Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Ripple Effects of Jaylen Waddle Contract on NFL WR Trade and Extension Talks

Kristopher Knox

Another domino fell in the evolving NFL receiver market on Thursday, as the Miami Dolphins and Jaylen Waddle agreed to a new three-year extension.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the deal is worth $84.8 million with $76 million guaranteed. This will make Waddle the league's fourth-highest-paid receiver in terms of annual value, behind teammate Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown.

St. Brown and Brown received extensions from the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, earlier this offseason.

With three of the league's highest-paid receivers getting new deals over the last few months, the receiver market figures to continue rising moving forward. Let's dive into what Waddle's deal means for other receivers and teams looking to work out new deals.

Keeping Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase Becomes a Massive Challenge for the Bengals

Bengals WR Tee Higgins Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Waddle's extension complicates things for the Cincinnati Bengals in a big way. Tee Higgins is set to play on the franchise tag in 2024, while No. 1 receiver Ja'Marr Chase became extension-eligible this offseason.

Chase may be waiting on other top receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson to sign their extensions so he can become the league's new highest-paid receiver. Higgins is likely seeking the long-term security that the franchise tag won't provide. Both receivers were absent for the start of voluntary organized team activities (OTAs).

Higgins' situation is the most pressing, as he requested a trade back in March. The 25-year-old more recently said that he anticipates playing for the Bengals in 2024, but extensions for Smith and Waddle could cause him to reconsider.

Like Chase, Waddle and Eagles receiver Devonta Smith both became extension-eligible this offseason. They quickly got new deals. Meanwhile, Cincinnati hasn't discussed an extension with Higgins in over a year, according to ESPN's Ben Baby.

Chase may not be thrilled with other first-round receivers from his draft class getting paid before he does, but Higgins could be even more upset about the Bengals dragging their feet in negotiations. At this point, he might feel like Cincinnati doesn't plan to keep him beyond the coming season.

With Chase likely to top the market (at least briefly) that feeling could be accurate. Quarterback Joe Burrow already leads his position in annual earnings, so the Bengals may not be able to afford two top-10 receiver contracts as well.

There's a real chance that the Higgins trade chatter reemerges before the start of the regular season and an even bigger chance that keeping both Chase and Higgins isn't in the cards.

Cincinnati's decision to spend a third-round pick on receiver Jermaine Burton may have been a preemptive pick. Keeping Chase and Higgins long-term was already going to be a challenge. With Smith and Waddle both getting top-10 receiver contracts this offseason, keeping Cincinnati's duo together will become even trickier—if not outright impossible.

Dallas Faces Even More Pressure to Extend Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb Michael Owens/Getty Images

Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb—who had three 1,000-yard campaigns, three Pro Bowl nods and one first-team All-Pro appearance over the past three seasons—has an argument for being the league's highest-paid receiver.

Waddle's contract only further raises the bar for a market topped by A.J. Brown with an annual value of $32 million. Even if Lamb is willing to settle for a top-five contract, he's probably eyeing at least $30 million annually.

The problem for Dallas is that it may have to extend quarterback Dak Prescott before it can even entertain the idea of extending Lamb.

Prescott is entering the final year of his contract, is set to carry a cap hit of $55.5 million and has a no-tag and no-trade clause on his deal. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have only $1.9 million in practical cap space right now.

Theoretically, Dallas could franchise-tag Lamb next offseason and buy time to work out a new contract. However, the price of top pass-catchers isn't going down. The longer the Cowboys wait, the pricier Lamb will become—and the more attractive taking a guaranteed one-year contract and hitting the 2026 market might be for the 25-year-old.

Restructuring the final year of Prescott's contract via an extension could give Dallas a chance to lock up Lamb now. Unfortunately, Jared Goff's recent extension, which is worth $53 million annually, leaves Dallas with little leverage.

There are few good reasons for the 30-year-old Prescott to abandon the opportunity to play out his deal and hit the market in 2025. Quarterback-needy teams do silly things, so Prescott could conceivably top Burrow's deal if there's an open bidding war for his services in free agency next offseason.

With Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love also due extensions, Goff's deal already placed a lot of pressure on the Cowboys. The growing receiver market creates even more pressure because the Cowboys now face the possibility of losing both Prescott and Lamb over the next few years if they don't pay both soon.

49ers May Have to Reconsider Stance on Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Trade

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Steph Chambers/Getty Images

As new receiver deals roll in, the price tag for San Francisco 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk continues to go up. The 26-year-old amassed 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season and is due a new contract in the ballpark of Waddle's.

Paying Aiyuk will be a tall order for San Francisco, which has only $5.1 million in cap space for now and is already projected to be $23.4 million over the cap next offseason.

Like the Bengals, the 49ers have two premier receivers and may not be able to keep both. The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported before the draft that San Francisco spoke with teams about trading either Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel.

