.17 ERA. Another frontline arm to slot alongside Shōta Imanaga could go a long way, and they have the prospect capital to make a big move.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 35-19, second in AL East

SP ERA: 3.03, 3rd in MLB

The Orioles already pulled off one blockbuster deal when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers during the offseason, and their starting rotation has been one of the best in baseball this year.

However, with John Means back on the shelf with a forearm strain and Dean Kremer also sidelined with a triceps injury, their depth is being put to the test.

They have gotten great production from 34-year-old Albert Suárez, while Kyle Bradish has picked up right where he left off last season since returning from a UCL sprain, but adding another top-tier arm to the mix could solidify their push for a title.

Luzardo would also give them a built-in replacement for Burnes if he ends up walking in free agency this summer.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. (No. 99 on B/R Top 100), LHP Cade Povich, IF Connor Norby

The O's have one of baseball's deepest farm systems, and they can put together a tantalizing package of players even without dangling Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo or Heston Kjerstad.

Speedy Enrique Bradfield Jr. was the No. 17 overall pick in last year's draft, left-hander Cade Povich has a 2.35 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 53.2 innings at Triple-A and infielder Connor Norby has an .881 OPS with 25 extra-base hits in 47 game playing alongside him at the top level of the minors.

4. Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 32-23, first in NL Central

SP ERA: 4.04, 16th in MLB

Oh the irony if the Brewers end up trading for a starting pitcher at the deadline just a few months after they shipped ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles ahead of his final year of club control.

That said, there is some logic to the way things have played out, especially for a small-market team that was unlikely to ink Burnes to a long-term extension.

Acquiring Luzardo would not only give the team a second top-tier starter to slot alongside Freddy Peralta in a starting rotation that has leaned on Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson and rookie Robert Gasser after Wade Miley, Joe Ross, DL Hall and Jakob Junis all ended up on the injured list.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Brewers would potentially have a top-of-the-rotation trio of Peralta, Luzardo and a healthy Brandon Woodruff, which potentially stacks up to any top-three starters in baseball.

Trade Proposal: Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

Any major deal the Brewers make will likely have to include either Tyler Black or 2023 first-round pick Brock Wilken as the centerpiece, assuming elite-level pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski and catcher of the future Jeferson Quero are off-limits.

Outfielder Luis Lara and third baseman Eric Bitonti are both teenagers with significant upside, while right-hander Logan Henderson owns a 2.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 99.2 innings of pro ball since going in the fourth round of the 2021 draft.

3. Minnesota Twins

Record: 30-25, third in AL Central

SP ERA: 4.38, 23rd in MLB

The Minnesota Twins lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda from last year's starting rotation but opted against any outside additions to plug those holes, instead turning to a healthy Chris Paddack and an in-house battle for the No. 5 spot.

Rookie Simeon Woods Richardson has stepped forward to stake claim to that fifth spot, but the rotation as a whole has been mediocre behind a strong start to the year from right-hander Joe Ryan.

Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP) and Bailey Ober (4.89 ERA, 4.16 FIP) have both been the victims of some bad luck, while Paddack (4.39 ERA, 4.03 FIP) has held his own as a back-end option, but Luzardo would immediately slot into the No. 2 or No. 3 spot on the staff.

The Twins have built their starting staff almost exclusively through the trade market in recent years, so they are no strangers to turning prospects into rotation pieces.

Trade Proposal: Minnesota Twins get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for OF Gabriel Gonzalez (No. 84 on B/R Top 100), 2B/OF Luke Keaschall, RHP C.J. Culpepper, C/OF Ricardo Olivar

Outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez was just acquired from Seattle during the offseason in the Jorge Polanco deal, and the 20-year-old showed off his offensive ceiling last year when he hit .298/.361/.476 with 23 doubles, 18 home runs and 84 RBI.

Luke Keaschall is hitting .339/.459/.545 with 13 doubles, seven home runs and 14 steals in 46 games between High-A and Double-A to start the year and making a strong case to jump onto Top 100 prospect lists, while C.J. Culpepper and Ricardo Olivar would both potentially jump into the Top 10 on the Marlins prospect list.

2. San Francisco Giants

Record: 29-28, second in NL West

SP ERA: 4.39, 24th in MLB

Logan Webb is a bona fide ace and Jordan Hicks has been one of the best signings of the offseason, but the rest of the San Francisco Giants rotation is a question mark.

Rookie Kyle Harrison has a 4.33 FIP and 1.40 WHIP through 12 starts, Blake Snell has served up a 10.42 ERA with 27 hits, 11 walks and 22 earned runs allowed in 19 innings, and a revolving door of pitchers in the No. 5 starter role has thus far failed to produce a reliable option.

In terms of sheer need, the Giants have a strong case to be No. 1 on this list, and Luzardo would potentially provide what they were expecting to get out of Snell when he was signed to a two-year, $62 million deal during the offseason.

The question is whether the Giants view this team and the near-term outlook as good enough to mortgage prospect pieces for Luzardo.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for 1B Bryce Eldridge (No. 70 on B/R Top 100), LHP Carson Whisenhunt, OF Grant McCray

A two-way standout in high school with legitimate first-round potential on the mound, Bryce Eldridge has now shifted his focus solely to hitting and he has some of the best raw power of any prospect in the minors. The 6'7", 223-pound teenager has a .778 OPS with five home runs and 28 RBI in 32 games as one of the youngest players in the California League.

Left-hander Carson Whisenhunt is off to a rocky start at Triple-A, but he had a terrific 2023 season and is still missing plenty of bats with 62 strikeouts in 40.1 innings, while Grant McCray offers a ton of upside with a 55-power, 70-speed profile.

1. Atlanta Braves

Record: 31-22, second in NL East

SP ERA: 3.52, 8th in MLB

The emergence of Reynaldo López in the Atlanta Braves rotation has been somewhat nullified by the fact that ace Spencer Strider is out for the season following elbow surgery, leaving the No. 5 starter spot as a major question mark.

Prospect Spencer Schwellenbach made his MLB debut on Wednesday, following in the footsteps of Bryce Elder, Darius Vines, Allan Winans, AJ Smith-Shawver and Ray Kerr in taking his turn to try to bring stability to the back of the Atlanta staff.

Elder, an All-Star in 2023, has a 6.46 ERA in 23.2 innings over five starts and he is currently trying to sort things out at the Triple-A level.

The top of the Braves rotation has been terrific, but the revolving door in the fifth spot has shined a light on the unproven nature of their depth, and Luzardo would shore up one of the few glaring holes on the roster.

Trade Proposal: Atlanta Braves get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for RHP Hurston Waldrep (No. 73 on B/R Top 100), RHP JR Ritchie, C Drake Baldwin, RHP Lucas Braun

The big question is whether the No. 5 starter spot will be a priority in the wake of the Ronald Acuña Jr. injury, or if the focus will shift to adding another bat in the outfield. Assuming Adam Duvall gets going at the plate, the outfield hole could take care of itself.

It's also fair to wonder if the Marlins will even entertain the idea of trading Luzardo with his multiple years of remaining club control to a division rival, and on the flip side of that if the Braves would move a top-tier pitching prospect like Hurston Waldrep or Owen Murphy to Miami to get a deal done.

With all of that said, the Braves are in win-now mode and the Marlins have already waved the white flag, so matching up on a deal makes sense. The above proposal is a steep price to pay, especially if Waldrep continues to flash top-of-the-rotation potential, but it gives the Braves a better chance of winning it all in 2024.