The Niners ultimately didn't swing such a deal, but they did use a first-round pick on Florida wideout Ricky Pearsall. They also recently gave restricted free agent Jauan Jennings a two-year extension.

Like Chase and Higgins, Aiyuk wasn't present for the start of OTAs. His holdout could continue into training camp and the preseason, as teammate Nick Bosa's did last offseason. Samuel also staged a holdout that lasted well into the summer and resulted in a long-term deal.

If the 49ers aren't willing to extend Aiyuk, a holdout could potentially go even longer. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t Bleacher Report's Tyler Conway), San Francisco is "open to doing a deal" but "have not progressed enough where things are close."

Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan said during draft weekend that a trade involving Samuel or Aiyuk didn't "seem that likely," according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner. However, San Francisco may have to reassess its stance in the wake of Waddle's deal.

Like Higgins, Aiyuk probably isn't thrilled that three receivers who were drafted the year after he was—St. Brown, Smith and Waddle—have gotten lucrative deals before he has. While Aiyuk may not be seeking a top-of-the-market contract, Waddle's new $28.25 million annual value likely sets his bar.

Given the possibility of an Aiyuk holdout and their overall financial situation, the Niners must strongly consider either trading him or trading Samuel to pave the way for an Aiyuk extension. The alternative might be testing San Francisco's newfound receiver depth this season without getting a sizable trade return.

Vikings Must Extend or Trade Justin Jefferson ASAP

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Waddle's extension may not directly impact Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. The 24-year-old has tallied three Pro Bowls, one first-team All-Pro nod and 5,899 receiving yards in only four seasons.

Jefferson should be seeking a deal that tops Brown's. He is set to play on his fifth-year option and unsurprisingly wasn't present at the start of OTAs.

However, Waddle's deal becomes relevant as it relates to the rest of the receiver landscape. If he's worth more than $28 million annually, what are receivers like Jefferson, Chase and Lamb worth? $33 million? $35 million? More?

Jefferson, Chase and Lamb are all candidates to reset the top of the market, with each successive deal among the three topping the last. Financially, it would behoove the Vikings to lock up Jefferson before either Chase or Lamb put pen to paper.

The alternative is trading Jefferson to a team that will, and it's possible that Minnesota has already considered this route. Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on May 25 that "there was buzz" during the draft that the Vikings wanted to trade up for receiver Malik Nabers and then trade Jefferson.

After missing out on a top receiver prospect, trading Jefferson is probably Minnesota's Plan B. The Vikings must now develop rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, which would be easier with both Jefferson and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison in the fold.

If the Vikings don't extend Jefferson soon, though, they may have no choice but to consider a trade. He had a significant injury for the first time in his career in 2023, and he undoubtedly wants the long-term financial security that he won't get on the fifth-year option. Few would blame Jefferson for refusing to take another snap without a long-term deal in place.

Waddle's deal helps set the standard for second-tier receivers, which in turn should drive up the value of pass-catchers of Jefferson's caliber. The longer the Vikings wait to pay Jefferson, the more expensive he'll become.

If Minnesota does eventually decide to trade Jefferson, it'll lose plenty of leverage if he declares that he isn't playing again without a new contract.

Tyreek Hill's Contract Could Become a Potential Distraction

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Extending Waddle is good for the Dolphins, at least in a vacuum. The 2021 first-round pick has shown that he's an explosive and consistent playmaker, and signing him in a year or two—after the fourth or fifth year of his rookie deal—would undoubtedly be more costly.

Presumably, the new three-year deal will be tacked onto Waddle's rookie contract, meaning his actual annual value over the next five years will be well below $28.3 million. Still, it's "new money" that generates headlines and could catch the attention of Hill.

As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk recently pointed out, Hill's $30 million annual value isn't entirely accurate. The final year of his contract (2026) will carry a base salary of $43.9 million but will include only $11.3 million in dead money. Miami probably won't let Hill play out the final season on that deal.

Essentially, Hill is only under contract for two more seasons. While his 2024 and 2025 cap hits of $31.3 million and $34.2 million, respectively, are still impressive, they could be substantially eclipsed by deals for Chase and Jefferson.

As Florio also pointed out, Hill's comments about wanting an extension could actually mean that he's eager for a raise.

"I want to stay in Miami forever, man. Keep me there," Hill told the Around the Bar podcast earlier this month (h/t Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk).

Hill is 30 years old and technically under contract through 2026, so pleas to "keep" him in Miami feel odd—especially after he declared last year that he planned to retire after the 2025 season.

There's no guarantee that Hill's contract situation will become a distraction for him or the Dolphins. However, as more and more money gets dumped into the receiver market, Hill's interest in playing out his contract could dwindle to the point that it does.

Cap and contract information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.

   

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